Transcript
Page 1: Contribution of land use change models to REDD Process in the Congo Basin

Contribution of land use change models to REDD Process in

the Congo Basin

GLOBAL LANDSCAPES FORUM/WARSAW16TH NOVEMBER 2013

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Martin TADOUM,Deputy Executive Secretary /COMIFAC

Page 2: Contribution of land use change models to REDD Process in the Congo Basin

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Commission des Forêts d’Afrique Centrale

Background

• Congo Basin: 2nd largest tropical rainforest, low deforestation rate

• Strong interest for REDD+ expressed by COMIFAC countries

• Different stages of the development of REDD in the region

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Phase 1 Readiness

Phase 2 Demonstration

activities

Phase 3 Positive incentives

for verified performance

Capacity Development

Partial NFMS

Fully-operational

NFMSEquatorial Guinea

ChadBurundiRwanda

Sao Tome & Principe

Central African Republic

Cameroon

Democratic Republic of Congo

Gabon

Republic of Congo

Current situation on REDD

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One of the current challenges of REDD+ focus on the abilities of countries to define the reference leval and establish a consensual and sustainable MRV system

The adoption of a specific methodology to estimate the Reference level involves important technical ramifications

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REDD Methodological issues

Launch a study on modeling impact of development trajectories by 2030

Commission des Forêts d’Afrique Centrale

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Nat

iona

l for

est

cove

r

South Amazon Basin Europe North America

North East AsiaSouth Asia

Time

Atlantic forest

South East Asia

Oceania

West Africa

Congo BasinHFLD profile

Stage 1: undisturbed/little disturbed forests

Stage 2: forest frontiers(high deforestation)

Stage 3: forest mosaic with stabilized cover (low deforestation)

Stage 4: increasing forest coverthrough afforestation and

reforestation

Forest transition curve

Annual deforestation/forest degradation rates 1990-2000 and 2000-2005

Source: Authors, derived from de Wasseige et al. , 2012

Interest of the study

Congo Basin countries may be entering the second stage, with

accelerated forest losses.

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.0900000000000001

0.05

0.17

0.0900000000000001 1990-2000

2000-2005

Commission des Forêts d’Afrique Centrale

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Development of Congobiom model and its application

Congobiom is an economic model for the Congo Basin, derived from GLOBIOM developed by IIASA

This modelling tool can strengthen the better understanding of the potentiel future trends of deforestation in the Congo Bassin by

Providing a depth analysis of the major drivers of deforestation for the next decades in the countries of the Congo Basin by analyzing internal pressures (population growth, development needs, etc…) but also external pressures (commodity prices for example)

Commission des Forêts d’Afrique Centrale

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Development of Congobiom model and its applications (cont.)

providing the countries and their decision makers with scientifically sound analytical tools that can help them better understand how the development of economic sectors can affect the forest cover and how the impact of policy choices made by governments can affect forest cover and income that could be generated through REDD +

Modelling could be a support planning decision tool

Commission des Forêts d’Afrique Centrale

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• Congobiom is now extended to all 10 countries of COMIFAC and should then be refined

• Training of national experts from the pilot countries for REDD-PAC project is ongoing

• The development of a national model in each pilot countries by the end of December is one of the resolution set at the regional worshop for the REDD-PAC project in October.

Current phase of the Project and next steps in the Congo Basin

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Commission des Forêts d’Afrique Centrale

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Thank You

Tél : (+237) 22 21 35 11 (+237) 22 21 35 12 Fax: (+237) 22 20 48 03 BP. 20818 Yaoundé Cameroun Email : [email protected] - [email protected] Site web : www.comifac.org

Une dimension régionale pour la conservation et la gestion durable des écosystèmes forestiers

COMMISSION DES FORETS D’AFRIQUE CENTRALE


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