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Consumer IndexCentral and Eastern Europe

Q1 2010

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© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel

Welcome to the Q1 2010 edition of Consumer Index. We hope you find it interesting. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or comments.



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Consumer Index

MAT Q1 10 vs. MAT Q1 09Q1 10 vs. Q4 09

Total FMCG Trends % value changes

EU (27 countries)

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

-30

-35

2.9 2.8

13.6

-5.5

-1.7 -3.3

UKRAINE

4.2

-8.7

-0.6 -6.9

-1.8 -12.8

10.8

-3.4

-15.9-10.4

1.7

-2.7

10.9

-3.8

CZECH REPUBLIC

CROATIA

SERBIA BULGARIA

ROMANIA

RUSSIA

SLOVAKIA

POLAND

BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA

Consumer Confidence

Central and Eastern Europe

Total Europe – Shopping Behaviour

Trade Channel and Category Trends•Bosnia•Bulgaria•Croatia•Czech Republic•Poland•Romania•Russia•Serbia•Slovakia•Ukraine•Definitions•Sources and methodology

p.2-3

p.4p.5p.6p.7p.8p.9p.10p.11p.12p.13p.14p.15

Contents



Consumer Index



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Overview of Trends

Fresh Food

Chilled Food

Packaged Grocery

Frozen Food

Alcohol

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

Home Care

Pet Food

Czech Republic Russia Slovakia

FMCG Consumer Dashboard% Value Change Q1 2010 vs Q1 2009

Bosnia & Herzegovina Bulgaria Poland RomaniaCroatia Serbia

Increase of more than 0.5%

Increase/decrease of 0.5% or less

Decrease of more than 0.5%

Category not covered

Ukraine

•FMCG value has increased in Q1 2010 across the majority of countries in the region (Czech, Poland, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Ukraine). •Within the Czech Republic households are increasing in home consumption as a result of the economic situation in the country, with Fresh Foods, Alcohol and Pet Foods the fastest growing categories. Frozen Food and Personal Care are the only two categories to experience value decline. •The impact of the early Easter can also be seen, affecting buying behaviour. In Poland, FMCG value increase is driven by an increase in purchases per household across all categories. In Russia the only category failing to note an increase in value terms was Soft Drinks, with Chilled, Frozen and Fresh foods all with strong performances in this period. •In Serbia Household Care and Frozen Food both reported strong growth in a difficult economic context of high unemployment, frozen or reduced salaries and declining purchasing power. In Bulgaria a similar economic scenario has already led to FMCG decline. Home Care and Personal Care are both falling in value terms, despite an increase in volume, as households switch to cheaper products. Alcohol in Bulgaria has experienced growth in both volume and value whilst Soft Drinks have declined! •Private Label continues to grow across the region. In Poland value share of private label now exceeds 20%.

Richard HerbertEuropanel Global Business Development and Insight Director



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Consumer Index

Bosnia Q1 2010

Hypermarkets

Supermarkets

Other

GDP (Value) 1.6%

Rate of Food In�ation (Value) NA

NA

-5.5%

+4.0%

Rate of Unemployment

Average FMCG Basket Size (Value)

Frequency of FMCG Purchase

Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Bosnia – Trade Channels

Bosnia – Trade Channels

FMCG Value Share

Year-on-Year % Change (Value)

Total FMCG

Hypermarkets

Supermarkets

Other

Home Care

Q1 2010 Key IndicatorsYear-on-Year % Change

Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Bosnia – Category TrendsYear-on-Year % Change (Value)

MAT Q1 2007 MAT Q1 2008 MAT Q1 2009 MAT Q1 2010

Total FMCG

Chilled Foods

PackagedGrocery

Alcohol

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

2.2

16.4

0.0

-7.1

5.0

2.6

-5.5

-5.0

-1.4

-7.8

-4.7

-6.2

1.3

-1.5

-1.7

3.4

-3.3

-1.8

-9.3

11.8

-2.7

-0.7

9.9

0.1

-1.2

-1.9

-15.1

-1.7

-0.7

10.8

5.8

-7.0

-1.7

17.9

-2.2

-5.0

3.5

-3.5

-8.6 -8.5

22.6

15.0

62.4

24.7

16.8

58.5

25.5

18.5

56.1

26.4

20.6

53.0

•Total FMCG continued its decline compared with last year as well as the previous quarter.

•Only Chilled Foods and Personal Care categories experienced growth this quarter compared with the same period last year. Deodorants and Facial Care are driving the growth in the Personal Care category. In the Chilled Foods category the growth was driven by Mayonnaise, Yoghurt and Milk Desserts.

•Hypermarkets continue to experience growth in each period, the last quarter experienced the largest growth.

•Supermarkets marginally increased their share when versus the last quarter but declined when compared with the same period last year.

•Traditional stores continue to underperform, leading to a decrease in market share.

Please note: - Category, channel data and Average Basket size data are based on local currency- GDP and inflation rates are based on Euro currency



Consumer Index



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GDP (Value) -3.6%

Rate of Food In�ation (Value) -2.9%

+53.0%

-0.4%

-1.2%




Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Bulgaria – Trade Channels

Bulgaria – Trade Channels

FMCG Value Share


Other

Supermarkets &Hypermarkets

Discounters

Cash & Carry

Small GroceryShops

Street Vendors +open markets

Other

Home Care


Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Bulgaria – Category TrendsYear-on-Year % Change (Value)

+7.2%


2.1

6.2

-0.1

1.7

0.7

2.8

3.4

-7.1

-0.6

6.5

-3.7

-4.5

1.6

4.9

-7.0

-0.6

1.0

-0.3

9.4

-2.2

-1.2

-1.1

1.6

-3.3

4.9

-3.5

-2.3

6.2

+3.1% -2.9%-2.0% -4.2%

Total FMCG

Food Price Index

Chilled Foods

Packaged Grocery

Alcohol

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

Total FMCG

Supermarkets &Hypermarkets

Discounters

Cash & Carry

Small GroceryShops


-0.6

11.6

23.5

-24.1

-2.5

28.9

-12.5

-1.1

10.7

37.4

-23.8

-6.0

-70.6

-8.6

-0.6

6.2

64.4

-16.1

-5.4

33.4

17.9

1.2

47.0

3.32.1

18.2

28.3

1.1

45.8

3.05.2

19.9

25.0

1.0

44.3

2.86.8

21.0

24.2

1.0

42.8

2.39.5

23.4

21.0

Bulgaria Q1 2010

•Household purchases at the start of 2010 decreased in value and volume, this was driven by negative macroeconomic development (4% decrease in GDP for the same period) and higher unemployment rate.

•After a prolonged positive trend in the Home Care category, Q1 showed a fall in value. Despite this drop, there was a volume growth (+3.8%) mainly benefiting Private Label as well as consumers switching towards cheaper branded products. The same is also true for the Personal Care category.

•Although small grocery shops have the largest share of the market, in Q1 2010 Bulgarian households spent less in this outlet type, resulting in a fall of -5.4%.

•Discounters increased at the fastest rate, resulting in its market share reaching 11.8% in value in Q1 2010.

•The German hard discounter Plus continued to open new stores in smaller Bulgarian cities, since Q1 this year it has opened 5 new outlets. The chain has already sold its operation to Lidl.

•The largest European retailer Carrefour opened its first hypermarkets in Sofia and Plovdiv and continues to expand in other big cities.




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Consumer Index

GDP (Value) NA


+9.3%

-3.3%

-7.3%




Q3 2009 Q4 2009

Croatia – Trade Channels

Croatia – Trade Channels

FMCG Value Share


Hypermarkets

Supermarkets

Discounters

Other

Total FMCG

Chilled Foods

Packaged Grocery

Alcohol

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

Home Care

Petfood

Total FMCG

Hypermarkets

Supermarkets

Discounters

Other


Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Croatia – Category TrendsYear-on-Year % Change (Value)


13.8

16.8

9.8

11.5

4.2

26.0

13.7

21.9

-10.4

-14.6

-8.4

-14.6

-7.4

-7.5

-3.8

-4.2

-7.1

-10.4

10.8

-5.7

-6.4

-0.5

-1.2

40.0

10.8

13.9

10.4

-1.8

-0.2

19.9

12.6

16.4

-10.4

-5.1

-8.6

-16.9

17.5

10.8

29.2

3.6

5.0

57.9

-7.1

12.6

-13.8

-11.7

3.5

Q1 2010

0.8

31.1

16.1

52.1

2.9

32.6

17.1

47.3

4.5

30.0

18.6

46.9

5.7

28.6

21.3

44.5

Croatia Q1 2010

•The only channel that has grown in Q1 is the Discounters. This is because Croatian households have become more priced orientated due to the recession.

•Public media constantly emphasizes that households are basing their purchases on promotions. Shoppers are not going in one store to do their whole shopping trip but are switching between retailers and outlet types based on what they offer.




Consumer Index



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GDP (Value) +0.5%


+7.5%

-0.9%

+3.9%




Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Czech Republic – Trade Channels

Czech Republic – Trade Channels

FMCG Value Share


Total FMCG

Hypermarkets

Supermarkets

Discounters

Cash & Carry

Small GroceryShops


Other

Hypermarkets

Supermarkets

Discounters

Cash & Carry

Small GroceryShops


Other


Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Czech Republic – Category TrendsYear-on-Year % Change (Value)


Total FMCG

Food Price Index

Fresh Foods

Chilled Foods

Packaged Grocery

Frozen Foods

Alcohol

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

Home Care

Pet Foods

4.4

-6.9

-4.4

8.4

13.4

18.8

8.1

14.1

-0.7

12.6

2.6

17.5

-2.6

-1.6

1.7

11.2

8.8

8.0

7.0

1.5

4.2

14.5

5.1

1.6

-3.1

12.3

6.1

-7.3

3.1

27.1

0.3

9.4

-1.3

0.0

24.6

4.8

0.3

-3.2

3.1

-7.4

-4.9% -4.0%+1.1% -1.9%

2.6

10.2

2.3

0.7

-5.0

18.4

-4.0

-44.5

0.3

2.6

9.7

2.9

-4.4

-3.1

-7.5

-36.0

30.9

-2.5

-2.1

-11.4

1.4

0.9

9.3

4.2

0.2

19.5

2.7

20.9

16.6

35.1

4.9 0.2

18.5

3.0

21.8

17.9

34.9

3.7 0.2

18.8

2.4

20.2

19.5

35.6

3.2 0.2

17.6

2.2

19.0

19.9

37.5

3.6

Czech Republic Q1 2010

•Most FMCG categories, with the exception of Frozen Foods and Personal Care, experienced growth in Q1 2010.

•Increased in-home consumption has continued due to the financial crisis and resulting in an increase in Fresh Food, Chilled Food and Alcohol.

•Hypermarkets remain the key format and have seen gains in Q1. They have continued the trend from the last period, still increasing considerably.

•Tesco, Globus and Kaufland are strengthening their position within Czech Republic while HyperAlbert has seen a decrease. Supermarket share remained stable and gained +19.9%




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Consumer Index

Poland Q1 2010

GDP (Value) +3.3% (Q4 09)

Rate of Food In�ation (Value) +2.5%

+11.0%

+0.2%

+11.7%




Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Poland – Trade Channels

Poland – Trade Channels

FMCG Value Share


Total FMCG

Hypermarkets

Supermarkets

Discounters

Cash & Carry

Small GroceryShops


Other


Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Poland – Category TrendsYear-on-Year % Change (Value)


Total FMCG

Food Price Index

Chilled Foods

Packaged Grocery

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

Home Care

Other

Hypermarkets

Supermarkets

Discounters

Cash & Carry

Small GroceryShops


2.7

-0.4

3.4

3.2

8.7

1.3

0.0

-0.7

-3.0

4.6

9.0

0.4

10.9

11.3

12.9

10.4

4.2

5.4

0.9

3.3

-0.5

-0.7

6.1

-1.4

+2.5%+7.0% +3.7%+4.7%

0.0

4.9

16.8

16.6

-16.2

-12.9

13.7

-28.9

10.9

21.3

26.7

-6.5

-4.2

-13.2

18.2

-24.4

0.9

7.9

15.2

3.4

-15.2

-15.1

11.6

-28.7

2.2

35.2

1.6

17.3

16.1

19.4

8.22.0

33.5

1.7

18.0

16.7

20.5

7.61.8

30.3

1.8

20.5

16.7

21.8

7.1 1.3

25.5

1.8

22.7

19.1

23.6

1.3

•FMCG value growth was driven in part by Easter purchasing which was included in March purchases in 2010 while in 2009 Easter fell in April.

•There has been a significant increase in spend per buyer (+11.9%) in Q1 2010 versus Q1 2009 (inflation 3%) and trip size + 11.7%.

•The value share of Private Label exceeded 20% in Q1 2010.

•In the longer term - MAT Q1 2010 compared with the previous MAT - Modern Trade has been gaining importance. All three channels gained market share, particularly Hypermarkets +1.8p.p. to 23.6%, Supermarkets +1.5p.p. to 19.1% and Discounters +0.4 p.p. to 22.7%. When considering the shorter term, Q1 2010 versus the previous year, Supermarkets performed the best with +26.7%.

Please note: - In 2010 GfK Poland introduced scanners to the households and also reconstructed the panel structure- Category, channel data and Average Basket size data are based on local currency- GDP and inflation rates are based on Euro currency



Consumer Index



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Consumer Index

GDP (Value) -0.3%


NA

-8.7%

-8.1%




Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Romania – Trade Channels

Romania – Trade Channels

FMCG Value Share


Other

Hypermarkets

Supermarkets

Discounters

Cash & Carry

Small GroceryShops


Other


Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009

Romania – Category TrendsYear-on-Year % Change (Value)

Total FMCG

Food Price Index

Chilled Foods

Packaged Grocery

Alcohol

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

Home Care

Q1 2010

MAT Q1 2008 MAT Q1 2010MAT Q1 2009

Total FMCG

Hypermarkets

Supermarkets

Discounters

Cash & Carry

Small GroceryShops


17.0

25.7

12.1

18.0

14.5

16.7

22.0

10.9

19.7

4.3

14.1

8.4

12.6

14.6

10.4

14.1

8.2

16.4

9.7

5.9

7.8

+6.4% -0.1%+2.6% +0.5%

-1.8

-3.9

-1.8

2.3

-0.1

-7.4

-0.8

-1.8

8.1

-7.9

-32.2

-2.6

-11.8

-1.6

13.4

10.9

20.9

6.5

-29.8

7.9

-1.4

59.3

7.4

10.2

8.5

4.4

-28.3

13.5

-4.1

50.5

6.8

3.6

43.6

3.35.6

14.4

16.0

13.5

3.6

41.0

2.47.1

13.6

18.3

14.0

3.6

40.9

1.69.3

12.7

19.8

12.2

Romania Q1 2010

•With the global economic crisis, in-home FMCG consumption has declined for the first time in 10 years.

•Volume sales also declined, at a faster rate than penetration rates. The most affected categories were: personal care products (deodorants, face & skin care, hair care products, toilet soap) and food (dairy products, mayonnaise, ketchup, wafers, chocolate tablets).

•Modern Trade held value share around ~45% of total FMCG sales and continued to gain share from the traditional formats.

•Hypermarkets achieved a value share of 21% and Kaufland increased its strength, reaching 8% value share, followed by Real Hypermarket with 4.4% and Carrefour Hypermarket with 3.8%.

•Among the discounters, Penny Market and Plus were the dominant banners, each holding around 4% FMCG value market share.

•On average, households shopped less often compared with the same period last year. Although they spent more per trip, this was not enough to counterbalance the drop in frequency.

•While Private Label has seen its value share grow, up from 4.1% to 4.5%, this is not due to new buyers (penetration has remained constant). Within Private Label, Beverages and Home Care registered significant growth rates.




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Consumer Index

GDP (Value) NA


-7.4%

-12.3%

+24.4%




Russia – Trade Channels

Russia – Trade Channels

FMCG Value Share


Q1 2010 Key IndicatorsYear-on-Year % Change Russia – Category Trends


Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Other

Hypermarkets

Supermarkets

Discounters

Cash & Carry

Small GroceryShops


Other

Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010


Total FMCG

Food Price Index

Fresh Foods

Chilled Foods

Packaged Grocery

Frozen Foods

Alcohol

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

Home Care

Total FMCG

Hypermarkets

Supermarkets

Discounters

Cash & Carry

Small GroceryShops


33.6

31.7

46.1

29.2

36.8

19.7

18.6

29.1

28.5

35.6

26.9

36.8

32.9

34.5

17.6

31.7

29.5

47.9

17.2

12.6

20.7

17.5

19.0

11.7

16.8

18.9

18.9

10.8

11.6

23.8

21.8

3.8

-3.4

7.6

7.4

2.0

+17.5% +20.8% +14.4% FPI4

35.6

129.8

68.8

43.4

122.0

24.6

41.7

13.4

17.2

81.4

70.3

103.8

6.7

-11.2

29.3

22.2

10.8

67.3

22.2

78.7

11.8

-9.4

29.3

-4.1

20.8

32.9

0.66.7

7.42.8

28.8

17.5

32.4

0.89.7

9.53.6

26.5

17.0

32.1

0.810.7

10.5

4.3

24.6

17.2

30.2

1.311.8

12.9

6.6

20.1

Russia Q1 2010

•In Q1 2010 total FMCG showed a 10% growth rate compared with the same period in the previous year. While this remains notable, it should be considered that this is the slowest rate of growth since Q1 2008 as shoppers are spending less per trip.

•While Private Label increased slightly compared with the same period last year, its share remains limited.

•Modern Trade channels continued to grow in Q1 2010. Their value share reached 36% compared with 30% in Q1 2009. The fastest growing channel was Cash & Carry. While it saw its market share increase, it seems it was hindering the growth rate of Lenta, one of the leading hypermarket chains.

•Among Hypermarkets the highest growth rate was seen for Karusel (X5) and Discounters increased due to the Magnit growth.




Consumer Index



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Consumer Index

GDP (Value) +1.0%

NARate of Food In�ation (Value)

NA

+3.5%

+8.0%




Serbia – Trade Channels

Serbia – Trade Channels

FMCG Value Share


Q1 2010 Key IndicatorsYear-on-Year % Change Serbia – Category Trends


Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Other

Hypermarkets

Supermarkets

Discounters

Cash & Carry

Small GroceryShops


Other

Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010


Pet Foods

Total FMCG

Hypermarkets

Supermarkets

Cash & Carry

Small GroceryShops


Total FMCG

Chilled Foods

Packaged Grocery

Alcohol

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

Home Care

1.3

1.5

3.6

4.1

-5.6

-1.0

0.1

-0.5

-3.7

-6.0

-3.1

1.9

-8.4

-4.9

6.3

-6.5

1.7

1.7

-1.6

-0.4

1.1

4.3

15.9

7.5

-3.2

-6.1

-3.9

4.7

-8.0

-0.1

6.0

33.7

-3.7

-2.9

-9.0

-1.7

-2.9

2.0

0.2

-15.4

-3.2

-3.0

3.4

-4.5

5.0

-6.6

1.7

-12.5

-0.6

-8.2

4.6

6.0

-6.0

2.3

62.6

3.6

18.8

4.7

7.92.7

58.6

5.6

20.2

4.9

8.03.5

53.5

6.3

23.6

5.1

7.9

3.2

53.0

6.40.1

23.4

4.8

9.1

Serbia Q1 2010

•The economic outlook for Serbia remains fairly poor, with increasing unemployment and falling salaries resulting in many seeing their purchasing power decline.

•Hypermarkets suffered the most in Q1 2010 compared with Q1 2009, followed by Cash & Carry. Larger stores experienced decline while Small Grocery Shops have regained some of their share. Overall the development of the modern trade channels has slowed.

•With the economic uncertainty, buyers have been more cautious; planning their purchases before entering the shop, writing shopping lists and calculating their spend, due to lower purchasing power. They go shopping only when necessary and buying only what is necessary.

•Shoppers have been behaving more rationally when doing their shopping.

•Private Label has doubled its market share since Q1 2009, now reaching 3.2% value share.

•During the period there was also a notable increase in on shelf promotions.




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Consumer Index

GDP (Value) +4.6%

-2.5%Rate of Food In�ation (Value)

+14.1%

-2.0%

+4.3%




Slovakia – Trade ChannelsFMCG Value Share



Hypermarkets

Supermarkets

Discounters

Cash & Carry

Small GroceryShops


Other

Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Slovakia – Category TrendsYear-on-Year % Change (Value)

Total FMCG

Food Price Index

Chilled Foods

Packaged Grocery

Frozen Foods

Alcohol

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

Home Care

Pet Foods

Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Slovakia – Trade ChannelsYear-on-Year % Change (Value)

Total FMCG

Hypermarkets

Supermarkets

Discounters

Cash & Carry

Small GroceryShops


Other

6.5

6.8

50.2

0.2

-6.7

7.3

19.4

9.4

-7.4

-2.2

-3.7

0.4

-4.5

-11.3

1.8

28.8

2.7

3.2

3.4

51.3

-1.3% -5.6%

2.8

0.7

6.6

8.0

8.4

-1.7

0.3

-8.5

17.9

2.9

1.1

3.4

24.7

13.3

3.7

-2.2

-2.0

18.7

-5.3% -2.6%

0.4

15.1

-18.4

-4.3

-8.1

6.4

-6.4

-17.3

2.9

11.7

0.9

-2.1

-11.0

39.1

-8.5

-27.3

2.8

14.5

-21.6

-7.8

-3.5

17.1

-7.0

52.3

0.1

29.4

2.3

12.9

23.6

24.4

7.20.1

26.9

2.5

14.0

24.1

25.7

6.60.1

25.3

2.1

14.2

25.4

26.2

6.70.1

23.1

1.8

15.6

23.4

29.5

6.5

Slovakia Q1 2010

•The economy grew in the first quarter of 2010 at a rate of +4.6% year-on-year (reaching over 15,000 million EUR) according to the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic. During Q1 2010 the total export of goods increased by +16.9% to 10,470 million EUR, compared with the corresponding period last year and inflation increased slightly to +1.5 %. More problematic however is unemployment, which reached 12.9%. More than 346,000 job seekers were registered in March.

•Retail sales in March grew for the first time since December 2008 and were +0.2% higher than in the same period a year ago. Behind the moderate increase was an increase in retail sales in non-specialised outlets – mainly Hypermarkets who increased and strengthened their position. Among Hypermarkets, Tesco & Kaufland were the most successful.

•The Discounters channel also continues to grow, mainly driven by Lidl. In Q2 2010 Lidl planned to start a new advertising campaign which is shifting its positioning away from hard discount.

Please note: All indicators are based on Euro currency.



Consumer Index



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Consumer Index

GDP (Value) 4.8%

10.0%Rate of Food In�ation (Value)

NA

-1.4%

+13.6%




Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Ukraine – Trade Channels

Ukraine – Trade Channels

FMCG Value Share


Hypermarkets

Supermarkets

Discounters

Cash & Carry

Small GroceryShops


Other


Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010

Ukraine – Category TrendsYear-on-Year % Change (Value)


Total FMCG

Fresh Foods

Chilled Foods

Packaged Grocery

Frozen Foods

Alcohol

Soft Drinks

Personal Care

Home Care

Other

Total FMCG

Hypermarkets

Supermarkets

Discounters

Cash & Carry

Small GroceryShops


13.6

17.2

12.7

13.3

-9.4

6.5

-3.2

16.6

6.9

10.7

11.8

19.0

6.5

3.1

16.8

-5.2

25.5

25.5

8.7

5.8

21.0

6.6

3.2

16.9

-2.2

23.5

31.8

16.6

12.1

25.8

16.8

3.8

27.4

7.9

30.2

45.5

8.7

43.6

-6.4

32.8

4.8

34.0

9.6

-5.5

58.9

10.7

20.6

-3.6

23.7

-3.9

11.9

-14.0

80.9

13.6

23.4

16.2

31.7

-19.7

13.1

-22.1

50.1

12.5

1.71.411.2

23.1

49.5

12.31.71.9

12.0

22.5

47.8

12.4

1.82.6

12.40.6

22.4

48.3

16.5

1.63.1

11.30.8

18.5

Ukraine Q1 2010

•FMCG increased its rate of growth compared with previous quarters. Prices increased sharply (+14%) compared with Q1 2009. Among the categories that grew rapidly both in volume and value terms were: White Fat, Margarine, Roast and Ground Coffee and Bulk Chocolate Pralines. The main losers were Cold Drinks (Juices and CSD), Chips (Crisps), Instant Soup and Bouillon Cubes.

•Hypermarkets and Discounters continued to show positive development, though their share of the market remains small. Among the most successful chains within the Hypermarket Channel were: Prostor, Tam-Tam and Auchan. Within Discounters: ATB, MD Stores and Barvinok. Within Supermarkets: Target, Kray, Silpo, Tavria, and Eco. Traditional Grocery Stores.

•The negative trend for Cash & Carry can be explained by changes in Metro's positioning in Ukraine from end consumers to Business to Business consumers.

Please note: - Category , channel data and Average Basket size data are based on local currency.- GDP and inflation rates are based on Euro currency



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Consumer Index

Definitions

CaTEgORIES UnIvERSE:FMCg: Fast Moving Consumer Goods (includes foods, personal care and home care; excludes clothes, white goods etc...) Total FMCG is not necessarily the sum of the categories shown below it.Categories:•Fresh Foods: fresh fish, fresh meat, fresh poultry/game, fresh fruit, vegetables, salads•Chilled Foods: chilled deli products, chilled dairy products, chilled bakery products•Packaged Grocery: bread, biscuits, canned goods, hot beverages, packet breakfast, pickles, sauces, condiments, savoury carbohydratesand snacks, home cooking ingredients, take home confectionery and savouries•Soft Drinks: carbonated soft drinks, chilled drinks and mineral water•Home Care: softeners, detergents and rinse conditioners•Personal Care: bathroom toiletries, hair care, healthcare, oral care, other toiletries

TRaDE CHannEL DEFInITIOnS:

Hypermarkets Supermarkets OthersCash & Carry

Small Grocery Shops

Street Vendors + open marketsDiscounters

Bosnia

Offering a broad food and non-food assortment. Usually offering large car parks.(Interex, Mercator, Robot Commerce, Merkur, Tom, Bingo...)

Offering a broad food and non-food assortment. Usually offering large car parks.(Interspar, IperCoop, Kau�and, Mercator hypers, Super Konzum)

Globus, Kau�and, Interspar, Hypernova/Hyperalbert, Tesco hypermarket, COOP Terno, Hypermarket

> 2,500 m2, more than 10,000 articles, at least 30% non-food, more than 10 cash registers (Auchan, Cora, Interspar, Tesco)

1000s m2, food and non-food assortmentMercator, Interex, Super Vero, M Rodić, Idea extra, Super Maxi, Tus

Food and non-food assortment, minimal sales area 2500 sqm, usually offering large car parks (examples: HM Tesco, Hypernova, Carrefour, Kau�and).

Auchan, Kau�and, Tesco, Intermarche, Carrefour, Real, E.Leclerc

Carrefour Hypermarket, Cora, Auchan Hypermarket, Spar Hypermarket, Real, Trident, Pic, Interex, Kau�and.

Ramstore, O'Key, Auchan

HIT, Ramstore Hypermakets, Billa, Boila, Bonjour, Burlex, CBA Supermarkets, ENA, Familia, Fantastico Supermarkets, Oazis, Piccadilly, Ramstore Supermarkets, Other Supermarkets

More than 400m2. Silpo, Furshet, Billa, Velyka Kyshenya, Karavan, ProStor, Tam-Tam, Auchan, etc.

Mainly food assortment; over 400 m2 (Konzum, Interex, Dzanovic, Robot Commerce, Zvornicanka, Mercator, Tropic, Bingo...)

Mainly food assortment; over 400 m2 (Bakmaz, Billa, Biljemerkant, Boso, Diona, Idis, Jolly, Kerum, KTC, Maxi Konzum, Mercator, Pemo, Plodine, Preso�ex, Studenac, Tommy, etc.)

ABC, Aldik, Alma, Asort, Billa, Bomi, Carrefour Minut, Carrefour Express, Dino, Duzy Sklep Wielobranzowy, Eko, Elea, E.Leclerc, Euro Sklep, Grosik, Jedynka, Marcpol, Piotripawel, Polomarket, Rossmann, Sano, Savia, Seic 34, Spar, Stokrotka, Tesco Express, Tesco, Topaz, Zatoka, Zielony Market

Albert, Billa, Tesco diskont, COOP / Jednota Tempo, COOP / Jednota Tip, COOP Supermarket; independents

400-2,000 m2, food and non food, 3-10 cash registers (Kaiser's, Match, Spar, bigger Coop, CBA and Real)

Food assortment. Billa, Terno, COOP/Jednota

Food and non food products: Carrefour Express, Auchan Supermarket, Spar Supermarket, Mega Image, Billa, G’market, Angst, etc and independents

Over 400m2 C Market, Pekabeta, M Rodić, Maxi, Jabuka, Si Market, Univerexport, Interex, Ziper 024, Impex Promet, IDEA Super, DIS, Tus, etc

Sedmoy Kontinent, Stolitsa, BIN, etc

Offering a broad food and non-food assortment; selling to licensed customers (Getro, Metro); Specialist stores: pet shops, fruit shops, chocolate shops and butchers, kiosks, open market places, door-to-door, producer/farmer, mail order, gas stations, news stands; Smaller food/grocery outlets up to 400 m2 (Lora, Klas, Dzanovic, DP Market, Braca Karovic, Bingo, Konzum)

Offering a broad food and non-food assortment; selling to licensed customers (Getro, Metro); Specialist stores: pet shops, fruit shops, chocolate shops and butchers, kiosks, open market places, door-to-door, producer/farmer, mail order, gas stations, news stands; Smaller food/grocery outlets up to 400 m2 (Local convenience stores, Bakmaz, Billa (Minaco), Boso, Diona, Idis, Kerum, Konzum, KTC, Mercator, Pemo, Prehrana, Preso�ex, Studenac, Tommy, etc.)

Family Frost, petrol station, etc.

Mail order, direct marketing, D.I.Y etc.

Drugstores, Petrol stations, etc.

Direct sales, specialized stores, etc.

Agro & Food stores, specialized stores: bakeries, butchers, chemists, etc, door-to-door, kiosks, mail order houses / subscr., petrol stations, tobacconists, etc.

Specialist storesDrogeries (DM, Lilly), Perfumeries, Pharmacies, Door-to-Door, Bakeries, Coffee Shops, Beverages discounts, Dairy Shops, Candy Shops, Kiosks, etc

Petrol stations, Pharmacies, Drugstores, Cosmetics shops, Kiosks, Wholesalers, etc

Other Shops: specialists stores, gas stations; drugstores; “Economat” stores, etc.

Gas stations, tobacconist´s/newsstands, etc.

Limited range of food, often selling directly from pallets, focused on price (Lidl)

Limited range of food, often selling directly from pallets, focused on price (Lidl)

Lidl, Penny Market, Plus, Norma, COOP Diskont, Diskont

400-1,000 m2, food and near-food range, cosmetics and chemical products, 3-10 cash registers (Lidl, Penny Market, Plus, Pro�, Aldi)

Lower prices for food and non food products: Penny Market, Penny Market XXL, MiniMax Discount, Plus, Pro�

Limited range of food assortment, often selling directly from pallets, focused on price (Lidl, Rema 1000, etc.)

400-1,500 m2. ATB, Fora, Barvinok, etc.

Kopeyka, Magnit, Pyaterochka, Kopeyka

Aldi, Biedronka, Lidl, Netto, Plus Discount

Kau�and Fantastico C&C, Metro C&C

Eurocash, Makro, Selgros

Metro Cash & Carry, Selgros Cash & Carry

Metro Cash&Carry

Stores with speci�c payment regulation and/or speci�c membership cardsTempo, Metro, Roda, Figrad, etc

Selling to licenced customers only (retailers, small entrepreneurs (examples: Metro).

Selgros & Makro for households and Metro for businesses

Velpro, Slavija

Getro, Metro

Makro, Hopi C&C

Metro

n/a

n/a

ARO, CBA Minimarkets, Fantastico Minimarkets, Magazin 345, T-Market, Minimarkets, Market Halls, Mixed Assortment

Small self-service grocers: Spar, COOP / Jednota, COOP / Jednota Tuty Over-the-counter specialists

Food and non-food, less than 3 cash desks

Limited food and non-food assortment

Up to 400m2, miniMaxi, C Market, Pekabeta, M Rodić, Univerexport, Idea, Jabuka, Si Market, Višnjica, DIS, Luki Komerc, etc

Small food-self service: Sama, Coop Small food retailers over-the-counter: Bala

Selling mainly food, less than 3 cash registers, counter or self- service

Selling area less than 400 m2, 1 or 2 cash registers, range of food and non-food articles, belonging to named key account (small Coop, small CBA, small Real, small Honiker and Heliker shops) or being independent.

Traditional shops, selling food and non food products, kiosks and agro & food stores (traditional over-the-counter shops for food, where you can also buy personal and household care products).

n/a

n/a n/a

n/a

Street Vendors, Open Markets Vendors




Street Vendors and Open Markets



Street Vendors, market hall and open market vendors (open spaces for trade, especially for food products).

Bulgaria

Croatia

CzechRepublic

Hungary

Poland

Romania

Russia

Serbia

Slovakia

Ukraine



Consumer Index



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Consumer Index

Sources & Methodology

METHODOLOgY: • A consumer panel is a permanent, syndicated and representative sample of consumers, who provide ongoing details of the fast moving consumer goods they purchase. Using the scanning/diary methodology, each panel member records the details of every item they purchase. • Sample sizes in number of households: Russia: 7,000 HHs; Poland: 5,000 HHs; Ukraine: 5,000 HHs; Czech Republic: 2,000 HHs; Hungary: 2,000 HHs; Bulgaria: 2,500 HHs; Romania: 2,200 HHs; Croatia: 1,500 HHs; Slovakia: 1,500 HHs; Serbia: 1,500 HHs; Bosnia&Herzegovina: 1,000 HHs.• Category, channels data and Average Basket size data are based on local currency.

KEY InDICaTORS :Panel data indicators• Frequency of FMCG purchase: Frequency of FMCG purchase during the quarter compared with the same quarter the previous year.• FMCG Average Basket Size: Average amount spent per trip in FMCG during the quarter compared with the same quarter the previous year.Eurostat data indicators:• Food price index: Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices (HICPs) are produced and published using a common index reference period (2005=100). • Unemployment: UUnemployed persons comprise persons aged 15 to 74 who were without work during the reference week, were currently available for work and were either actively seeking work in the past four weeks or had already found a job to start within the next three months. • Constant Price GDP (based on Euro currency): Gross domestic product (GDP) at market prices is the final result of the production activity of resident producer units (ESA 1995, 8.89). It is defined as the value of all goods and services produced less the value of any goods or services used in their creation. Data are calculated as chain-linked volumes (i.e. data at previous year's prices, linked over the years via appropriate growth rates). Growth rates with respect to the previous quarter (Q/Q-1) are calculated from calendar and seasonally adjusted figures while growth rates with respect to the same quarter of the previous year (Q/Q-4) are calculated from raw data.

KEY COUnTRY FaCTS:Source: CIA World Fact Book

Please note: Hungary not included in Q1 addition due to the panel migration to scanners. However Hungary will be included in Q2 and future additions.

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