Transcript
  • 3 .. 2546-2547

    ISBN : 974-8133-52-4http://203.157.19.191 ()

    , 3 ..2546-2547 : , 2549. 2549 1500

  • 4

  • 5

    3

    . . . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . . . . .. .. . .

    2549

  • 6

    2 3 2547 40,000 . .. ..

  • 7

    3 .. 2546 - 2547

    9 1 17 2 20

    2.1 202.2 322.3 402.4 412.5 422.6 452.7 462.8 50

    3 513.1 513.2 553.3 613.4 633.5 693.6 72

    4 774.1 774.2 1114.3 1524.4 156

  • 8 5 1595.1 1615.2 15-59 1625.3 171

    6 1746.1 1776.2 177

    6.2.1 1786.2.2 1826.2.3 183

    6.3 1876.4 1916.5 1936.6 1966.7 201

    7 2137.1 2147.2 222

    37.3 224

    3 227 4 237 5 243 6 245

  • 9 3

    3 .. 2546 - 2547 (.)

    4 15 - 59 60 (Three - stage Stratified probability Sampling) 42,120 39,290

    15 - 15 .. 2547

    (60 ) () Hemoglobin Hematocrit, (Fasting Blood Sugar) (Total cholesterol) CBC

  • 10

    Stata 9.0 (Stata Corporation Texas) 39,290 15 - 59 9,515 15 - 59 10,403 60 9,419 60 9,953

    1. 15

    .. 2543

    .. 2563

    15 - 29

    9 80 4

    19 3 73 64 8 33 80

    71 53

    46 8 6 - 8 (70 - 80 ) 81 . ( 56) 15-20

    5,000 5,800 4,000

    (1,230 ) 10 15 - 59

  • 11

    20 60 30,50 60 60 - 69, 70 - 79 80 47,64 82

    15 2.9 5 5,6,7 10

    2.

    4

    15 17 2

    ( 20 ethanol 40 ) 11.8 0.4 15 27 65 57 19 12 3 15 - 29

    15

    46 2 13 8 18 23

    (physical activity)

    MET minute (Metabolic Equivalent Time) (inactive)

  • 12

    70 50 20.7 24.2

    15 268 (+188) 283

    (+195) 400 5 15 80 76

    3.

    15 23 21 ( SBP > 140

    DBP > 90 ) 71

    17 14

    60 69 45 - 59 60 69 87 9

    7 6

    60 - 69 14 19 66 49 Insulin 41 41

    ( ) 15.4 15 10.6

    (Hb < 13 gm%, Hct < 39 %) 2 22 11

    80 50

  • 13

    5

    (Body Mass Index: BMI) 15 22.6 (+3.9) 23.8 (+4.6) (15 - 29

    ) (30 - 59 ) 80 78.6 (+ 10.9) 76.6 (+ 4.6) 70 24.9 kg /m2 22.5 34.4 ( > 90 .. > 80 ..) 15 36 (abdominalobesity)

    15 44 32 1

    20 15 2 9 8 3

    15 15 25

    1

    15 3 0.4 0.4 ( 0.6 0.3) 0.5 0.8 ( 1.0 0.6) 0.2

    ( 15 - 59 ) 12

    15.7 9.8 8.2 5.5 53 44 ( 13.2 10.6 )

  • 14

    4. 15 - 59

    14 15 - 29 13 45 - 59 15 2 (S.D. 1.8) 19.8 5.4 14.4

    (Screening program) Pap. Smear

    Pap.smear 2 15 - 59 32.4 16.1 2

    49 15 - 59 22.7 Mammogram 40 - 59 4

    15 - 59 15 - 29 50 17

    5.

    7 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

    Barthel ADL (Activities of Daily Living)

    60-69 70-79 90 80 80

  • 15

    10 80 12-13 14 9 (2740)

    8 9 20 20 20 45 28 0.6

    80

    38 41 20 35 60 30

    60 (TMSE) 20 60-69 60 77 80

    3

    80 3

    3 40 20 60

  • 16

    30, 40 50 60-69 , 70-79 80 5-6

    19,336 36

    47 27 60-69 ( 40) ( 20) ( 10) 3 80

    60 40

    80-90

    13 20 15

    50 20-28 30

  • 17

    1.1

    .. 2534 .. 2539 .. 2547 (.) (.)

    1.2

    1.3

    1

  • 18

    1.4 15

    4 15 - 59 60

    42, 120

    1.5 1

    3 .. 2546-2547 2

    3,4,5 6 3 15 ()

    4

    4

    5 15-59

    6 60 60

  • 19

    7

    (.) . . . . 2 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.9

    .

    13 .

  • 20

    2.1

    (.)

    2.1.1 (Target Population)

    3 .. 2546 - 2547 15 - 59 60

    2

  • 21

    2.1.2 (Population Unit)

    (Cluster Sampling)/

    (Population Average) (Proportion) (Ratio)

    2.1.3

  • 22

    Stratified Two-Stage ClusterSampling 3 3

    2.1.3.1 (Stratification)

    12

    1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11.

  • 23

    12. 13.

    6

    1. 2.

    3. 4. 5. 6.

    2.1.3.2 (Clustering) (Stratified Sampling) (Cluster Sampling)

    (Cluster Sampling)

  • 24

    (First Stage Clustering) 3 (Probability Proportional to Size)

    / 2 (Second Stage Clustering) / /

    / / (Systematic Sampling) /

    2.1.4 (Sampling Plan)

    (Stratified Three-stage Cluster Sampling) 2 6 12 2 24 30

    1 2

    1 2 3 2.1. -2.4

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    2.2

    1 5 8 11

    2 6 9 12

    3 7 10

    4

    2

    1, 2, 3...15

    1

    1, 2, 3...15

    ...

    1, 2, 3...15

    2.1

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    11

    12

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    2.3

    1 5 8 11

    2 6 9 12

    3 7 10

    4

    1

    1, 2, 3...15

    1

    1, 2, 3...15

    ...

    1, 2, 3...

  • 27

    2.1.5

    (Population Proportion: Prevalence) P 0.01 - 0.99 (Absolute Error) |p-P| =0.01 - 0.10 0.95 2.1

    2.4

    2 1 .....

    1, 2,...15 1, 2,...15 1, 2,...15

    2.4

  • 28

    P |p-P| =0.01 |p-P| =0.025 |p-P| =0.05 |p-P| =0.075 |p-P| =0.10.01 380 61 15 7 40.05 1,825 292 73 32 180.10 3,457 553 138 61 350.15 4,898 784 196 87 490.20 6,147 983 246 109 610.25 7,203 1,152 288 128 720.30 8,067 1,291 323 143 810.35 8,740 1,398 350 155 870.40 9,220 1,475 369 164 920.45 9,508 1,521 380 169 950.50 9,604 1,537 384 171 960.55 9,508 1,521 380 169 950.60 9,220 1,475 369 164 920.65 8,740 1,398 350 155 870.70 8,067 1,291 323 143 810.75 7,203 1,152 288 128 720.80 6,147 983 246 109 610.85 4,898 784 196 87 490.90 3,457 553 138 61 350.95 1,825 292 73 32 180.99 380 61 15 7 4

    2.1 0.95

    (Cluster Sampling) (Stratified Random Sampling) 810 10,530 ( 12 ) 3 4 ( ) 42,120

  • 29

    3 / 15 / / 702/

    2.1.6 (Sample Allocation)

    2.2 -2.3 810 405 405

    2.2

    1

    12 4,860 4,860 9,720- 1 135 135 270- 1 405 405 810

    810 - 810 5,670 4,860 10,53012 19,440 19,440 38,880

    - 1 540 540 1,080- 1 1,620 1,620 3,240

    3,240 - 3,240 22,680 19,440 42,120

    4

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    2.1.7 (Sampling Frame)/

    (Sampling Frame) / / 3

    2.1.8 (Estimation Procedure)

    30

    2.3 15

    46,072,543 15,099,543 30,973,000 5,242,080 5,242,080 - 11,057,444 3,922,653 7,134,791 8,754,911 1,880,761 6,874,150 15,183,663 2,652,907 12,530,756 5,834,445 1,401,142 4,433,303

    : .. 2543

    2.4

    15,937,804 5,291,871 10,645,933 1,743,752 1,743,752 - 3,921,855 1,427,899 2,493,956 3,194,220 699,107 2,495,113 5,073,914 918,912 4,155,002 2,004,063 502,201 1,501,862

    : .. 2543

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    (Ratio Estimator) (Post Stratification)

    3 2.5

    1. :

    /

    / - - - 3

    2.5

    (15-59 ) (60 +)

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    2.2 4

    ( 15-59 ) ( 60 ) ( 15-59 ) (60 )

    4 - ( 15-59 )- ( 15-59 )- ( 60 )- ( 60 )

    1

    ( )

    (15-59 ) (60 +)

    2.

    3. Hematocrit / Hemoglobin Fasting blood sugar Total cholesterol White blood count

  • 33

    2 2

    191 (WHO Multi-Country Survey Study , 2000-2001) Health State Description 8 8

    - (mobility)- (self care)- (pain or discomfort)- (cognition)- (personal relationship, community participation)- (vision)- (sleep and energy)- (emotion, affect) ()

    5 (1) (5) 5 5

    3 3

    (1) C1a C2b 1 12

    1 C1b

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    C1b

    6-8 = 1 1 = 1 1/2 = 1 1 = 1 4 = 1 1 (150 cc) = 1

    1/2 (1=150cc 1 ) = 1 1 1 = 1 1/2 = 1

    (2) C2b C1b 12 3 /

    2 = 2 1/2 = 1 = 3

    (3) C3-C20 C3 C20

    4 (Physical Activity)

    3

    (1) ( D1-D6)

    (2)

  • 35

    ( D7-D8b) D7 D7 D8a 10 D8b

    (3) D9-D14 ( 10 )

    5

    (1) (Current smoker) 2 . (Daily smoker) 1 . (Non-daily smoker Occasional smoker)

    (2) (Non-smoker) 2 . (Never-smokers) . (Ex-smokers)

    5 E1-E7b3 E1 : E2 : 100 E3a,E3b : E4a : E4b1-E4b3 : E4a E5a-E5c : E6 :

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    E7a-E7b1,2,3 :

    6 F1a-F3g

    -

    - (

    cc. ) - ()

    (F3-F3g)

    ()

    - - ( cc) (cc)- ()- Ethanol (Ethanol Specific Density = 0.79)

    () = X Ethanol Specific Density X

    1 (330 cc) Ethanol = 330 X 0.79 X 0.05

    = 13 1 (140 cc) Ethanol = 140 X 0.79 X 0.12

    = 13 1 Standard drink 1 (Ethanol) 8 - 13

    7 GA1-GM20 15

    - -

  • 37

    - ()

    - - - - - -

    -

    -

    - - -

    -

    - ( )

    - // - - 7 (

    1 1 ) ()

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    8 H1-H9j

    - - - - -

    12

    1 1 1 1 ()

    - (/)- 12 (H2,H3,H4)- (H5a-H5l)- 12

    (H6-H7b)-

    (H8-H9j)

    9

    I1-I6 I20-I24 12

  • 39

    ( 15-59 ) ( I1-I20)

    - (I1-I

    5)

    13 15 (National Health Exam Survey 2) (I

    3-I

    6) (45

    )

    - I6-I7b () I

    7b

    - (I8-I

    11)

    I11 () 4-6

    - (I12-I

    14h) (

    2 )

    - (I15-I

    16d)

    ()

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    - (I17a

    -I19b

    ) PAP smear 2

    PAP. smear I17a

    2 (Mammogram) I18a-I19b /

    2.3

    15 - 15 .. 2547

  • 41

    2.4

    20 1 20 15

    .. 2546

    2

  • 42

    2.5

    CBC (Complete Blood Count) (Fasting Blood Glucose) (Total Cholesterol) Serum Buffy coat (Serum bank)

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    Serum Buffy coat -20C

    CBC, FBS, Cholesterol

    Serum Buffy coat

  • 44

    3 39,570 1 Buffy coat cryovial tube 2 -20C ME108 1 1

    1.

    2.

    3.

    4. Buffy coat Buffy coat

    5. 0-2951-0000 99443 0-2951-1498 0-2591-5449 24 ()

    ()

    1. Buffy coat (recode) -80C2. 2-3 () 1

    0.5 -80C (Reference) 2 3 1 -20C

    1. (Serum) 1 -80C 39,219 2. (Serum) 2 -20C 33,640 3. (Serum) 3 -20C 14,203 4. (Buffy coat) -80C 1 38,841 5. (Buffy coat) -80C 2 30,668

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    3 3 4.1 4.2 4.3

    3 462/2547

    2.6

    3

    15 4 702

    (Exploratory Data Analysis) (Missing Values) 4 702

  • 46

    () 702

    2.7 .. 2547 3

    76 13 3-5 13

    () () 6

    3-Cluster Sampling Framewith Stratification at each stage ( 2.6) 13 () 42,120 3,240 38,880

  • 47

    (1) (Missing value) (2) (Missing) (3)

    Stata 9.0 (Stata Corporation, Texas)(1) (Missing value)

    (off_qcode)

    2.7 2.8

    12 3 38,880

    / 2 9 1,080 15-59 / 4 15 60 15-59 60 / 60 (13) 1 () 1 With certainty 3,240 6 9 3,240

    15-59 / 4 15 60 15-59 60 / 60

    42,120

    2.6 3

    (Strata)

  • 48

    (2) (Missing)

    (Plausible range) ( 1 0 ) ( 15 110 ) 12

    2.7

    q-code (off-q code) / 877/ 67 179 1 39,290

    2.8

    1 405 406 391 402 404 405 387 402 1,587 1,6152 405 405 404 403 405 405 404 405 1,618 1,6183 405 405 402 405 401 404 390 402 1,598 1,6164 402 405 403 405 400 403 383 396 1,588 1,609

    5 379 406 391 389 400 405 377 402 1,547 1,6026 364 395 368 389 405 405 389 402 1,526 1,5917 382 404 384 400 401 404 365 371 1,532 1,579

    8 377 413 385 406 402 397 377 386 1,541 1,6029 293 341 355 380 351 366 363 383 1,362 1,47010 334 388 363 393 366 381 375 371 1,438 1,533

    11 301 379 334 385 359 392 376 391 1,370 1,54712 304 383 311 346 356 402 363 396 1,334 1,527

    13 514 904 379 543 - - - - 893 1,4474,865 5,634 4,868 5,248 4,650 4,769 4,549 4,707 18,934 20,356

    39,290

  • 49

    (3)

    ( )

    3

    (2.5)

    2.5

    MA11b

    MA11c

    .

    .

    0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

    0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

    0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

    0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

  • 50

    2.8

    Standard error ( standard errors ) complex sample design effects Stata 9.0 (Stata Corporation, Texas)

    .. 2547

    (13 ) 13 () : (6 ) : / (2 ) (2 ) 5 (4 , 15 80 )

    840 P weight / SVY Stata

    Sampling error ( Standard errors ) Taylor series linearization Survey design effects 3

    1. 2. 3. ()

    Finite Probability Correction Factors (FPC) Stratum) 1 2

  • 51

    3

    12

    .. 2547

    3.1

    1

    1 . ; ., 2543

  • 52

    1 .. 2503 2563 .. 2503, 2523 2543 3 .. 2563 (, 2545)2 0 - 5 15

    2 1 .. 2543

    .. 2563

    10 30

    12 1-4 5-7 8-10 11-12

    2 .. 2543-2568, , 2545

  • 53

    3.2 .. 2547 ..2543- 2563

    3.1 .. 2503-2543 .. 2563

  • 54

    3.3

  • 55

    3.2

    ..2503 4 6 .. 2520 9 3

    4 .. 2503 45 45 6

    3.2.1 4

    (1) 15 - 29 80 3.4 1.5 4

    1 15 - 29 9.4 9.5 6 .. 2520

    3 2546-25474 www.nfe.go.th

  • 56

    3.2.2 4 .. 2503 45 45 4 15 - 29 30 - 44 6 15 - 29

    3.5 4

    3.4

  • 57

    (2) 4 ( 3.1)

    15-29 10.10.10 1,068 10.60.13 83230-44 8.70.10 1,809 7.90.09 2,14345-59 6.70.09 1,946 5.40.07 2,58460-69 5.70.08 2,666 4.10.06 2,98170-79 4.80.08 1,725 3.50.06 1,80980+ 4.20.18 351 2.10.14 348 6.70.04 9,565 5.50.04 10,697

    15-29 9.10.10 1,066 9.10.10 97130-44 6.70.08 1,862 5.90.07 2,01845-59 4.90.07 1,667 4.00.05 1,70060-69 4.00.05 2,527 3.00.04 2,53470-79 3.40.05 1,558 2.70.05 1,68780+ 3.10.13 326 1.20.09 342 5.20.03 9,006 4.30.03 9,252

    3.1

    Mean S.E. Mean S.E.

    (3) 15-29 11 80 4.7 . 8.4 (7.4 ) (6.7 ) (6.4 ) ( 3.2)

  • 58

    3.2.4 5

    (1) 15 - 29 1 80 44

    15 - 29 70 - 80 30 30 10

    (15 - 29 ) 68 10

    Mean S.E. 9.60.09 7.30.08 5.20.06 4.10.05 3.50.05 2.50.12 6.90.001N 1,249 2,549 2,634 3,692 2,178 439 12,741

    Mean S.E 9.60.12 6.80.10 4.90.08 3.70.07 3.10.07 2.30.16 6.20.01N 793 1,730 1,746 2,311 1,613 318 8,511

    Mean S.E 9.40.10 7.00.09 5.20.07 4.60.06 4.00.07 3.10.15 6.60.01 N 985 1,879 1,832 2,601 1,552 359 9,208 Mean S.E 10.20.14 8.10.12 5.80.11 4.00.08 3.50.08 2.40.18 7.40.002

    N 675 1,136 1,043 1,555 1,122 193 5,724 Mean S.E 10.90.23 8.30.18 6.60.16 5.70.19 5.00.22 5.00.59 8.60.003

    N 235 538 642 549 314 58 2,336 Mean S.E 9.70.05 7.30.04 5.30.04 4.20.03 3.60.03 2.70.08 6.80.001

    N 3,937 7,832 7,897 10,708 6,779 1,367 38,520

    3.2

    15-29 30-44 45-59 60-69 70-79 80+

    3,982 7,923 7,992 10,976 6,961 1,401 (%) 0.9 2.6 5.0 13.7 20.4 44.3 (%) 31.0 66.8 80.1 77.7 74.3 50.8 (%) 47.4 19.9 10.0 5.5 3.8 3.9/ (%) 7.6 3.8 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 (%) 9.5 6.8 3.2 2.1 0.9 0.4 (%) 3.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

    3.3

    15-29 30-44 45-59 60-69 70-79 80+

  • 59

    (2) 60 5 15 - 29 64

    60 20 15 - 29 2 80

    1,924 3,984 4,578 5,754 3,625 720 (%) 1.1 1.6 3.3 11.1 15.4 36.4 (%) 19.3 49.0 68.4 69.7 70.8 53.0 (%) 46.8 25.8 16.0 11.5 9.6 7.5/. (%) 10.3 8.2 4.3 2.0 0.7 0.5 (%) 19.6 15.2 7.7 5.5 2.9 1.7 (%) 2.9 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.9

    2,058 3,939 3,414 5,222 3,336 681 (%) 0.9 3.0 5.7 14.7 22.1 47.0 (%) 34.7 72.8 84.5 80.5 75.6 50.0 (%) 47.6 17.9 7.7 3.4 1.8 2.7/ (%) 6.8 2.3 0.5 0.3 0 0 (%) 6.4 3.9 1.5 0.9 0.3 0 (%) 3.7 0.1 0 0.2 0.3 0.3

    3.4

    15-29 30-44 45-59 60-69 70-79 80+

    (3) 15 - 29 26 18, 9, 8, 5 9 80 . 9

  • 60

    1,255 2,556 2,652 3,739 2,201 442 (%) 0.8 2.0 4.9 12.4 19.3 41.9 (%) 27.0 62.9 79.6 79.2 75.5 53.3 (%) 47.5 22.5 10.9 5.6 3.3 4.2/ (%) 11.6 5.1 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 (%) 11.3 7.2 2.6 1.8 0.9 0.0 (%) 1.9 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.6

    815 179 1,799 2,471 1,728 338 (%) 2.6 5.3 10.4 23.6 29.4 59.6 (%) 27.4 69.9 77.3 69.5 66.4 36.3 (%) 53.8 16.4 8.5 4.7 3.2 3.2/ (%) 6.3 3.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 (%) 9.2 5.4 3.1 1.5 0.7 0.4 (%) 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4

    999 1,892 1,854 2,662 1,591 369 (%) 0.2 1.7 2.5 9.2 14.3 36.0 (%) 39.2 74.5 86.7 83.5 81.6 59.5 (%) 43.7 16.8 8.0 4.5 3.1 3.9/ (%) 5.0 2.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 (%) 4.9 4.6 2.1 2.1 0.8 0.0 (%) 7.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5

    678 1,142 1,044 1,555 1,127 194 (%) 0.9 2.5 3.5 12.9 22.0 47.1 (%) 24.5 55.4 76.6 79.0 73.3 49.7 (%) 49.2 27.5 13.1 5.9 3.9 2.7/ (%) 9.4 4.3 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 (%) 14.3 10.2 5.4 1.6 0.7 0.3 (%) 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3

    235 539 643 549 314 58 (%) 0.8 2.3 3.3 11.7 16.7 27.5 (%) 19.1 45.7 58.1 61.1 61.0 49.5 (%) 45.2 23.2 17.9 15.7 15.3 11.9/ (%) 8.2 10.9 11.5 3.2 0.9 2.1 (%) 25.7 17.9 9.1 7.8 5.0 9.1 (%) 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.0

    15-29 30-44 45-59 60-69 70-79 80+

    3.5

  • 61

    3.3

    5,6,7

    3 15 - 59 60

    (1) 15 -59 19 73 8 60 3 64 33

    15 - 29 70 44 2 80

    5 , , 25396 , 25417 , , , 2543

    3.6 15-29 30-44 45-59 60-69 70-79 80+ (%) 70.6 13.1 3.5 2.1 1.5 0.6 28.6

    (%) 28.1 82.8 92.0 87.0 77.7 58.8 66.4//(%) 1.3 4.1 4.5 11.0 20.9 40.6 5.0 2,151 3,710 3,645 5,330 3,379 693 18,908

    (%) 43.8 7.9 5.7 4.3 4.3 1.9 17.9 (%) 53.4 85.2 77.0 57.1 36.6 18.6 67.7//(%) 2.8 7.0 17.2 38.7 59.1 79.4 14.5 1,831 4,217 4,347 5,644 3,583 710 20,332

    (2) 80

  • 62

    1,076 1,824 1,961 2,729 1,771 361 9,722N=9,722 (%) 76.6 18.1 5.2 2.0 2.1 0.8 31.6

    (%) 22.1 76.9 89.6 87.7 77.9 57.4 63.0//(%) 1.3 5.0 5.2 10.3 20.0 41.7 5.5

    849 2,163 2,618 3,025 1,854 360 10,869N=10,869 (%) 58.0 13.2 8.2 6.2 5.9 3.3 23.7

    (%) 38.2 76.5 72.2 55.0 37.0 21.2 59.7//(%) 3.8 10.3 19.6 38.8 57.2 75.5 16.6

    1,075 1,886 1,684 2,601 1,608 332 9,186N=9,186 (%) 68.7 11.5 2.9 2.1 1.2 0.5 27.6

    (%) 30.0 84.7 92.9 86.7 77.6 59.3 67.5//(%) 1.3 3.8 4.2 11.2 21.1 40.2 4.9

    982 2,054 1,729 2,619 1,729 350 9,463N=9,463 (%) 39.3 6.0 4.7 3.5 3.8 1.5 15.8

    (%) 58.3 88.2 79.0 57.8 36.4 17.8 70.5//(%) 2.5 5.8 16.3 38.6 59.8 80.7 13.7

    3.7

    15-29 30-44 45-59 60-69 70-79 80+

    (3) 4 70 .

    28.6 65.6 5.8 6,391 20.1 63.2 16.7 6,452 24.2 64.4 11.5 12,843

    26.1 68.1 5.9 4,339 15.9 69.8 14.4 4,603 20.9 69.0 10.3 8,942

    28.4 67.3 4.1 4,603 14.7 72.2 13.1 4,771 21.5 69.8 8.8 9,374

    30.3 64.8 4.8 2,683 21.0 64.6 14.4 3,060 25.6 64.7 9.7 5,743

    36.0 59.9 4.1 892 28.6 57.8 17.7 1,446 32.0 58.8 9.2 2,338

    3.8

    (%)

    (%)

    // (%)

  • 63

    3.4

    3.4.1 8 9

    1) 15 7 1 1

    2) 30

    3) 15 30

    4) 5)

    60

    (1) 71 53 7 8 13 12

    15 - 29 57 43 30 - 44 80 78 45 - 59

    60 60 - 69 35 14 70 - 79 80 38, 19 8 3

    8 9 ..2548

  • 64

    (2) 30 - 44 90 70 77 59

    15-29 57.4 11.0 9.6 0.6 19.8 1.6 2,15130-44 80.5 3.3 14.5 0.5 0.0 1.2 3,70945-59 77.6 4.6 15.1 1.1 0.1 1.5 3,645 71.1 6.5 12.8 0.7 7.5 1.4 9,505

    15-29 43.0 11.2 7.4 14.0 23.2 1.2 1,83130-44 61.8 5.5 15.0 15.8 0.1 1.9 4,21445-59 54.2 7.0 13.7 22.5 0.0 2.6 4,347 53.1 7.9 11.9 16.8 8.4 1.8 10,392

    3.9

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    3.6

  • 65

    15-29 58.6 11.2 2.3 0.5 26.1 1.5 1,075 30-44 90.4 3.7 4.4 0.8 0.0 0.7 1,823

    45-59 83.2 8.3 4.5 2.1 0.0 1.9 1,960 77.0 7.6 3.6 1.0 9.4 1.3 4,858

    15-29 48.1 9.7 1.6 11.2 28.4 1.0 84930-44 69.9 5.8 4.4 18.7 0.1 1.2 2,16245-59 59.6 7.7 3.3 27.9 0.0 1.4 2,618 59.8 7.6 3.2 18.7 9.6 1.2 5,629

    15-29 57.0 10.9 11.9 0.7 17.8 1.7 1,076 30-44 77.3 3.2 17.7 0.4 0.0 1.3 1,886

    45-59 75.6 3.2 19.0 0.8 0.1 1.3 1,685 69.2 6.1 15.8 0.6 6.8 1.5 4,647

    15-29 41.4 11.7 9.2 14.9 21.5 1.3 98230-44 58.9 5.4 18.7 14.8 0.1 2.2 2,05245-59 52.0 6.8 17.8 20.4 0.0 3.1 1,729 50.8 8.0 15.0 16.2 8.0 2.1 4,763

    3.10

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (3) . .

    3.11

    84.3 6.0 1.2 1.2 6.0 1.4 3,227 64.9 6.7 2.3 16.6 7.6 1.8 3,236 74.4 6.4 1.7 9.1 6.8 1.6 6,463

    70.7 5.2 14.3 1.0 7.6 1.1 2,123 54.4 8.6 12.2 14.1 8.2 2.3 2,286 62.5 6.9 13.3 7.7 7.9 1.7 4,409

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

  • 66

    (4) 12 1, 2 , 3 4 5,6, 7 8, 9 10 11,12

    3.4.2 7 10

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    56.3 7.9 25.7 0.2 8.2 1.7 2,329 39.8 9.3 24.2 16.5 8.4 1.8 2,415 48.0 8.6 25.0 8.3 8.3 1.8 4,744

    86.3 4.4 0.6 0.8 6.6 1.3 1,313 62.3 5.8 0.8 20.3 9.0 1.8 1,551 74.2 5.1 0.7 10.7 7.8 1.5 2,864

    76.6 10.2 0.5 0.4 11.8 0.4 513 59.9 6.6 0.3 21.6 11.0 0.5 904 67.8 8.3 0.4 11.6 11.4 0.5 1,417

    3.7

    10 ,

  • 67

    (1) 5 30 - 69 3.7, 3.4 3.5 ( 3.12)

    21 15 - 29 30 40 30 - 44 , 45 - 59, 60 - 79 48 80

    43 15 - 29 10

    7 - 8 60 1

    10 18 60 - 69 70 - 79 9

    1 33 80

    2,218 6,225 5,654 5,055 1,792 136 21,080 (%) 1.7 3.7 3.4 3.5 2.9 2.4 3.1 (%) 20.9 32.1 40.3 42.9 42.2 48.4 31.8 (%) 42.5 27.2 16.4 8.8 6.2 3.2 27.3 (%) 6.5 7.4 6.9 0.9 0.4 0.6 6.5 (%) 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 (%) 10.4 10.2 11.9 17.6 18.4 8.9 11.2(%) 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 3.0 0.9 (%) 16.5 17.8 19.7 25.1 29.1 33.4 18.6

    3.12 15-29 30-44 45-59 60-69 70-79 80+

    3.4.3 11

    ILO (International Labor Organization) 10 1) 2) 3) 4) 5)

    11 ,

  • 68

    6) 7) 8) 9) 10)

    46, 54 58 15 - 29, 30 - 44 45 - 59

    1 15 - 29 3 4 2 3 5 - 6 15 - 29 3 - 4 45 - 59

    6, 8 10 15 - 29, 30 - 44 45 - 59 6, 5 3

    15-29 1.2 3.1 8.0 2.5 5.7 5.4 5.8 7.1 47.8 13.5 1,28530-44 4.3 3.1 4.7 2.5 3.7 8.3 4.8 2.7 53.4 12.6 3,19245-59 5.2 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.6 10.8 2.8 1.4 57.5 12.7 2,929 3.6 2.9 5.1 2.4 4.0 8.1 4.6 3.7 52.8 12.9 7,406

    15-29 1.5 3.7 0.6 8.0 7.5 6.1 7.8 5.1 45.0 14.7 93530-44 2.3 2.9 0.4 2.7 5.2 8.6 6.4 3.7 53.9 13.8 3,00945-59 2.1 2.6 0.2 0.8 4.0 9.7 3.1 1.5 59.2 16.9 2,733 2.0 3.1 0.4 3.8 5.6 8.2 6.0 3.5 52.7 14.8 6,677

    3.13

    /

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    6.5 4.8 7.4 4.4 6.0 2.6 4.7 4.0 44.2 15.3 3,881 4.8 4.3 0.8 6.7 10.7 2.1 4.7 3.6 44.0 18.4 3,658 5.7 4.6 4.4 5.5 8.2 2.4 4.7 3.8 44.1 16.8 7,539 2.6 2.2 4.2 1.7 3.3 10.0 4.5 3.6 55.9 12.0 3,525 0.9 2.6 0.3 2.6 3.6 10.5 6.5 3.5 56.0 13.5 3,019

    1.8 2.4 2.4 2.1 3.4 10.2 5.4 3.5 55.9 12.7 6,544

    3.14

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%) (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

  • 69

    3.1 2.2 5.2 1.9 3.5 12.5 4.1 7.0 44.3 16.2 2,756 1.4 2.1 0.3 4.0 5.7 10.4 6.5 6.8 45.4 17.5 2,284 2.3 2.1 2.9 2.9 4.5 11.5 5.2 6.9 44.8 16.8 5,040

    2.8 3.2 5.3 1.5 4.8 6.9 4.0 3.0 58.3 10.2 1,596 1.2 2.6 0.7 3.3 3.6 7.1 6.8 1.8 60.0 12.9 1,503 2.1 2.9 3.2 2.4 4.2 7.0 5.3 2.5 59.1 11.4 3,099

    4.4 1.9 4.7 2.0 3.9 7.4 6.3 1.8 53.4 14.1 1,489 2.0 4.2 0.3 1.6 6.2 8.9 6.7 2.4 51.7 16.1 1,276

    3.3 3.0 2.7 1.8 5.0 8.1 6.4 2.0 52.6 15.0 2,765 4.1 4.7 4.1 4.2 2.8 5.0 3.2 1.4 66.0 4.6 1,157

    3.6 3.0 0.1 5.3 4.3 6.4 3.0 2.1 65.6 6.5 1,055 3.9 4.0 2.4 4.7 3.4 5.6 3.1 1.7 65.8 5.4 2,212

    3.2 7.0 9.3 4.9 8.8 0.3 4.3 5.9 31.9 24.4 408 4.0 4.4 1.2 12.8 13.5 0.0 4.2 1.9 32.9 25.1 559 3.6 5.7 5.5 8.6 11.0 0.2 4.3 4.0 32.4 24.7 967

    3.15

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    (%)

    3.5 2

    3.5.1 3.8 15 - 29 4,500 6,500 7,200 30 - 44 45 -59 15 - 59 1,000 - 2,000

    4,500 60 - 69 80 1

  • 70

    3.16

    15-29 4,515 1,611 3,480 1,263 4,025 2,87430-44 6,544 3,392 4,651 3,473 5,638 6,86545-59 7,252 3,234 4,446 3,440 5,872 6,67460-69 4,428 4,279 3,211 4,223 3,803 8,50270-79 2,944 2,344 1,932 2,444 2,384 4,78880+ 2,603 402 996 451 1,616 853 5,791 15,262 3,981 15,294 4,909 30,556

    ()

    ()

    ()

    3.8

  • 71

    3.5.2 2544 1,230 12 13

    3.5.3 10 15 - 59 60 20 70 - 79 80 50 60 64 83 80 15 15.9 29.4

    5,209 7,535 7,348 5,338 3,513 2,199 5,846 969 2,309 2,322 3,206 1,731 304 10,841

    3,580 4,801 5,226 3,454 2,240 1,672 3,897 622 1,638 1,618 1,968 1,266 207 7,319

    2,880 4,412 5,019 3,354 2,220 1,638 3,650 592 1,408 1,317 1,833 1,003 220 6,373

    5,845 7,871 11,025 5,134 3,770 1,672 6,926 498 1,020 886 1,054 557 78 4,093

    6,261 10,612 10,971 7,497 5,848 6,773 8,906 193 490 531 441 231 44 1,930

    4,558 6,512 7,151 4,561 3,048 2,115 5,259 2,874 6,865 6,674 8,502 4,788 853 30,556

    3.17 (median)

    15-29 30-44 45-59 60-69 70-79 80+ () () () () () () ()

    12 911 (2541) 1,230

    ..254413 Leading Health Indicator-Healthy People 2010 Implementation. www.healthypeople.gov/

  • 72

    15 5 2.9 7.9

    3.6

    (1) 4

    1 15 - 29 4 4 70 - 79 80 4

    2 15 - 29 2 30 - 44 45 - 59 80 1 4

    3.9

  • 73

    15-29 2,120 739 1,808 788 3,928 1,527() 4.7 1.8 4.8 1.7 4.7 1.8S.D. 1.8 1.5 1.9 1.3 1.9 1.4

    30-44 3,641 2,548 4,170 2,926 7,811 5,474() 4.5 2.6 4.5 2.3 4.5 2.5S.D. 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.7 1.4

    45-59 3,582 2,207 4,292 2,180 7,874 4,387() 4.3 2.3 4.2 1.8 4.3 2.1S.D. 1.8 1.5 1.9 1.4 1.8 1.5

    60-69 5,265 5,283 5,571 5,598 10,836 10,881() 4.2 1.1 4.1 0.8 4.1 0.9S.D. 2.2 1.5 2.2 1.3 2.2 1.4

    70-79 3,348 3,353 3,539 3,551 6,887 6,904() 4.1 0.7 4.0 0.5 4.0 0.6S.D. 2.2 1.2 2.2 1.2 2.2 1.2

    80+ 682 685 701 703 1,383 1,388() 4.0 0.5 4.0 0.4 4.0 0.4S.D. 2.0 1.2 2.2 1.4 2.1 1.3

    18,638 14,815 20,081 15,746 38,719 30,561() 4.5 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 1.9S.D. 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.6

    3.18

    3.10

    : S.D. = Standard Deviation

  • 74

    (2) 5 15 - 29 4 80

    () 4.5 2.0 4.6 1.7 4.6 1.8S.D. 2.1 1.7 2.2 1.5 2.2 1.6 9,581 7,594 10,760 8,347 20,341 15,941

    () 4.5 2.1 4.4 1.7 4.4 1.9S.D. 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.8 1.6 9,057 7,221 9,321 7,399 18,378 14,620

    () 4.5 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 1.9S.D. 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.6 18,638 14,815 20,081 15,746 38,719 30,561

    3.19

    3.11

  • 75

    (3) 5 4 4

    2 2 ( 3.12)

    () 4.5 1.9 4.6 1.7 4.6 1.8S.D. 2.0 1.8 2.1 1.5 2.1 1.6 6,358 4,900 6,402 4,915 12,760 9,815

    () 4.0 1.8 4.0 1.5 4.0 1.6S.D. 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 4,177 3,302 4,462 3,543 8,639 6,845

    () 4.7 2.3 4.6 1.8 4.6 2.0S.D. 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.6 4,548 3,700 4,722 3,805 9,270 7,505

    () 4.4 2.0 4.4 1.8 4.4 1.9S.D. 1.7 1.4 1.9 1.5 1.8 1.5 2,664 2,247 3,049 2,466 5,713 4,713

    () 4.7 2.1 5.1 1.7 4.9 1.9S.D. 2.5 1.6 2.6 1.4 2.6 1.5 891 666 1,446 1,017 2,337 1,683

    () 4.5 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 1.9S.D. 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.6 18,638 14,815 20,081 15,746 38,719 30,561

    3.20

    : S.D. = Standard Deviation

  • 76

    3.12

    (4)

  • 77

    4

    2 10 15 80 (prevalence) (screeningtest)

    4.1 .. 2542 14,,15

    3

    - - -

    14 The Thai Working Group on Burden of Diesease and Injuries. Burden of Disease and Injuries in Thailand, Priority setting forPolicy. Ministry of Public health, November 200215 . ..2542 ThailandsRisk Burden in 1999. , 2004.

  • 78

    -

    - - - - (Body Mass Index-BMI) - ( hemoglobin hematocrit)

    4.1.1

    16 2 (pattern of drinking) (average volume of consumption) 2 3

    - (moderate drinking) plague Acinar cell

    - (intoxication) (central nervous system)

    - (alcohol dependence)

    (binge drinking) 15

    -

    16 Rehm J, Room R, Monteiro M, Gmel G et al. Alcohol Use in Ezzati M, Lopez AD, Rogers A and Murray CJL (edited) ComparativeQuantification of Health Risks. Global and Regional Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risk Factors. Vol. 1, WorldHealth Organization, 2004.

  • 79

    - 12 1 ( )

    - ()

    (% alcohol content) ( CC.)

    % - 28.0-

    6.4 6.4 5.0 6.0 5.0 6.0 6.5 5.2 5.6

    - 28.0- 11.0- 5.0- 40.0- 40.0

  • 80

    ( .) (CC.)

    12 258,9,13 504,10,11 803,7,14 1002 1506 1751 2005 27015 400 1 (peg) 30 1 330

    (ethanol) Meta-analysis 60 17

    (Ethanal) ()

    1- 0 0 2 - (Responsible) >0 0 40 20 < 40 4 - (hazardous) >60 >40

    ethanol

    - () ( )

    17 Rehm J, Room, Monteiro M, Gmel G et al. Alcohol Use in Ezzati M, Lopez AD, Rogers A and Murrays CJL(edited) ComparativeQuantification of Health Risks. Global and Regional Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risks Factors Vol.1, WorldHealth Oganization 2004.

    4.1

  • 81

    - ( CC.)

    - ethanol content (ethanol specific density) ethanol

    () = (//) x 0.79(ethanol content) x * 0.79 ethanol (ethanol specific density) ( )

    99 / x 4 48

    (? ? ) (0-20 drinks)

    () 4,612 29.6 (1,367 ) 12,744 11.4 (1,457 ) ethanol 2

    ethanol 4.1 (//) ( ethanol)

    ethanol ()

  • 82

    4.2 function

    6.513.88.58.99.310.525.4

    4.2

    12

    (%)

    40

    8,295 4,62212,768 2,6881,5885,567911

    5416371,081240147583231

    (underestimate)

    15

    3 2 70 15-29 21.5 0.6-2.6 95% Confidence Interval (CI) ( 4.3)

  • 83

    (N = 18,897)- (Abstainer) 21.7 20.4 29.5 49.2 63.7 78.0 27.4

    (19.2, 24.4)b (18.0, 23.0) (27.3, 31.8) (46.9, 51.9) (60.7, 66.6) (74.1, 81.5) (25.8, 29.1)- (Responsible) 54.3 57.9 55.5 43.0 31.2 18.4 53.4

    (51.1, 57.3) (55.2, 60.5) (53.0, 58.0) (40.5, 45.6) (28.3, 34.2) (15.3, 21.8) (51.6, 55.3)- (Harmful) 6.1 6.9 4.3 2.0 1.0 0.9 5.4

    (5.0, 7.5) (5.9, 8.0) (3.5, 5.3) (1.5, 2.5) (0.7, 1.4) (0.3, 2.6) (4.8, 6.1)- 15.4 12.2 8.3 3.2 1.4 0.1 11.2(Hazardous) (13.2, 17.9) (10.7, 13.8) (7.2, 9.6) (2.6, 3.8) (1.0, 2.0) (0.0, 0.6) (10.1, 12.4)- 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.6

    (1.6, 3.9) (1.9, 3.7) (1.8, 3.2) (2.0, 3.4) (2.1, 3.7) (1.4, 4.8) (2.0, 3.3) (N = 20,313) 64.2 56.7 65.3 81.1 87.4 90.0 64.9- (Abstainer) (60.2, 68.0) (53.7, 59.7) (62.9, 67.6) (78.8, 83.3) (85.6, 88.9) (87.0, 92.3) (62.6, 67.2)- (Responsible) 30.6 37.8 29.4 16.0 10.5 8.8 30.2

    (27.1, 34.4) (34.8, 40.8) (27.2, 31.8) (14.1, 18.0) (9.1, 12.2) (6.5, 11.8) (27.9, 32.5)- (Harmful) 0.7 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.9

    (0.3, 1.3) (0.7, 1.4) (0.9, 1.7) (0.3, 0.9) (0.2, 0.8) (0.0, 1.4) (0.7, 1.1)- 1.9 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.3 1.2(Hazardous) (1.2, 2.8) (0.8, 1.7) (0.7, 1.4) (0.3, 0.8) (0.1, 0.6) (0.0, 1.3) (1.0, 1.6)- 2.7 3.3 3.0 1.9 1.4 0.6 2.8

    (1.9, 3.7) (2.4, 4.6) (2.2, 4.3) (1.4, 2.6) (1.0, 1.9) (0.2, 1.6) (2.2, 3.6)

    a. 4.1b. ( ) 95% Confidence Interval

    4.3

    a ()

    15-29 30-44 45-59 60-69 70-79 80+

  • 84

    15 16.6 2.1 ( 4.4)

    20 17.1 14.3 15 4.6 2

    13 () 9 ( ) 24.5 2 1 18.5 18.2 11 ( ) 12.8 4.6 6 ( ) 3 ( ) 10( ) 3.5, 3.3 3.2 11 12

    4.4 15 a

    95%CI 95%CI

    a. 20 40

    15.4, 18.314.9, 18.1

    14.9, 19.313.0, 18.017.1, 22.711.0, 17.412.4, 18.015.3, 17.9

    9,7199,178

    6,3904,6044,3392,672

    89218,897

    2.81.9

    2.12.12.80.14.62.1

    2.2, 3.31.3, 2.4

    1.5, 2.71.2, 3.12.0, 3.4

    9.03e-06, 0.23.2, 6.01.7, 2.5

    10,8589,455

    6,4534,7674,5983,0491,446

    20,313

    16.816.5

    17.115.519.914.315.216.6

  • 85

    4.1 15

    4.2 15

  • 86

    () 4.6 15-29 15 80 ( 4.5) normaldistribution

    4.3 15

    15-29 15.7 0.01-1674.6 1,581 0.3 0.01-382.6 59530-44 13.2 0.01-2704.1 2,792 0.4 0.01-954.1 1,62345-59 8.3 0.01-1075.9 2,383 0.4 0.01-373.3 1,29560-69 4.3 0.01-1016.3 2,475 0.3 0.01-367.7 90970-79 3.3 0.01-1446.1 1,078 0.3 0.01-179.3 39480+ 2.3 0.01-79.3 132 0.5 0.01-68.1 59

    11.8 0.01-2704.1 10,441 0.4 0.01-954.1 4,875

    4.5 ()

    ()

    / ()

    ()

    / ()

    ()

  • 87

    12 (binge drinking)

    8 8 40 28 4 2 8 (630 CC.) 5

    4.6 15 12 12 1 3 80 3 92 1 15-29 13

    4.6 12 15 ()

    15-29 13.0 1-365 1,124 4.0 1-365 16430-44 11.0 1-365 1,758 3.0 1-365 35645-59 10.0 1-365 1,021 3.0 1-365 21760-69 5.0 1-365 651 2.0 1-365 7870-79 3.0 1-365 200 4.0 1-365 2680+ 4.0 1-36 9 92.0 2-95 3

    12.0 1-365 4,763 3.0 1-365 844

    ()

    ()

    ()

  • 88

    70 15-29 24 30-44 60 18 80 ( 4.7)

    ( 29) ( 23.8) ( 15.2)

    12 15 50 13 () 51-63 8.5-29 1 ( ) 10 ( ) 8 ( ) 12 ( ) ( 12 )

    4.7 12 15

    ()

    15-2930-4445-5960-6970-7980+

    69.760.241.625.018.66.557.0

    1,6052,8522,4382,5851,143145

    10,768

    24181576219

    639

    1,7031,369

    97743666

    5,190

  • 89

    58.456.6

    61.555.155.556.959.057.1

    5,3595,409

    3,5022,9702,5581,279

    45910,768

    22.817.2

    18.715.2 23.815.529.018.6

    2,7652,425

    1,5541,6671,365

    267337

    5,190

    4.8 12 15

    4.4

  • 90

    4.5

    4.7

    4.6

  • 91

    4.9 86.7 78.7 ( 64.5) 40 ( 52.0)

    3

    65 15 27 15 16.6 2.1

    20 40

    9 24.5 12

    15 3.2 39.7 / 6.3 / 15 - 29 51.8 / 7.9 /

    (binge drinking) 15 - 29 40 12 3 29 4 50 19

    50 19

    64.5 10,944 36.9 5,29131.2 10,897 16.8 5,31686.7 11,025 78.7 5,40621.2 10,979 20.2 5,3588.1 10,981 23.2 5,37952.0 10,984 22.3 5,4137.2 10,981 2.9 5,390

    4.9 15

    40

  • 92

    2

    4.1.2 (tobacco)

    (pipe) 18 19

    3

    18 Ezzati M, Lopez AD. Smoking and Oral Tobacco Use in Ezzati M, Lopez AD, Rogers A and Murrey CJL(edited) ComparativeQuantification of Health Risks. Global and Regional Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected major Risk Factors. Vol.1, WorldHealth Organization, 200419 Doll R and R Peto. Cigarette Smoking Bronchial Carcinoma Does and Time Relationship among RegularSmokers and Lifelong Non-smoker. J. Epidemiol Community Health, 1978, 32: 303-313.

    4.8 ()

    15

  • 93

    15

    3 (current smoker) 100

    (regular smoker) 100

    (former or ex-smoker)

    4.10 20 49.1 2.7 90 30-59 60-79

    15-29 45.1 41.7 6.3 2,151 1.1 0.9 0.7 1,831(42.3, 47.8)a (38.7, 44.6) (4.7, 7.9) (0.6, 1.6) (0.4, 1.4) (0.2, 1.3)

    30-44 55.1 51.5 13.8 3,708 2.1 1.8 0.5 4,216(52.6, 57.6) (49.1, 53.9) (11.9, 15.6) (1.5, 2.6) (1.3, 2.3) (0.3, 0.7)

    45-59 50.2 47.2 21.6 3,647 4.0 3.5 1.8 4,350(47.8, 52.5) (44.9, 49.6) (19.6, 23.7) (3.0, 5.0) (2.6, 4.5) (1.4, 2.3)

    60-69 44.8 42.7 28.6 5,327 5.5 5.0 3.9 5,642(42.3, 47.2) (40.3, 45.2) (26.6, 3.1) (4.3, 6.7) (3.9, 6.1) (3.0, 4.8)

    70-79 40.8 38.2 33.9 3,377 5.8 5.4 5.3 3,579(38.3, 43.3) (35.6, 40.8) (31.6, 36.1) (4.6, 7.0) (4.3, 6.5) (4.2, 6.4)

    80+ 32.5 29.5 37.0 690 3.4 2.6 6.6 710(27.9, 36.9) (25.0, 34.1) (32.1, 41.8) (1.2, 5.7) (0.7, 4.6) (4.3, 8.9)

    49.1 45.9 15.2 18,900 2.7 2.3 1.5 20,328(47.6, 50.6) (44.5, 47.3) (14.0, 16.3) (2.2, 3.2) (1.9, 2.8) (1.2, 1.8)

    a. ( ) 95% Confidence Interval

    4.10 15

    ()

    (%) (%)

  • 94

    (hand-rolled cigarette) 12 8 ( 14 /) 30-59 (15-44 ) 5 2 ( 4.11)

    18 23 15-29 .. 2498-2532 16.7 16.3 30-44 18 22 20 ( 15-29 ) 16 ( 4.12) 9

    a. ( ) (Standard Deviation)

    4.11

    () (S.D)a (S.D)

    15-2930-4445-5960-6970-7980+

    11.1 (7.8)13.6 (8.7)13.6 (9.4)10.4 (8.0)9.1 (8.3)8.9 (8.6)12.5 (8.7)

    9.0 (6.7)9.4 (8.9)7.3 (5.7)6.6 (7.6)5.5 (6.4)5.1 (6.8)7.7 (7.3)

    7811,7371,5011,9591,077171

    7,362

    209316528218317754

  • 95

    : ( ) (Standard Diviation)

    () (S.D)a (S.D)

    15-2930-4445-5960-6970-7980+

    16.7 (2.6)18.2 (3.8)19.4 (5.8)19.6 (7.1)19.3 (7.2)19.9 (8.9)18.1 (4.6)

    16.3 (2.7)22.2 (6.5)24.8 (9.5)25.9 (13.2)23.9 (12.0)22.4 (11.7)23.1 (7.3)

    8081,7851,5271,9881,084 1707,362

    209316528218317760

    4.12 15

    ( 54.0) ( 50.5) ( 5.1) ( 3.6) 46 2.3 ( 4.13)

    - 38.6 36.8, 40.4 9,721 2.8 2.4, 3.3 10,861- 48.3 46.6, 50.0 9,179 2.2 1.6, 2.7 9,467

    - 40.6 37.9, 43.3 6,391 3.0 2.4, 3.7 6,456- 50.5 47.9, 53.1 4,605 0.7 0.2, 1.2 4,771- 40.8 38.0, 43.6 4,339 5.1 3.2, 6.9 4,602- 54.0 50.1, 57.9 2,673 0.9 0.5, 1.4 3,053- 35.4 31.7, 39.1 892 3.6 2.6, 4.6 1,446

    45.9 44.5, 47.3 18,900 2.3 1.9, 2.8 20,328

    4.13 15

    % 95% CI % 95% CI

  • 96

    13 ()5,6 ( ) 11,12 ( ) 50 8 ( 8.1) 10 ( ) 4.5 ( 3.6)

    4.9 15

    4.10 15

  • 97

    15 49

    46 90 30 - 59

    12 8

    15 -29 16 30 - 44 22

    15 50 5,6,11 12 8 8 10

    4.1.3 (Physical activities)

    (ischemic stroke) 20

    3

    (work-related physical activity) () ()

    10

    20 Bull FC, Armstrong TP, Dixon T, Ham S. et al. Physical Inactivity. Ch. In Ezzati M, Lopez AD, Rogers A and Murray CJL (edited).Comparative Quantification of Health Risks, Global and Reginal Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risk Factors. Vol.World Health Organization 2004

  • 98

    3

    1 (inactive)

    2 (insufficiently active) (Moderate physical activity) 150 (Vigorous physical activity) 60

    3 (sufficiently active) 150 60

    (vigorous physical activity) :

    :

    (moderate physical activity) :

    : 10 : (inactive) - 10

    - -

  • 99

    21 (WHO: Global Physical ActivityQuestionaire) Metabolic Equivalent Time (MET) MET ()

    5 1. (vigorous work)2. (moderate work)3. (moderate travel)4. (vigorous leisure or exercise)5. (moderate exercise)

    Metabolic Equivalent Time (MET) MET

    1 MET = 1 kcal /kg / =

    MET 4.14

    MET = 4.0 MET = 8.0

    MET = 4.0 MET = 4.0

    MET = 8.0

    4.14 MET

    MET ()

    : WHO Department of Chronic Diseases and Health Promotion Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ)

    21 Bull FC, Armstrong TP, Dixon T, Ham S. et al. Physical Inactivity. Ch. In Ezzati M, Lopez AD, Rogers A and Murray CJL (edited).Comparative Quantification of Health Risks, Global and Reginal Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risk Factors. Vol.World Health Organization 2004

  • 100

    () ( MET minutes) missing value 4.15

    ( ) 4.16

    (High) - + MET min > 1,500> 3

    - ++ MET min > 3,000++ > 7

    (Moderate) - + > 3 > 60

    - ++ > 5 >150

    - ++ MET min > 600++ > 5

    (Low) - MET min High Moderate (inactive)

    4.15 ()

    / /

  • 101

    () (Moderate travel) ()

    METminute

    MET minutes = ( x 4) +

    ( x 8)

    4.17

    4.16 ()

    (/)

    0-7200-7200-3600-3600-360

    - (Vigorous work)- (Moderate work)- (Moderate travel)- (Vigorous leisure)- (Moderate leisure)

  • 102

    18,396 19,653 0.6

    active

    70 (inactive) 20-24 70 70 50 ( 4.18)

    0.771.521.711.441.35

    4.17

    %

    10,66014,09218,5556,93812,504

    82214317100169

    4.18 (physical activity)

    (N = 18,883)- 5.0 5.6 7.4 8.5 15.1 33.0 6.8

    (4.0, 6.4)b (4.7, 6.6) (6.4, 8.6) (7.3, 9.9) (13.1, 17.3) (28.7, 37.5) (6.1, 7.6)- 17.3 12.7 11.0 11.2 15.0 18.3 14.0

    (15.2, 19.7) (11.3, 14.4) (9.6, 12.6) (10.0, 12.5) (13.4, 16.7) (14.9, 22.4) (12.9, 15.1)- 14.2 10.7 11.5 18.5 24.7 20.8 13.2

    (11.6, 17.3) (9.3, 12.3) (10.3, 12.9) (17.0, 20.1) (22.7, 26.7) (17.2, 24.8) (11.8, 14.8)- 62.8 70.4 69.5 61.5 44.8 27.9 65.5

    (58.8, 66.5) (67.5, 73.1) (67.2, 71.6) (59.3, 63.7) (42.2, 47.4) (23.9, 32.4) (63.2, 67.7)- 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6() (0.4, 1.2) (0.4, 0.9) (0.3, 0.8) (0.1, 0.4) (0.2, 0.8) (0.5, 0.8)

    ()15-29 30-44 45-59 60-69 70-79 80+

    a

  • 103

    15 (28.1 31.5 )

    (N = 20,299)- 11.5 8.4 9.1 14.5 28.6 51.7 11.8

    (0.9, 14.1) (7.0, 10.0) (7.8, 10.7) (12.9, 16.2) (26.3, 31.1) (46.8, 56.6) (10.6, 13.1)- 15.8 10.0 9.3 14.5 17.4 15.3 12.4

    (13.4, 18.6) (8.7, 11.4) (8.2, 10.5) (13.3, 15.9) (15.5, 19.5) (12.3, 18.8) (11.4, 13.6)- 19.6 15.1 16.1 23.6 24.9 16.4 17.8

    (17.3, 22.0) (13.5, 16.9) (14.4, 17.9) (22.1, 25.1) (23.2, 26.6) (13.1, 20.4) (16.6, 19.0)- 52.5 65.6 64.9 47.1 28.7 16.6 57.4

    (48.8, 56.2) (62.8, 68.4) (62.3, 67.4) (45.2, 48.9) (26.4, 31.0) (13.2, 20.6) (55.1, 59.6)- 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.6 () (0.2, 1.3) (0.6, 1.2) (0.4, 0.8) (0.2, 0.8) (0.2, 0.8) (0.5, 0.8)

    N = a

    b ( CI ) 95% Confidence Interval

    ()15-29 30-44 45-59 60-69 70-79 80+

    a

    4.19 15 a

    95% CI 95% CI

    26.118.9

    28.118.0

    24.4, 27.917.1, 20.7

    25.5, 30.815.0, 21.0

    9,4358,961

    6,1784,507

    26.323.5

    31.522.3

    24.2, 28.321.4, 25.7

    28.1, 35.019.1, 25.6

    10,5159,138

    6,4454,760

  • 104

    95% CI 95% CI

    20.513.923.420.7

    17.8, 23.29.7, 18.1

    20.8, 26.019.2, 22.2

    4,2182,615

    87818,396

    24.214.927.124.2

    21.0, 27.48.8, 21.0

    24.3, 30.022.4, 26.0

    4,5963,0521,446

    20,299

    a

    4.11

    4.12 (Physical inactivity)

  • 105

    3 ( ) 4 ( ) 35 1 ( ) 3 ( ) 13-14 15 21-24 ()

    15 21

    15 24

    1,2,3,4

    15 ,

    4.1.4

    22 (protective factor) (Ischemic heart disease) (stroke) meta-analysis 31 19 19 20 12 2

    22 Law and Morris 1998, World Cancer Research Fund and American Institute for Cancer Research 1997

  • 106

    400-600 23 ( 150 cc.) 1 80 5-7.5 (comparative risk assessment) 4.20

    3 1

    1 - 6-8 - 1 - 1/2 - 1 - 4

    4.20 (theoretical-minimum-risk)

    () (//)0-4 330 + 505-1 480 + 50

    15-29 600 + 5030-44 600 + 5045-59 600 + 5060-69 600 + 5070-7 600 + 50> 80 600 + 50

    Lock K, Pomerleau I, Causer L, McKee M. Low fruit and Vegetable consumption in Ezzati M et al eds. Comparative Quantification of HealthRisks, Global and Regional Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risk Factors. Vol. 1 WHO Geneva 2004

    23 Lock K, Pomerleau I,Causer L, Mckee M. Low fruit and Vegetable consumption in Ezzati M et al eds. Comparative Quantificationof Health Risks, Global and Regional Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risk Factors. Vol. WHO Geneva 2004

  • 107

    - 1 (150 cc.)

    - 1/2 = 1 (1 = 150 cc 1 )- 1 1 = 1 - 1/2 = 1

    1 = 80

    15

    400-800 5 3.5 268 3.4 283 80 200 // ( 4.21)

    4.21 15 ( 1 = 80 )

    ()

    / a /* (SD) b (SD) b

    15-2930-4445-5960-6970-7980+

    3.6 (2.5)3.4 (2.3)3.3 (2.2)3.0 (2.2)2.7 (1.9)2.5 (2.2)3.4 (2.4)

    285 (201)272 (185)261 (178)238 (175)216 (154)203 (174)268 (188)

    2,0543,5643,4885,1483,256664

    18,174

    (SD) b

    ()

    / a /*

    (SD) b (SD) b

    15-2930-4445-5960-69

    3.8 (2.5)3.7 (2.5)3.5 (2.4)3.1 (2.2)

    300 (201)293 (196)283 (194)245 (180)

    1,7774,0624,1805,418

    (SD) b

  • 108

    4.22 5 400 5 7.5 600 () 600 80 76.4 15-29

    ()

    / a /* (SD) b (SD) b

    70-7980+

    2.7 (2.0)2.4 (1.9)3.5 (2.4)

    215 (162)193 (149)283 (195)

    3,422670

    19,529 a

    b SD =( ) (standard Deviation)

    (N = 18,174) 77.4 80.0 81.3 84.1 87.6 89.1 80.3- 5 (74.4, 80.6)b (77.3, 82.6) (79.1, 83.3) (82.4, 85.6) (86.0, 91.9) (85.5, 91.9) (78.3, 82.1)- 5 15.5 14.6 13.6 11.4 9.4 7.6 14.2 7.5 (13.2, 17.8) (12.4, 17.0) (11.8, 15.5) (10.3, 12.6) (8.1, 10.8) (5.4, 10.4) (12.6, 15.7)- 7.5 7.0 5.4 5.1 4.6 2.8 3.4 5.7

    (5.5, 8.9) (4.4, 6.5) (4.2, 6.2) (3.6, 5.6) (2.1, 3.7) (2.1, 5.5) (4.8, 6.6) (N = 19,529)

    - 5 74.5 75.1 76.8 82.8 87.6 89.7 76.8(71.5,77.2) (72.5, 77.6) (74.5, 79.0) (80.8, 84.5) (85.7, 89.4) (86.1, 92.5) (74.8, 78.7)

    - 5 7.5 17.8 17.8 16.3 12.8 9.2 8.2 16.5

    (15.3, 20.6) (16.0, 19.7) (14.6, 18.2) (11.2, 13.9) (8.0, 10.5) (5.8, 11.4) (15.0, 18.0)- 7.5 7.7 7.2 6.9 4.7 3.2 2.1 6.7

    (6.3, 9.5) (5.9, 8.5) (5.8, 8.0) (3.9, 5.8) (2.4, 4.2) (1.2, 3.7) (5.9, 7.7)

    4.22

    // ()15-29 30-44 45-59 60-69 70-79 80+

    a , 1 = 80 b ( CI ) 95% Confidence Interval

  • 109

    ( 400 5 ) ( 84.3 83.3 ) 68.5 65 (4.24)

    75.8 9,358 71.7 10,477 81.4 8,816 78.0 9,052

    77.5 6,038 72.1 6,124 84.3 4,498 83.3 4,635 78.0 4,123 75.1 4,373 79.4 2,599 72.1 2,989 68.5 866 64.9 1,408 80.0 18,174 76.4 19,529

    4.23 15 (5 400 )

    4.13 15

  • 110

    4.14 15

    4.15 15

  • 111

    12 5 ( ) 89.8 87.0 ( 12 ) 84.3 75.4 1 65 ()

    15

    ( 80 76)

    268 283 400

    5 ( ) 90 87

    4.2 4.2.1

    10 40 25 115 24

    10 25 3 .. 2546-2547

    24 Carlene M.M. Lawes, et al. High Blood Pressure. In : Majid Ezzaati, et al. editor. Comparative Quantification of Health Risks :Global and Regional Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risk Factors. Geneva : WHO publications ; 2004. p 281-38925 . Burden of Disease and Injuries in Thailand, 2002.

  • 112

    3 2 1) 4 ( .)2) (sphygmomanometers)

    3 1 3 2 2 2 ( .)

    1 1 1 5

    3

    3 pulse pressure

    3

    (pulse pressure) 4.24

  • 113

    (variability) 3 pulse pressure 2 mean blood pressure

    4.16

    75 275 10 160 10 150

    4.24

    ()

    4.16 15 2547

  • 114

  • 115

    (continuous association) 26 140/90

    140 (SBP >140 mmHg) 90 (DBP > 90 mmHg)

    ()

    60 4.25

    15-29 9.8 7.6, 12.0 2,142 4.1 2.9, 5.3) 1,82830-44 18.6 15.9,21.3 3,704 13.9 12.2,15.6 4,21145-59 35.7 33.0,38.4 3,641 34.3 31.6,37.0 4,34560-69 47.3 44.6,50.0 5,323 48.1 45.5,50.6 5,63970-79 53.2 50.2,56.2 3,372 54.2 51.1,57.2 3,56980+ 59.4 54.8,64.0 696 61.8 55.7,67.8 711 23.3 21.2,25.4 18,878 20.9 19.5,22.3 20,303

    4.25 2547

    (%) 95% CI

    (%) 95% CI

    26 APCSC (2003a) Blood Pressure and Cardiovascular Disease in the Asia-Pacific Region. Journal of Hypertention, 21 2003 p. 707-716.

  • 116

    4.27

    4

    ( )

    >140 > 90

    < 140 < 90

    4.26 15 2543

    - 27.1 25.2, 29.0 9,698 22.4 21.0,23.8 10,844- 22.1 19.6,24.5 9,155 20.4 18.7,22.1 9,451- 25.9 22.8,29.0 6,382 23.6 21.4,25.8 6,451- 20.3 15.9,24.8 4,589 18.7 16.2,21.2 4,766- 28.4 24.1,32.7 4,328 24.0 20.2,27.9 4,598- 19.2 16.1,22.3 2,662 17.6 14.8,20.4 3,037- 22.9 20.1,25.7 892 19.1 17.1,21.1 1,443 23.3 21.2,25.4 18,853 20.9 19.5,22.3 20,295

    (%) 95% CI

    (%) 95% CI

  • 117

    4.27 60

    ()15-29 30-44 45-59 60-69 70-79 80+

    (N=7544) 94.4 91.4 74.2 62.2 63.1 65.8 78.6 4.1 2.0 6.2 5.8 5.6 2.3 4.5 1.1 3.2 13.5 21.9 20.4 23.4 11.2 0.4 3.4 6.1 10.1 11.0 8.5 5.7 (N=7580) 86.7 80.5 58.9 53.8 51.1 62.3 63.8 3.2 4.7 6.2 5.0 5.7 6.3 5.4 2.6 8.3 21.8 25.9 28.1 20.3 19.0 7.5 6.5 13.0 15.3 15.1 11.1 11.7

    4.27 2547

    4.28

    68.8 79.7 70.1 63.4 56.5 71.4 5.2 5.1 3.4 6.5 6.4 4.9 17.9 8.9 18.2 16.7 19.0 15.0 8.2 6.3 8.3 13.4 18.1 8.6

    4.28 2547

  • 118

    60

    60

    4.2.2

    3.8 mmol/l 147 mg/dl (1 mg/dl = 0.02586 mmol/l) 3.8 mmol/l 27 0.6mmol/l 23.2 mg/dl 27 1 mmol/l 38.67 mg/dl 13 28, 29 low-density lipoprotein (LDL) high-densitylipoprotein (HDL) totalcholesterol

    3 .. 2546-2547 total cholesterol ( mg%)

    6

    27 Carlene M.M. Lawes, et al. High Blood Pressure. In : Majid Ezzaati, et al, editors. Comparative Quantification of Health Risks :Global and Regional Burden of Disease Attributable to Selected Major Risk Factors. Geneva : WHO publications ; 2004. p. 391-49628 APCSC secretariat, personal communication, 200129 Law MR, NJ, Thompson SC (1994b) By how much and how quickly does redution in serum choresterol concentration lower riskof ischemic heart disease? British Medical Journal, 308 : p.367-372

  • 119

    clot blood to-

    tal cholesterol

    12

    total cholesterol 50 650 mg/dl ( > 50 and > 650)

    Total cholesterol

    4.17

    4.17 Total cholesterol (mg d/l) 2547

  • 120

    total cholesterol 240 mg d/l total cholesterol (continuous association) 30, 31 240 mg/dl

    total cholesterol 240 mg/dl (5.7 mmol/l)

    ()

    60 69 33 45 59 20 4.29

    30 APCSC secretariat, personal communication, 200131 Law MR, Wald NJ, Thomson SC (1994b) By how much and quickly does reduction in serum cholesterol concentration lower riskof ischemic heart disease? British Medical Journal, 308, 1994. : p.367-372

  • 121

    ( 28 32 ) 4.30

    (%) 95% CI (%) 95% CI 15-29 6.7 4.9, 8.5 2,139 7.6 6.0, 9.1 1,81830-44 14.7 13.0,16.5 3,689 12.8 11.1,14.4 4,20245-59 20.5 18.5,22.5 3,637 27.9 25.0,30.9 4,33360-69 20.2 18.2,22.1 5,309 32.8 30.3,35.3 5,63870-79 16.1 14.3,17.9 3,368 30.3 27.9,32.7 3,57080+ 15.8 11.9,19.7 693 27.4 23.2,31.6 707 13.7 12.4,15.1 18,835 17.1 15.7,18.5 20,268

    4.29 2547

    19.7 18.0,21.4 9,654 22.3 20.7,24.4 10,821 11.8 10.2,13.3 9,128 15.2 13.7,16.7 9,418

    18.7 15.3,22.0 6,363 20.3 17.3,23.2 6,436 8.5 6.3, 10.7 4,575 11.3 8.6, 14.0 4,753 12.6 10.0,15.2 4,298 16.1 13.3,18.7 4,576 16.0 13.0,18.9 2,662 22.8 19.1,26.6 3,036 27.6 23.5,31.7 884 31.8 29.2,34.5 1,438

    13.7 12.4,15.1 18,782 17.1 15.7,18.5 20,239

    (%) 95% CI

    (%) 95% CI

    4.30 2547

  • 122

    4

    ( ) total cholesterol > 240 mg/dl

    ( )

    total cholesterol > 240 mg/dl

    total cholesterol < 240 mg/dl

    ()15-29 30-44 45-59 60-69 70-79 80+

    (N=3644) 96.6 92.4 82.1 77.3 80.8 83.1 87.6 0.0 3.1 4.5 3.9 1.9 3.2 3.1 0.0 1.2 5.0 4.7 3.9 2.9 2.7 3.4 3.3 8.5 14.2 13.4 10.9 6.7

    (N=5701) 96.2 91.2 83.1 80.4 83.3 90.0 86.8 0.6 3.7 6.0 4.9 3.2 0.5 4.1 0.0 2.5 3.9 5.8 4.3 2.4 3.3 3.2 2.6 7.0 8.9 9.2 7.0 5.9

    4.31 2547

    4.32

  • 123

    85.8 93.3 87.3 88.9 71.8 87.1 3.6 1.6 3.4 4.1 9.0 3.6 3.6 1.0 2.5 2.9 7.6 3.0 7.0 4.1 6.8 4.2 11.6 6.2

    4.32 2547

    4.2.3 (Underweight, overweightand obesity)

    (Body fat) 32

    - type 2- ( LDL-C, HDL-C, TG)- - - (obstructive sleep apnea) - ( coronary heart disease ischemic stroke)- - - - - -

    32 World Health Organization. Obesity : Prevenning and Managing the Global Epidemic. Report of a WHO consultation on Obesity.2000.

  • 124

    - - (osteoporosis)- (impaired immuno competence)

    (eating disorder)

    (Body Mass Index - BMI)

    = ()[ ()]2

    (BMI) (waist circumference) (abdominal obesity)

    - type 2- -

    BMI (kg/m2) < 18.5 18.5-24.9 25.0-29.9 I 30.0-34.9 II 35.0-39.9 III > 40.0

    : 18 : WHO Obesity : Preventing and Managing the Global Epidemiology Report of WHO consultation on Obesity, 2000.

    4.33 (BMI)

  • 125

    (lower costal margin) (Iliac crest) 10-12 .. 2000 Cardiovascular diseases

    () > 94

    > 80 > 102

    > 88

    33 90 80 90 80 (central obesity)

    (summary variable) 2 (Waist to Height Ratio- WHtR)

    BMI WHtR BMI () (outliers) (WHtR)

    33 Dobbelsteyn CJ, Joffres MR, Maclean DR, Flowerdew G. A Comparative Evaluation of Waist Circumference, Waist-to-hip Ratio andBody Mass Index as Indicators of Cardiovascular Risk Factors. The Canadian Heart Health Surveys. Int. J Obes. Relat Metab Disorder2001 ; 25(5) : 652-61

  • 126

    Standard linear regression BMI - (WHtR) ( R2=0.75 ; R2= 0.69) Coefficient of variation 50% BMI BMI (predict) - 67 (biological plausible range) 2

    4.18 (BMI kg/m2) - (WHtR)

    50 115 12.5 kg / m2 40 kg / m2

    4.34

  • 127

    38,984 99.2% 39,054 99.4%

    2 (BMI) (waist circumference)

    4.35 15 BMI BMI 22.6 kg/m2 23.8 kg/m2 78.6 76.6 BMI 45-59 BMI 25.1 kg/m2 80.4 ( 4.35)

    (BMI kg/m2)- () < 18.5 kg/m2- > 18.5 - < 25 kg/m2- > 25 - < 30 kg/m2- > 30 kg/m2

    ()(Central obesity) > 90

    > 80

  • 128

    90 80 15 15 2 36 45 69 2 2 ( 4.36)

    15-29 21.7 (4.0) 74.8 (10.6) 2,135 22.3 (4.6) 72.4 (10.9) 1,81830-44 23.2 (3.8) 79.7 (10.2) 3,697 24.7 (4.5) 77.7 (10.4) 4,20545-59 23.5 (3.8) 82.3 (10.5) 3,631 25.1 (4.3) 80.4 (10.6) 4,33160-69 22.4 (3.7) 80.5 (11.0) 5,300 23.7 (4.5) 79.1 (11.4) 5,60970-79 21.4 (3.6) 78.2 (10.7) 3,352 22.4 (4.4) 76.8 (11.5) 3,54680+ 20.4 (3.6) 76.0 (10.2) 686 20.8 (4.3) 73.2 (11.6) 674

    22.6 (3.9) 78.6 (10.9) 18,836 23.8 (4.6) 76.6 (4.6) 20,218

    4.35 (BMI kg/m2) (waist circumference) () 15

    (kg/m2) (cm) (kg/m2) (cm) (SD) (SD) (SD) (SD)

    () (%) 95% CI (%) 95%CI 15-29 8.0 6.5, 9.4 2,139 21.0 18.2, 23.8 1,81030-44 16.5 14.7, 18.2 3,696 38.5 35.9, 41.0 4,20245-59 23.9 21.8, 26.0 3,635 50.4 47.3, 53.6 4,33360-69 21.1 19.0, 23.1 5,308 47.1 44.6, 49.5 5,62270-79 16.0 14.1, 18.0 3,366 38.2 35.6, 40.7 3,55980+ 10.6 8.0, 13.2 692 27.8 23.4, 32.2 692

    15.4 14.2, 16.6 18,836 36.1 34.2, 37.9 20,218

    a. > 90

    > 80

    4.36 a

  • 129

    4.19 15 2547

  • 130

    ( 4.37)

    4.20 15

    (%) (%) - 23.0 (21.6, 24.4)a 9,683 39.2 (37.4, 40.9) 10,817- 12.9 (11.5, 14.3) 9,153 35.0 (32.8, 37.2) 9,401- 20.7 (18.7, 22.6) 6,366 39.9 (36.7, 43.1) 6,423- 11.8 (9.2, 14.3) 4,573 32.9 (29.0, 36.7) 4,739- 14.5 (12.6, 16.3) 4,316 33.9 (30.6, 37.1) 4,576- 13.1 (10.0, 16.3) 2,695 37.1 (32.3, 41.9) 3,042- . 27.4 (24.4, 30.3) 886 46.3 (42.2, 50.4) 1,438 15.4 (14.2, 16.6) 18,836 36.1 (34.2, 37.9) 20,218

    a. ( ) 95% Confidence Interval

    4.37 15

  • 131

    (BMI 18.5 kg/m2) (BMI 18.5 - 25 kg/m2) (BMI 25 - 30 kg/m2) (BMI 30 kg/m2) (15-29 ) 70 60 30 59 40-48 23 34( 4.38)

    4.21 15

    4.22 15

  • 132

    - 31.0 (29.3, 32.6) 9,661 37.7 (36.0, 39.3) 10,804- 19.8 (18.0, 21.5) 9,140 33.3 (31.3, 35.1) 9,379- 28.3 (26.0, 30.6) 6,362 37.8 (35.6, 40.0) 6,402- 19.3 (15.9, 22.7) 4,566 32.5 (29.7, 35.3) 4,734- 21.5 (19.2, 23.9) 4,306 30.7 (26.5, 35.0) 4,569- 19.3 (15.5, 23.1) 2,685 36.3 (33.5, 39.1) 3,039- . 31.5 (28.2, 34.9) 882 40.1 (36.6, 43.6) 1,439 22.5 (21.0, 24.1) 18,801 34.4 (32.9, 35.9) 20,183

    (BMI _ 25 kg/m2) 31 (4.39)

    ()15-29 30-44 45-59 60-69 70-79 80+

    (N=18801) 16.5 6.8 7.3 14.0 22.5 31.9 11.6 68.9 66.8 61.6 63.0 61.8 58.1 65.8 9.8 21.2 25.4 20.0 13.9 9.0 17.8 4.8 5.1 5.8 2.9 1.7 1.0 4.8

    (N=20183) 15.4 4.1 4.2 12.0 19.0 33.4 9.6 63.9 55.2 47.9 51.8 55.3 52.6 56.0 14.4 30.0 35.8 27.6 20.3 11.5 25.4 6.3 10.7 12.0 8.6 5.4 2.5 9.0

    4.38

    4.39 (BMI > 25 kg/m2)

    (%)

  • 133

    4.23 (BMI > 25 kg/m2)

    4.24 (BMI > 25 kg/m2)

  • 134

    12 16.8-35.4 5 12 ( 19) 1 () 35 31 10 26 1,2 40 42 ()

    2 (BMI) (BMI)

    23 34 (Central obesity) 15 36

    30 59 2 10-12

    32-33

    2 (.. 2534-35 .. 2535-40) InterAsia 34 BMI 2

    4.2.4

    34 InterASIA Study Steering Committee. InterASIA International Collaborative Study of Cardiovascular Disease in Asia Final Report.February. New Orleans, LA.2002.

  • 135

    15 2 2 4 150 2 20 35 3 7 10 17 36 3 .. 2546-2547 (FBS)

    3 .. 2546-2547

    (Fasting blood sugar; FBS) mg/dl

    6

    2 CC. NaF

    12

    FBS 40 500 mg/dl (>40 and >500) missing

    35 World Health Organization. Diababetes mellitus [Online].April 2002.[cited 2006 Apr 11]. Available From URL: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs138/en/index.html36 . Burden of Disease and Injuries in Thailand, 2002

  • 136

    4.25

    4.25 (mg/dl) 15 2547

  • 137

    126 mg/dl (FBS > 126 mg/dl)

    (

    )

    60 60 69 4.40

    15-29 2.0 0.9, 3.2 2,140 1.6 0.7, 2.3 1,82230-44 5.2 3.9,6.4 3,689 5.1 4.0, 6.2 4,19945-59 11.4 9.9, 12.9 3,634 12.6 11.3,14.0 4,33960-69 13.8 12.4,15.1 5,313 18.9 17.4,20.5 5,63670-79 12.3 10.8,13.7 3,364 15.7 14.1,17.3 3,57380+ 10.1 7.6, 12.7 694 9.2 6.5, 11.8 708

    6.4 5.4, 7.4 18,834 7.3 6.5, 8.1 20,277

    4.40 15 2547

    (%) 95% CI (%) 95% CI

    4.41

  • 138

    4 (

    ) (

    ) insulin insulin

    FBS _ 126 mg/dl insulin

    FBS < 126 mg/dl

    4.44

    4.41 15 2547

    - 8.6 7.7, 9.5 9,664 7.8 7.2,8.5 10,826- 5.7 4.4, 7.0 9,136 7.1 6.1,8.1 9,430- 6.1 5.2, 7.1 6,360 6.8 5.7,7.9 6,438- 6.8 4.3, 9.3 4,582 8.1 6.2,10.0 4,757- 5.6 4.5, 6.7 4,307 6.9 6.1,7.8 4,581- 5.1 3.2, 7.0 2,664 5.6 4.5,6.7 3,043- . 12.4 10.6,14.2 887 9.8 8.1,11.6 1,437 6.4 5.4, 7.4 18,800 7.3 6.5,8.1 20,256

    (%) 95% CI

    (%) 95% CI

  • 139

    ()15-29 30-44 45-59 60-69 70-79 80+

    (N=2045) 100.0 73.0 60.2 48.0 51.1 64.1 65.5 0.0 1.7 2.7 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.9 0.0 21.5 27.9 34.8 30.1 16.1 24.1 0.0 3.8 9.2 15.2 17.1 18.7 8.5

    (N=2601) 85.7 62.9 42.4 37.0 39.2 60.4 49.2 0.0 2.2 1.1 2.6 1.5 3.5 1.7 13.7 30.6 37.5 38.2 36.2 22.1 33.9 0.6 4.2 19.0 22.2 23.2 14.0 15.2

    4.42 2547

    4.42

    N=4646 54.7 62.5 51.3 50.7 53.1 56.6 1.4 0.6 2.8 2.4 5.8 1.8 29.5 26.6 29.8 35.9 34.1 29.4 14.4 10.3 16.1 10.9 7.0 12.2

    4.43 2547

  • 140

    (pre-diabetes)

    (pre-diabetes phase) (life style) BMI (relative risk reduction) 58% (Metformin) 31%37 (pre-diabetes) Pre-diabetes (Impaired Fasting Glucose : IFG) FPG (Fasting Plasma Glucose) 100 mg/dl - 125mg/dl 38

    15 15.4 10.6 IFG 80 ( 4.43.1) 4.25.1

    37 knowler WC, Bawett-Cornnor E, Fowler SE, Hamman RF, Lachic JM, Walker EA et al Reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabeteswith lifestyle intervention or met for min. N Eng J Med 2002 ; 346 : 393 - 40338 American Dibetes Association. Diagnosis and Classification of Diabetes Mellitus[online] Available from http://care.diabetesjournals.org/cgi/content/full/29/suppl_1/s43

    4.43.1 * (Impaired Fasting Glucose : IFG)

    1,8214,1994,3395,6263,561706

    20,252* Fasting Plasma Glucose 100 - 125 mg / dl

    15 -2930 - 4445 - 5960 - 6970 - 79

    80+

    9.215.421.421.521.421.815.4

    2,1363,6863,6325,3003,355684

    18,793

    4.38.417.217.920.421.610.6

  • 141

    IFG IFG IFG ( 4.43.2, 4.25.2 4.25.3)

    4.25.1 (IFG)

    16.8 9,660 12.0 10,824 14.9 9,133 10.1 9,428

    - 17.1 6,359 11.4 6,435- 15.2 4,580 11.0 4,757- 14.2 4,305 8.6 4,580- 13.6 2,664 9.9 3,043- 17.4 885 14.6 1,437 15.4 18,793 10.6 20,250

    4.43.2 (IFG) /

  • 142

    4.25.2

    4.25.3

  • 143

    60 69

    (pre-diabetes) 15 15.4 10.6

    4.2.5

    (Hct) (Hb) (, B12, ) (chronic blood loss) 39 40 3 .. 2546-2547

    EDTA

    3

    , 3

    39 Ed Uthman. Anemia : Pathophisiologic concenquences, classification and clinical investigetion [Online]. Available from : URL :http://web2.airmail.net/uthman/anemia/anemia.html40 : [Online] URL:http://rh.anamai.moph.go.th/static.html

  • 144

    4.46 713 (1.8%) 607 (1.5%)

    39 13 (Hct

  • 145

    2 80 4.46 42

    4.46 15 2547

    15-29 7.0 5.3, 8.7 2,093 18.1 15.3, 1.0 1,80030-44 7.4 6.1,8.7 3,638 17.5 15.6,19.5 4,15745-59 12.4 10.6,14.1 3,592 23.0 20.7,25.4 4,29760-69 24.6 22.8,26.5 5,253 33.6 31.2,36.0 5,53970-79 36.1 33.5,38.7 3,329 42.3 39.9,44.7 3,49780+ 51.8 46.8,56.9 684 56.1 51.2,60.9 698

    11.4 10.2,12.6 18,690 22.2 20.3,24.1 19,993

    (%) 95% CI (%) 95% CI

    2 4.47

    42 Dhamarajan Ts, Pais WW, Norkus EP. Does anemia matter? Ame,oa, Morbidity, mortality inolder adults : Need for greater recognition. Gerriatics 2005 ; 60 (DEC) : p.22-29

  • 146

    4

    4.48

    4.47 15 2547

    - 10.6 9.4,11.8 9,506 24.0 22.0,26.1 10,618- 11.7 10.4,13.0 8,992 21.5 13.7,23.6 9,241

    - 10.1 7.9, 12.0 6,192 20.5 17.3,24.2 6,292- 11.7 9.7, 13.6 4,534 22.0 18.7,25.3 4,680- 12.7 11.0,14.5 4,240 21.4 17.9,24.9 4,487- 11.3 6.5, 16.1 2,649 24.2 18.2,30.2 2,969- . 11.6 9.6, 13.5 883 30.6 27.7,33.5 1,431

    11.4 10.2,12.6 18,498 22.2 20.3,24.1 19,859

    (%) 95% CI

    (%) 95% CI

  • 147

    4.48 15 2547

    ()15-29 30-44 45-59 60-69 70-79 80+

    (N=3471) 92.0 94.5 94.1 95.8 98.0 97.5 94.8 2.9 1.2 2.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 1.8 4.4 2.4 1.5 1.4 0.3 1.1 2.1 0.7 1.9 1.6 1.8 0.8 0.7 1.3

    (N=5537) 87.7 91.0 93.3 93.2 94.7 97.8 91.7 2.8 3.2 1.7 0.9 1.1 0.4 2.1 5.4 3.1 2.2 3.8 2.6 0.6 3.4 4.2 2.7 2.8 2.1 1.5 1.2 2.8

    90 4.49

    N=9008 92.6 91.1 93.3 95.7 93.2 92.7 2.3 2.2 1.6 1.5 2.4 2.0 2.3 3.5 3.4 2.1 2.5 2.9 2.8 3.2 1.7 0.7 1.9 2.3

    4.49 15 2547

  • 148

    2

    80 90

    4.2.6 (Multiple CVD risk factors)

    (Multiple risk factors) (Ischemic heart disease) (Relative Risk) ( Population AttributableFraction PAF)

    (SBP > 140 ,DBP > 90 ) (> 240 mg% ) ( > 126 mg%) (overweight/obese)

    4.50

    18,934 20,356 1 44 32 1 29 22

  • 149

    4.50 a

    () 15-29 30-44 45-59 60-69 70-79 80+ (N=18934)1 42.8 48.0 39.2 40.6 41.6 46.1 43.7

    (40.1, 45.5)b (46.0, 50.0) (37.2, 41.4) (38.7, 42.6) (39.6, 43.7) (41.3, 51.0) (42.5, 45.6)2 10.8 20.7 28.4 28.2 29.9 26.7 20.0

    (9.5, 12.3) (18.8, 22.6) (26.4, 30.4) (26.7, 29.7) (27.9, 31.9) (22.6, 31.2) (18.8, 21.2)3 3.1 6.7 11.9 12.0 9.1 7.2 7.1

    (2.2, 4.4) (5.6, 7.9) (10.6, 13.4) (10.8, 13.4) (8.0, 10.4) (5.2, 9.8) (6.3, 8.0)4 0.3 1.8 3.4 3.4 1.6 0.9 1.7

    (0.2, 0.7) (1.4, 2.3) (2.8, 4.1) (2.8, 4.2) (1.2, 2.1) (0.3, 2.5) (1.5, 2.0)

    (N=20356)1 21.4 37.2 36.6 32.4 35.2 44.4 32.0

    (19.4, 23.6) (35.5, 38.9) (34.3, 39.0) (30.7, 34.2) (33.4, 37.5) (38.9, 50.1) (30.9, 33.1)2 5.4 12.4 24 25.5 27.3 22.6 14.7

    (4.2, 7.1) (11.0, 13.8) (22.1, 26.1) (24.1, 27.0) (25.5, 29.2) (18.7, 27.0) (13.8, 15.6)3 0.6 3.7 11.2 14.7 10.7 0.7 5.6

    (0.4, 1.1) (3.0, 4.4) (9.9, 12.6) (13.6, 16.0) (9.4, 12.2) (4.8, 9.2) (5.2, 6.1)4 0.1 0.3 2.1 3.3 2.2 1.4 1.0

    (0.0, 1.0) (0.2, 0.5) (1.6, 2.6) (2.7, 4.0) (1.7, 2.9) (0.6, 2.9) (0.8, 1.2)

    a. , , , (overweight/obese)b. ( ) 95% Confidence Interval

    1 4 3 ( 4.51)

  • 150

    4.51 4.52 2 4 15 2 5 1 ( 15 )

    12 10 () 1-2 ( 4.52)

    (N=39290)1 35.2 39.3 37.5 39.7 33.8 37.72 18.9 15.5 17.7 17.3 20.1 17.33 7.9 5.0 6.1 6.0 9.9 6.34 2.1 0.8 1.1 1.5 3.0 1.4

    4.51

    4.52 15

    (N=39290) 6.7 3.1 7 5.8 9.3 5.5 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.5 2.1 0.6

  • 151

    4.2.7

    4.26

    15 45 3 1,350,000 0.4 ( 180,000 ) 0.4 0.2 90,000 0.5 (225,000 ) 0.8 360,000

    4.26 15

  • 152

    4.3

    1

    15- 59 15.2

    25 8-9 15 1

    4.27 15

  • 153

    ( 4.54)

    4.53 15

    15-2930-4445-5960-6970-7980+

    15-2930-4445-5960-6970-7980+

    ()

    1 2 3

    0.40.40.51.11.62.00.5

    0.20.50.82.32.61.40.7

    0.51.31.54.05.45.91.5

    0.81.74.16.88.78.02.8

    5.010.319.430.531.834.313.1

    13.017.729.034.636.834.921.2

    6.012.021.435.738.842.215.1

    14.019.833.843.748.144.224.7

  • 154

    ( 22.8 19.6) 26.3 16 6.5 4.3 3.2( 4.55)

    4.54 -

    ()

    3.37.815.827.629.834.410.6

    8.914.426.133.336.730.218.1

    15-2930-4445-5960-6970-7980+

    15-2930-4445-5960-6970-7980+

    1.43.65.27.98.08.43.8

    2.23.86.510.012.710.64.9

    0.40.40.50.50.60.30.4

    0.10.40.81.51.10.50.5

    0.40.80.71.31.82.70.7

    0.10.52.12.92.72.21.0

    0.20.10.20.00.10.20.1

    0.30.10.10.20.10.00.2

    1.50.81.54.06.26.61.7

    2.62.13.36.78.410.63.4

  • 155

    4.56 15

    3.02.4

    2.52.32.13.24.3

    - -

    - - - - - .

    22.819.6

    21.116.023.125.126.3

    3.94.5

    5.53.06.53.04.2

    4.28 13 (13) 26.3 10,11,12 15 25 6 15.8

    4.28

  • 156

    4.4 (Traffic injuries)

    .. 2547 17 3,053,990 30 43

    3 15-59

    15-59

    12 15.7 8.2 15-29 22 10 ( 4.57)

    4.57 15 - 59 12

    () (%)

    15-2930-4445-59

    21.812.810.715.7

    2,1523,7053,6379,494

    9.87.17.88.2

    1,8264,2124,34210,380

    9.8 15-59 5.5 15-29 15-29 30-44 45-59 3 5 ( 4.58)

    43 16 2549

  • 157

    15-59 3 12.5 (11.7) ( 10.2) ( 7.9) ( 4.59)

    4.58 15 - 59 12

    () (%)

    15-2930-4445-59

    13.77.94.09.8

    2,1523,7053,6379,494

    6.74.72.85.5

    1,8264,2124,34210,380

    - -

    - - - - - .

    4.59 15 - 59

    (%)

    5.214.5

    8.111.79.210.212.59.8

    4,8534,641

    3,2242,3232,1141,319514

    9,494

    2.98.5

    4.97.94.74.83.95.5

    5,6234,757

    3,2322,4162,2801,548904

    10,380

    12 6 ( ) 15-59 12.6 12.5 2 ( )

  • 158

    6.3 6 8.5 2 3.3 ()

    12 15-59 1315 ( 50) 13 3 ( 53.4) ( 44.1) 2 ( 19.8 9.5) 4 ( 4.60)

    9.5 19.8 13.2 11.7 8.6 10.6 0.6 2.3 .2 0.8 1.1 0.9 2.4 4.0 3.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 53.4 44.1 50.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 4.0 3.2 3.7

    8.0 7.0 7.6 4.0 1.1 3.0 5.4 7.8 6.2 100.0 100.0 100.0

    4.60 15-59 12

    (%) (%)

    841

    474

    1,315

  • 159

    5

    5.1

    44, 45

    20 //

    50 53

    22 24% 6.2

    17.8

    2 ( Pap smear) Mammogram 40

    44 . 2548 : (.) 2548.

    45 (). . : .. 2544 - 2547

  • 160

    (Screening test)

    5.1

    10,007 396 3.8 2,638 140 5.0 8,166 129 1.6 10,164 239 2.3 (Induced Abortion) 10,179 224 2.2 10,187 216 2.1 (Pap Smear) 8,978 0 0 Pap Smear 8,978 0 0 10,336 67 0.6 10,352 51 0.5 Mammogram 5,893 50 0.8 19,918 126 0.6 17,473 3,385 19.4 17,473 9,323 53.36

    (%)

    15-59 15-29

    13 30-44 45-59 14 15 ( 5.2)

    * (Missing rate) / + x 100 (%)

  • 161

    5.2 15

    15-29 1 45-59 3 1-2 ( 5.3)

    () () SD

    15-29 13.6 1.5 1,78230-44 14.6 1.7 4,10945-59 15.2 1.8 4,116

    14.4 1.8 10,007

    (prevalence) 15 - 59 19.8 1 4 5.4 14.4 0.7 (15 - 29 ) 45 - 59 30 1 4 ( 5.4)

    5.3

    () SD

    15-29 1.5 1.0 1,78230-44 2.1 0.9 4,10945-59 3.0 1.5 4,116

    2.2 1.8 8,166

  • 162

    5.4 ( 15 - 59 )

    (%)15 - 29 30 - 44 45 - 59

    9.8 22.9 29.2 19.8

    - 3.4 6.2 7.1 5.4- 6.4 16.6 21.9 14.4- 0.2 0.6 1.4 0.7- 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.3

    1,754 4,138 4,272 10,164

    5.5 15-59

    5.2 15-59 5.2.1

    () .. 2542 19.8 10 .. 2533 23.4 35 Pap. smear IARC / WHO46 35 - 64 1 91 - 93 1 5 84

    (%) 2.4 6.0 6.7 7.3 7.0 5.4 (%) 12.7 15.3 13.9 15.5 15.0 14.4 3,238 2,419 2,286 1,556 904 10,403

    46 . .2548

  • 163

    2 2 2 Pap smear 5.6 15-59 48 30-44 62 41 2 15-29 Pap smear 35

    5.6 Pap smear 15-59

    52 2 37 31

    5.1 (Coverage) (Pap smear) 15-59

    ()15-29 30-44 45-59

    2 20.2 41.4 35.9 32.4 2 8.8 20.8 19.1 16.1

  • 164

    2 (%) 31.2 32.8 37.1 27.1 31.4 32.4 2 (%) 16.8 15.2 15.0 16.7 20.6 16.1

    5.7 Pap smear 15-59

    Pap smear 10 63 15-59 2 50 10 1 35 2 31 9 43 2 15-59 26 15-59 35

    5.2 (Pap smear) 15-59

  • 165

    5.8 (Pap smear) 15-59

    (%) 2 2

    1 34.6 15.6 50 6792 33.2 17.1 50 7053 30.3 16.3 47 6924 27.1 18.3 45 6795 34.1 15.8 50 7236 32.7 16.6 50 7117 31.6 12.9 45 7028 31.7 16.7 48 7019 26.0 16.6 43 63710 50.3 12.6 63 68311 27.6 15.8 44 64512 26.6 17.6 45 675

    13 (.) 31.4 20.6 52 746

    ( 5.9) ( 2 ) ( 2 )

    5.3

  • 166

    5.2.2 35

    .. 2542 19.9 100,000 .. 2533 13.5

    5.9 15-59

    2 (%) (%) (%)

    1 32.6 16.8 50 36.5 14.6 51

    2 32.3 22.4 54 33.5 15.7 49

    3 33.3 17.7 51 28.9 15.7 45

    4 29.2 14.8 44 26.3 19.7 46

    5 31.2 19.7 51 34.5 15.2 50

    6 32.1 20.5 53 32.8 15.7 49

    7 30.2 20.9 51 31.8 11.9 44

    8 32.3 17.6 50 30.9 16.5 47

    9 27.6 18.2 46 25.7 16.2 42

    10 43.1 15.9 59 52.7 11.6 65

    11 22.1 18.9 41 29.2 14.9 44

    12 22.3 19.6 42 28.1 16.9 45

    13 (.) 31.4 20.6 52

  • 167

    15-59 50 23 30 15-29 35( 5.10)

    5.10 15

    () (%)15-29 30-44 45-59

    - 35.0 58.3 53.5 48.7- 13.2 28.1 27.9 22.7 1,831 4,221 4,351 10,403

    52 28 15-59 23 ( 5.11)

    5.4 15

  • 168

    5.11 15

    . - 49.6 49.6 47.0 46.5 51.6 48.7- 21.6 22.7 27.8 16.7 24.8 22.7

    3,238 2,419 2,286 1556 904 10403

    Mammogram 40 Mammogram 5.6 Mammogram 40-59 4 11 5 2 40-59 Mammogram

    5.5 15

  • 169

    Mammogram 12 Mammogram 1 11 12 1 Mammogram 40-59 10 11 ( 5.12)

    5.6 Mammogram 40-59

    5.12 40-59 Mammogram

    - 1.6 1.0 1.4 2.9 5.0 1.7- 2.3 1.4 1.5 3.6 6.2 2.2 1,902 1,285 1,322 804 580 5,893

  • 170

    Mammogram 11 1 Mammogram ( 4 2 ) ( 5.13)

    5.7 Mammogram 40-59

    5.13 Mammogram 40-59 12

    (%) (%) (%)

    1 3 3 7 2 4 6

    2 0 1 2 0 0 1

    3 2 2 4 1 3 4

    4 2 3 5 1 2 3

    5 1 2 2 1 2 2

  • 171

    5.3

    2 / (regular-partners) (non-regular partners) 15-59 7,134 15-59 6,780 (15-29) 50 17 10 36 8

    6 2 2 3 1 1 2

    7 2 2 4 2 1 3

    8 2 1 4 1 1 2

    9 2 3 6 1 1 2

    10 2 3 5 1 1 3

    11 2 7 9 4 3 6

    12 4 6 10 2 2 5

    13 () 5 6 11

  • 172

    ( 5.15)

    5.14

    ()15-29 30-44 45-59

    (N=7134) 17.2 5.7 3.5 7.8 49.6 31.4 20.9 36.1

    (N=6780) 3.6 4.0 2.0 3.4 9.5 4.7 2.1 5.5

    5.15 15

    .

    (N=7,134) 9.5 6.8 5.4 8.0 18.3 7.8 37.3 37.0 25.9 46.5 51 36.1

    (N=6,780) 4.4 2.9 2.5 3.2 8.9 3.4 6.1 4.7 2.0 30.1 11.7 5.5

  • 173

    13

    15-59 2 45-59 3 15-59 19 14

    5

    Pap. Smear 15-59 38 Pap. Smear 2 9 10

    15-59 49 23 Mammogram 40-59 4 1 2 11

    15-29 15-59

  • 174

    68.2 75.1 60 19.1 21.5 47 48 , 49 50

    51

    52

    6

    47 Mahidol Population Gazette : Population of Thailand 2006(vol.15).48 WHO(1996) , 4 8(44) .. 254249 WHO fifty-eight WHA Provisional Agenda Item, Strengthen Active and Healthy Ageing,13.15, A58/19, April 2005.50 The National Health : A Strategy for the 1990s. The Kings Fund Center. New Edition 1991.51 , : , 2543.52 .. 2525

  • 175

    5

    (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

    (1) 53

    (1.1) 3

    Health State Description 54 4 Barthel ADL index

    (1.2)

    55

    (2) 55-60 56

    (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) 57,58

    53 (WHO, 1984) 54 World Health Survey 2002-2003. www.who.int/healthinfo/survey/en/index.html55 45, 2536 359-37456 Donatella R., Davis L. Defining Death and Illness; Access to Health , Prentice Hall Inc, 1993. pp 2-6.57 Tones and Basleft. Healthy People 2000 : The Nation Health Promotion and Diseases Prevention Objectives for The United State,

    1992.58 Suttichai Jitapankul and Srichitra Bunnag. Ageing in Thailand 1997, Cited in Family Planning and Population : Vol 2, No.6, March

    1999.

  • 176

    50 .. 2538 59,60 4

    (3)

    (1) (2) 3 (3) (4)

    (4)

    (5)

    59 , 50 .. 2538, 60 , , 2539.

  • 177

    6.1

    19,372 139 19,233 60-69 98 0.1 78 80 17.9 3.4 0.6

    1

    6.2

    4

    6.1

    (%) (%) (%) (%)60-69 97.9 1.8 0.2 0.1 10,92270-79 92.3 7.0 0.6 0.1 6,91980+ 77.6 18.3 3.5 0.6 1,392 93.1 5.9 0.8 0.2 19,233

  • 178

    6.2.1 6.2

    Barthel ADL Activity of Daily Living Barthel 10 20 12 61

    . . . . 1) 1) 1) 5 . 1) 2) 2) 2) 10 2) 3) 3) 3) 4) 4) 3) 5) 5) ( 4) 4) 6) ) 5) 7) 6) 6)

    7)

    6.2

    :Williams, 1986. First Symposium on Gerontology 1996.

    61 Data Element Definitions. Australian Nation Health Data Dictionary version 8.0 2547 3

  • 179

    3 ( 1) 2

    1 6 24-48 3 = 0, = 1 = 2

    2 4 = 0, = 1, 1 24 = 2 = 3

    1 2 18 = 10 60 62

    3 6 / 4 = 0 , = 1, = 2 = 3 = 18 = 0 10

    (1) (ADLs) 60-69 90 70-79 10 80 64 10 ( 6.3)

    ( 6.4)

    62 2 60

  • 180

    6.3

    (%) (%) (%)

    60-69 98.2 96.3 94.9 5,32570-79 96.2 94.2 87.5 3,37780+ 88.3 91.8 63.7 693 96.2 95.1 88.3 9,395

    60-69 97.8 94.4 93.0 5,63870-79 94.9 92.7 80.1 3,57580+ 86.8 88.4 53.6 708 95.1 92.9 82.5 9,921

    2) 80 10

    2 80 13

    2 80 ( 6.5)

    6.4

    (%) (%) (%)

    60-69 1.8 3.7 5.4 5,32570-79 3.8 5.8 12.5 3,37780+ 11.7 8.2 36.3 693 3.8 4.9 10.2 9,395

    60-69 2.2 5.6 7.0 5,63870-79 5.1 7.3 19.9 3,57580+ 13.2 11.6 46.4 708 4.9 7.1 17.5 9,921

  • 181

    (3) . .

    12 . 8 4-5

    15 20 . 10 5

    ( 6.6)

    6.5

    (%) (%) (%) 60-69 1.8 4.4 4.6 5,750

    70-79 4.4 6.6 12.9 3,62380+ 11.7 7.1 36.1 721 4.1 5.5 11.8 10,094

    60-69 2.1 4.8 6.6 5,21370-79 4.6 6.7 17.9 3,32980+ 12.9 11.3 44.2 680 4.5 6.4 16 9,222

    6.6

    (%) (%) (%) 60-69 2.0 3.3 4.8 3,732

    70-79 4.6 4.2 13.2 2,19880+ 11.6 6.1 34.7 441 4.5 4.1 12.7 6,371

    60-69 1.8 2.3 5.7 2,46970-79 2.6 3.7 14.2 1,72780+ 10.7 6.8 41.6 338 3.3 3.4 13.7 4,534

  • 182

    6.2.2 7-8 11 5 7 2 63 64

    60-79

    (%) (%) (%) 60-69 2.5 3.5 8.0 2,662

    70-79 5.5 5.7 23.2 1,59280+ 15.9 9.5 55.5 370 5.2 4.9 18.8 4,624

    60-69 1.1 13.0 4.5 1,55270-79 5.5 15.6 14.7 1,12280+ 11.0 23.6 39.9 194 4.2 15.7 14.0 2,867

    60-69 1.1 13.0 4.5 54970-79 5.5 15.6 14.7 31480+ 11.0 23.6 39.9 58 4.2 15.7 14.0 921

    63 , . , 2542.

    64 National Survey of the Health Status and Quality of Life of The Elderly Thais Attending Clubs for Elderly .JMed .Assoc Thai 2003; 86 : 938-946

  • 183

    6.2.3 65 60

    (1) 60 30 50 80 3 4 0.2 1.8 2

    54 , 48 49 51 , 47 35 60-69, 70-79 80 15-17 2 3 27 , 30 37 60-69 , 70-79 80

    ( 6.8)

    38 41

    6.7

    Min,Max (Mean + SD)

    60-69 81.4 2.01+1.07 1,7 4,47370-79 86.4 2.10+1.09 1,7 2,97380 + 91.5 2.24+1.11 1,6 632

    60-69 88.2 2.25+1.11 1,7 5,06470-79 91.1 2.36+1.12 1,6 3,30480 + 94.1 2.35+1.03 1,6 665

    65 , : , 2543.

  • 184

    / 70

    6 10 60-69 6 7 5 70-79 80 7 ,12 13 1-2 70-79 80 9 7 ( 6.10)

    6.8

    60-69 70-79 80+ 60-69 70-79 80+

    5,319 3,370 688 5,624 3,564 708 60 (%) 28.0 33.7 35.5 38.8 46.3 49.1 1,488 1,136 244 2,180 1,649 348 (%) 54.1 47.9 49.3 50.9 46.8 35.4 (%) 17.6 14.7 15.8 26.8 30.4 36.9 (%) 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.0 (%) 33.8 33.5 28.1 25.7 21.2 28.0

    : 1

    6.9

    60-69 70-79 80+ 60-69 70-79 80+

    1,488 1,136 244 2,180 1,649 348 2.93 3.03 3.95 2.75 3.24 3.12. 0.2 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.23 0.27

    6.10

    60-69 70-79 80+ 60-69 70-79 80+

    1,488 1,136 244 2,868 2,180 1,649 348 4,176 (%) 73.3 73.0 76.5 73.7 77.3 75.2 72.4 75.7 (%) 5.5 7.0 4.7 5.9 7.3 11.9 12.6 9.8(%) 1.3 2.2 1.5 1.6 0.5 1.1 3.1 1.2 (%) 9.0 9.4 8.3 9.0 7.5 7.6 5.7 7.2

  • 185

    (2) 60 10 32-34 20-28 60-69 , 70-79 80 2-3 ( 6.11 6.12)

    1

    10 32 60-69 34 36 2 80 36 27

    6.11

    60-69 70-79 80+ 60-69 70-79 80+

    5,736 3,609 719 5,207 3,325 677 60 (%) 32.2 41.8 44.1 34.3 40.4 43.4 1,848 1,508 317 1,784 1,343 293 (%) 42.5 43.8 37.4 55.6 48.5 41.1 (%) 31.9 33.6 36.1 20.3 21.4 27.5 (%) 1.2 1.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 (%) 25.5 22.3 22.0 29.9 27.1 30.3

    11 8

    1-2 80 ( 6.13)

    6.12

    60-69 70-79 80+ 60-69 70-79 80+

    1,848 1,508 317 1,784 1,343 293 2.6 3.2 3.4 3.0 3.2 3.4. 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2

  • 186

    (3) 42 40 , 38 , 34 31

    (4 ) (3 ) (3 ) (3 ) (2 ) 0.2-0.4

    54 48 , 46 , 45 41

    42 ( 34) ( 26) ( 21) ( 21)

    1 3 ( 6.14 6.15)

    6.13

    60-69 70-79 80+ 60-69 70-79 80+

    1,848 1,508 317 3,673 1,784 1,343 293 3,421 (%) 75.9 72.5 77.5 75.0 75.7 75.1 72.5 74.9 (%) 8.8 12.7 11.9 10.7 5.8 9.2 9.3 7.6 (%) 0.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.8 1.5 2.9 1.4 (%) 9.6 9.8 8.0 9.4 7.6 7.6 6.1 7.3

  • 187

    6.3 6.3.1 4

    2 66

    6.14

    . 6,364 4,526 4,614 2,849 920 60 (%) 38.2 31.5 41.9 34.2 39.6 2,430 1,425 1,931 974 364 (%) 44.9 45.8 53.6 47.5 41.2 (%) 26.1 33.4 18.9 21.1 41.6 (%) 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 2.8 (%) 25.9 28.1 32.4 22.4 22.7

    6.15

    . 2,430 1,425 1,931 974 364 3.6 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.4. 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4

    6.16

    . 2,430 1,425 1,931 974 364 (%) 73.2 74.9 76.4 77.0 68.8 (%) 7.6 11.0 6.2 9.7 15.1 (%) 1.5 1.9 0.9 1.6 0.9 (%) 8.5 4.3 5.9 15.2 12.8

    66 ,

  • 188

    60 67,68

    (1) 50 40 43 3

    (2) 3

    6.17

    60-69 70-79 80+ 60-69 70-79 80+

    5,321 3,379 692 9,392 5,640 3,578 708 9,926 (%) 47.7 51.7 54.1 49.8 50.2 50.7 57.4 51.5 (%) 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.3 2.5 2.7 3.0 2.6(%) 45.9 41.5 40.2 43.8 44.5 44.0 36.9 43.1(%) 3.1 3.3 2.7 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.8

    (3) 65 54 34 26

    60-69 70-79 80+ 60-69 70-79 80+

    5,748 3,624 719 10,091 5,213 3,333 681 9,227(%) 40.0 43.7 43.8 41.7 52.3 53.7 60.1 53.9 (%) 2.4 2.3 2.8 2.4 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.1(%) 54.7 51.6 50.7 53.2 41.7 39.9 34.1 40.0 (%) 2.9 2.5 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.1 2.7 3.0

    6.18

    67 , . ,2534.68 ,

    , 2542.

  • 189

    6.3.2 6.20 72 ( 62) ( 39) 65

    30 40 ( 35 32) 24 18

    6.19

    . 6,376 4,531 4,624 2,866 921(%) 54.5 65.7 34.3 65.0 26.1(%) 2.0 2.8 1.3 9.1 1.7(%) 39.8 28.7 61.6 24.4 67.6 (%) 3.7 2.8 2.7 1.5 4.7

    6.3.3 69

    6.20

    . 6,366 4,527 4,620 2,867 919 11,113(%) 53.6 71.5 59.3 38.9 62.1 57.7(%) 24.2 32.5 34.7 18.1 40.4 29.2

    69 , . ,2542.

  • 190

    70 70 80

    43 60-69 36 43 70-79 80 36 3 32 80 34

    21

    6 .21

    60-69 70-79 80+ 60-69 70-79 80+

    5,321 3,378 692 9,391 5,642 3,578 709 9,929(%) 45.0 45.7 40.2 44.5 40.0 40.6 39.2 40.0 (%) 38.2 38.8 33.5 37.7 34.0 34.1 31.0 33.5 (%) 32.7 33.3 30.5 32.6 29.4 28.8 30.9 29.5 (%) 22.5 23.0 18.8 22.1 18.3 19.3 17.6 18.5

    6.22

    60-69 70-79 80+ 60-69 70-79 80+

    5,747 3,623 720 10,090 5,216 3,333 681 9,230(%) 46.5 45.3 40.4 45.2 40.8 41.9 39.4 40.9 (%) 40.8 39.0 33.7 39.2 34.2 35.1 31.4 34.1 (%) 35.8 34.5 33.6 35.1 29.2 29.5 29.8 29.4 (%) 22.9 23.7 21.0 22.9 19.3 20.0 17.1 19.2

    70 Proceeding International association of homes and services for the aging. The third international conference. Aging societies in anew millennium: Global trends in Care and Services June 27-30, 1999.

  • 191

    . 6,371 4,534 4,624 2,870 921(%) 37.5 41.5 51.6 26.7 52.9 (%) 29.9 36.3 44.6 19.8 48.6 (%) 27.8 28.5 37.8 21.3 42.2 (%) 20.1 21.6 21.8 11.5 28.7

    6.23

    6.4

    20 71

    20 20 20 45 28 0.6 20

    20 60-69 ( 37 34) 80 62 65 60-69 0.7 0.8 0.6 80 0.8 20 ( 6.24)

    71 8 9 4 (1) (2) 20 (3) (4)

  • 192

    80 20 (0.4)

    6.24

    60-69 70-79 80+ 60-69 70-79 80+

    5,336 3,384 699 9,419 5,652 3,589 712 9,953 20 (%) . 36.8 49.2 61.8 44.0 34.0 50.7 65.3 44.4(%) . 26.1 28.2 33.3 27.7 25.9 28.1 26.3 26.7 : 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.6

    20 40 0.8 (0.7) (0.6) 0.5 ( 2.26)

    6.25

    60-69 70-79 80+ 60-69 70-79 80+

    5,761 3,632 723 10,116 5,227 3,341 688 9,256 20 (%) . 34.7 49.9 57.3 42.7 35.5 50.1 66.0 44.8(%) . 27.0 29.7 29.6 28.2 25.6 27.6 29.1 26.8 : 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6

    20

    6.26

    . 6,384 4,537 4,627 2,902 922 20 (%) . 47.2 40.4 44.8 43.3 44.1(%) . 28.2 27.9 28.2 19.8 33.9 : 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.8

  • 193

    6.5 (Thai Mental State Examination, TMSE) 72

    : 6 6 3 5 3 10 3

    : 30 23 23 73

    72 45 2536 359-37473 ,

  • 194

    (1) 5 80-84 85 60 77 85

    6.27

    6.1

    (%) 60-69 16.3 5,294

    70-79 27.0 3,36080+ 47.2 685 23.8 9,339

    60-69 22.1 5,60570-79 38.6 3,55680+ 70.3 702 35.2 9,863

  • 195

    6.28

    (%) 60-69 12.1 5,720

    70-79 23.1 3,60480+ 52.1 713 21.4 10,037

    60-69 22.0 5,17970-79 37.1 3,31280+ 63.7 674 33.1 9,165

    6.29

    (%) 60-69 14.7 3,724

    70-79 28.4 2,19080+ 54.6 442 26.0 6,356

    60-69 14.7 2,44770-79 28.4 1,72080+ 54.6 336 26.0 4,503

    60-69 21.1 2,64270-79 36.2 1,58380+ 63.9 366 31.3 4,591

    60-69 21.7 1,53870-79 36.5 1,11080+ 59.9 185 32.9 2,833

    60-69 10.6 54870-79 20.2 31380+ 47.4 58 17.7 919

  • 196

    6.6

    74

    (.. 2535-2554) ... .. 2546 75

    3

    19,297

    6.6.1 80 (60 - 69 ) 84 79 70 70 - 79 80 2.7 13.2 3.2 ( 6.30)

    90 10 66 49 20( 6.32) ( 6.31)

    74 , . 2543.

    75 Suthichai Jitapunkul et al. National Policies on Ageing and Long-term Care for Older Persons in Thailand, 2001.

  • 197

    1 - 4

    7660-69

    6.30

    60-69 70-79 80+ 60-69 70-79 80+

    5,323 3,378 691 9,392 5,643 3,581 710 9,934 (%) 90.3 86.3 78.3 87.4 82.4 75.5 68.0 77.9 (%) 2.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.2 1.5 1.0 1.8/ (%) 5.5 10.3 18.4 8.8 12.4 20.1 28.3 17.4/ (%) 2.3 2.1 1.8 2.2 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.0

    6.31

    60-69 70-79 80+ 60-69 70-79 80+

    5,749 3,626 721 10,096 5,217 3,333 680 9,230 (%) 76.2 71.8 60.5 72.5 89.6 83.1 76.1 85.5 (%) 6.4 4.6 3.8 5.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4/ (%) 12.6 18.3 30.9 17.1 8.0 14.9 22.0 12.3/ (%) 4.8 5.3 4.7 4.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.8

    6.32

    . 6,379 4,532 4,624 2,870 921 (%) 78.9 84.6 85.1 85.6 56.2 (%) 2.2 0.6 0.6 1.6 13.6/ (%) 10.9 15.9 24.6 14.9 7.0/ (%) 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.0 1.9

    :

    76 , 2539,

  • 198

    6.6.2 3 - - -

    3 77 3 40 21-29 60 70

    .. 2513 10 11 12 .. 2523 2533 18 .. 2543 78 .. 2547 17

    6.2 .. 2513-2547

    : .. 2513, 2523, 2533 2543 .. 2547 79

    77 John Knodel and Napaporn Chayowan. Family Support and Living Arrangement of Thai Elderly. Asia-Pacific Population Journalvol.12, No. 4, December 1997.

    78 : , , 2545 www.nhf.or.th79 Madee Kanchanakijsakul et al. Consequences of Demographic Transition on Thai elderly Living Arrangements. Journal of Population

    and Social Studies, Volume 10, Number 1, July 2003.

  • 199

    60 - 69 3 70 - 79 8.3 8.9 80

    16.8 60 - 69 70 - 79 18 16 80 11

    12

    6.33

    60-69 70-79 80+ 60-69 70-79 80+

    5,324 3,379 691 9,394 5,642 3,579 710 9,931 (%) 4.4 5.6 6.8 5.1 7.6 11.1 11.7 9.4 (%) 22.1 22.4 16.9 21.4 14.8 9.8 3.9 11.5 (%) 15.7 18.7 28.6 18.4 19.8 25.5 28.8 23.0 3 (%) 44.4 42.8 37.1 42.9 41.7 39.7 42.1 41.2 (%) 13.4 10.6 10.6 12.2 16.1 13.9 13.5 15.0

    60-69 70-79 80+ 60-69 70-79 80+

    5,750 3,625 720 10,095 5,216 3,333 681 9,230 (%) 5.3 7.8 9.0 6.6 6.4 9.0 9.9 7.7 (%) 15.4 13.5 7.4 13.6 19.2 16.0 9.9 16.7 (%) 22.1 24.0 33.0 24.3 16.3 22.0 27.3 19.8 3 (%) 40.5 40.4 35.8 39.8 43.9 41.3 41.4 42.7 (%) 16.8 14.2 14.8 15.7 14.2 11.8 11.5 13.0

    6.34

    80 , , 2539.

  • 200

    6.6.3 80 ( 6.2)

    (1) 30 38 10 6

    80 52 57

    6 ( 6.36)

    . 6,376 4,534 4,626 2,868 921 (%) 7.6 9.3 6.0 8.5 4.5 (%) 13.7 19.7 14.7 19.0 9.8 (%) 23.8 23.9 18.4 13.1 33.6 3 (%) 41.9 33.4 47.9 42.3 40.3 (%) 13.0 13.7 13.1 17.1 11.9

    6.35

    60-69 70-79 80+ 60-69 70-79 80+

    5,325 3,376 692 9,393 5,639 3,577 709 9,925 (%) 21.7 32.2 52.3 29.2 30.4 40.6 56.7 37.9 (%) 6.0 5.9 7.2 6.1 5.8 6.5 5.7 6.0

    (2)

    6.36

  • 201

    60-69 23 33 80 45 55 55 57

    10 8 5

    (3) 42 (36) (3


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