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1 RETOOLING DATA MANAGEMENT TOWARD SYSTEMS THINKING Jim Purcell Slide 2 2 Cliff Note Overview of Systems Thinking A discipline called systems thinking treats interrelating activities of physical processes, informational systems and organizational groups as integral whole entities. Its guiding principle is called The Primacy of the Whole. The parts cannot be understood fully except from a holistic frame of reference. Theorists on the organizational side include Peter Senge, whose influential 1990 book The Fifth Discipline promotes these ideas. Senge (pronounced sen-ghee) Slide 3 3 Projected Population Change 2000-2025 Oklahoma will grow 20% by 2025. Growth is 18 th in the nation. Do we want this growth to be of educated citizens? Slide 4 4 Student Pipeline Student Pipeline The National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education. US Census Bureau Oklahoma is better than the national average in the high school graduation rate of 9 th graders; however, OK lags behind the nation in the percent of students who enter, persist, and graduate from college. Of 100 9th Graders, How Many... This impacts Brain Gain Goals Slide 5 5 Inefficiencies within the education pipeline are particularly disappointing considering the following: OK ranks 43rd in students going directly from HS to College Slide 6 6 Slide 7 7 Slide 8 8 Slide 9 9 Slide 10 10 Slide 11 11 OK ranks 46th in graduating students on time from college. Graduation Rates Percent of Bachelors Students Graduating within Six Years (%) - 2000 Slide 12 12 Projected Change in Employment by Education and Training, 1998-2008 Education andPercent Training CategoryIncrease Doctoral Degree23 Masters Degree19 Bachelors Degree24 Associate Degree31 Vocational Training14 Work Experience12 On-Job Training7 All Occupations14 Source: Monthly Labor Review, U.S. Bureau of Labor Slide 13 13 Slide 14 14 State Per Capita Personal Income v. Share of Adult Population with Bachelors Degree or Higher (2003) Population with Bachelors Degree or higher Per Capita Income $16,000 $18,000 $20,000 $22,000 $24,000 $26,000 $28,000 $30,000 15%20%25%30%35%40%45% OK00 OK03 No state with a low proportion of Bachelors degrees has a high per capita income. No state with a high proportion of Bachelors degrees has a low per capita income. Slide 15 15 State Per Capita Personal Income v. Share of Adult Population with Bachelors Degree or Higher (2003) Population with Bachelors Degree or higher Per Capita Income DC CT NJ MA MD VA CO CAWA IL IN ME SC MINV AZ TX IA WV AR MS ID OK LA KY AL MT NM UT ND SD TN WY NC KS OR NE MO OH WI GA FL PA HI VT RI NH DE MN NY AK $16,000 $18,000 $20,000 $22,000 $24,000 $26,000 $28,000 $30,000 15%20%25%30%35%40%45% From 2000 to 2003, Oklahoma increased in the number of bachelors degrees for Oklahomans age 25 and older from 20.2 to 21.9 and from 47th to 42rd in the state rankings. Slide 16 16 Progress over time AMC = American Community Survey is conducted by the Census Bureau Slide 17 17 Interstate Comparison A map comparing the states can best explain our progress. Using the Jenks optimization statistical formula, states can be organized into natural clusters that minimize the variation within the clusters. The following map displays the three natural groups of states. The good news is that Oklahoma is now at the top of the bottom group. With effort, Oklahoma could surpass Iowa and find itself in the middle group. Slide 18 18 State Population with Bachelors Degree or Higher Age 25 Years and Older, 2003 21.9 21.5 24.5 19.0 25.3 24.1 23.7 34.7 22.5 Slide 19 19 1.Progress has been made. 2.Oklahoma has the potential to achieve an important psychological (and statistical threshold) in the next few years. Slide 20 20 Talk in terms of Systems Thinking about: Planning -- Institutional Goals Assessment Accreditation Institutional Research Data Management/ Web Development Slide 21 21 Reference The online publication The School Administrator Web Edition, November 2004, describes applications of Senges Laws to education. Senge identified certain patterns that occur again and again. He calls these reoccurring patterns: the laws of systems thinking Slide 22 22 Today's problems come from yesterday's solutions Why are educators struggling to reduce class sizes today? 1900s efficiency experts convinced educators that increasing class sizes would make their schools more efficient. Large classrooms built upon this assumption. Dewey Decimal System and Library of Congress Cataloging systems. Timeliness versus Accuracy. Slide 23 23 HEGIS Codes: Not revised since 1970 system created in mid 70s - Not directly relate to CIP Uncollected data points Full names Hours attempted Facilities inventory report Imperfect Data different institutional interpretations of definitions, not enough test of reasonability checks No real deadline- Point of exhaustion Today's problems come from yesterday's solutions Slide 24 24 Summer Reading Week of Welcome discussions with faculty in three small groups meetings and with the author. Assessment: Only 25% read it. Redesign: Added to English Composition class. 80% read it. Pause to think day Mid-semester event to celebrate intellectuality. Assessment: Pause to drink day Redesign: No more day. Today's problems come from yesterday's solutions Slide 25 25 Crack Children Study None of your kids will fall through the crack Assessment: Extensive Study A few cracks Redesign: Orientation, Freshman Experience, Early Intervention Historical Context important Vested Interest in Past Solutions Undoing the past may be an important part of the future Today's problems come from yesterday's solutions Slide 26 26 The harder you push, the harder the system pushes back. Haven't we all felt the counter-push in our job? The harder you try to convince faculty that they need to improve their teaching methods... the more they resist and the harder it is to get them to change. 5 question course evaluation and they got to pick the courses to be evaluated. Crimes against the humanities Data that fights back Many to many links The one question that they want answered, we do not have the data for. Expect opposing viewpoints. Slide 27 27 Behavior grows better before it grows worse. Short-term solutions can exacerbate larger issues. When salaries are frozen, short-term financial pressure is relieved. However, staff morale begins to falter. Deferred maintenance on buildings. Across the board budget cuts Hope Scholarship Declining hours enrolled Increased course withdrawals It may be hard to recognize the connection between the two. Unintended consequences are a part of the future. Slide 28 28 The easy way out usually leads back in. When we stick to what we know best and apply the familiar solutions, we find comfort. Nip it in the bud More money Grade inflation Low admission standard to maximize revenue Keeping remediation because it is a revenue generator. Croaker Sack A little difficulty now saves a lot of difficulty later. Slide 29 29 The cure can be worse than the disease. The familiar solution is sometimes not just ineffective, but also dangerous. Reducing summer salary. ADA web regulations. Eliminating educational programs to balance the budget masks the need for more money and can trigger a long-term dismantling process. Program elimination at the University of Alabama. Change must be based upon sound evaluation. Understanding side affects is important. Slide 30 30 Faster is slower. Natural systems have an optimal rate of growth. It is usually much slower than we would like. System conversion Oracle, PeopleSoft, SCT Policy changes are developed in an hour, but go through campus governance for years. Hiring a consultant often necessary. It takes time to build consensus. People need time to emote, contemplate and acquiesce. Slide 31 31 Cause and effect are not closely related in time and space. Rising tuition may lead to fewer degrees. People may not see the connection for 6 or more years. Amount of student loans may impact future quality of life. Dry campuses may move the problem of underage drinking off campus. Rising cost of litigations may be a factor in dry campus policies rather than the desire to protect the student. A college president hated his college dorm experience and thus never supported residence halls. The past impacts the future. Slide 32 32 Small change can produce big results, but the areas of highest leverage are often the least obvious. Small, well-focused actions can produce solid improvements, but only if done in the right place. This is called leverage. Kitchen Cabinet - impacts attitudes of input New IR /Assessment emphasis Perception of presiential avialaibiltiy In the absence of comm rumors fly. Library location, Library access, hours, etc. Pinpoint accuracy in change is better than the shotgun approach. Slide 33 33 You can have your cake and eat it too, but not all at once. Sometimes dilemmas, from a systems point of view, are not dilemmas at all. Once you change from a "snapshot" to a "process" mode of thinking, they appear differently. Instructional Computer technology It is a matter of time and small steps. Slide 34 34 Slide 35 35 Dividing an elephant in half does not produce two small elephants. Systems are alive, and their character depends upon the whole. To understand difficult problems or plot strategy, you will have to see the whole system that creates the issues. Department split over ideology - neither alone would survive Simon and Garfunkel Slide 36 36 Half of the harm that is done in this world is due to people who want to feel important. They don't mean to do harm. But the harm does not interest them.--T.S. Eliot Great bodies of people are never responsible for what they do. --Virginia Woolf