Download - 謝儒生 龐繼元 謝崇文 謝正裕 鄭瑛彬 賴慧明 葉南輝 許宗益
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謝儒生 龐繼元 謝崇文 謝正裕謝儒生 龐繼元 謝崇文 謝正裕鄭瑛彬 賴慧明 葉南輝 許宗益鄭瑛彬 賴慧明 葉南輝 許宗益
The Bullwhip Effect in The Bullwhip Effect in Supply ChainSupply Chain
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Bullwhip EffectBullwhip Effect
Also Known as the “whiplash” or the “whipsaw” effect
Distorted information from one end of a supply chain to the other can lead to tremendous inefficiencies Excessive inventory investment Poor customer service Lost revenues Misguided capacity plans Ineffective transportation Missed production schedules
Case: - P&G’s Pampers & order to 3M - HP printer distorted the demand information
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Stockpile because of the degree Stockpile because of the degree of demand uncertainties and of demand uncertainties and
variabilitiesvariabilities Distorted information has led every in
the supply chain The plant warehouse Manufacturer’s shuttle warehouse Manufacturer’s market warehouse Distributor’s central warehouse Distributor’s regional warehouse Retail store’s storage space
Total supply chain may contain more than one year’s supply
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High tech companies can realize major savings by reacting to fluctuations in demand
Acer lost more than 1 billion on inventory in 1996.
Minimum StockProcess VarianceSupply VarianceDemand Variance
Root Causes of High Root Causes of High InventoryInventory
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Bullwhip EffectBullwhip Effect Demand forecast updating Order batching Price fluctuation Rationing and shortage gaming
Information sharing Demand information thru downstream site to upstream
site Channel alignment Transportation Inventory planning Pricing Ownership Operational efficiency
Reduce cost Lead time
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Demand forecast updatingDemand forecast updating
Forecasting for production scheduling, capacity planning, inventory control, MRP Forecasting is offten based on
order history Demand signal processing
Downstream operation order -> Upstream manager readjust demand forecast + safety stock -> Place orders to suppliers
Use the potential smoothing to update the forecast across suppliers
Issues
Make demand data from downstream site available to the upstream site & both of them can update the forecast Use EDI to share data Upstream site could control
Re-supply from upstream to down stream and update the necessary forecast (VMI or CRP)
Get demand information about downstream site by bypassing it
Just-in-time replenishment
Solution
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Order batchingOrder batching
Batches or accumulate demands before issuing and order, weekly, biweekly or monthly Time and cost of processing
an order MRP run monthly Economics of transportation End-of-quarter or End-of-year
surge
Issues
Devise strategies that lead to smaller batches or more frequent supply Using EDI to lower the
transaction cost for more frequently orders
Order frequency is much higher, the frequency of deliveries to the distributors remains unchanged
Using third-party logistics
Solution
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Price FluctuationPrice Fluctuation
Promotions like price discounts, quantity discounts, coupons, rebates result in price fluctuation Buying at low price and stop
buying until it has depleted its inventory
Buying pattern does not reflect its consumption pattern
Rational decision compare inventory cost and price differential
Build huge piles of inventory to anticipate big swings in demand
Dumbest marketing ploy ever
Issues
Reduce both the frequency and the level of wholesale price discounting Establish a uniform wholesale
pricing policy Use CAO (Computer-Assisted
ordering) or CRP (Continuous Replenishment Program) to enable companies to recognize the excessive costs of forward buying
Implement ABC system
Solutions
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Shortage GamingShortage Gaming
Knowing that the manufacture will ration when the product is in short supply, customer exaggerate their real needs whey they order Orders will suddenly disappear
when order cools Customers overaction for
anticipating shortage Overlap ordering and accept
the firsts supplier and cancel others
Suppliers made decision based on the little information
Issues
When a supplier faces a shortage instead of allocating products based on orders, it can allocate in proportion to past sales records Sharing of capacity and
inventory information Work with customers to place
orders well in advance of the sales season
Penalty for exaggerate gaming
Solutions
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Counteract the Bullwhip Counteract the Bullwhip
effect by eBusiness effect by eBusiness
technologytechnology
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理想的目標理想的目標 : : 零延遲零延遲 ((Zero-latency)Zero-latency) 的的企業營運企業營運
• Latency = time it takes to respond to an input
• Zero-latency = Immediate exchange of information across geographical, technical and organizational boundaries
• Divisions, departments even groups in external business partners are treated as cooperating subsystems, regardless of where they are located
• As soon as new information is captured by any application system in any workgroup, it is made available to all other interested parties
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The Problem StatementThe Problem Statement Maximizing Customer Satisfaction & Profits
through optimization of Inventory Level, Product Mix, Re-order Cycles & Production Lead-time
Lead-time
Re-order Frequency
Product Mix
Inventory
+
+ +
+
-
-
- -
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Squeezing the Model for Squeezing the Model for Profitability & Customer Profitability & Customer
SatisfactionSatisfaction
Lead-time
Re-order Frequency
Product Mix
Inventory
+
+ +
+
-
-
- -
Shorten total Production
Cycle
Standard Parts & Modules
At daily or hourly
FG = Zero
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e-Supply Chain Integratione-Supply Chain Integration
Resellers
OEM Customers
DistributorsSupplier
Supplier
Supplier
OEM
MFG
OEM
Dist
MFG
Dist
Intra-Enterprise IntegrationInter-EnterpriseIntegration
Inter-EnterpriseIntegration
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e-Supply Chain Communitye-Supply Chain Communitye-Supply Chain Communitye-Supply Chain Community
Suppliers-SuppliersSupplier Community Enterprise Customers
APS
APS
CDP
GRA
SCP
MCP
GSP
APS
APS
APS
APS
APS
APS
APS
APS
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Extended eCollaborationExtended eCollaboration
Demand &Supply
Collaboration
Demand &Supply
CollaborationDesign
Collaboration
Design Collaboration
eDemandeDemand
eSupplyeSupply
eCADeCAD
eCSMeCSM
eSourcing/eRFQ
eSourcing/eRFQeProcumenteProcument
Process Collaboration
eDataTransport
Manuf. Collaboration
Manuf. Collaboration
eDataTransport
eDataTransport
Fulfillment Collaboration
Fulfillment Collaboration
eFulfillmenteFulfillment
Fulfillment Collaboration
Fulfillment Collaboration
Transport.Plan
Transport.Plan
Process Collaboration
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MANUFCATURER (Hub)
EEAI
AI
E-SCM
ERM
CRM
ERP
CMC/PDM
ADP.ADP.
ADP.ADP.
ADP.ADP.
ADP.ADP.
ADP.ADP.
InternetWarehouse
Distributor
Supplier
SUPPLIER (Spoke)
XML/Rosettanet
EEAI
AI
Process CollaborationProcess Collaboration
PrivateProcess
PublicProcess
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ERPERP
PlanningPlanning
PDMPDM
MfgMfg
PlanningPlanning
OtherOther
Order ProcOrder Proc
FinancialFinancial
PurchasingPurchasing
ProcessProcessBrokerBroker
ProcessProcessBrokerBroker
ProcessProcessBrokerBroker
InternetInternet
PublicProcess
PrivateProcess
PrivateProcess
PrivateProcess
PublicProcess
Process CollaborationProcess Collaboration
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Extended eCollaborationExtended eCollaboration
Demand &Supply
Collaboration
Demand &Supply
Collaboration
eDemandeDemand
eSupplyeSupply
eProcumenteProcument
Process Collaboration
eDataTransport
eDataTransport
eDataTransport
Design Collaboration
Design Collaboration
eCADeCAD
eCSMeCSM
eSourcing/eRFQ
eSourcing/eRFQ
Manuf. Collaboration
Manuf. Collaboration
Fulfillment Collaboration
Fulfillment Collaboration
eFulfillmenteFulfillment
Fulfillment Collaboration
Fulfillment Collaboration
Transport.Plan
Transport.Plan
Design Collaboration
Design Collaboration
eCADeCAD
eCSMeCSM
eSourcing/eRFQ
eSourcing/eRFQ
Manuf. Collaboration
Manuf. Collaboration
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The Flow of New Product The Flow of New Product IntroductionIntroduction
FeasibilityStudy
MarketingMarketingProjectTeam
ProjectTeam SalesSales RDRD MEME IEIE QAQA PURPUR MPLMPL FINFIN
DesignFunction
Verif.Sample
ApprovalImproveManuf.
Mass Prod.
Project Management
DesignPanning
設計規劃書開發日程表
FMEA產品設計圖CAE分析BOMMock up sampleTooling
零件評估報告品質計劃書製造作業規範檢驗規範安規報告產品評估報告Prototype Release
零件評估報告品質計劃書製造作業規範檢驗規範安規報告產品評估報告Prototype Release
零件評估報告品質計劃書製造作業規範檢驗規範安規報告產品評估報告Prototype Release
Product Design Plan競爭對手分析
成本預估 試驗報告Pilot Release
ECRECO
量產發行ProductionRelease
Design & Manufacturing Design & Manufacturing Collaboration Collaboration
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Supplier B
R&D
Supplier A
share product content data
Will auto to update the AB’s DB after receiving a PDX
Content
Procurement
Compaq
Design & Manufacturing Design & Manufacturing CollaborationCollaboration
AgileAgileeXpresseXpressViewerViewer
Manuf.
iCMiCM
AgileAgileAnywhereAnywhere
AgileAgileAnywhereAnywhere
PDXPDX
AgileAgileBuyerBuyer
PDXPDX
PDXPDX PDXPDX
•Build Packages•Item Master•BOM•AML•Attachments
•ECO Packages•Deviations•RFQs
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Demand Changes•Cost•Performance•Features•Variants
Demand Changes•Cost•Performance•Features•Variants
Supply Changes•Shortages•Component EOL•Quality•Allocations•Pricing•Lead Time
Supply Changes•Shortages•Component EOL•Quality•Allocations•Pricing•Lead Time
Design & Manufacturing Design & Manufacturing Collaboration Collaboration
Product Content, ECOs, MCOs, Deviations, ….Product Content, ECOs, MCOs, Deviations, ….
Parts, BOMs, AMLs, Specifications,
SW, Drawings
Who will supply Components? / How to maintain the DocumentWho will supply Components? / How to maintain the Document
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R&D
Supplier A
Procurement
Design & Manufacturing Design & Manufacturing CollaborationCollaboration
AgileAgileAnywhereAnywhere
AgileAgileBuyerBuyer
RFQ
Response RFQ
RFQSupplier B
AgileAgileeXpresseXpressViewerViewer
PDXPDX
工程師開發一新產品或是對一原有的產品做變更 , 產品資料將自動傳遞至採購人員
採購員將新的產品資訊對合格供應商做詢價 (RFQ)
供應商收到 RFQ 之後可直接連接至 AA 查閱產品相關資料及圖面以提供正確的報價資料
採購員在收到廠商的報價之後 , 決定供應商並下定單
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Extended eCollaborationExtended eCollaboration
Design Collaboration
Design Collaboration
eCADeCAD
eCSMeCSM
eSourcing/eRFQ
eSourcing/eRFQ
Process Collaboration
Manuf. Collaboration
Manuf. Collaboration
eDataTransport
eDataTransport
eDemandeDemand
eSupplyeSupply
eProcumenteProcument
Demand &Supply
Collaboration
Demand &Supply
Collaboration
eDataTransport
Fulfillment Collaboration
Fulfillment Collaboration
eFulfillmenteFulfillment
Fulfillment Collaboration
Fulfillment Collaboration
Transport.Plan
Transport.Plan
eDemandeDemand
eSupplyeSupply
eProcumenteProcument
Demand &Supply
Collaboration
Demand &Supply
Collaboration
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Supplier - Demand CollaborationSupplier - Demand Collaboration
CRM ERP PDM EAI MES
CD
P -
Co
llabo
rative Dem
and
Plan
ner
CS
P -
Co
llabo
rative Su
pp
ly Plan
nerCEP
GRA - Global Real-Time ATP
SCP - Supply Chain Planner
MCP - Material and Capacity Planner
RDS - Reactive Dynamic Scheduler
GSP - Global Strategic Planner
PDP - Product Development Planner
SCC - Supply Chain Controller
CS
P -
Co
llabo
rative Su
pp
ly Plan
ner
CD
P -
Co
llabo
rative Dem
and
Plan
ner
Supplier
Customer
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eProcurementeProcurement
MANUFCATURER (Hub)
EEAI
AI
E-SCM
ERM
CRM
ERP
CMC/PDM
ADP.ADP.
ADP.ADP.
ADP.ADP.
ADP.ADP.
ADP.ADP.
InternetWarehouse
Distributor
Supplier
SUPPLIER (Spoke)
XML/Rosettanet
EEAI
AI
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MANUFCATURER (Hub)
e-PO
EEAI
AI
E-SCM
ERM
CRM
ERP
CMC/PDM
ADP.ADP.
ADP.ADP.
ADP.ADP.
ADP.ADP.
ADP.ADP.
Internet e-BoxWarehouse
e-PODistributor
Supplier
SUPPLIER (Spoke)
XML/Rosettanet
eProcurementeProcurement
傳送控管作業
傳送控管作業
報價單作業
報價單作業
預測訂單作業
預測訂單作業
對帳單作業
對帳單作業
收料驗收作業
收料驗收作業
送貨通知作業
送貨通知作業
訂單作業作業
訂單作業作業
ePOePO
對帳單作業
對帳單作業
出貨通知作業
出貨通知作業
訂單作業
訂單作業
eBoxeBox
傳送控管作業
傳送控管作業
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Traditional Supply Chain Information Network
Stream-Lined Supply ChainInformation Network
Trading Exchange
Intelligent Marketplace Intelligent Marketplace PortalPortal