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Page 1: 謝儒生 龐繼元 謝崇文 謝正裕 鄭瑛彬 賴慧明 葉南輝 許宗益

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謝儒生 龐繼元 謝崇文 謝正裕謝儒生 龐繼元 謝崇文 謝正裕鄭瑛彬 賴慧明 葉南輝 許宗益鄭瑛彬 賴慧明 葉南輝 許宗益

The Bullwhip Effect in The Bullwhip Effect in Supply ChainSupply Chain

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Bullwhip EffectBullwhip Effect

Also Known as the “whiplash” or the “whipsaw” effect

Distorted information from one end of a supply chain to the other can lead to tremendous inefficiencies Excessive inventory investment Poor customer service Lost revenues Misguided capacity plans Ineffective transportation Missed production schedules

Case: - P&G’s Pampers & order to 3M - HP printer distorted the demand information

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Increasing Variability of Increasing Variability of OrdersOrders

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Stockpile because of the degree Stockpile because of the degree of demand uncertainties and of demand uncertainties and

variabilitiesvariabilities Distorted information has led every in

the supply chain The plant warehouse Manufacturer’s shuttle warehouse Manufacturer’s market warehouse Distributor’s central warehouse Distributor’s regional warehouse Retail store’s storage space

Total supply chain may contain more than one year’s supply

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High tech companies can realize major savings by reacting to fluctuations in demand

Acer lost more than 1 billion on inventory in 1996.

Minimum StockProcess VarianceSupply VarianceDemand Variance

Root Causes of High Root Causes of High InventoryInventory

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Bullwhip EffectBullwhip Effect Demand forecast updating Order batching Price fluctuation Rationing and shortage gaming

Information sharing Demand information thru downstream site to upstream

site Channel alignment Transportation Inventory planning Pricing Ownership Operational efficiency

Reduce cost Lead time

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Demand forecast updatingDemand forecast updating

Forecasting for production scheduling, capacity planning, inventory control, MRP Forecasting is offten based on

order history Demand signal processing

Downstream operation order -> Upstream manager readjust demand forecast + safety stock -> Place orders to suppliers

Use the potential smoothing to update the forecast across suppliers

Issues

Make demand data from downstream site available to the upstream site & both of them can update the forecast Use EDI to share data Upstream site could control

Re-supply from upstream to down stream and update the necessary forecast (VMI or CRP)

Get demand information about downstream site by bypassing it

Just-in-time replenishment

Solution

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Order placed VS Actual SalesOrder placed VS Actual Sales

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Order batchingOrder batching

Batches or accumulate demands before issuing and order, weekly, biweekly or monthly Time and cost of processing

an order MRP run monthly Economics of transportation End-of-quarter or End-of-year

surge

Issues

Devise strategies that lead to smaller batches or more frequent supply Using EDI to lower the

transaction cost for more frequently orders

Order frequency is much higher, the frequency of deliveries to the distributors remains unchanged

Using third-party logistics

Solution

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Price FluctuationPrice Fluctuation

Promotions like price discounts, quantity discounts, coupons, rebates result in price fluctuation Buying at low price and stop

buying until it has depleted its inventory

Buying pattern does not reflect its consumption pattern

Rational decision compare inventory cost and price differential

Build huge piles of inventory to anticipate big swings in demand

Dumbest marketing ploy ever

Issues

Reduce both the frequency and the level of wholesale price discounting Establish a uniform wholesale

pricing policy Use CAO (Computer-Assisted

ordering) or CRP (Continuous Replenishment Program) to enable companies to recognize the excessive costs of forward buying

Implement ABC system

Solutions

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Shortage GamingShortage Gaming

Knowing that the manufacture will ration when the product is in short supply, customer exaggerate their real needs whey they order Orders will suddenly disappear

when order cools Customers overaction for

anticipating shortage Overlap ordering and accept

the firsts supplier and cancel others

Suppliers made decision based on the little information

Issues

When a supplier faces a shortage instead of allocating products based on orders, it can allocate in proportion to past sales records Sharing of capacity and

inventory information Work with customers to place

orders well in advance of the sales season

Penalty for exaggerate gaming

Solutions

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Counteract the Bullwhip Counteract the Bullwhip

effect by eBusiness effect by eBusiness

technologytechnology

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理想的目標理想的目標 : : 零延遲零延遲 ((Zero-latency)Zero-latency) 的的企業營運企業營運

• Latency = time it takes to respond to an input

• Zero-latency = Immediate exchange of information across geographical, technical and organizational boundaries

• Divisions, departments even groups in external business partners are treated as cooperating subsystems, regardless of where they are located

• As soon as new information is captured by any application system in any workgroup, it is made available to all other interested parties

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The Problem StatementThe Problem Statement Maximizing Customer Satisfaction & Profits

through optimization of Inventory Level, Product Mix, Re-order Cycles & Production Lead-time

Lead-time

Re-order Frequency

Product Mix

Inventory

+

+ +

+

-

-

- -

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Squeezing the Model for Squeezing the Model for Profitability & Customer Profitability & Customer

SatisfactionSatisfaction

Lead-time

Re-order Frequency

Product Mix

Inventory

+

+ +

+

-

-

- -

Shorten total Production

Cycle

Standard Parts & Modules

At daily or hourly

FG = Zero

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e-Supply Chain Integratione-Supply Chain Integration

Resellers

OEM Customers

DistributorsSupplier

Supplier

Supplier

OEM

MFG

OEM

Dist

MFG

Dist

Intra-Enterprise IntegrationInter-EnterpriseIntegration

Inter-EnterpriseIntegration

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e-Supply Chain Communitye-Supply Chain Communitye-Supply Chain Communitye-Supply Chain Community

Suppliers-SuppliersSupplier Community Enterprise Customers

APS

APS

CDP

GRA

SCP

MCP

GSP

APS

APS

APS

APS

APS

APS

APS

APS

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Extended eCollaborationExtended eCollaboration

Demand &Supply

Collaboration

Demand &Supply

CollaborationDesign

Collaboration

Design Collaboration

eDemandeDemand

eSupplyeSupply

eCADeCAD

eCSMeCSM

eSourcing/eRFQ

eSourcing/eRFQeProcumenteProcument

Process Collaboration

eDataTransport

Manuf. Collaboration

Manuf. Collaboration

eDataTransport

eDataTransport

Fulfillment Collaboration

Fulfillment Collaboration

eFulfillmenteFulfillment

Fulfillment Collaboration

Fulfillment Collaboration

Transport.Plan

Transport.Plan

Process Collaboration

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MANUFCATURER (Hub)

EEAI

AI

E-SCM

ERM

CRM

E-mail

ERP

CMC/PDM

ADP.ADP.

ADP.ADP.

ADP.ADP.

ADP.ADP.

ADP.ADP.

InternetWarehouse

Distributor

Supplier

SUPPLIER (Spoke)

XML/Rosettanet

EEAI

AI

Process CollaborationProcess Collaboration

PrivateProcess

PublicProcess

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ERPERP

PlanningPlanning

PDMPDM

MfgMfg

PlanningPlanning

OtherOther

Order ProcOrder Proc

FinancialFinancial

PurchasingPurchasing

ProcessProcessBrokerBroker

ProcessProcessBrokerBroker

ProcessProcessBrokerBroker

InternetInternet

PublicProcess

PrivateProcess

PrivateProcess

PrivateProcess

PublicProcess

Process CollaborationProcess Collaboration

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Extended eCollaborationExtended eCollaboration

Demand &Supply

Collaboration

Demand &Supply

Collaboration

eDemandeDemand

eSupplyeSupply

eProcumenteProcument

Process Collaboration

eDataTransport

eDataTransport

eDataTransport

Design Collaboration

Design Collaboration

eCADeCAD

eCSMeCSM

eSourcing/eRFQ

eSourcing/eRFQ

Manuf. Collaboration

Manuf. Collaboration

Fulfillment Collaboration

Fulfillment Collaboration

eFulfillmenteFulfillment

Fulfillment Collaboration

Fulfillment Collaboration

Transport.Plan

Transport.Plan

Design Collaboration

Design Collaboration

eCADeCAD

eCSMeCSM

eSourcing/eRFQ

eSourcing/eRFQ

Manuf. Collaboration

Manuf. Collaboration

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The Flow of New Product The Flow of New Product IntroductionIntroduction

FeasibilityStudy

MarketingMarketingProjectTeam

ProjectTeam SalesSales RDRD MEME IEIE QAQA PURPUR MPLMPL FINFIN

DesignFunction

Verif.Sample

ApprovalImproveManuf.

Mass Prod.

Project Management

DesignPanning

設計規劃書開發日程表

FMEA產品設計圖CAE分析BOMMock up sampleTooling

零件評估報告品質計劃書製造作業規範檢驗規範安規報告產品評估報告Prototype Release

零件評估報告品質計劃書製造作業規範檢驗規範安規報告產品評估報告Prototype Release

零件評估報告品質計劃書製造作業規範檢驗規範安規報告產品評估報告Prototype Release

Product Design Plan競爭對手分析

成本預估 試驗報告Pilot Release

ECRECO

量產發行ProductionRelease

Design & Manufacturing Design & Manufacturing Collaboration Collaboration

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Supplier B

R&D

Supplier A

share product content data

Will auto to update the AB’s DB after receiving a PDX

Content

Procurement

Compaq

Design & Manufacturing Design & Manufacturing CollaborationCollaboration

AgileAgileeXpresseXpressViewerViewer

Manuf.

iCMiCM

AgileAgileAnywhereAnywhere

AgileAgileAnywhereAnywhere

PDXPDX

AgileAgileBuyerBuyer

PDXPDX

PDXPDX PDXPDX

•Build Packages•Item Master•BOM•AML•Attachments

•ECO Packages•Deviations•RFQs

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Demand Changes•Cost•Performance•Features•Variants

Demand Changes•Cost•Performance•Features•Variants

Supply Changes•Shortages•Component EOL•Quality•Allocations•Pricing•Lead Time

Supply Changes•Shortages•Component EOL•Quality•Allocations•Pricing•Lead Time

Design & Manufacturing Design & Manufacturing Collaboration Collaboration

Product Content, ECOs, MCOs, Deviations, ….Product Content, ECOs, MCOs, Deviations, ….

Parts, BOMs, AMLs, Specifications,

SW, Drawings

Who will supply Components? / How to maintain the DocumentWho will supply Components? / How to maintain the Document

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R&D

Supplier A

Procurement

Design & Manufacturing Design & Manufacturing CollaborationCollaboration

AgileAgileAnywhereAnywhere

AgileAgileBuyerBuyer

RFQ

Response RFQ

RFQSupplier B

AgileAgileeXpresseXpressViewerViewer

PDXPDX

工程師開發一新產品或是對一原有的產品做變更 , 產品資料將自動傳遞至採購人員

採購員將新的產品資訊對合格供應商做詢價 (RFQ)

供應商收到 RFQ 之後可直接連接至 AA 查閱產品相關資料及圖面以提供正確的報價資料

採購員在收到廠商的報價之後 , 決定供應商並下定單

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Extended eCollaborationExtended eCollaboration

Design Collaboration

Design Collaboration

eCADeCAD

eCSMeCSM

eSourcing/eRFQ

eSourcing/eRFQ

Process Collaboration

Manuf. Collaboration

Manuf. Collaboration

eDataTransport

eDataTransport

eDemandeDemand

eSupplyeSupply

eProcumenteProcument

Demand &Supply

Collaboration

Demand &Supply

Collaboration

eDataTransport

Fulfillment Collaboration

Fulfillment Collaboration

eFulfillmenteFulfillment

Fulfillment Collaboration

Fulfillment Collaboration

Transport.Plan

Transport.Plan

eDemandeDemand

eSupplyeSupply

eProcumenteProcument

Demand &Supply

Collaboration

Demand &Supply

Collaboration

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Supplier - Demand CollaborationSupplier - Demand Collaboration

CRM ERP PDM EAI MES

CD

P -

Co

llabo

rative Dem

and

Plan

ner

CS

P -

Co

llabo

rative Su

pp

ly Plan

nerCEP

GRA - Global Real-Time ATP

SCP - Supply Chain Planner

MCP - Material and Capacity Planner

RDS - Reactive Dynamic Scheduler

GSP - Global Strategic Planner

PDP - Product Development Planner

SCC - Supply Chain Controller

CS

P -

Co

llabo

rative Su

pp

ly Plan

ner

CD

P -

Co

llabo

rative Dem

and

Plan

ner

Supplier

Customer

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eProcurementeProcurement

MANUFCATURER (Hub)

EEAI

AI

E-SCM

ERM

CRM

E-mail

ERP

CMC/PDM

ADP.ADP.

ADP.ADP.

ADP.ADP.

ADP.ADP.

ADP.ADP.

InternetWarehouse

Distributor

Supplier

SUPPLIER (Spoke)

XML/Rosettanet

EEAI

AI

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MANUFCATURER (Hub)

e-PO

EEAI

AI

E-SCM

ERM

CRM

E-mail

ERP

CMC/PDM

ADP.ADP.

ADP.ADP.

ADP.ADP.

ADP.ADP.

ADP.ADP.

Internet e-BoxWarehouse

e-PODistributor

Supplier

SUPPLIER (Spoke)

XML/Rosettanet

eProcurementeProcurement

傳送控管作業

傳送控管作業

報價單作業

報價單作業

預測訂單作業

預測訂單作業

對帳單作業

對帳單作業

收料驗收作業

收料驗收作業

送貨通知作業

送貨通知作業

訂單作業作業

訂單作業作業

ePOePO

對帳單作業

對帳單作業

出貨通知作業

出貨通知作業

訂單作業

訂單作業

eBoxeBox

傳送控管作業

傳送控管作業

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Traditional Supply Chain Information Network

Stream-Lined Supply ChainInformation Network

Trading Exchange

Intelligent Marketplace Intelligent Marketplace PortalPortal


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