douglas economic outlook 2012. gross domestic product seasonally adjusted annual rate
TRANSCRIPT
Douglas Economic Outlook 2012
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
I 2004
II III IV I 2005
II III IV I 2006
II III IV I 2007
II III IV I 2008
II III IV I 2009
II III IV I 2010
II III IV I 2011
II III IV I 2012
II
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-8.9
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
INFLATION (CPI)
Jan 2007
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2008
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2009
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2010
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2011
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2012
Mar
May
Jul
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6% Chart Title
Compared to same month previous year
NATIONAL OUTLOOK
• Continued slow economic growth
• Labor market improvement sluggish
• Short- and long-run inflation threat remains
GDP BY STATE
THE LOCAL ECONOMY
Cochise County & Douglas
COCHISE COUNTY RETAIL SALES GROWTH
Jan
20
07
Ma
rM
ay
Jul
Se
pN
ov
Jan
20
08
Ma
rM
ay
Jul
Se
pN
ov
Jan
20
09
Ma
rM
ay
Jul
Se
pN
ov
Jan
20
10
Ma
rM
ay
Jul
Se
pN
ov
Jan
20
11
Ma
rM
ay
Jul
Se
pN
ov
Jan
20
12
Ma
rM
ay
Jul
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year
DOUGLAS RETAIL SALES TAX REVENUE
Jan
...M
ar
Ma
yJu
lS
ep
No
vJa
n ...
Ma
rM
ay
Jul
Se
pN
ov
Jan
...M
ar
Ma
yJu
lS
ep
No
vJa
n ...
Ma
rM
ay
Jul
Se
pN
ov
Jan
...M
ar
Ma
yJu
lS
ep
No
vJa
n ...
Ma
rM
ay
Jul
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25% Chart Title
Unadjusted; compared to same month previous year
•Cochise County• 2012: 1.8% *• 2011: -1.2%• 2010: -4.8% • 2009: -4.2%• 2008: -6.5%• 2007: -1.3%
•Douglas (Retail Sales Tax Revenue)
• 2012: 6.8% *• 2011: 5.5% • 2010: -1.1%• 2009: -4.8%• 2008: 6.1%• 2007: 2.2%
RETAIL SALES RECENT ACTIVITY
* Jan-Jul only; comparison to same period the previous year
RESTAURANT AND BAR SALES GROWTH
Jan 2007
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2008
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2009
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2010
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2011
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2012
Mar
May
Jul
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Cochise County Douglas
Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year
•Cochise County
• 2012: -4.5% *
• 2011: -0.2%
• 2010: 0.0%
• 2009: 0.3%
• 2008: 0.2%
• 2007: 0.1%
•Douglas
• 2012: 6.4% *
• 2011: 12.9%
• 2010: -1.2%
• 2009: 0.4%
• 2008: -7.7%
• 2007: -2.9%
RESTAURANT & BAR SALES RECENT ACTIVITY
* Jan-Jul only; comparison to same period the previous year
ACCOMMODATION SALES GROWTH
Jan 2
007
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2
008
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2
009
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2
010
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2
011
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2
012
Mar
May
Jul
-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%
0%20%40%60%80%
100%
Cochise County Douglas
Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year
• Cochise County• 2012: -17.7% *
• 2011: -13.1%
• 2010: 8.3%
• 2009: -9.0%
• 2008: 1.0%
• 2007: 19.7%
• Douglas• 2012: -28.2% *
ACCOMMODATION SALES RECENT ACTIVITY
* Jan-Jul only; comparison to same period the previous year
SALES OUTLOOK
• Modest retail sales growth
• Restaurant and bar and accommodation sales trending downward
EMPLOYMENT
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
United States Arizona Cochise CountyDouglas (EPS) Douglas (CER)
* Jan-Jul only; seasonally adjusted
MONTHLY UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
Jan 2011
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan 2012
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
Jul
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
9.1%
9.9%
8.3%
9.2%
7.8%
13.8%
11.9%10.9%
9.2%
United States Arizona Cochise County
Douglas (EPS) Douglas (CER)
Seasonally adjusted
COCHISE COUNTY NONFARM JOB GROWTH
Jan 2008
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2009
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2010
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2011
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2012
Mar
May
Jul
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0% Chart TitleCompared to same month previous year
COCHISE COUNTYJOB GAINS/LOSSES BY INDUSTRY
Construction *
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Federal Government
Manufacturing
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
State and Local Government
-350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100
75
50
50
25
25
25
25
0
0
-25
-300
Chart Title
12 months ended July 2012
* Includes mining
COCHISE COUNTYJOB GROWTH RATE BY INDUSTRY
Construction *
Manufacturing
Other Services
Federal Government
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Leisure and Hospitality
Educational and Health Services
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
State and Local Government
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10%
5.4%
4.8%
2.7%
0.8%
0.8%
0.6%
0.6%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.5%
-4.7%
Chart Title
12 months ended July 2012
* Includes mining
EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK
• Labor market improvement sluggish• Continued slow improvement likely through
2012-2013• Blips along the way
HOUSING AND REAL ESTATE
NEW HOME CONSTRUCTIONSingle Family Residential Building Permits
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
901,108
319
81
12
Cochise County Douglas
Co
ch
ise
Co
un
ty
Do
ug
las
MLS HOME SALES
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20111,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2,097
1,184 1,203
106
79
88
Cochise County Douglas
Coch
ise C
ount
y
Doug
las
MEDIAN HOME PRICE
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*$50,000
$70,000
$90,000
$110,000
$130,000
$150,000
$170,000
$190,000
$210,000
$139,900
$173,900
$192,569 $195,000
$184,000
$182,500 $173,172
$142,125
$125,000
$55,000
$67,000
$91,000
$90,000 $89,750
$99,000 $85,000
$75,000
$61,250
Cochise County Douglas * 1st half only
OUTLOOK• New residential construction picking up
countywide
• Douglas historically has low levels of new residential construction
• Boost to sales from foreclosures/lower prices/lower interest rates
• Continued downward pressure on median price
CONCLUSION• Moving in the right direction, but slowly
• Local retail sales show promise, hospitality continues to struggle
• Countywide, defense spending cuts pose threat
• Labor market improvement slow
• Construction and home sales picking up
• Election year politics
