Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?’Hilborn, R. C. (1994) Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics

We will never be able to escape from the ultimate dilemma that all our knowledge is about the past, and all our decisions are about the future. Ian Wilson (2000) From Scenario Thinking to Strategic Action, Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Firms should engage continually in four activities:

scanning; for warning signs, macro changes and trends that will affect the firmmonitoring; for specific trends and patternsforecasting; developing projections of anticipated outcomes of those trendsassessing; determining timing and effects of macro changes on the firm

Ginter and Duncan (1990)

1. Using an ESTEMPLE analysis, identify the macro-environmental drivers for change in the piano industry. 2. Construct an IMPACT matrix to show how these changes affected Broadwoods and its main competitor, Steinway.

1. Why did the French lose at Crecy?

2. Why did the French lose at Agincourt?

3. What can we conclude about how the French approach to battle changed over this time period?

4. What can we learn about differing views shown in this case on what is strategy?

1. Using SWOT analysis, explain why VBA is successful.

2. What should VBA consider in thinking about its future strategy?

1. How do you account for Nike’s tremendous success?

2. Using ESTEMPLE, explain why Nike suffered a severe decline in 1997.

3. Can Nike repeat its earlier successful strategy?

1. Why was Rover successful in the 1950s?

2. What macro-environmental factors drove change in the car industry post 1950s?

3. Why did Rover decline?

4. In what ways was the alliance with Honda beneficial to both companies?

5. Why did BMW buy Rover?

1. When might scenarios be of use to managers?

2. Why were the Creative and Media students more adept at generating scenarios than other managers?

3. Why should the disposability of the firm affect one’s views of scenarios?

4. Are scenarios a way of ‘remembering the future’?

1. What are the

macro-drivers for change in the Chinese airline industry?

2. Carry out a structural analysis of this industry.

3. Construct future scenarios for the Chinese airline industry.

4. What are the implications for the a. Three main firms? b. The regional competitors?

5. In what ways might the scenarios challenge the prevailing mental models of Chinese airlines?