does sfo 2016 san francisco - julia wester - predictability: no magic required
TRANSCRIPT
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Predictability No magic required
Julia WesterImprovement Coach & Team Manager
EverydayKanban.com@[email protected]
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Adjective
Expected, especially on the basis of previous or known behavior
[good or bad!]
Predictable[pri-dik-tuh-buh l]
@everydaykanban
USUALLYGREAT!USUALLY
HORRIBLE!USUALLY________!
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@everydaykanban
How many telephone lines are needed to avoid blocked calls given Random arrivals Random durations
Pulling answers from randomness
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@everydaykanban
The mathematical study of waiting lines, or queues.
Can quantify relationships between queue size, capacity utilization and cycle times
Queueing Theory was the solution
capacity utilization (rho)
Queue size (N)
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@everydaykanban
TODAY’S TALK Why queues matter Choices we can make about
queues Monitoring your predictability
indicators
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@everydaykanban
Why Queues Matter
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@everydaykanban
Queues are the waiting work in a system
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@everydaykanban
Mo’ queue, Mo’ problems Longer average
cycle times Wider range of
cycle times More mgmt
overhead Reduced
motivation & quality
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@everydaykanban
Our workflows are chains of queues
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@everydaykanban
As interpreted by Don Reinertsen
Aesop’s Fable:
The Tortoise and the Hare
Finish
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Predictability ≠ fastestUNLESS
you can consistently be that fast.
To become more predictable…USUALLY
DONE IN 2 to 200 DAYS!
@everydaykanban
USUALLYDONE IN 25 to 35 DAYS! reduce the range of
probable outcomes.
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@everydaykanban
Choices we can make about queues
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@everydaykanban
Choice: Use a push system or pull system?1 queue per server
1 queue multiple servers
PullSystem
PushSystem
Which one do you use?
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@everydaykanban
normal
stopped
Slower, but consistentWide variation
PullSystem
PushSystem
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@everydaykanban
Choice: What factors used to prioritize?
Your policy here!
FIFO/S PRIORITY
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@everydaykanban
FIFO
Non-FIFO
Wider variation
Less variation.Feasible?
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@everydaykanban
Choice: Deliver large or small batches?Once a month
Once a week
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Once a weekOnce a month
@everydaykanban
Wider variation Less
variation
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@everydaykanban
Monitoring your predictability indicators
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@everydaykanban
Cycle time ranges: Lagging indicatorNovOctoberSeptemberAugustJuly
Good clustering
Can we reduce the outliers?
95%: 45 days or less
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@everydaykanban
Queue size: a leading indicator
Which lane is going faster?
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@everydaykanban
CFD: Demonstrates the relationshipWork units
Time
Queue sizeCycle Time
To Do
Design
Create
Verify
Deliver
18
10
1.5
2.5
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@everydaykanban
Queue Size: predicting predictability issues
Bigger queues lead to longer cycle times, less predictability
Smaller queues lead to shorter cycle times, more predictability
Work-In-Process (hidden queues?)
Queued work
9
20
10
2
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@everydaykanban
• Remember, you have control over predictability! • Get baseline measures of queue size/cycle
times.• Make informed choices about handling queues.• Monitor queues to anticipate and correct issues
before they negatively impact cycle times.
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@everydaykanban
References and Inspiration
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www.leankit.com
To receive a copy of:
• The slide deck for today’s presentation
• LeanKit’s 1st Annual Lean Business report
Send an email to: [email protected]: DOES16