heritage, heritage tourism and climate change

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Heritage, Heritage Tourism and Climate Change

Journal: Journal of Heritage Tourism

Manuscript ID: Draft

Manuscript Type: Special Issue Paper

Keywords: cultural heritage, heritage tourism, climate change, natural heritage, emissions, IPCC

Abstract:

Climate change is increasingly recognised as a major threat to the sustainability of tourism, including heritage tourism. Yet despite growth in literature on climate change and heritage there is little specific literature on the relationship between climate change and heritage tourism. The paper introduces a special issue on heritage tourism and climate change. It briefly outlines the future challenges of climate change before commenting on tourism’s role in climate change and the challenge of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Using UNWTO tourism estimates a tentative figure of half of all emissions of tourism could be ascribed to heritage related tourism.

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Climate change is increasingly recognised as a major threat to the sustainability of

tourism, including heritage tourism. Yet despite growth in literature on climate change

and heritage there is little specific literature on the relationship between climate change

and heritage tourism. The paper introduces a special issue on heritage tourism and

climate change. It briefly outlines the future challenges of climate change before

commenting on tourism’s role in climate change and the challenge of reducing

greenhouse gas emissions. Using UNWTO tourism estimates a tentative figure of half of

all emissions of tourism could be ascribed to heritage related tourism.

Keywords: heritage tourism, climate change, cultural heritage, natural heritage,

emissions, IPCC


Climate change is increasingly recognised as a major threat to the sustainability of

tourism (Scott, 2011; Scott, Hall & Gössling, 2012). However, despite concerns over the

impact of climate change on heritage (Cassar, 2005; McIntyre-Tamwoy, 2008;

Brimblecombe, Grossi & Harris, 2011; Howard, 2013; Brimblecombe, 2014; Maus, 2014;

Perry, 2015; Phillips, 2015; Hall, Baird, James & Ram, 2016), there has been a surprising

dearth of literature on the interrelationships between climate change and heritage

tourism, and cultural heritage in particular.

Climate is generally defined as the weather averaged over a period of time, and

effectively represents the conditions one would anticipate experiencing at a specific

destination and time (IPCC, 2013a). Climate change is defined by the United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which is the lead international

forum for developing an international response to climate change, as ‘a change of

climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the

composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate

variability observed over comparable time periods’ (UNFCC, 1992, Article 1).

This special issue of the Journal of Heritage Tourism seeks to contribute to the

development of a critical mass of work with respect to how climate change may affect

heritage tourism as well as how heritage tourism may provide an opportunity to both

respond to and interpret the implications of climate change. This paper provides a brief

overview of the climate change and tourism relationship before outlining the contents of

this special issue.

Climate Change and the 2013 IPCC Assessment

The reality of climate change is no longer open to scientific dispute (Hall et al., 2015).

The most recent IPCC report on the physical science of climate change concluded in its

summary for policy makers ‘Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since

the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia.

The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished,

sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased’ (IPCC,

2013a, p.2). The IPCC go on to emphasise ‘Human influence on the climate system is

clear. This is evident from the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the

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atmosphere, positive radiative forcing, observed warming, and understanding of the

climate system’ (IPCC, 2013a, p.13).

In addition to assessing recent climate change the IPCC use a number of models to

project changes in the climate system. These are important not only because of their

assessment of potential environmental, economic, societal and political futures but also

because they act as important drivers for international climate change negotiations, and

therefore directly and indirectly influence the actions of industry, governments and

communities, including with respect to tourism. Table 1 indicates some of the key

findings of the IPCC (2013a, 2013b) with respect to future global and regional climate

change. (For a further analysis of the implications of the most recent IPCC assessment

for tourism see Scott, Hall and Gössling (2016), while Hall and Ram (2016) indicate the

position of heritage within the IPCC reports).

<INSERT TABLE 1 ABOUT HERE>

Tourism and Climate Change

The impacts and science of climate change presents a number of significant challenges

for tourism with respect to its effects on destinations, infrastructure and resources,

generating regions, competitiveness and tourist flows and behaviours as well as

adaptation and mitigation (Gössling & Hall, 2006a; Hall, 2010c; Scott & Becken, 2011;

Scott, Hall & Gössling, 2012; Gössling, Scott & Hall, 2013; Scott, Steiger, Rutty & Johnson,

2014). There is a growing awareness of tourism impacts and the tensions that may exist

in attempting to balance economic development with social and environmental goals

(Scott, Hall & Gössling, 2012; Gössling Scott & Hall, 2013; Haanpää, Juhola & Landauer,

2014). Undoubtedly, the relationship between tourism and climate change reflects some

of the issues faced by other industries and economic sectors (Parry et al., 2007).

However, tourism also has specific characteristics and peculiarities that demand its own

mitigation and adaptation response (Scott, Hall & Gössling, 2012; Scott, Gössling & Hall,

2012; Kaján & Saarinen, 2013; Scott, Gössling, Hall & Peeters, 2016). These include

tourism’s significant role in less developed countries (Hall, 2007; Gössling, Peeters &

Scott, 2008; Gössling, Hall & Scott 2009; Moore, 2010; Pentelow & Scott, 2011) and

biodiversity conservation (Hall, 2010a; Hall, Scott & Gössling, 2011; Zeppell, 2012), as

well as the role of climate, environment, risk and security in influencing tourist travel

patterns (Gössling & Hall, 2006b; Hall, 2010b, 2013; Gössling et al., 2012).

As with other economic sectors tourism therefore both contributes to and is affected by

climate change. However, tourism is often regarded as being among the more

vulnerable sectors because of its dependence on the environment as a factor in the

attractiveness of destinations, although the long term effects of climate change on

tourist decision-making is relatively unknown given the adaptive capacity of tourists

(Gössling, Scott, Hall, Ceron & Dubois, 2012), while there are also significant regional

and sub-sectoral knowledge gaps (Hall, 2008; Scott, Hall & Gössling, 2016).

Tourism and travel contribute to climate change through emissions of greenhouse gases

(GHGs), including in particular CO2, as well as methane (CH4), nitrous oxides (NOx),

hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6).

There are also various short-lived GHGs that are important in the context of aviation

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(Lee et al., 2009). Because tourism is not recognised within existing industrial

classification schemes, estimating tourism-related emissions is requires the integration

of information on the range of components that comprise the tourism system. Tourism

transport, accommodation and activities are estimated by independent assessments for

the UNWTO-UNEP-WMO (2008) and World Economic Forum (WEF) (2009) to

contribute approximately five per cent to global anthropogenic emissions of CO2 in the

year 2005. Most CO2 emissions are associated with transport, with aviation accounting

for 40% of tourism’s overall carbon footprint, followed by car transport (32%) and

accommodation (21%) (UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008). Cruise ships, with an estimated

19.2 Mt CO2, account for approximately 1.5% of global tourism emissions (Eijgelaar,

Thaper & Peeters, 2010). However, and very importantly, the UNWTO-UNEP-WMO

(2008) and WEF (2009) assessments of tourism’s contribution to climate change do not

include the impact of non-CO2 short-lived GHGs. A more accurate assessment of

tourism’s contribution to global warming should include the influence of radiative

forcing (RF) (IPCC, 2013b). Given the range of uncertainty with respect to RF, especially

for aviation emissions, Scott, Peeters and Gössling (2010) estimated that tourism

contributed between 5.2% to 12.5% of all anthropogenic forcing in 2005, with a best

estimate of approximately eight per cent (Gössling, Scott & Hall, 2013). In addition, a

more complete analysis would also have to include food and beverage (Gössling & Hall,

2013), infrastructure construction and maintenance, as well as tourist retail and

services; all of these ideally including a lifecycle perspective accounting for the energy

embodied in the goods and services consumed in tourism (Gössling, 2010, 2013;

Gössling, Scott & Hall, 2013).

The exact proportion of global tourism that can be attributed to heritage tourism is

unknown. However, the UNWTO (2004) have claimed that cultural tourism accounts for

between 35 and 40 per cent of all tourism worldwide and that it is growing much faster

than the rate of growth for general tourism (Failte Ireland, 2006). Although such

estimates are difficult to validate, it does nevertheless point to the significant

contribution that cultural heritage tourism makes to tourism GHG emissions, a figure

that would go significantly higher if natural heritage tourism, which would include

national park and protected area visitation and much ecotourism (Frost & Hall, 2009),

were also to be included in heritage tourism’s contribution (Hall, 2010a), then the figure

could approach half of all tourism if using UNWTO estimates.

The challenge of managing tourism’s future emissions development is enormous given

forecast growth (Hall, 2015). Emissions from tourism will grow because of several

trends, including the growing number of people travelling, increasing frequency of trips,

as well as growth in the average length of trips made, and the growing energy intensity

of the transport modes used, with most of the growth occurring in air travel (Peeters &

Landré, 2011; Scott, Hall & Gössling, 2012; Gössling, Scott & Hall, 2013; Peeters &

Bongaerts, 2015). For example, the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2009) suggests

that air travel will almost quadruple between 2005-2050, with a tripling of energy use

and emissions. Even if the per capita per trip contribution of tourists to GHG emissions

continues to fall as a result of increased efficiencies from technological and management

innovations, as suggested by the UNWTO, WEF, WTTC and IATA, the absolute

contribution will continue to grow as a result of tourism mobility increasing at a faster

rate than efficiency gains (Gössling, Hall, Peeters & Scott, 2010; Hall, 2010c).

Furthermore, there is little consideration of the implications of rebound effects in

forecasts of tourism’s future emissions, even though they could potentially means that

by 2030 the impacts of energy-efficiencies on emissions reduction are potentially be

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more than halved and that the reduction in the potential gains in energy efficiencies

over the period to 2035 are cut by more than 35% (Hall, Scott & Gössling, 2013).

Based on a business-as-usual scenario for 2035, which considers changes in travel

frequency, length of stay, travel distance and technological efficiency gains, UNWTO-

UNEP-WMO (2008) calculate that CO2 emissions from tourism may grow considerably

by 2035. The scenario shows that emissions will increase by about 135 per cent

compared with 2005 (UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008), reaching 3059 Mt CO2 by 2035.

These estimates can be compared with a projection for emission growth by the World

Economic Forum (WEF, 2009), which estimates that CO2 emissions from tourism

(excluding aviation) will grow at 2.5% per year until 2035, and emissions from aviation

at 2.7%, which suggests emissions of 3164 Mt CO2 by 2035 (Table 2) (Gössling, Scott &

Hall, 2013).

<INSERT TABLE 2 ABOUT HERE>

Any systematic approach to mitigation needs to be based on a review of emission

intensities (Scott, Hall & Gössling, 2012), meaning an assessment of where emissions

occur as well as an identification of where further growth occurs, possibly in

combination with an evaluation of the underlying reasons for this growth (Scott, Hall, &

Gössling, 2016). This is a significant issue as Scott, Peeters and Gössling (2010) calculate

that even if emissions increases from accommodation and all transport except aviation

fell to zero, overall emissions would still increase, given the strong growth in air travel.

Similarly, out of 26 mitigation scenarios developed by UNWTO-UNEP-WMO (2008), only

one yields absolute emission reductions. This is a scenario combining high energy-

efficiency gains with considerable modal shifts, changes in the choice of destinations,

and increases in average length of stay. The results indicate that only strong pressure on

the subsectors to become more energy efficient via, for example, new forms of carbon

governance, combined with behavioural and structural change in tourism consumption

with respect to where and how people travel, will lead to absolute reductions in

emissions (Gössling, Scott & Hall, 2013; Hall, 2013). Interestingly, Scott, Gössling, Hall

and Peeters’ (2016) suggest that investment in emissions abatement within the tourism

sector combined with strategic external carbon offsets is far more cost effective over

2015-2050 than exclusive reliance on offsetting. They argue that the cost to achieve the -

50% target in GHG emissions through abatement and strategic offsetting, while

significant, represents less than 0.1% of the total estimated global tourism economy in

2020 and only 2.0% in 2050. As they point out, such costs, if distributed equally among

international tourists, are equivalent to many current departure taxes and baggage fees,

and would seem to be a low price to pay for the potential benefits, including with

respect to the conservation of heritage.

Conclusion

The papers in this special issue provide a number of perspectives on the

interrelationships between heritage tourism and climate change. The first paper by Hall,

Baird, James and Ram (2016) provides a review of some of the main themes with

respect to climate change and the conservation of cultural heritage, especially built

heritage, cultural landscapes and heritage management responses. Issues of built

heritage are also examined by Coles, Dinan and Warren (2016) in examining the

adaptation responses of accommodation providers in historic properties in the UK.

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The impact of climate change on heritage can also be used as a means to both reflect on

the nature of heritage but also to interpret anthropogenic change. Mimisbrunnr Climate

Park in Norway provides a case of the development of such climate consciousness

(Vistad, Wold, Daugstad & Haukeland, 2016), while Picken (2016) examines such issues

in a marine context and Powell, Ramshaw, Ogletree and Krafte in the Antarctic tourism

experience. Fernandes (2016) examines the direct impact of increased high-magnitude

weather events on the built heritage of Madiera Island and its associated effects on

tourism while the final paper of the special issue by Hall and Ram (2016) looks at the

place of heritage in the IPCC reports since the early 1990s to the present day.

This brief introduction has highlighted some of the most significant dimensions of

climate change at a global level. It has also emphasised that tourism is both affected by

and contributes to climate change and that heritage tourism is not only affected by such

change but, given its role within tourism, also contributes to climate change especially

given the contribution of transport to emissions in getting to and from heritage sites.

Nevertheless, the papers in this special issue suggest that not only is it possible to

develop strategies to help protect heritage from climate change but that heritage

tourism may be a significant means to further develop climate change awareness. The

major challenge will come in converting that awareness to action on climate change and

the willingness to contribute further to the costs of heritage conservation and protecting

the resources that tourists come to see.

Acknowledgements

The contribution of the anonymous referees to the success of this special issue is

gratefully acknowledged.

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Table 1: Key findings of the IPCC (2013) with respect to future global and regional

climate change

• Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and

changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will

require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.

• Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely1 to

exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850 to 1900 for all Representative Concentration

Pathways (RCP)2 scenarios except RCP2.6. It is likely to exceed 2°C for RCP6.0

and RCP8.5, and more likely than not to exceed 2°C for RCP4.5. Warming will

continue beyond 2100 under all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. Warming will

continue to exhibit interannual-to-decadal variability and will not be regionally

uniform.

• Changes in the global water cycle in response to the warming over the 21st

century will not be uniform. The contrast in precipitation between wet and dry

regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase, although there may be

regional exceptions.

• The global ocean will continue to warm during the 21st century. Heat will

penetrate from the surface to the deep ocean and affect ocean circulation

• It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin and

that Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover will decrease during the 21st

century as global mean surface temperature rises. Global glacier volume will

further decrease.

• Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century… Under all

RCP scenarios, the rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed that observed

during 1971 to 2010 due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass

from glaciers and ice sheets.

• Climate change will affect carbon cycle processes in a way that will exacerbate

the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere (high confidence). Further uptake of carbon

by the ocean will increase ocean acidification.

• Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by

the late 21st century and beyond… Most aspects of climate change will persist for

many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped. This represents a

substantial multi-century climate change commitment created by past, present

and future emissions of CO2

1 The IPCC use a level of confidence to characterize uncertainty as to the correctness of an

analysis or a statement:

• high confidence about 8 out of 10 chance;

Likelihood refers to a probabilistic assessment of some well defined outcome

having occurred or occurring in the future:

• very likely >90 % probability;

• likely > 66 % probability;

• about as likely as not 33–66 % probability;

2. A set of scenarios of anthropogenic contributions to the climate system which was used for

climate model simulations carried out for the IPCC under the framework of the World Climate Research Programme.

Source: IPCC, 2007a; 2013a

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Table 2: Tourism Sector Emissions and Mitigation Targets

Year

Emission Estimates and

BAU Projections (CO2)

Mitigation Targets

UNWTO-

UNEP-WMO

(2008)

WEF

(2009)

WTTC

(2009)*

5% allocation of CO2 emissions

from a ‘below +2°C scenario’ to

tourism sector **

2005 1.304 Gt 1.476 Gt -

2020 2.181 Gt 2.319 Gt 0.978 Gt 1.254 Gt

2035 3.059 Gt 3.164 Gt 0.652 Gt 0.940 Gt

* - WTTC (2009) aspirational emission reduction targets are -25% in 2020 and -50% in

2035 (both from 2005 levels specified in UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008)

** Pathway that limits global average temperature increase to below 2°C; assuming CO2

continues to representing approximately 57% (IPCC, 2007b) of the median estimate of

44 Gt CO2-e total GHG emissions in 2020 and 2035 (Rogelj, 2011) and the tourism sector

continues to represent approximately 5% of global CO2 emissions (UNWTO-UNEP-WMO,

2008; WEF, 2009) over the same time frame (Gössling, Scott & Hall, 2013).

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Table 1: Key findings of the IPCC (2013) with respect to future global and regional

climate change

• Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and

changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will

require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.

• Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely1 to

exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850 to 1900 for all Representative Concentration

Pathways (RCP)2 scenarios except RCP2.6. It is likely to exceed 2°C for RCP6.0

and RCP8.5, and more likely than not to exceed 2°C for RCP4.5. Warming will

continue beyond 2100 under all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. Warming will

continue to exhibit interannual-to-decadal variability and will not be regionally

uniform.

• Changes in the global water cycle in response to the warming over the 21st

century will not be uniform. The contrast in precipitation between wet and dry

regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase, although there may be

regional exceptions.

• The global ocean will continue to warm during the 21st century. Heat will

penetrate from the surface to the deep ocean and affect ocean circulation

• It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin and

that Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover will decrease during the 21st

century as global mean surface temperature rises. Global glacier volume will

further decrease.

• Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century… Under all

RCP scenarios, the rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed that observed

during 1971 to 2010 due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass

from glaciers and ice sheets.

• Climate change will affect carbon cycle processes in a way that will exacerbate

the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere (high confidence). Further uptake of carbon

by the ocean will increase ocean acidification.

• Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by

the late 21st century and beyond… Most aspects of climate change will persist for

many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped. This represents a

substantial multi-century climate change commitment created by past, present

and future emissions of CO2

1 The IPCC use a level of confidence to characterize uncertainty as to the correctness of an

analysis or a statement:

• high confidence about 8 out of 10 chance;

Likelihood refers to a probabilistic assessment of some well defined outcome

having occurred or occurring in the future:

• very likely >90 % probability;

• likely > 66 % probability;

• about as likely as not 33–66 % probability;

2. A set of scenarios of anthropogenic contributions to the climate system which was used for

climate model simulations carried out for the IPCC under the framework of the World Climate

Research Programme.

Source: IPCC, 2007a; 2013a

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For Peer Review

Table 2: Tourism Sector Emissions and Mitigation Targets

Year

Emission Estimates and

BAU Projections (CO2)

Mitigation Targets

UNWTO-

UNEP-WMO

(2008)

WEF

(2009)

WTTC

(2009)*

5% allocation of CO2 emissions

from a ‘below +2°C scenario’ to

tourism sector **

2005 1.304 Gt 1.476 Gt -

2020 2.181 Gt 2.319 Gt 0.978 Gt 1.254 Gt

2035 3.059 Gt 3.164 Gt 0.652 Gt 0.940 Gt

* - WTTC (2009) aspirational emission reduction targets are -25% in 2020 and -50% in

2035 (both from 2005 levels specified in UNWTO-UNEP-WMO 2008)

** Pathway that limits global average temperature increase to below 2°C; assuming CO2

continues to representing approximately 57% (IPCC, 2007b) of the median estimate of

44 Gt CO2-e total GHG [Gigatons CO2 equivalent] emissions in 2020 and 2035 (Rogelj,

2011) and the tourism sector continues to represent approximately 5% of global CO2

emissions (UNWTO-UNEP-WMO, 2008; WEF, 2009) over the same time frame (Gössling,

Scott & Hall, 2013).

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heritage, heritage tourism and climate change

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