disrupted futures - aascif
TRANSCRIPT
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Wikipedia
Rohit Talwar
CEO - Fast Future
Staying Ahead in a World of Disruption
AASCIF CEO, Law and National Issues Conference
Washington DC – 19th April 2018
Disrupted Futures Implications of Transformative Change for Workers’ Compensation Insurance
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Rachel Lawston
Contents
Presentation p 4
About Fast Future p 129
Slide Sources p 148
What We Do• Publishing - books about the future
• Research - tailored programmes and studies
• Consultancy – strategy reviews, deep dives and capability development to build exponential
organisations
• Inspiration – speaking and leadership events
• Education - future focused leadership development and executive coaching
A More Complex, Multi-Faceted, Disrupted World
[email protected] @fastfuture Image:Dustin Yellin
Globalisation of:
• Markets
• Money
• Technology
• Access
• Information
• Knowledge
• Opportunity
• Ideas
• Speed
• Risk
Internet Evolution = Inevitable Disruption
[email protected] @fastfuture Images: Simplilearn / istockphoto / cuded / silicon.fr
Financial Services and the Next Economy -
An Assumed or Earned Role?
Why:
• Do I need you?
• Are you the only ones allowed to do what you do?
• Do you do things the way you do?
• Do you charge what you do?
• Can’t we simply bypass you?
• Shouldn’t I try to innovate and disrupt you?
• Don’t you want me to ask these questions?
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Julien Pacaud
[email protected] @fastfuture Images: Monzo
Mindset Shift From ‘What a Brand Wants to do’ to ‘What a Customer Really Wants at a Fair Price’
We Need to Acknowledge that we Have Both Emotional
and Rational Responses to the Future
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Nouman Ali Khan
‘Future Proofed’ Organisations Work on 3
Horizons in Parallel
4-10+ Years
Understand
Future Drivers
[email protected] @fastfuture Images: Cberry / Information Age / Kgwings
Build Mindset, Talent, Agility and Innovation Culture
1-3 Years
Search for
Growth
1-12 Months
Operational
Excellence
How Well do our Assumptions Serve us?
[email protected] @fastfuture Images: Angeles Santos Torroella / Rafal Olbinski
The Mind Trap - Just Because I Think it…
• It doesn’t mean it’s true
• It doesn’t mean I have to
believe it
• It may not be my / the
best thought
• It may not be valid for
very long
[email protected] @fastfuture Images: dramaaroundtheglobe / Amsterdam Street Art
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: TheDigitalArtist
Megatrends and Impacts
1. When Two Worlds Collide
2. Uncertainty – Control vs. Emergence
3. Evolving Economic Architectures
4. Social and Demographic Shifts
5. New Urban Infrastructure
6. Sustainable Consumption and Production
7. Energy and Environment Convergence
8. Societal System Redesign
9. Lifestyle Solutions
10. Exponential and Disruptive
11. Universal Science and Technology
The World’s Biggest Banks / Everything?
[email protected] @fastfuture Images: Softpanorama / Times of India
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Matt Herring
2. Uncertainty – Control vs. Emergence
• Political Shifts
• Permanent Economic Instability
• Speed of Technological Change /
Evolution of AI and Robotics
• Clouded Future of Work and Jobs
• New Security / Threat Landscape
• Customer Empowerment
• Trust / Alternative Facts
[email protected] @fastfuture Image:pixel2013
The New Landscape – Old Order
• Power Resides in Beijing, Brussels,
Washington
• Reduction in US Overseas Commitments
• Japan / Korea – Independent but US-
Aligned(ish) Foreign Policy
• Newly Assertive and Ambitious EU Post-Brexit
• Britain Mired in Brexit-Land for a Decade
• Russia Redefining its Role
• UN / Security Council in Decline
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: ejaugsburg
The New Landscape – New Order
• Rise of ASEAN, AU, MERCOSUR, and SCO
• Growth in China’s Global Influence
• India – Focused on South Asia, Middle East,
Indian Ocean
• Country Protectorates and Mergers e.g.
South Africa / Zimbabwe
• Growing Regional Power Roles for Brazil,
Indonesia, S. Africa, Nigeria, Turkey, Iran,
Saudi Arabia, and Egypt
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: StockSnap
Clashing Ideas and IdentitiesPolitics, Religion, Values, Economic Interests, Ethnicity, Gender, and Lifestyle
• Populism vs Liberalism
• Patriarchy vs. Women’s Equality - #metoo,
#timesup #gunreform
• Religion vs. State
• Libertarian vs. Interventionist
• Material vs. Spiritual
• Nation vs. Community (E.g. Facebook)
• Historic Roles vs. Gender Fluidity
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: ParentRap
Conflict
• Conflicts Rising - Inter- and Intra-State
• Perception of Increased Terror Threat
• National Political and Economic Ambitions
Enacted Through Cyberspace
• Multiple Actors
• Instability of Weak and Failing States
• Spread of Lethal, Low Cost, Disruptive,
Precision Technologies (Cyber and Physical)
Conflict Spheres
• South China Sea
• North Korea
• Middle East Proxy Conflicts and Qatar /
Iran / Turkey vs. Saudi and the GCC
• Artificial Intelligence / Technology Ethics
• Space / Asteroid Mining
• New Weapons Systems e.g. Unmanned
• Policing Rogue States
• Cyberwarfare and Internet Governance
• Arctic Ocean / Antarctic Resources
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: vborodinova
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: SarahRichterArt
Governance Challenges
• Societal Expectations – Employment, Wealth,
Services, Access, Security, Sovereignty, Trust,
Transparency, Fairness
• Secular vs. Religious Underpinning
• Corruption / Cronyism
• Electronic Manipulation / Fake News
• Multiple Actors in the Public Domain (Parties,
NGOs, Firms, Individuals, Action Groups)
• ST Tactical Goals vs. LT Strategic Focus
• Competitiveness / Stability of Public Finances
• Followers vs. Leader Nations
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Gerd Altmann
3. Evolving Economic Architectures
• Industry 4.0 – Technology Driving Sector
Convergence
• “ChIndia” Dominate Developing Nations
• Fragile Two-way Globalization
• From “Gig” to “Machine” Economy
• Bricks and Clicks
• New Business Models
• Digital Currencies / ICOs
• Scarcity vs. Abundance
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Alterans
Agent / Broker Challenges and Priorities
[email protected] @fastfuture Image:Dustin Yellin
Relationships
Unlocking Value in Data
Distribution / Access
Retention
Direct-to-Customer
Digital Business Models /
Commoditization
Innovation and Simplicity
Product and Process
Talent / Digital Mindsets
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Interactive Schools
Adoption Speed is the New MantraEnabled by Credibility, Reach, Buzz, Capability, Constant Innovation
Blockchain Networks, Cryptocurrencies /
Initial Coin Offerings
[email protected] @fastfuture Images: cvkcvk / Allcrypto
China – Seeking a New Economic Growth Engine
19th National Congress Report: New Era Socialism: Apply “New Vision Of
Development”, “Modernized Economy”, and “A Country of Innovators.”
[email protected] @fastfuture Images: CGTN / Newsguards
An Age of Scarcity or Abundance? The US$78-120 Trillion Opportunity - Star Wars Vs. Star Trek Thinking
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Telegraph
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: geralt
4. Social and Demographic Shifts
• Individual Ownership of Health,
Wellness and Wellbeing vs. Stress
• Digitization of Life / Rise of
Behavioural Economics
• Ageing Societies
• Generational Expectations
• Evolving Family Structures
• Migration Pressures
• Gender / Identity Fluidity
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: janeb13
Migration – Brexit, Trump, Failing States, Internal
Flows, Interstate Conflict, Climate Change
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: World Economic Forum
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: World Economic Forum
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Rand Europe
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Shabinh
5. New Urban Infrastructure
• Accelerating Urbanization – 4.9Bn by 2030 /
72% by 2050
• Smart / Eco-Cities
• Sustainable / Adaptable Infrastructure
• Intelligent Transport
• Sharing Economy
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: johnhain
6. Sustainable Consumption and Production
• Circular Economy
• Food Sustainability
• Innovating to Zero (Waste /
Emissions / Footprint)
• Smart Goods
• Localized Production
• De-Industrialization
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: eliasch777
7. Energy and Environment Convergence
• By 2030 - Energy Demand up ~50%,
Water 40%, and Food 35%
• Rise of Alternative / Renewable
Generation, Distribution, and Storage
• New Exploration & Recovery Focus -
Including Fracking / Methane Hydrates
• Investment in Geo-Engineering,
Climate and Environmental Protection,
Disaster Recovery, and Remediation
• Focus on Preservation of Natural
Resources and Biodiversity
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: himanshugunarathna
Catastrophic Environmental Risks
• Climate Change, Extreme Weather, Sea-level
Rise and Acidification, Glacial Melt
• Pollution, Clean Water, and Soil Stress
• Resource and Food Insecurity
• Infectious Diseases Spread through Greater
Travel, Poor Health Infrastructure, or
Deliberate Release
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: pixel2013
8. Societal System Redesign
• Quest for Systemic Resilience
• Education Transformation
• Individual Health and Health Systems
Under Pressure
• Personalised / Digitised Healthcare
• Universal Basic Income and Services?
• Government Service Innovation
• Access to / Costs of Justice
• Clean Water and Sanitation
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: szfphy
9. Lifestyle Solutions
• Attention / StoryMaking Economy –
Personalization, Experience,
Participation, Multi-Sensory Content
• Pursuit of Experience
• Location Services
• Contextual Technology
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: typographyimages
10. Exponential & Disruptive – Progress & Pain
• Science and Technology Progress vs
Economic Absorption Capability
• Infrastructure / Mobility– e.g.
Hyperloop / Autonomous Cars
• Business Models – Uber, AirBnB
• Government – Dubai 10X Projects
• Biotech – Medical Advances and
Moral / Ethical Challenges
Nanotechnology /
Atomically Precise
Manufacturing
3D / 4D
PrintingNew Computing
Architectures
Hyperconnected
Internet of
Humanity
Immersive /
Mixed Reality
Living (VR/AR)
Food Chain
Transformation
Energy
Innovation
Robotics /
Drones
Brain
Uploading
A Possibility Explosion from
Universally Available
Exponential
Science and Technology
DevelopmentsBlockchain
and
Cryptocurrency
Healthcare
Transformation
Artificial
Intelligence /
Conscious
Technology
Synthetic
BiologyHuman
Augmentation
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: TheDigitalArtist
Exponential Humanity?
Human Enhancement / Transhumanism• Radical Life Extension
• Cryogenics
• Nootropics
• Bio-engineering
• Genetic Modification
• 3D Printed Limbs
• Brain-Computer Interfaces
IT - Eventually Everything Computes?
Physical - Data - Sensors - Computers
[email protected] @fastfuture Images: Entrepreneur / Science 2.0
The Fourth Industrial Revolution
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Coindevil
AI (Machine/Deep Learning,
Natural Language Processing)
Internet of Things (IoT)
Robotics
Blockchain
3D / 4D Printing
Social / Mobile / Cloud
Augmented/Virtual Reality
Autonomous Cars
5G Networks
Quantum Computing
Virtual Personal Assistants
Wireless Power
Mechanisation /
Water Power
Mass
Production
Computerisation /
Automation
Cyber-
Physical
Systems
Artificial Intelligence
Why all the Fuss?
Artificial intelligence (AI) is an area of
computer science that emphasizes the
creation of intelligent machines that
work and react like humans. E.g.
Speech recognition, visual perception,
learning, reasoning, inference,
strategising, planning, intuition,
decision-making, and language
translation.
Better AI Algorithms,
Big Data, Cloud,
Hardware Capability,
Massive [email protected] @fastfuture Image: Staticworld
1. Expert / Rules-Based Systems / Robotic Process Automation
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Gerd Altman
3. Context Awareness and Retention
E.G. Chatbots and Robo-Advisors
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: wealth-hack
• RBS Luvo
• Swedbank
Nina
• Mizuho
Pepper
• Future
Advisor
• Betterment
• 8Now
• Wahed
‘Smart Machines’ will be Central to our ExistenceAccess to Our Data May be Strictly Controlled
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Stephan Keller
Organizations,
Workplaces,
and Nations as
Constantly
Evolving App Ecosystems
Individuals
Existing
Within an AI
App Cocoon
and Protected
by Intelligent Agents
Real-time, continuously adaptive product personalization
Voyage / The Villages Florida Driverless Taxi Pilot
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Voyage
The Villages:
• 51 square KM
• 54,000 homes
• 125,000 residents
AI Will Enable New Business ConceptsE.g. Self-Owning, Self-Insuring, Self-Repairing Autonomous Vehicles
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Fast Company
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: kellepics
What’s Next: Now to 2020
• Real Time Translation
• Smart Machines, Sensors, Objects
• Self-Editing Software
• Fully Automated Smart
Corporations (Decentralized
Autonomous Organizations)
• AI Adopted by all FS Firms
• Intelligent Agents Manage Our
Lives / Guard Our Data
• Swarm Robotics
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Gerd Altmann
What’s Next: 2021 to 2025
• 70-90% of Customer Interactions
Managed by AI
• FS Product Development
Increasingly Done / Tested by AI
• Crowd Defined and Designed FS
Products
• AI Deployed Across all of
Government / Courts
• Autonomous Vehicles Everywhere
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Funky Focus
What’s Next: 2026 to 2035
• Globally Approved Crypto Tokens
• Fully Autonomous DAO Banks
• AI Penetrates all Sectors
• Artificial Animal and Ecosystem Intelligence
• Self-Aware / Self-Replicating Software
Systems and Robots
• Artificial General Intelligence?
• Artificial Superintelligence??
• The Singularity????
“Phygital” Players Shaking up the Old OrderE.g. Tesla Model S Outsells BMW 7 Series / Mercedes S Class
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Tesla
[email protected] @fastfuture Source: Telegraph
Integrated Solutions for Rapid Build E.g. Broad Group China: 57 Storeys – 19 Days
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Local Motors
3D Printing in Micro FactoriesE.g. Local Motors - 50 Components, 2500 Cars Per Micro Factory
Transforming Telcos - Choices and PrioritiesFocus - Digital Business Models & Services, Improving Customer Experience, Cost & Business Efficiency
Pipes and
Infrastructure
Platforms and Services Investment,
Venturing and
Incubation
Direct Offerings
E.g. FinTech
Digital Retail Futures
Mobile First / Only
Robo-Retail
[email protected] @fastfuture Images: Net-a-Porter / Simon Wild / Hointer / Devil Wears Prada
Humanity at a Price
Work 2.0 – The Healthier WorkplacePersonalized Ergonomics, Light, Sound, Temperature, Air Quality
[email protected] @fastfuture Images: Hok / Stance
Safer Workplaces - the End of Worker’s Comp Insurance?
A World of “Perfect Information”?Internet of Everything – 100Bn Devices / 1Tn Sensors / $19Tn Impact
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Durmet Smartress
[email protected] @fastfuture Images: Myki / Three Square Market /Ben Goosens / FlowLight / Getty
The Identity Tracking Thing
[email protected] @fastfuture Images: Eyehand / Bioteq
Wearables and Implantables
Monitoring Efficiency vs. Privacy
Shift from Physical to Mental Impairment
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Shawn Cross
Workplace Stress – Annual Impacts:
• 120,000 Deaths
• 2 million workplace violence incidents
• US$51Bn Absenteeism
• US $26Bn Direct treatment cost
• US$300Bn Employer Costs
• US$2.5Tn Depression / Anxiety
globally – US$3Tn by 2030
The Gig Economy and Worker StatusLegal Confusion e.g. Postmates (Washington State) vs. Grubhub (California)
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Intuit / Emergent Research
Digital Coaches and Therapists E.g. Remente / AffecTech
[email protected] @fastfuture Images: Remente / AffecTech
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: FinTech Global
Sector Disruption is Underway
Global FinTech Investment (US$)
RegTech – Clearing out Cobwebs$1.04Bn Invested in 2017
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Deloitte
Telehealth and Telemedicine - The Saviours?E.G. Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and PartnersmHealth “digital pain-reduction kit” – Targeting Opiod Reduction
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Travelers
Total Care AI Startups E.g. Chronwell Triage, On-site Care, Care Coordination, and Personalized Assistance Service
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Chronwell
Instant Life Insurance – E.g. LadderPolicies Range from $100,000 to $8 Million, and from 10 to 30 Years
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Ladder
Instant Accidental Death Insurance E.g. FabricUpgradeable to 20-Year Term Life Policy With Medical Exam
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Fabric
Eliminating Insurance Companies and PeopleThe First Decentralised Autonomous Insurance Organization?
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Teambrella
Halo InsuranceCoverage for Every Aspect of Our Lives in One Constantly Evolving Policy
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Dieterich01
Protection Models
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Alexas_Fotos
Individualized
Usage Based
Portfolio
Off the Shelf
Pooled
In-built
Anticipatory Claims –BlackRaspberrySoda / Fony
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: all free download
[email protected] @fastfuture www.fastfuture.com Image: Enrique Meseguer
3 Horizons Scanning
5-10 Year Scenarios 1-3 Year Strategy
• 12 Months
• 1-3 Years
• 4-10 Years
What Will Help us “Stay Human”?Build Mindsets and Skills to Imagine and Experiment our way to the Future
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: Stephan Keller
• Accelerated
Learning
• Lifewide Learning /
Curiosity
• Self-Awareness
• Self-Management /
Regulation
• Emotional / Cultural
/ Contextual
Sensitivity
• Foresight / Sense
Making
• Tolerance of
Uncertainty
• Problem Solving
• Scenario Thinking /
Systems
Perspective /
Design Thinking
Evolving
Digital
Mindsets and
New World
Literacy
vs.
Information
and Initiative
Overload
[email protected] @fastfuture www.fastfuture.com Image: Julien Pacaud
Deep Dives with Key
Technologies
30-Day Signalling Pilots of
“Quick Wins”
100 Day Experiments: Learn –
Test – Iterate
Game Changer Workshops
[email protected] @fastfuture
Getting Started
Support for Life in the Modern Digital WorkplaceLifelong Support Tools for Displaced Employees
[email protected] @fastfuture Images: eHotelier / Jonny Linder
First they ignore you,
then they laugh at you,
then they fight you,
then you win.
Mahatma Gandhi
[email protected] @fastfuture Image: The Inner Door
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technologies
• http://www.iltanet.org/Downloads/LTFH-Report.pdf
• 200 emerging technology developments
http://www.iltanet.org/Downloads/TechTimelineAppendixLTFH.pdf
Futurium - Science and Technology Transformations Shaping the World of 2050
• European Commission project
• Examined 87 potential developments and trends
• Clustered into 11 overarching future societal
themes
• Content identified through a combination of
crowdsourcing via the Futurium web platform,
suggestions from the EC, and ideas proposed by
our team
• http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium/
Futurium
ACCA / IMA – 100 Drivers of Change
• Identifies 100 drivers of change impacting
business and the accounting profession
• Outlines future scenarios for the accounting
function
• Highlights strategic imperatives for business
and the accounting function
• ‘5 minutes on’ executive summary
• Report: www.accaglobal.co.uk/en/research-
insights/accountancy-futures/drivers-
change.html
Hotels 2020
• Identifying key drivers of change for the
globally branded hotel sector over the
next decade
• Examining the implications for:
➢ Hotel strategy
➢ Brand portfolio
➢ Business models
➢ Customer targeting
➢ Innovation
➢ http://www.amadeus.com/hotelit/beyond-
segmentation.html
Rohit Talwar• Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research.
• Award winning speaker on future insights and strategic innovation –
addressing leadership audiences in 40 countries on 5 continents
• Author of Designing Your Future
• Profiled by UK’s Independent Newspaper as one of the Top 10 Global
Future Thinkers
• Led futures research, scenario planning and strategic consultancy
projects for clients in telecommunications, technology, pharmaceuticals,
banking, travel and tourism, environment, food and government sectors
• Clients include 3M, BBC, BT, BAe, Bayer, Chloride, DTC De Beers, DHL,
EADS, Electrolux, E&Y, GE, Hoover, Hyundai, IBM, ING, Intel, KPMG,
M&S, Nakheel, Nokia, Nomura, Novartis, OECD, Orange, Panasonic,
Pfizer, PwC, Samsung, Shell, Siemens, Symbian, Yell , numerous
international associations and governments agencies in the US, UK,
Finland, Dubai, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Singapore.
• To receive Fast Future’s newsletters please email [email protected]
Videos of Rohit Exploring the Future ➢Artificial Intelligence: What Every CEO Should Be Asking (24 mins)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kUWxgL0UBA
➢A Very Human Future - Humans and Technology in Collaboration (36 mins)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhbSE4BaMck
➢The World in 2025 - Driving Forces, Global Challenges and Potential Disruptions (35 mins)
http://vimeo.com/93302584
➢Anticipating 2025 - Driving forces, global challenges and potential disruptions (30 mins):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwcLQCIfxpY
➢A World in Transition (60 mins): http://www.colliers.com/en-gb/uk/insights/multimedia
➢Future of Travel (22 mins) http://www.travelmole.tv/watch_vdo.php?id=14300
➢Parallel Revolutions Impacting Global Labor: Bloomberg TV Interview (4 mins):
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/parallel-revolutions-impacting-global-labor-talway-
T0tJZRX6TpGIxjKShTzv~w.html
Useful Sources• Genetic profiling - https://www.23andme.com/
• X Prize - Breakthrough innovation projects - http://www.xprize.org/
• Google brain uploading - http://digitaljournal.com/article/352787
• Brain mapping projects - http://www.technologyreview.com/news/513011/why-obamas-brain-mapping-project-matters/
• Global Future 2045 (immortality) http://2045.com/
• Human enhancement - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_enhancement
• Wearable technology – Google Project Glass - http://www.google.com/glass/start/
• Emotiv Epoc Brain-Computer Interface - http://www.emotiv.com/
• AI Essay Grading Software - http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/05/science/new-test-for-computers-grading-essays-at-
college-level.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
• Digital / Crypto currencies –
• http://www.abc.net.au/technology/articles/2013/09/25/3855973.htm
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cryptocurrencies
• Autonomous cars -
• http://www.engineering.com/DesignerEdge/DesignerEdgeArticles/ArticleID/6357/Tesla-Working-on-Autonomous-
Car.aspx
• http://www.popsci.com/cars/article/2013-09/google-self-driving-car
Contact Information
Email [email protected]
Phone +44 (0)7973 405145
Web http://www.fastfuture.com
http://www.fastfuturepublishing.com
Twitter http://twitter.com/fastfuture
Blog http://www.fastfuturepublishing.com/blog
LinkedIn http://www.linkedin.com/in/talwar
Past presentations http://www.slideshare.net/fastrohit
Newsletter signup http://www.fastfuture.com
Slide Sources
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