dmug 2016 - dr ben marner, air quality consultant
TRANSCRIPT
NOx Emissions from Modern
Diesel Vehicles
Dr Ben Marner
Introduction
• Compile results from real-world emissions tests
• See how Defra’s EFT is performing
• Can we improve on the EFT’s predictions?
Historical Context
Predicted Measured
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
An
nu
al M
ean
NO
2 (m
g/m
3 )
Objective
Official
No Reductions in Emissionsper Vehicle
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%2
00
8
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
Euro 6
Euro 5
Euro 4
Euro 3
Euro 2
Euro 1
Pre-Euro 1
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
Euro VI
Euro V
Euro IV
Euro III
Euro II
Euro I
“Emissionsgate”
Composition of National
Diesel Car Fleet (v/km)
Composition of National
Artic HGV Fleet (v/km)
“Past Performance is no Guarantee of Future Results”*
*my pension statement
Compiled Test Results for
Euro 6 Diesel Cars
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Co
nfo
rmit
y Fa
cto
r
Dynanometer PEMS/SEMS
Tu Graz TNO ADAC TFL TNO Weiss ICCT Emissions Analytics
Tate
Remote
5 Veh Tested
10 Veh Tested
20 Veh Tested
Key
Weighted Average from Dyno and Pems/Sems tests
Dynanometer PEMS/SEMS
Tu Graz TNO ADAC TFL TNO Weiss ICCT Emissions Analytics
Tate
Remote
5 Veh Tested
10 Veh Tested
20 Veh Tested
Key
Weighted Average from Dyno and Pems/Sems tests
Euro 6 Diesel Cars
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
Co
nfo
rmit
y Fa
cto
r
Speed (kph)
Studies whereAverage Speedis NotReported
Studies Wherean AverageSpeed isReported
Studies Wherea Range ofSpeeds isReported
WeightedAverage
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
Co
nfo
rmit
y Fa
cto
r
Speed (kph)
COPERT 4 V10E6
AllMeasurementStudies
WeightedAverage fromMeasurements
Euro 6 Diesel Cars
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
Co
nfo
rmit
y Fa
cto
r
Speed (kph)
COPERT 4 V10E6
UpliftedEmissions
AllMeasurementStudies
WeightedAverage fromMeasurements
Euro 6 Diesel Cars
Heavies
• Few vehicles/engines tested (15 engines + remote
sensing)
• Lots of possible engine / vehicle combinations
• g/kwh or g/km
• Focused on relative differences between Euro
standards
Heavies
Substantial Reductions from Euro V to Euro VI – both Measured and Predicted
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Euro
VI a
s %
of
Euro
V
Speed (kph)
Buses and Coaches COPERT
HGVs COPERT
TNO, 2014 Urban
TNO, 2014 Extra-urban EVI
TU Graz, 2013
TfL, 2015 (Artic)
Tate, 2013
Tate, 2015 (Artic)
Tate, 2015 (Rigid)
Heavies
Measured Reductions up to Euro V Less Persuasive
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Euro
V a
s %
of
Euro
III
Speed (kph)
COPERT V10 HGVs
COPERT V10 Bus and Choach
TNO, 2014
Carslaw and Ryhs-Tyler, 2013
Tate, 2013
Tate, 2015
Tate, 2015
Heavies
• No Strong Evidence of Reduction between Euro III
and Euro V
So uplift Euro IV and V to parity with Euro III
• Euro VI ca. 80% Reduction from Euro V
So set Euro VI to be 20% of Euro III*
*For the equivalent vehicle type, when emissions for all speeds are averaged
Heavies
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
170%
Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV Euro V (EGR) Euro V (SCR) Euro VI
Emis
sio
ns
as %
of
Euro
III
Rigid <=7,5 t
Rigid 7,5 - 12 t
Rigid 12 - 14 t
Rigid 14 - 20 t
Rigid 20 - 26 t
Rigid 26 - 28 t
Rigid 28 - 32 t
Rigid >32 t
Articulated 14 - 20 t
Articulated 20 - 28 t
Articulated 28 - 34 t
Articulated 34 - 40 t
Articulated 40 - 50 t
Emission Standard
Summary of Adjustments
Vehicle Type Adjustment Applied to Emission Factors
All Petrol Vehicles No adjustment
Light Duty Diesel Vehicles
Euro 5 and earlier
No adjustment
Euro 6 Uplifted (to provide a Conformity Factor of 5)
Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicles
Euro III and earlier
No adjustment
Euro IV and V
Set to equal Euro III values for equivalent vehicle type
Euro VI Multiplied by between 1.8 and 4.4 (depending on vehicle type) to equal 20% of Euro III emissions (for that vehicle
type)
Overall Effect
Phasing of Euro 6
Euro 6a/b 2015/16 - 2017 ‘New’ European Drive Cycle (NEDC)
2017 - 2020 Euro 6c World Light-duty
Test Cycle
Real Driving Emissions (RDE) with Conformity
Factor of up to 2.1
2020 onward Euro 6d World Light-duty
Test Cycle RDE with Conformity Factor of up to 1.5*
* CF of 1 with a measurement tolerance of 0.5 to be reviewed yearly
CURED!
free to use and available from: www.aqconsultants.co.uk
Excel Calculator
The End
Thanks for Staying Awake
This presentation was based on a report which is available at:
http://www.aqconsultants.co.uk/Resources/Download-Reports.aspx
References are set out in the report linked above
Dr Ben Marner
Tel: 0117 974 1086
Email: [email protected]
Head Office
23 Coldharbour Road, Bristol BS6 7JT
Tel: 0117 974 1086
London Office
12 Airedale Road, London SW12 8SF
Tel/Fax: 020 8673 4313