dividend stocks performing well in a volatile market · dividend stocks performing well in a...
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April 2015 Vol. 1 Issue 11
April 2015 Vol. 1 Issue 11
Dividend Stocks Performing Well in a
Volatile Market
Fellow Investor,
arch was another month of high volatility in the markets. If
you are watching your own brokerage account, it may seem
like you can't catch a break, you get a good day with nice
price gains, and the market takes it all back the next. If MLPs
and energy sector dividend stocks are up one day, REITs are
down the same day. You may be a little surprised to learn that
the different high-yield dividend stock sectors balanced each
other out for an average total return over the last month that
was better than the broad stock market averages.
To make some return comparisons, let's start with the widely
followed and owned SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY). Over the
last month SPY is down 4.9% and year-to-date the ETF is up a
paltry 0.2%. In comparison, the average total return of the
stocks that were in The Dividend Hunter portfolio on December
31, 2014 is 8.0%. With an average yield in the
recommendations list of 8.7%, about 2% of that return was
from cash dividends. For the last 30 days, The Dividend Hunter has produced a break even total return.
During March there were very nice positive surprises for a couple of the stocks in the portfolio. I will discuss
these in the portfolio update section of this issue. I would like to say that after its recent very large share price
run up, Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. (NYSE:HASI) is currently a HOLD, and you
should not be looking to buy shares. Income investors have really discovered HASI in the last couple of month
and the share price is up 30%. This has pushed the yield to 5.6% down from over 7% when the stock was trading
around $14 during the first part of the year. HASI has a very attractive dividend growth outlook, but I would like
to see the yield back above 6%.
Looking forward into April, while it seems that earnings season just finished, the 2015 first quarter is over and
many companies will start reporting earnings and/or declaring their next dividend/distribution in the latter days
of April. Portfolio recommendation stock Kinder Morgan, Inc. (NYSE:KMI) is an earnings reporting company and
I expect KMI to release earnings and declare a higher dividend around the 15th of the month.
This may be the best tip you get out of this month's newsletter: If you have cash available, buy some KMI. If you
are sitting on a big gain in HASI, sell a third or half of your position and use the cash to buy some KMI. The Kinder
Morgan share price has been flat since the end of November and the dividend will grow by 15% or so in 2015.
M In This Issue A New Approach to MLP Fund Products .... 3
MLPS and the Income Investor .................. 4
RLJ Lodging Trust (NYSE: RLJ) ..................... 6
Portfolio Update ........................................ 8
Portfolio Standings ..................................... 9
Closed Positions ......................................... 9
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April 2015 Vol. 1 Issue 11
Kinder increases its dividend every quarter, so my projected 4% increase in the quarterly payment should give a
nice boost to the share price.
I really like and appreciate all the email questions I receive from
subscribers, so don't be shy about sending me a note.
Also, you will be getting a few more notices from us that I and Bret
Jensen, the other Investors Alley editor, will be making
presentations at the MoneyShow in Las Vegas, May 12 to 14. I know
some of you are coming and if you live in the area or Southern
California, or you just need an excuse to come to Vegas, I would like
to meet and chat with more subscribers. Click here for details on
my presentations, Bret’s presentations, and how to register (it’s
free!). And this year we’ll be manning a booth. It’s #417 to be exact.
Stop by and chat, talk dividend stocks, or just say “hello”.
Land, fly or die,
Tim Plaehn
Editor
The Dividend Hunter
P.S. If you use the Monthly Paycheck Dividend Calendar as a regular part of your strategy be sure to get this
month’s update. Our new additions are included as well as a few adjustments. Click here for your copy.
That's me at last year's show sharing dividend investing tips with an above capacity room full of investors (don't tell the fire chief).
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April 2015 Vol. 1 Issue 11
A New Approach to MLP Fund Products Master limited partnership (MLP) units are one of the
most attractive investment categories available to
income focused stock investors. From the list of MLPs
and related companies you can find a wide range of
attractive current yields, with many of the companies
dedicated to increasing their distribution rates on a
regular basis. However, in some circumstances an
investor would like to own a basket of MLPs in a single
fund-type product. The financial services industry has
developed and offers MLP focused exchange traded
funds (ETFs), closed-end funds (CEFs), exchange traded
notes (ETNs) and mutual funds. However, there is a
significant issue with MLP funds vs. funds that own
regular, corporate stock shares.
Funds that focus on MLPs also must deal with additional
tax issues. If an MLP focused fund has more than 25% of
its assets in partnership units, the fund cannot qualify as
a non-taxable, regulated investment company (RIC). The
tax rules force any fund with a higher percentage of
MLP assets to be organized as a corporation and to pay
corporate taxes on its profits.
In practice an MLP fund tracks the accrued income taxes
on the gains in its portfolio and subtracts the future tax
liability from the fund's net asset value (NAV). The result
of a 35% to 40% corporate income tax bill is that the
NAV of a fund will lag the gains in the portfolio by the
tax rate.
For example, the Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index
(NYSE: AMZI) is one of the most widely followed
indicators of MLP sector returns. The index is mirrored
by the ALPS Alerian MLP ETF (NYSE: AMLP). Over the
three years that ended on December, 2014 the index
had recorded an average annual return of 13.24%. For
the same period, the AMLP ETF produced average
returns of 8.18% per year, a 38% per year under-
performance compared to the index. For this reason I
have not recommended MLP ETFs as an investment
option for the MLP sector.
Introducing InfraCap MLP ETF
Launched in October 2014, the InfraCap MLP ETF
(NYSE:AMZA) is just now getting its position in the
market solidified. AMZA was established as one of a
new breed of ETFs. Traditional ETFs automatically buy
and hold securities to match the securities tracked by a
specific index. Over the last year, fund companies have
started to come up with actively management ETFs,
which mix the characteristics of an index fund with
additional investment criteria from an investment
advisor. AMZA is the first actively managed ETF in MLP-
focused funds space. Here is how the InfraCap MLP ETF
is designed to operate:
The fund will own the same MLPs as the ones
tracked by the Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index,
with the following possible enhancements to
the index:
The fund manager can weight individual MLPs
holdings different than the index. The AMZI is
strictly market cap weighted, tracking the 25
largest midstream MLPs, with bigger MLPs
having a greater weight on fund performance.
AMZA will weight these same MLPs based on
the return potential from the management
team's proprietary algorithm.
The fund can own the publicly traded general
partner companies of the index component
MLPs. The general partner of an MLP can
generate an accelerated level of cash flow
growth compared to the limited partnership it
manages. The GP companies can produce extra
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April 2015 Vol. 1 Issue 11
capital gains for the fund and a faster growing
distribution cash flow stream.
The fund can sell call options (covered call
strategy) to generate extra cash income from
the portfolio.
Fund managers can use a moderate amount of
leverage (up to 33% of the portfolio). Leverage
in an MLP fund helps offset a portion of the
corporate income tax drag.
These strategies are in wide-spread usage by the MLP-
focused closed-end funds. When I was provided the
opportunity to interview the InfraCap fund managers,
my first question was why they had selected to go with
the ETF structure rather than as a CEF. The answer was
the management team wanted to provide a higher level
of visibility on what is happening in the portfolio. They
are and it is a good thing. Also, the ETF structure allows
the fund sponsor to use some additional tools to keep
the market share price in line with the fund's net asset
value (NAV). Closed-end fund shares often trade at
significant discounts or premiums to their NAVs. An ETF
should have a market share price that is within a few
cents of the NAV.
At the end of the investment research, AMZA provides
an MLP ETF with a high level of visibility on how it
operates. Over time, investment results can be directly
compared to the AMLP ETF, which owns the same MLPs
to track the AMZI index. This allows us to directly track
whether InfraCaps enhancement strategies are working
to produce a better return.
Investment Potential
Before the prices of crude oil and natural gas started
their steep declines in the last third of 2014, the MLP
sector had been producing outstanding returns for
investors. This chart shows the AMZI total return results
for the last 10 years.
These investment results are the result of attractive
distribution yields combined with steady distribution
growth. Although MLP stock market prices are down
over the last six months, the midstream distribution
growth story of the 25 companies in the AMZI index
remains intact. There may be a few more rough patches
for the MLP sector as the industry and market adjust to
a different energy pricing world, but long term investors
will do well with the basket of MLPs represented by
AMZA.
The InfraCap MLP Fund paid $0.50 per share as its first
quarterly dividend. That's a 9.4% yield on the current
$21.20 share price. The management team told me
their goal is to be able to increase the dividend rate
every quarter. AMZA works as an attractive high-yield
choice for investors who want energy sector and MLP
exposure but do not want to own individual units. It can
also be used to get MLP coverage in an IRA, where I do
not recommend the use of individual MLPs.
With this issue, I am replacing the Salient Midstream
MLP Fund (NYSE:SMM) –a closed-end fund– in The
Dividend Hunter recommendations list with AMZA.
SMM is down since I added it to the portfolio. The fund
will recover with the overall MLP sector, but if you can
use the tax loss, sell SMM and buy AMZA.
Recommendation: buy AMZA up to $21.51.
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April 2015 Vol. 1 Issue 11
MLPs and the Income Investor Out of the different high-yield investment types, master
limited partnerships offer both very attractive yield plus
growth potential and additional potential negative
consequences for investors. While I find a number of
very attractive investment prospects in the MLP space,
they are not for every investor or every account type.
Today I want to provide a quick outline of the overall
MLP space and what an investor should consider before
buying into an MLP or putting cash into another
alternative.
As the name clearly states, MLPs are a type of
partnership. When you invest you buy limited partner
units. These units trade on the stocks exchanges just
like the shares of a corporation, but always keep in
mind you are becoming a limited partner in an MLP and
not a shareholder. As an LP investor, your amount at
risk is limited to the money you pay for any units you
buy.
By tax rules, the MLP business structure is limited to
companies that operate in the energy or natural
resources sectors. About two-thirds of all MLPs operate
in the midstream sector of the energy sector.
Midstream includes energy gathering, processing,
transport by pipeline, train or truck, storage and
terminal operations. The other third covers a wide
range of energy related businesses such as drilling and
owning oil wells (upstream) and crude oil refineries and
chemical plants that use natural gas or natural gas
liquids as raw materials (downstream).
An MLP pays distributions, which look like common
stock dividends, but get used to the term distributions.
Under the tax rules, the distributions you receive are
not taxable income. They do go to reduce your cost
basis in the MLP. If you reach the point where you have
earned more in distributions than you paid for the units,
the distributions then become taxable as ordinary
income. The distribution yields on many MLPs are very
attractive, and the better partnerships will increase
their distribution rate per unit every quarter.
Even though the distributions from an MLP are basically
tax-free, you still can have tax consequences from MLP
investments. First, every MLP that you own will send
you an IRS Schedule K-1. This is a partnership form that
lists your share of the partnership's profits or losses
during the past year. You must report the K-1
information on your tax return, which can be a more
complicated process than reporting Form 1099 income.
As an MLP investor, you have your own specific cost
basis and profit or loss situation in the partnership.
Profits and losses are not allocated by unit, but by when
you purchased and what you paid for your units. The
good news is that in most cases you will have little or no
taxable income from your K-1s, unless you have owned
an MLP for quite a few years.
Who Can or Should Own MLPs?
MLPs are a tremendous, tax-advantaged investment for
a high tax bracket investor. The tax-free distributions
and low amounts of K-1 reportable income more than
offset any costs or extra work associated with including
K-1 reporting on a tax return.
Mid-tax bracket investors who are comfortable with
doing their own taxes can quite readily own MLPs. The
different tax planning software packages will handle K-
1s just fine. If you use someone to prepare your taxes, it
is good to ask how much that person charges to process
K-1s for your tax return. Some preparers charge quite a
bit extra report your MLP results. Remember that
accountant types will shy away from things they don't
understand, so they may be leery of you investing in
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April 2015 Vol. 1 Issue 11
MLPs. The investment choice is yours, based on the
potential return vs. any extra costs of the tax reporting.
Whether you are a low tax bracket investor (in the
lowest 10% and 15%) depends on the investor's
experience in the market. The novice who is new to
owning income stocks should probably steer clear of
direct MLP ownership. An experienced stock market
investor in this tax bracket may want to own an
individual MLP or two for the return potential and
energy sector exposure.
IRA Considerations
As a general rule, K-1 reporting MLPs and IRA accounts
do not mix. Owning an MLP in an IRA can result in the
situation where your IRA must file a separate tax return
and pay the corporate income tax rate on the profits
reported on the K-1. You will find plenty of online
investor stories that claim to own MLP units in an IRA
without any tax issues, but it is almost impossible to
determine in advance whether buying a specific MLP
with your IRA will result in an extra tax bill. My advice is,
don't do it.
To get MLP returns in your IRA you can go with a fund
product. This month I have added the InfraCap MLP ETF
(NYSE:AMZA) to The Dividend Hunter
recommendations list. AMZA would be an appropriate
IRA investment. Another recommendation, Kinder
Morgan, Inc (NYSE:KMI) is a corporate stock that
functions very much like a large cap MLP. KMI is also a
good IRA prospect.
For more on MLPs be sure to check out my “Quick Start
Guide to MLP Investing”. In it you’ll learn whether
MLPs could be right for you, how to get MLP exposure
in your retirement account, and the basics of upstream
MLP inverting. The guide is free and is a benefit that
comes with you subscription to The Dividend Hunter.
Click here for your copy.
RLJ Lodging Trust The lodging/hotel subsector of the REIT sector has been
one of the best performing commercial real estate
corners for the last couple of years. The growth is
coming on the back of very strong dividend growth as
the hotel companies are taking advantage of an
upswing in their cyclical market.
I have not previously recommended any lodging REITs
here in The Dividend Hunter because the yields have
been lower than what fits with the goals of this
newsletter. With the recent sell down of the REIT
sector, share prices are lower, which means yields are
up and I can recommend what I think is the class of the
lodging REIT space: RLJ Lodging Trust (NYSE:RLJ).
Business Overview
RLJ currently owns 124 hotels plus two additional
properties that will be converted into hotels. The five
largest locations for EBITDA generation are New York
City, Austin, Texas; Denver, Chicago, and Washington,
D.C. Almost all of the hotels (98%) are branded as
Marriott, Hilton or Hyatt. Although its IPO was just four
years ago, the company has a very experienced
management team, with over 150 years of hotel
experience at the senior levels.
What sets RLJ apart from its peers is an aggressive
approach by management to make the company more
profitable. Some examples:
Since its IPO the company has acquired 27
properties in key high-growth markets totaling
$1.1 billion.
Management actively weeds out under
performing hotels, selling 39 assets for
approximately $370 million, in what the
company calls its capital recycling program.
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April 2015 Vol. 1 Issue 11
Capital is spent to upgrade newly purchased
hotels and they are often rebranded to one of
RLJ's preferred premium hotel brands. This
allows the company to increase average room
rates and improve profit margins.
Existing hotels are actively managed to
generate higher revenue per room (RevPAR in
hotel jargon) and gross operating profits.
RLJ Lodging Trust can generate growth from both
existing owned hotels and through acquisitions that can
be brought into the RLJ system to further enhance their
profit potential.
I want to spend a few minutes discussing the one factor
that sets hotels apart from most other forms of
commercial real estate and the REITs that own them.
While most REITs own properties that are on long term
leases with no or very low rent payment escalators,
hotels are a variable revenue business. The cash flow
and resulting EBITDA of a lodging rate depend on how
many room nights are sold and what guests pay for the
rooms. RLJ reports the two metrics of hotel EBITDA
margin and RevPAR to show how well the company is
operating as a hotel manager. For 2014, the EBITDA
margin increased by 1.14% to 35.6%. At the end of
2011, this measure of operating efficiency was at 33.4%.
RevPAR is revenue per available room. Quarter after
quarter RLJ has been increasing this metric by 6% to 7%
compared to a year earlier. These two metrics
combined show a steady pattern of increased
profitability from operations.
Be aware that the hotel industry is cyclical. The cycle
tends to mirror the U.S. economy. A recession will drive
down business travel, reducing room occupancy, room
rates and hotel profits. When the economy recovers,
hotel companies will sell more rooms at steadily higher
rates. Typically, in the growth cycle companies will start
to construct large numbers of new hotels, putting a cap
on occupancy and RevPAR growth. In the current cycle,
the memory of the last recession remains strong and
the industry has not yet started to significantly increase
the number of hotels through construction. Because of
this, I expect the ability of quality lodging REITs to be
able to continue their trajectories of dividend and share
price growth.
Big Time Dividend Growth
RLJ Lodging has been generating real cash flow growth
and sharing that growth with investors. Since the end of
2013 the quarterly dividend rate has been increased
three times by a total of 61%. In early March the
dividend was bumped up by 10%, just two quarters
after a large increase in the quarterly payment to
investors. The new dividend rate is still just 57% of the
adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) per share
generated in the 2014 fourth quarter. In the current
economy, RLJ should be able to sustain at least 10%
annual dividend growth and I would not be surprised by
growth in the high teens.
With the dividend growth over the last 2 1/2 years, the
RLJ share price has climbed to keep the yield at about
3.5%. However, over the last two months the general
REIT sell off combined with the announced dividend
increase has pushed the RLJ yield up to about 4.25%.
This is a strong trigger for me to buy and accumulate
shares. You will not find growth like this with a 4%+
yield in the REIT universe.
Recommendation: Buy RJL up to $33 for a yield greater than 4%.
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April 2015 Vol. 1 Issue 11
Portfolio Update Let's start this off with a question I field from
subscribers regularly. Here are three portfolio
recommendations that I would cull out of the
bunch as currently extra-attractive investments.
Ship Finance International Ltd.
(NYSE:SFL). The SFL share price is below
$15 and the yield over 11%. My
reasoning: What the market is currently
not taking into account is the 30% of
SFL's revenue from crude oil tanker
leases. Tankers are being used to store
excess oil production, driving up daily
tanker lease spot rates. All of the Ship
Finance tanker lease contracts have
profit share clauses which means that
the company will participate in the
current tanker spot price boom.
Kinder Morgan Inc. (NYSE: KMI). The
share price has been stagnant and KMI
will announce a 3.5% to 4% dividend
increase in mid-April, and next quarter
and the following quarter also.
Lexington Realty Trust (NYSE:LXP). The
share price is down 8% since I added
this REIT to The Dividend Hunter
recommendations last month. (REITs
are down as a sector). LXP now yields
almost 7% and should announce a
dividend increase in June.
On about February 20 New Residential
Investment (NYSE:NRZ) announced an
agreement to purchase the only other company
operating in the same, niche, mortgage
servicing rights business. The NRZ share price is
up 15% and the total return is 34% since NRZ
was added to The Dividend Hunter in August
2008. However, this finance REIT still yields 10%
and the share price has the potential to reach
$20 in 2015.
Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure
Capital (NYSE:HASI) has been discovered by the
investing public. What was a 7% plus yield is
now 5.7% as the share price has gained close to
30% since early February. I would recommend
against buying shares at the current price and
yield. It is possible that the share price will
come back to earth and HASI would again be
attractive with a 6.5% yield. If you caught all or
most of the run up, taking some gains would
not be a bad idea.
Otherwise things are steady in The Dividend
Hunter portfolio. The upstream MLPs,
Memorial Production Partners
(Nasdaq:MEMP) and Legacy Reserves
(Nasdaq:LGCY) are still at the mercy of the
swings in the energy prices market. I wrote and
sent articles on each during March. You can find
them in the archives of your InvestorsAlley.com
account.
With the end of March, the first quarter closes
for most companies. We will get some earnings
reports and dividend announcements in the
second half of April. Have I mentioned that it
would be a good idea to buy some KMI before
Kinder Morgan announces first quarter earnings
on about April 15. Good.
Please drop me an email note if you any questions
concerning any of The Dividend Hunter portfolio
holdings. I can be reached at
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April 2015 Vol. 1 Issue 11
Current Portfolio
Stock
Entry
Date
Entry
Price
Recent
Price
Buy Up
To
Annual
Div
Proj.
Yield
Cash
Return
RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ) 03/31/15 $31.31 $31.31 $33.00 $1.32 4.00%
InfraCap MLP ETF (AMZA) 03/31/15 $21.51 $21.51 $22.51 N/A N/A
Lexington Realty Trust (LXP) 02/27/15 $10.83 $9.83 $0.68 6.25%
Kinder Morgan (KMI) 01/30/15 $41.05 $42.06 $43.00 $1.80 4.50%
Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) 01/30/15 $29.90 $28.37 $30.00 $2.08 7.00% 1.8%
Stag Industrial (STAG) 12/30/14 $24.86 $23.52 $25.50 $1.35 5.00% 1.4%
ONEOK (OKS) 11/28/14 $44.08 $40.84 $45.60 $3.10 7.00% 1.9%
TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) 10/30/14 $16.51 $16.02 $17.00 $1.44 8.50% 4.7%
EPR Properties (EPR) 10/30/14 $55.64 $60.03 $57.00 $3.42 6.00% 2.7%
Memorial Production (MEMP) 09/30/14 $22.02 $16.21 $23.00 $2.20 9.50% 5.0%
Legacy Reserves (LGCY) 09/30/14 $29.68 $10.12 $30.00 $2.44 8.00% 4.1%
Hannon Armstrong Sustainable
Infrastructure Capital (HASI)
08/28/14 $14.49 $18.28 $15.00 $0.88 6.00% 5.1%
New Residential Investment (NRZ)** 07/30/14 $12.16 $15.03 $12.50 $0.70 11.00% 9.1%
Arc Logistics Partners (ARCX) 07/30/14 $25.10 $19.28 $28.00 $1.55 6.00% 4.9%
Main Street Capital (MAIN) 06/27/14 $32.51 $30.90 $32.50 $1.98 6.00% 5.5%
Starwood Property Trust (STWD) 05/30/14 $24.39 $24.30 $25.00 $1.92 7.80% 7.9%
Ship Finance International (SFL) 05/30/14 $18.46 $14.80 $19.00 $1.64 8.50% 8.9%
Macquarie Infras. Company (MIC) 05/30/14 $61.48 $82.29 $63.50 $3.75 4.75% 4.8%
Closed Positions
Stock
Entry
Date
Entry
Price
Close
Price
Close
Date
Div
Earned
Total
Return
Cash
Return
Salient Midstream & MLP Fund (SMM) 08/28/14 $31.23 $21.67 03/31/15 $0.93 -27.64% 2.97%
Oaktree Capital Group (OAK) 05/30/14 $49.98 $54.14 02/09/15 $1.17 10.66% 2.34%
Ventas (VTR) 05/30/14 $66.80 $80.52 01/30/15 $1.45 22.71% 2.17%
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April 2015 Vol. 1 Issue 11
Notes:
Entry price is determined by the last "Ask" price at the closing of the market on the day before publication. Recent price is determined by the last "Ask" price at the
closing of the market on the day before publication; most recent update 03/31/15. Annual Div is the dividend payment as declared by the company and made publicly
available. It is as of the closing of the market on the day before publication. Proj. Yield may deviate from current yield as it’s based off the share price at the time of
initiating the position, not the current share price. We make no guarantee that any company in the portfolio will continue dividend payments. For a more detailed
look at the portfolio, log on at www.investorsalley.com.
** NRZ entry price adjusted for 1 for 2 split on 10/20/14. Original entry price on 07/30/14 was $6.08.
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