Mortality Rates of Cancer Patients

Priya Herian 1011944BSc (Hons) Mathematics

University of Wolverhampton

Supervisor: Ruth FaircloughPrinciple Lecturer Mathematics

Faculty of Science and Engineering

AbstractAim

Mortality rates of patients affected by variables Acceptance or Rejection of the null-hypothesis

MethodSPSS SoftwareCox Proportional Hazard ModelKaplan-Meier Analysis

ResultsAmpullary Cancer affected by “resected” and “complications”Pancreatic Cancer affected by “resected” and “less than 69”

ConclusionRejection of null-hypothesisConfirmation using Kaplan-Meier Analysis

Overview of Cancer

Genes change

Cells grow excessively and multiple too fast

Over 200 types of cancer

Ampullary Cancer Facts

Figure 1.1 Age-standardised incidence rates of Ampulla of Vater cancer per 100’000 European population (ASR(E)) by Gender and Year of diagnosis

Pancreatic Cancer Facts

5th most common cause of cancer death in men

4th most common cause of cancer death in women

More common in women than men

Half of all deaths are in 75 years and over

Cox Proportional Hazard Model (Cox PH

Model)Various variables upon the time a specified event takes to happen

Estimate of treatment effect on survival

t = time X = predictor variables H0 = null hypothesis

Assumes the time to an event is defined by a hazard function

Creation of baseline hazard function, independent of exponential function

Baseline Hazard defines the shape of hazard function

Assumptions & Decisions

SPSSClear Accurate

HypothesisH0 : The mortality rates of cancer patients are not affected by the following variables: resected, less than 69, multiple procedures and complicationsH1 : At least one variable has an impact on the mortality rates of cancer patients

Forward Stepwise Function within SPSS

SPSS Cox PH Model Output

Kaplan-Meier Analysis

ni number of subjects at riskdi number of subjects who failti time

Product Limit EstimatorNon-parametric statisticEstimate survival function Fraction of patients living over time

Kaplan-Meier Assumptions

Ampullary CancerNot Resected with No Complications = 1Not Resected with Complications = 2Resected with No Complications = 3Resected with Complications= 4

Pancreatic CancerNot Resected and being 69 or older = 1Not Resected and being less than 69 = 2Resected and being 69 or older = 3Resected and being less than 69 = 4

Kaplan-Meier Analysis Output

Conclusion & Critical Evaluation

20.053% differenceAmpullary cancer – higher survival rate

HypothesisNull hypothesis is rejected

No measurable difference between gender and multiple procedures

Further WorkExtending data amountComputer Software PackagesSurvival Analysis MethodsLiterature Review