DISEC

STUDY GUIDE

Manchester Model United Nations Conference 2017Manchester Model UN SocietyUniversity of Manchester Students' Union

www.manmun.co.uk

Most esteemed ManMUN delegates,

Welcome to ManMUN 2017, we would like to congratulate you on being chosen to participate in this conference and look forward to meeting you in the coming weeks. The secretariat has planned a fantastic conference in Manchester, which will truly stand out as a MUN conference to remember. Your thoughtful insights and contributions to DISEC will make for an astounding Model UN experience that will be a fond memory for years to come.

Whether you are advanced or a complete beginner, ManMUN will guide you through the experience. Both chairs will be there to guide you through the conference and ensure that you can engage to the fullest with debates in DISEC. For a few days, you will take on the role of diplomats within one of the most important UN committees, finding solutions to enduring security problems facing the world today.

This study guide will serve as a vital tool for you as delegates and therefore please make use of it to familiarise yourself with the committee’s debates. Ultimately this guide should act as a foundation for your future research on the topic and will allow you to discern your country’s stance on either debate. The guide will also ask you to reflect on potential discussion points, as well as possible solutions to the issues at hand.

One fantastic quality of MUN is the ability to meet people from around the world. This being said, we would like to introduce ourselves as chairs, and welcome you to DISEC:

Hello everyone, my name is Bennett Nightingale and will be acting as Head Chair in DISEC. I was born in Amsterdam but I am currently studying Politics at the University of York for my second year. This will be my 7th conference and 3rd time as chair. I have a particular interest in philosophy and hope you will tolerate my vague philosophic ramblings when drunk during the socials. I hope you have an excellent time as part of DISEC, myself and Ranjana will be here to guide you through the debates. I look forward to meeting you all for what will be a conference to remember. Hello I’m Jana! I am a 3rd year attempting to make it through Uni and graduate with a qualification in Law and International Relations. Born in India at the tender age of 0, I moved to Edinburgh when I was 13 and have called this beautiful place my home ever since. I will be one of your chairs for the conference (Lord save us all!). A tiny confession, me joining MUN was a complete accident. As I was a lost new student wandering around, I stumbled into a room with familiar faces and became a victim of the MUN fever. There's been no turning back ever since. Apart from MUN and other societies, I quite enjoy drinking tea, ranting about the many things wrong with this world, exercising and a good night out. I can be found either in Teviot attempting to study/amid a mental breakdown, Starbucks, some watering hole or on the hunt for bubble-tea.

We look forward to meeting you all. Best regards, DISEC Dais

Your Chairs

1

Introduction to the Committee

The Disarmament and International Security Committee (DISEC) is one of the six subsidiary committees of the General Assembly established by the UN Charter in 1945. It deals with issues of international security, disarmament, global challenges and threats to peace; along with any other issues under Article I, Clause 1 of the Charter . Also known as 1

the First Committee, DISEC meets annually for a 4-week session in October. All 193 members of the General Assembly are allowed to attend.

Although the First Committee has the power to discuss any issue of international security, it can firstly only pass nonbinding resolutions, and can only discuss issues which are not currently being discussed by the Security Council. Resolutions passed by DISEC, therefore, are not legally binding and only take on the form of recommendations. Despite this however, the First Committee, along with the General Assembly, has two distinct powers. Firstly, it can pass resolutions onto the Security Council to be discussed so they may become binding international law. Secondly, pursuant to the Uniting for Peace Resolution passed in 1950 , the 2

General Assembly may take action if the Security Council fails to pass a resolution due to a veto. In the case of an immediate threat to international security, if a majority of General Assembly members request for an Emergency Special Session on the aforementioned topic, the Secretary-General must grant it.

The nature of the First Committee has changed considerably over time. the First Committee originally dealt with political and security matters when established in 1946. In 1993, however, the UN General Assembly restructured its six main committees and passed this role to the Fourth Committee. the First Committee has not only been the key point of discussion for disarmament issues since then but also since the establishment of the United Nations itself. The very first resolution to be passed in the UN concerning “The Establishment of a Commission to Deal with the Problems Raised by the Discovery of Atomic Energy” came from the First Committee . The committee has also undergone a series of reforms to 3

rationalize its agenda , as well as focusing more on achieving consensus to pass resolutions. 4

Despite this however, many resolutions, especially regarding new or controversial issues, split the First Committee between several different voting blocs.

All members of the First Committee have one vote each, regardless of population size or political power. DISEC at ManMUN will also follow this voting method.

UN, (1945), UN Charter, Chapter I: Article I; http://www.un.org/en/sections/un-charter/chapter-i/1

index.html

UN, (1950), Resolution 377: Uniting for Peace, United Nations General Assembly: Fifth Session; http://2

www.un.org/en/sc/repertoire/otherdocs/GAres377A(v).pdf

UN, (1946), Resolution 1: The Establishment of a Commission to Deal with the Problems Raised by the Discovery 3

of Atomic Energy, First Committee: http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/RES/1(I)

See; UN, (2017), Disarmament and International Security; http://www.un.org/en/ga/first/4

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Topic A: The Relationship Between Disarmament and Development

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1. Introduction

“In order to promote the establishment and maintenance of international peace and security with the least diversion for armaments of the world's human and economic resources” . Article 26 of the Charter of the United Nations. 5

The United Nations recognises that “disarmament and development are two of the international community’s most important tools for building a world free from want and fear” . Both are understood to be the twin pillars of international security and it is only by 6

encouraging both disarmament and development, as well as understanding the complex relationship between them, that international security is possible. As delegates of the First Committee, it is your task to elucidate how both disarmament and development may impact upon one another, and how the United Nations should act in accordance with such findings.

Disarmament and development have a mutually reinforcing relationship. It is understood by many scholars and institutions alike that disarmament has positive consequences for socio-economic and human development. Increased conflict and militarization pose serious physical threats to infrastructure, as well as educational and welfare systems, but also deters foreign investment and economic growth. It is paramount that in order to achieve a world where disarmament is a reality, the United Nations ought to pay more attention to how development and disarmament have a clear relationship with each other. In short, disarmament influences development and vice versa, making it your task as delegates to discuss their relationship further.

Today, however, the international community is witnessing a rapid growth in military expenditure. At the end of the Cold War, many speculated that high-levels of military spending, and by consequence under-development, would become a thing of the past. Despite this, however, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute found that there was a 0.4% growth in military spending in the last year, with a steady increase in military expenditures globally since the mid-1990s . At the same time, although there has been a 7

marked improvement in poverty rates since the 1990s, poverty is still a persistent problem facing regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa . As will be explored later in this guide, widespread 8

arms smuggling in impoverished regions of Africa perpetuates a vicious spiral of insecurity, hampering any possible development in the region. Both underdevelopment and growing

UN, (1946), Charter of the United Nations: Article 26; http://www.un.org/en/sections/un-charter/5

chapter-v/index.html

UN GA, (2004), A/59/119, Paragraph 4; https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/6

N04/402/50/PDF/N0440250.pdf ?OpenElement

SIPRI, (2016), Military Expenditure; https://www.sipri.org/research/armament-and-disarmament/7

arms-transfers-and-military-spending/military-expenditure

The World Bank, (2017), Poverty: Overview; http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/8

overview

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rates of militarization need to be tackled simultaneously, with acute awareness being made to the complex relationship the two processes have upon one another.

2. Background

1991 – The fall of the Soviet Union. Many speculate that this signals an end to widespread militarisation and high levels of arms spending.

1995 – Copenhagen Declaration on Social Development . Little focus is given to 9

disarmament and development as a mutually reinforcing process.

2011 – Thousands of weapons are seized after the fall of the Gadaffi regime in Libya, and begin to flow into West Africa.

2015 – Sustainable Development Goals are established. Again, almost no reference is given to the influence of disarmament.

2016 – Although poverty rates in Africa have fallen, due to a rapid rise in population, the number of people in poverty is actually higher than the 1990s . 10

2016 – The USA takes up most of the military spending, followed by Russia, China and Saudi Arabia . 11

2016 – Global military expenditures plateau at the highest level since the Cold War . 12

2017 – Ongoing crises in Libya, Yemen, Syria, Darfur and others continue to damage human development and public institutions. Socio-economic development is reduced.

2017 – Military expenditures increase in Europe, whilst falling in oil-exporting countries . 13

This trend does not, however, reflect illicit small arms smuggling or intra-state violence.

UN, (1995), A/CONF.166/9: World Summit for Social Development, Copenhagen, http://www.un-9

documents.net/cope-dec.htm

World Bank, (2016), While Poverty in Africa Has Declined, Number of Poor Has Increased; http://10

www.worldbank.org/en/region/afr/publication/poverty-rising-africa-poverty-report

SIPRI, op cit; https://www.sipri.org/research/armament-and-disarmament/arms-transfers-and-11

military-spending/military-expenditure

ibid.12

SIPRI, (2017), World Military Spending; https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2017/world-13

military-spending-increases-usa-and-europe

5

March 2017 – India is reported to have one of the fastest growing nuclear programmes in the world, despite rural poverty rates being high.

June 2017 – Ongoing violence hampers access to education in the third world . 14

August 2017 – Increased nuclear tensions between the USA and DPRK.

3. Current Situation and Main Issues

The following section will cover some of the main issues in relation to disarmament and development. This list is not exhaustive, however, and we encourage you to research and discuss any other issues that may be relevant to the First Committee.

a. Defining the relationship

It is not a new idea that rising military expenditure has an impact, (usually negative), on economic growth and development. Thinkers as early as Adam Smith discussed and analysed such a relationship, with a number of scholars concluding that disarmament provides positive conditions for socio-economic development. Studies have found that higher levels of conflict in a region as a consequence of military spending and mobilisation leads to a lower GDP per capita . As will be illustrated in later sections, militarisation diverts resources 15

from development programmes such as welfare and education. As investment in these sectors falls, this decreases human development, leading to reduced productivity, higher unemployment and increased migration from conflict areas. Aside from this, foreign creditors are unlikely to invest in unstable regions of the world, further reducing development.

The relationship between disarmament and development is much more complex than the arguments above would illustrate, however. Little attention has been made to how development can have a reverse impact on the possibility of conflict. More nuanced studies, from the likes of Ray & Esteban, have found economic growth which is unequal across employment sectors is more likely to lead to conflict and social tension between different

Ratcliffe, R., (2017), Drive to get children back to school failing worldwide, The Guardian; https://14

www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/jun/21/drive-to-get-children-back-to-school-failing-worldwide-un-figures-education

Ghani, E., (2010), Conflict and Development: Where is conflict concentrated in South Asia?, World 15

Bank; http://blogs.worldbank.org/endpovertyinsouthasia/conflict-and-development-where-conflict-concentrated-south-asia

Security

DevelopmentViolence

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groups . Consider for example how although South America has seen considerable economic 16

growth, levels of violence are high. This is because growth is unequal across sectors, creating inequality and tension. Arguably one of the best clarifications of this relationship comes from the Geneva Declaration . Researchers found that disarmament and development are 17

connected to a third factor, security. If disarmament and development are both pursued correctly, they have a positive impact on security. On the flip side, increased military spending leads to insecurity between states, creating violence which reduces development. Under-development often leads to violence, repeating the cycle. By understanding the importance of security in this relationship, DISEC can move forward in providing positive solutions to the issue.

b. The consequences of nuclear detonation on development

As tensions increase between the DPRK and the U.S., the possibility of nuclear war is not to be dismissed. Although the threat of nuclear devastation is no longer as imminent during the Cold War years, the increasing nuclear aspirations of a number of developing states have serious implications for global development prospects. The devastation witnessed in Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of the Second World War indicates the consequences of a nuclear blast in a developed area. Couple this with the advancement in nuclear technology since 1945, the destruction from a potential blast has short and long term consequences that humanity best avoid.

In the short term, huge loss of life and total destruction of infrastructure are obvious consequences of any nuclear detonation. Over 100,000 people died in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, with an immediate death rate counting up to 90% of all individuals within range. Those who survive will emerge with fatal burns and will most likely be blinded from the blast. More worrying, however, are the long-term implications of nuclear weapons. Firstly, exposure to radiation increases the likelihood of thyroid cancer among children and abnormalities amongst babies and adults . Aside from this, the environmental consequences of 100 18

Hiroshima sized bombs being detonated (less than 0.5% of the world’s stockpile), would

See: Ray, D. & Esteban, J., (2017), Conflict and Development, Annual Review of Economics, 16

(14)54, pp.263-293

Geneva Declaration, (2015), Global Burden of Armed Violence 2015: Everybody Counts; http://17

www.genevadeclaration.org/measurability/global-burden-of-armed-violence/gbav-2015/chapter-1.html

CND, (2016), The effect of nuclear weapons; http://www.cnduk.org/campaigns/global-abolition/18

effects-of-nuclear-weapons

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create enough soot and dust to disrupt the global climate for over 10 years . This would 19

ultimately lead to a nuclear winter in which global food supplies decrease, leading to famine and perpetual underdevelopment in the world’s poorest regions. A limited nuclear war could see more than one billion people face starvation. Given the current food shortages in certain parts of the globe, no international effort is currently prepared for the devastating long-term consequences of nuclear conflict.

Not only does nuclear war have huge implications upon detonation, but they also have significant consequences during development and disposal. Spending on nuclear programmes can often swallow a huge amount of a government’s spending, taking resources away from other development based programmes. Although nuclear weapons are seen as a security device, they undermine human security by leading to cuts in both educational and welfare sectors, leading to further underdevelopment in the long term . Research has found that in 20

2012 USD 121 billion was spent on nuclear weapon programmes, roughly double the amount OECD nations gave to overseas development assistance projects . The disposal of nuclear 21

weapons has also been problematic. Many states have resorted to overseas disposal methods, damaging the environment and potential fishing reserves . 22

c. Case Study: The Impact of Anti-Vehicle Mines (AVMs) in Afghanistan

Anti-vehicle mines are a serious problem for post-conflict development. Unlike anti-personal mines, AVMs, due to their higher pressure threshold, are likely to go unnoticed for many years after a conflict has finished. As re-development processes occur, the detonation of live AVMs has a huge impact on communities who had begun to rebuild after a war. Research from the Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining found that hundreds of thousands of live AVMs are still active in areas such as

ICRC, (2013), Climate Effects of Nuclear War and Implications for Global Food Production, 19

Information Note No.2; https://www.icrc.org/eng/assets/files/2013/4132-2-nuclear-weapons-global-food-production-2013.pdf

Sabatier, M., (2014), Disarmament or development?, International Law and Policy Institute: 20

Weapons of Mass Destruction Project; http://nwp.ilpi.org/?p=2461

ibid.21

Conserve Energy Future, (2017), Nuclear Waste Disposal; http://www.conserve-energy-22

future.com/dangers-and-effects-of-nuclear-waste-disposal.php

AVM Detonation can have severe consequences for the reconstruction process.

Credit: http://www.jmu.edu/cisr/journal/18.3/notes/rapillard.shtml

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Africa, Ukraine and Pakistan . 23

Ravaged by war, Afghanistan since the U.S. withdrawal has attempted to establish a number of re-development projects; including access to education and healthcare. Despite this, however, 4,800 AVMs are still active in Afghanistan, affecting 1688 communities with a cumulative population of 1.3m people . Although NGOs have been working to disarm active 24

mines in the country, many of these projects remain underfunded. Given that Afghanistan is largely an agrarian economy, explosions from AVMs have the potential to cut off access to agriculture and thereby food sources. Remote areas in Afghanistan have little access to victim assistance initiatives, and due to low literacy rates and poor communication services, few people are actually aware of the danger posed by AVMs . Exploded mines can also cut off 25

isolated communities from food supplies provided by the World Food Programme . The 26

Afghani village of Rabat during fighting between the Taliban and Northern Alliance had been completely evacuated due to the heavy number of anti-personnel and vehicle mines. Since the area has been cleared, however, re-development has been highly successful. Agricultural cooperatives have flourished in the village with help from the FAO, increasing access to food. More houses have also been built to rehouse those displaced by the conflict . 27

This indicates the positive impact demining as a disarmament process can have on the economic development of post-conflict states.

d. Small arms smuggling and intra-state violence

Much focus has been given so far to the consequences of inter-state conflict on development prospects. Despite this, many parts of the world are victims of internal state violence and terrorism, which undermines economic growth. The illicit arms trade in particular fuels this conflict, creating informal economic networks between distributors and buyers of illicit arms. Entire illegal economic networks exist outside the rule of law, cementing crime and violence as parts of everyday life within these states. In order to kick-start the development process in a number of third-world countries, citizens need to be re-integrated

GICHD, (2017), Anti-Vehicle Mine (AVM) Incidents; https://www.gichd.org/mine-action-topics/23

policy/anti-vehicle-mines-avm/#.WZRUpjtln6Y

SIPRI, (2014), The Humanitarian and Developmental Impact of Anti-Vehicle Mines, GICHD & 24

SIPRI; https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/AVM-study-Sep2014.pdf

MACCA, GICHD, University of Greenwich, (2011), Livelihood Analysis of Landmine Affected 25

Communities in Afghanistan, p.24; https://www.gichd.org/resources/publications/detail/publication/ livelihoods-analysis-of-landmine-affected-communities-in-afghanistan/#.WZRX3ztln6Y

SIPRI, (2014), op cit.26

MACCA, GICHD, University of Greenwich, op cit., p.4927

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into the economy and deterred from a life of crime. It is through the disarmament of the illicit small arms trade that this becomes possible.

Evidence has found that there are over 500m small arms in circulation around the world, one for every 12 people . A majority of legal arms production is based in the U.S. and 28

Russia , despite this, however, such weapons often fall into the hands of smugglers. Illegal 29

guns and artillery have the consequences of perpetuating conflict and violence within states. Liberia, for example, has been victim to a bloody 14 year long civil war as a consequence of illicit small arms being smuggled into the country. HIV/Aids rates in Liberia remained high due to poor access to healthcare . Conflict as a consequence of arms smuggling can 30

undermine public institutions and the rule of law. In turn, a cycle of instability and fragility is created, in which economic growth stagnates and development hindered . 31

The illicit arms trade ultimately stands as one of the darker consequences of globalisation. Attention ought to be made how the global illicit arms trade is sustained by the emergence of greater capital mobility, and offshore tax havens. Arms smugglers can much more easily set up illegal transactions through online banking, and then “cleanse” their profits through online money laundering services . At the 32

same, online web trafficking makes the sale and purchasing of illegal arms much easier. Since the fall of the Gadaffi regime in Libya, sales of guns online have boomed. Trading groups have been set up on social-media networks including Facebook, with many sellers dependent on the illicit arms trade as their sole source of income. In particular, evidence has been found that such online networks not only use social media to sell weapons, but also to recruit new members and

Muggah, R., (2003), Holding up development: the effects of small arms and light weapons in developing countries, 28

Peace News; https://www.peacenews.info/node/3912/holding-development-effects-small-arms-and-light-weapons-developing-countries

Amnesty International, (2016), Killer Facts: The scale of the global arms trade; https://29

www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/08/killer-facts-the-scale-of-the-global-arms-trade/

UN, (2006), Illicit Small Arms Trade in Africa Fuels Conflict, Contributes to Poverty, Stalls Development, Say 30

Speakers on Second Day of Un Review Conference; http://www.un.org/press/en/2006/dc3032.doc.htm

Small Arms Survey, (2017), Impact on Development; http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/de/armed-31

violence/social-and-economic-costs/impact-on-development.html

Malhotra, A., (2011), The Illicit Trade of Small Arms, Geopolitical Monitor; https://32

www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/the-illicit-trade-of-small-arms-4273/

The Illicit Arms trade hinders development Credit: http://www.ibtimes.com/nigeria-battles-illicit-small-arms-russians-cross-hairs-1099962

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distribute arms to terrorist and militia groups based in Libya and other parts of North Africa . The number of weapons illegally seized in Libya since 2011 often make their way 33

into other parts of Africa through smuggling networks. Ultimately this highlights the importance of two things. Firstly, the need for effective small arms disarmament procedures after a regime change in order to ensure stability. Secondly, the need to understand disarmament and development as a globally interconnected process, as a failure to dismantle weaponry in one country could lead to conflict and underdevelopment in another.

4. Recent UN Action/Documents

1987 – International Conference on the Relationship between Disarmament and Development 34

The most comprehensive discussion of the topic, this ought to be the first document DISEC delegates read on the matter. Disarmament and development although defined as a mutually reinforcing process, acknowledged that both should be pursued independently, regardless of progress in the other. ManMUN will provide an opportunity to reflect upon, and update the report 30 years after it was passed.

2004 – The Relationship between disarmament and development in the current international context 35

The document hoped to provide an update to the discussion after 1987, focusing on the role globalisation has played since. New emphasis was given to the importance of security, and how development in educational, humanitarian and ecological sectors can enhance security which in turn reduces the likelihood of conflict.

2005 – A/RES/60/68 : Consequences of the illicit arms trade on development 36

Jenzen-Jones, N.R. & McCollum, I., (2017), Web Trafficking: Analyzing the Online Trade of Small 33

Arms and Light Weapons in Libya, Small Arms Survey, p.32; http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/F-Working-papers/SAS-SANA-WP26-Libya-web-trafficking.pdf

UN, (1987), International Conference on the Relationship between Disarmament and 34

Development, New York; https://disarmament-library.un.org/UNODA/Library.nsf/96d5a6bbca98158d85256c36007b1428/a4d781c62696bbea8525788c006e43b2/$FILE/Final%20Document.pdf

UN, (2004), The Relationship between disarmament and development in the current international 35

context, New York; https://unoda-web.s3-accelerate.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/assets/HomePage/ODAPublications/DisarmamentStudySeries/PDF/DSS_31.pdf

UN, (2005), A/RES/60/68; https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/36

N05/491/68/PDF/N0549168.pdf ?OpenElement

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Recommendations were made to tackle the illicit arms trade, such as increased regulation and disposal of small arms. The U.S. was the only member to vote against.

2006- A/RES/61/64 : The Relationship of Disarmament and Development 37

This resolution encouraged states to invest more in social/developmental programmes, however, little concrete discussion can be seen on issues relating to disarmament and development. Despite this, the U.S. was the only state to vote against, with Israel abstaining.

2008 – A/RES/63/36: Prohibition of the development and manufacture of new types of weapons of mass destruction and new systems of such weapons 38

A resolution condemning the production of nuclear and biological weaponry. Again, Israel abstained and the U.S. voted against/

2015 – A/RES/70/32 : The Relationship of Disarmament and Development 39

This short resolution emphasised how the international community has changed since 1987 and called for regional/sub-regional organisations to incorporate the discussion of disarmament and development into their agendas.

2016 – A/RES/71/77: United Nations Regional Centre for Peace, Disarmament and Development in Latin America 40

Proposed by Peru on behalf of South American members, the resolution praises work made by the aforementioned regional body in confidence building measures as well as the establishment of a nuclear-free zone.

5. Bloc Positions

UN, (2006), A/RES/61/64; https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/37

N06/498/27/PDF/N0649827.pdf ?OpenElement

UN, (2008), A/RES/63/36; https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/38

N08/472/95/PDF/N0847295.pdf ?OpenElement

UN, (2015), A/RES/70/32; http://undocs.org/A/RES/70/3239

UN, (2016), A/RES/71/77; https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/40

N16/424/06/PDF/N1642406.pdf ?OpenElement

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a. North America

As The United States possesses the largest military of any state and is the biggest exporter of arms globally, it is unlikely to support resolutions condemning militarization and the military-industrial complex. In the past, The U.S. has consistently opposed resolutions on opposition to the illicit arms trade and the prohibition of nuclear technology . Washington 41

has expressed support however for a nuclear-free world and in compliance with the New START Treaty, hopes to see reductions in ballistic missile stockpiles by 2018 . This seemingly 42

contradictory position can be simplified by understanding that the U.S. wants to maintain its own military stockpile for deterrence, whilst seeing reductions in the military capabilities of its potential rivals.

Canada although a keen provider of humanitarian assistance, has remained absent from talks on nuclear disarmament in recent months . Mexico, on the other hand, has 43

significant problems with illicit arms smuggling. A majority of these guns have their origin in The U.S., and end up funding criminal activities in Mexico or are smuggled further down into Guatemala and South America . 44

b. Europe

The European Union has been keen to campaign in favour of disarmament and the crackdown on the illicit arms trade. The European Parliament and Commission have consistently underlined the humanitarian and socio-economic consequences of the small arms trade in third world countries. The Instrument Contributing to Stability and Peace is 45

the EU’s main programme for technical and financial support to third-world countries facing problems in relation to illegal arms smuggling. The EU has been an advocate for dialogue and discussion with countries struggling with the illicit arms trade. In 2014 the EU ratified the

See Page Nine41

NTI, (2017), Nuclear Disarmament United States; http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/united-42

states-nuclear-disarmament/

CBC, (2017), Canada’s absence from nuclear weapon ban; http://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/43

the-current-for-march-28-2017-1.4042750/canada-s-absence-from-un-nuclear-weapon-ban-negotiations-unacceptable-says-advocate-1.4042752

Chappell, B., (2016), In Mexico, Tens of Thousands of Illegal Guns Come From the U.S., NPR; 44

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/01/12/462781469/in-mexico-tens-of-thousands-of-illegal-guns-come-from-the-u-s

FPI, (2016), Instrument contributing to Stability and Peace*, preventing conflict around the world, 45

European Union; http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/fpi/what-we-do/instrument_contributing_to_stability_and_peace_en.htm

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UN Firearms Protocol, making it legally binding for all EU member states . Despite this, as 46

many European members are also members of NATO, European delegates should consider how they will balance their NATO commitment to spend 2% of their GDP on defence, whilst also encouraging disarmament.

c. South America

Much like the EU, South America has pushed consistently for reform on the illicit arms trade and disarmament. The UN Regional Centre for Peace, Disarmament and Development in Latin America has worked hard to build confidence building measures between South American states in order to foster regional security . South American nations 47

have repeatedly put forward resolutions on disarmament and development, with cooperation being guided by the aforementioned regional centre.

d. Africa

African nations are evidence of how disarmament and development are so intimately related. Rampant gun smuggling flowing out of Libya has perpetuated violence in West Africa and the Sahara-Maghreb region. As of such, African states see it is as their top priority to tackle the illicit arms trade and quell internal violence in order to begin the development process. Although African states have often been strong voices for disarmament, many despite being unable to afford military projects, continue to spend money on weapons to maintain internal order against non-state militias. As of such, increased focus needs to be given to tackle internal violence for the disarmament process to continue in Africa.

e. Militarizing states

For the sake of this guide, it is quite easy to group together a number of states who are keen to maintain high military spending whether they have development problems or not. Russia and China are the second biggest exporters of arms after America, and thus profit significantly off the global arms trade . Furthermore, states like India and Saudi Arabia are 48

high importers of weapons, despite both countries facing socio-economic development

European Parliament, (2015), Illicit small and light weapons: International and EU Action, 46

European Parliamentary Research Service, p.20; http://www.europarl.europa.eu/ RegData/etudes/IDAN/2015/565869/EPRS_IDA(2015)565869_EN.pdf

See; UNLIREC; http://www.unlirec.org/qhacemos_eng.aspx47

Sheffield, H., (2016), Arms trade: One chart that shows the biggest weapons exporters of the last 48

five years, The Independent; http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/arms-trade-exporters-importers-weapons-transfers-sipri-a6891491.html

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problems respectively . For delegates who represent these countries, it is important to 49

appreciate why these states maintain high spending. Generally, most are neighbours to rival states or are worried about their security in the face of geopolitical struggles. Russia, for example, is anxious over NATO expansion, whilst India has ongoing troubles with Pakistan. As of such, it is important to dissect and disseminate these causes in order to understand and articulate your countries position effectively.

6. Questions for Delegates to Consider

• How do disarmament and development relate to security?

• Does economic growth have a position or negative impact on disarmament/conflict? Is the relationship more nuanced than this?

• What impact do nuclear weapons have on development?

• How can the dismantling/disposal of weapons be guaranteed after regime change? This particularly applies to Libya.

• What measures can be taken to combat the illicit arms trade?

• Do regional organisations like the EU play an important role in addressing the issue?

• How can the dismantling of anti-vehicle mines in post conflict areas be ensured?

Other possible issues to explore:

• The impact of biological/chemical weapons on development

• The role of drone strikes in relation to the topic

• The consequences of terrorism

• How man-made famines in areas like Darfur impact development prospects

ibid.49

15

Topic B: Ensuring a Nuclear Free Middle East

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1. Introduction

The introduction of a nuclear weapon free zone is a regional approach to strengthen global nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament norms, and also to consolidate international efforts towards peace and security. Nuclear weapon free zones aim to eradicate nuclear weapons from territories while complementing efforts to delegitimize or contain weapons in territories that lie outside the boundaries of the zone. The concept of a zone free of nuclear weapons has been crucial in the creation of disarmament and reduction of regional conflict.

A nuclear-weapon free zone was first suggested by the Polish Foreign Minister Adam Rapacki at the United Nations General Assembly, way back in October 1957, and it has since become an important concept in disarmament and maintenance of world peace. A nuclear weapon 50

free zone in the middle east has always been a long-debated topic, mainly due to the fear of the emergence of a nuclear arms race in the region as a consequence of complex conflicts in the region. With Iran’s nuclear programs and Israel’s nuclear policies, the establishment of a nuclear weapon free zone is seen as vital. It is said to be a peaceful way of settling of issues in the region and providing security. Every year, there is a proposal for the creation of a nuclear weapon free zone in the middle east and is always passed with a unanimous vote . Regardless 51

of the many resolutions of the establishment of such a zone in the Middle East being passed, it is yet to yield any significant results.

Definition of a nuclear weapon free zone, as per the United Nations General Assembly is in resolution 3472 B (1975):

Any zone recognized as such by the General Assembly of the United Nations, which any group of States, in the free exercises of their sovereignty, has established by virtue of a treaty

or convention whereby: a) The statute of total absence of nuclear weapons to which the zone shall be subject,

including the procedure for the delimitation of the zone, is defined; b) An international system of verification and control is established to guarantee

compliance with the obligations deriving from that statute.

UNODA., (2017), Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zones: https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/50

nwfz/.

Federation of American Scientists ., (2013), Middle East Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone: https://51

fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/ArmsControl_NEW/nonproliferation/NFZ/NP-NFZ-ME.html

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2. History

The Middle East is a geographical region that is located in the bridge connecting the continents Europe, Asia and Africa. Since the second world war, this region has been 52

riddled with conflicts, making the creation of such a zone vital. The beginning of the Arab Spring also makes the establishment of a nuclear free zone even more important, as the wave of uprisings and revolutions in the Middle East during 2011 have undermined stability and security within and between Middle Eastern states.

Since the 1990s, when Egypt first presented its resolution to the UN General Assembly advocating for the creation of the zone, the country has been a very strong supporter of the establishment of the nuclear weapon free zone in the middle east. This resolution also opened the doors to the long talks and negotiations regarding the setting up of the zone, which continues today . Egypt and other countries have always put pressure on the other Middle 53

Eastern states to establish a nuclear weapon free zone, mainly to tackle the ever-growing interest of the Israeli government in developing its nuclear weapon programs and its ambiguous nuclear policies.

The UN Security Resolution 687 recognised the establishment of the “Middle Eastern Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone” (MENWFZ) as a goal. On 9th Dec 1975, the UN passed a resolution (3236), calling for a MENWFZ. In 1975 for the first time, an agenda for the establishment of such a zone was acknowledged by the United Nations. There have been many more resolutions passed since that period.

The hazards of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East has existed since Israel developed its ‘bomb in the basement’ and was widely discussed in the early 1980s after the Israeli forces destroyed the French-built nuclear reactor near Baghdad in June 19811. 54

3. Current Situation and Conflicts in the Middle East

The Middle East is a conflict prone zone, and it is important, when considering to establish a Nuclear Weapon Free Zone, to understand some of the conflicts that are currently present.

a. Israeli/Iranian Tensions:

Kublin, H., (2017), Background: Middle East: https://www.scholastic.com/teachers/articles/52

teaching-content/background-middle-east/

Taylor, NAJ., (2013), The Middle East Needs A To Be A Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone: 53

www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2013/01/2013141248927573.html

Wadlow, R., (2013). A Middle East Nuclear-Weapon Free Zone: http://www.federalist-debate.org/54

index.php/current/item/820-a-middle-east-nuclear-weapon-free-zone

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Iran and Israel were close allies from the beginning of the birth of Israel. Their alliance lasted till the 1979 revolution that saw a change of government for the state of Iran. Since then, their relationship has been strained and they have been at war with each other indirectly. From the 1990s onwards the Iranian government funded a Palestinian Islamic Jihadi group and began training Palestinians at the barracks outside Tehran. They also engaged in a proxy war concerning Hezbollah, with Iran backing Hezbollah and their forces against Israel. In 2006, the Hezbollah guerrillas attacked Israeli patrol, while seizing two of their soldiers. Their tension reached an all-time high in 2010, with the reports of Iran’s suspected pursuit of nuclear weapon capabilities and its rhetoric . Most recently, both the states have engaged in 55

a proxy war in Syria. 56

b. Arab/Israeli Tensions:

A common myth regarding the Israeli/Palestine conflict is that they are disputes that have gone on for thousands of years, having their roots in biblical texts. Instead, however, contemporary conflicts between both Israel, Palestine and its Arab neighbours began only one hundred years ago. When the Ottomans ruled the Eastern Mediterranean, both Muslims, Christians and the small number of Jews in the area lived relatively peacefully. Over time, however, Arabs began to develop a sense of national identity as Palestinians, later referred to as “Arab Nationalism”. At the same time, as Jews faced persecution in Europe in the early 20th century, Zionism, the call for an independent Jewish state of Israel, becomes more and more popular with Jews in the area. Subsequently, after the fall of the Ottomans at the end of the First World War, Britain and France divided the Middle East, with Britain claiming modern day Israel. As tensions between Arab Nationalists and Zionists begin to grow, Britain passes the territory to the UN at the end of the Second World War. The newly formed United Nations in 1948 divides the territory on ethnic/religious lines, with Israel providing an independent Jewish state for the Zionists, and Palestine as a free state for Arab Nationalists. However, many Arab neighbours view the UN ruling as

Simon, S., (2010), Iran and Isreal: http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/iran-and-israel 55

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/may/28/syria-army-iran-forces

Dehghan, S., (2012), Syrian army being aided by Iranian forces: https://www.theguardian.com/56

world/2012/may/28/syria-army-iran-forces

Border Changes between Israel/Palestine Credit: http://www.globalresearch.ca/facts-all-us-citizens-need-to-know-about-israel-and-palestine/

5391043

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imperialistic given that the number of Arabs in the area far outweighs the number of Jews. Arab Nations invade in 1948 to unite the territory under Palestinian rule . They are 57

unsuccessful, however, and Israel expands its territory significantly, overstepping the UN ruling. The expansion of Israeli territory, therefore, is why Arab states have bad relations with Israel. At the same time, Israel is surrounded by potential enemies and will take necessary steps to protect itself against foreign invaders.

The Israeli nuclear program, therefore, is an insurance policy against a possible united Arab invasion. Given that Israel is surrounded by enemies who have invaded the state since its independence, Israel is unlikely to give up nuclear weapons which ensure the security of the country. Therefore, Israel has always called for peace agreements to be a pre-requisite to the establishment of a nuclear free zone and not the other way around . 58

c. Iranian/ Arab Relations

Iran and Saudi Arabia have no diplomatic relations with each other. They have never officially declared war on each other but have always engaged in proxy wars. Their war is known as a cold war and is said to have had devastating impacts on countries involved. Both the countries, rich in oil, want to gain influence over the region. The main tension started after the 1979 revolution where the Shah government in Iran was overthrown. The revolution posed a threat to the monarchy in Saudi Arabia as Iran began helping other Shia groups overthrow governments in their states. Fundamentally, therefore, the opposition between both countries stems from their antithetical political systems; a monarchy and a revolutionary state.

Tensions have come to a high point over Iraq. Iraq is vital to both Saudi Arabia and Iran as it acts as a buffer state between the two countries. While Iraq invaded Iran, Saudi Arabia provided Iraq with money and logistics. The recent civil war in Iraq has seen both Saudi Arabia and Iran fund Sunni and Shia militant groups respectively. Iraq, however, is not the only proxy war in the region, with Saudi Arabia and Iran funding opposing sides in both Yemen and Syria . 59

Recently in Tehran, ISIL militants committed a terrorist attack. Following that, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement blaming Saudi Arabia for this. The Saudi

The Editors of Encyclopædia Britannica., (2008), Arab-Isreali wars: https://www.britannica.com/57

event/Arab-Israeli-wars

Arms Control Association., (2017), Middle East Weapon of Mass Destruction Free Zone: https://58

www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/mewmdfz

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veMFCFyOwFI 59

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Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir, however, issued a statement saying there was no evidence to 60

link Saudi Arabia to the attack. Iranian official Hossein Amir-Abdollahian later claimed Saudi Arabia is the prime suspect behind the Tehran attacks . Iranian Ayatollah Khamenei 61

accused the USA of having created the Islamic state, and they joined Saudi Arabia in financing the this, and other such organizations . 62

The potential development of nuclear weapons in Iran, therefore, is a pressing issue for the Gulf Arab states. If Iran were to develop nuclear weapons, this would mean the Middle East would plummet into an arms race between its largest powers: Israel, Iran and Saudi Arabia. In order to avert this, increased attention needs to be given to establishing a Nuclear Weapon Free Zone.

d. Insights into nuclear tensions in the Middle East

Jeffrey Helsing, the associate Vice President of USIPs academy, has stated that:

“Even with the end of the Cold War, many of the same problems have continued in the region or have actually gotten worse. Despite the turnover of a few leaders, little change has occurred politically within most Arab societies and their governmental systems. Religious fundamentalism remains strong within the region, often continuing its broad-based appeal to many disenfranchised or disaffected sectors of society. This reflects a growing divide between the haves and have-nots in society. In addition, the scarcity of natural resources such as water, arable land, and the pressures of high population growth increase the risks of conflict, both within countries and between them. Finally, on top of each of these issues, one must impose the fundamental conflict that still exists between Arab nationalism and Zionism, as well as the competing claims for the same land among Palestinians and Israelis”.

It was said that one of the ways to establish security in the region is with the creation of the Middle East Nuclear Weapon Free Zone. 63

Press TV., (2017), Saudi Arabia prime suspect in Tehran attacks: Iranian official: http://60

www.presstv.com/Detail/2017/06/14/525248/Iran-Hossein-AmirAbdollahian-Saudi-Arabia-prime-suspect-Tehran-attacks

Karimi, N., (2017), Iran leaders accuse US, Saudis of supporting Tehran attacks: https://61

apnews.com/3a2699f2ff484571b867c1f58b7a34a7/Iran-leaders-accuse-US,-Saudis-of-supporting-Tehran-attacks

Osborne, S., (2017), US ‘created Isis’ and its war on the terrorists is 'a lie', says Iran's Supreme 62

Leader: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/us-isis-ayatollah-khamenei-iran-saudi-arabia-islamic-state-terrorism-sunni-militants-a7787016.html

Wadlow, R., (2013). A Middle East Nuclear-Weapon Free Zone: http://www.federalist-debate.org/63

index.php/current/item/820-a-middle-east-nuclear-weapon-free-zone

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Mohamed El Baradei, the former Director of UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), called Iran and Israel to enter serious negotiations to create a Nuclear-Weapon Free Zone in the Middle East. He stated that:

“This is the last chance to build security in the Middle East based on trust and cooperation and not on the possession of nuclear weapons. A peace agreement between Israel and its Arab neighbors must be reached in parallel with a security agreement in the region based on ridding the area of all weapons of mass destruction”. 64

This kind of zone would help strengthen the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and would help promote nuclear disarmament and help establish peace in the Middle East. In 2010, there was a resolution formulated by the treaty parties at the 2010 NPT review conference. This resolution called for the establishment of MENWFZ and called upon the implementation of the 1995 resolution. It also singled out Israel for its lack of cooperation with the negotiations . 65

Existing Nuclear weapon free zones in the world : 66

There already are some nuclear weapon free zones in the world. The following section will discuss them.

a.The 1996 Afr i can Nuc lear Weapon-Free Zone Treaty 67

The topic of a nuclear weapon free zone in the area started when the Organization of African Unity stated its interest in the establishment of such a zone in 1964. This was to

Wadlow, R., (2013). A Middle East Nuclear-Weapon Free Zone: http://www.federalist-debate.org/64

index.php/current/item/820-a-middle-east-nuclear-weapon-free-zone

United Nations., (2010), Final Documents of the 2010 NPT Review Conference: http://65

www.un.org/en/conf/npt/2010/

UNODA., (2010), Nuclear-Weapon-Free Areas: https://unoda-web.s3-accelerate.amazonaws.com/66

wp-content/uploads/assets/WMD/Nuclear/pdf/NWFZ-postcard-2010.pdf

James Martin Center., (2017), African Nuclear-Weapon-Free-Zone (Anwfz) Treaty (Pelindaba 67

Treaty: https://www.iaea.org/publications/documents/treaties/african-nuclear-weapon-free-zone-treaty-pelindaba-treaty

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combat the French testing in the Saharan region, and the growing interest of nuclear weapons for security by the apartheid regime in South Africa. The Treaty of Pelindaba was signed in 1997 and came into effect in 2009. All states in Africa are eligible to be part of the resolution. In 1996, no African Arab state was willing to ratify the treaty until Israel gave up its nuclear weapon program. Algeria, Libya and Mauritius have ratified their treaty since then.

b. The 1967 Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America and the Caribbean 68

French nuclear weapon testing in the Sahara in the 1960s and the South African apartheid regime’s interest in nuclear arms, led the African states to issue a call for an African NWFZ, which was endorsed by the UN General Assembly in 1961. Brazil was the only Latin American state, at that time, that supported the African NWFZ resolution and proposed a similar zone within its region. The treaty of Tlatelolco is a treaty was passed and signed on the 14th of Feb 1967, and came into force on the 24th of Feb 1969. It was proposed by Costa Rica at an OAS meeting, as other proposals within the OAS regarding this had not been successful. The treaty covers the whole of the Latin American and Caribbean region, including sections of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, with all the 33 states in the region having signed and ratified the treaty.

c. The 1985 South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty 69

Following the nuclear denotation in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the concern over the issue of nuclear weapons grew in the Asian Pacific region. The South Pacific Forum took up the issue in 1975 after New Zealand proposed the formation of a Nuclear Weapon Free Zone. The same year, UNGA endorsed the resolution. The Treaty of Rarotonga was opened for signature on the 6th of August, 1985, but entered into force on the 11th of December 1986.

d. The 1995 Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty 70

James Martin Center., (2017), Treaty For The Prohibition Of Nuclear Weapons In Latin America 68

And The Caribbean (Lanwfz) (Tlatelolco Treaty): http://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/treaty-prohibition-nuclear-weapons-latin-america-and-caribbean-lanwfz-tlatelolco-treaty/

James Martin Center., (2017), South Pacific Nuclear-Free Zone (Spnfz) Treaty of Rarotonga: 69

http://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/south-pacific-nuclear-free-zone-spnfz-treaty-rarotonga/

James Martin Center., (2017), SOUTHEAST ASIAN NUCLEAR-WEAPON-FREE-ZONE 70

(SEANWFZ) TREATY (BANGKOK TREATY): http://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/southeast-asian-nuclear-weapon-free-zone-seanwfz-treaty-bangkok-treaty/

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On the 27th of November 1971, the original 5 members of ASEAN signed the Declaration of an ASEAN zone of peace, freedom and neutrality in Kuala Lumpur. A major component of this was to establish a Nuclear Weapon Free Zone in the region. With about 10 years of negotiation, the Treaty of Bangkok was signed on the 15th of December 1995 and entered into force on the 28th March 1997.

e. The 2006 Treaty on a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone in Central Asia 71

The initiative started with Mongolia stating its goal to become a one-state nuclear weapon free zone in 1992. Mongolia also called for the establishment of a regional Nuclear weapon free zone. The first proposal was in 1993 to the UNGA. The treaty of Semipalatinsk was formed in 8th September 2006 and entered force in 2009. It has been signed and ratified by 5 states.

Guidelines for the creation of a Nuclear Weapon Free Zone : 72

In its 1999 report, the United Nations Disarmament Commission set out a few guidelines regarding the establishment of such a zone.

• Nuclear-weapon-free zones should be established on the basis of arrangements freely arrived at among the States of the region concerned.

• The initiative to establish a nuclear-weapon-free zone should emanate exclusively from States within the region concerned and be pursued by all States of that region.

• The nuclear-weapon States should be consulted during the negotiations of each treaty and its relevant protocol(s) establishing a nuclear-weapon-free zone in order to facilitate their signature and ratification of the relevant protocol(s) to the treaty, through which they undertake legally binding commitments to the status of the zone and not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against States of the treaty.

• A nuclear-weapon-free zone should not prevent the use of nuclear science and technology for peaceful purposes. The treaties could also promote the peaceful use of

James Martin Center., (2017), CENTRAL ASIA NUCLEAR-WEAPON-FREE-ZONE 71

(CANWFZ): http://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/central-asia-nuclear-weapon-free-zone-canwz/

UNODA., (2016), Nuclear Weapon Free Zones Fact Sheet: https://unoda-72

web.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/NWFZs-Fact-Sheet-Jan2016.pdf

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nuclear energy in the zone, in support of socio-economic, scientific and technological development. 73

Timeline of some important dates 74

• 1975: The goal of setting up a middle east nuclear weapon free zone was established.

• 1980: the goals for supporting a NWFZ was passed in the UNGA

• 1989: IAEA report on the application of safeguards in the middle east

• 1990: Egypt proposal for the establishment of WMDFZ

• 1991: IAEA resolution, now passed on an annual basis without objection.

• 1991: UNSC resolution 687

• 1992: ARCS discussion. Talks places indefinitely on hold.

• 1995: resolution calling for a MENWFZ

• 2000: NPT review, re-endorsing 1995 resolution.

• 2010: the 5-step plan towards the establishment of the MENWFZ

• 2012: The Helsinki conference was supposed to take place but was pushed back by the USA due to lack of agreement amongst the concerned states.

• 2015: NPT draft document on the preparations for a conference to establish such a zone in the middle east.

Bloc Positions:

a. Israel:

Israel has an ambiguous policy regarding its nuclear weapons program. Israel does not confirm or deny having nuclear weapons, but experts suggest Israel has approximately 80 nuclear missiles . Israel’s nuclear programs ultimately remains as an insurance policy against 75

its hostile neighbours, and although signing several treaties, such as the Comprehensive

United Nations, (2000), Report of the Disarmament Commission: http://www.un.org/documents/73

ga/docs/55/a5542supp.pdf

Arms Control Association., (2017), Middle East Weapon of Mass Destruction Free Zone: https://74

www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/mewmdfz

Mizokami, K., (2017), The World’s Most Mysterious Nuclear Weapons Program, The 75

National Interest; http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the- worlds-most- mysterious-nuclear-weapons- program-its- not-20198

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Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, it has yet to ratify it. The threat of an Iranian nuclear weapons program worries Israel however, and Israeli policy-makers are split over a course of action against Iran . Isolated against potential enemies, it is unlikely Israel will give up its weapons 76

anytime soon.

b. Egypt

Although pursuing a vast ballistic and biological weapons program, Egypt has worked towards a nuclear free Middle East. Egypt is the leading proponent of the zone in the Middle East . Israel and Egypt continually approach discussions over a nuclear free Middle East with 77

different policy objectives. Contestation over the issue reflects a contestation of rival powers for dominance in the region, which is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

c. Gulf States:

Sunni Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Jordan worry over the possibility of a growing arms race in the Middle East. Although diplomatic relations between Israel and the Gulf states are poor, both blocs are united in their opposition to an Iranian nuclear weapons program. The recent Iranian Nuclear Weapons deal did not reassure Arab states, as Arab leaders are not convinced that Iran’s intentions are peaceful . Given that both Saudi Arabia 78

and the UAE are heavily militarizing, the potential consequences of an Iranian nuclear weapons program could be devastating.

Recently this year, Qatar has urged for the establishment of the zone and stressed its importance with the recent international situation. Sheik Ali bin Jassim states that “with (many) international and regional crises posing many challenges” and with the increased importance of nuclear weapons in the military for security, the creation of such a zone is critical.

d. Iran:

Despite being a signatory to the NPT, Iran’s nuclear program has led to political tensions across the Middle East. Although the Iranian government claims its nuclear program is for energy and thereby “peaceful” purposes, neither the Gulf states or Israel seem convinced. Furthermore, internal divisions have grown over the program due to increasingly heavy

NTI, (2017), Israel; http://www.nti.org/learn/countries/israel/nuclear/76

NTI, (2014), Egypt; http://www.nti.org/learn/countries/egypt/nuclear/77

Manfreda, P., (2017), Middle East Countries with Nuclear Weapons; 78

https://www.thoughtco.com/middle-east- countries-with- nuclear-weapons- 2353423

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sanctions from greater powers. This means that Iran takes a cautious approach, so called “nuclear hedging”. Given that Iran is surrounded by nuclear powers, it hopes to keep the possibility of a nuclear weapons program open if it needs it, whilst avoiding escalating tensions with Saudi Arabia. 79

e. Nuclear Power States

Although the Obama administration was keen to negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran in order to limit the Iranian nuclear weapons program, Trump has been critical of the issue . Trump 80

has aligned himself with the Sunni-Gulf states and Israel in opposition to the development of Iranian weapons. Although Trump is ambivalent about the deal, Washington has been keen to strictly enforce regulations on Iran as part of the deal, in order to prevent the development of Iranian weapons of mass destruction.

The UK unlike the US is not only more enthusiastic about the nuclear deal but has condemned the Israeli settlers in Palestine . Despite this, the UK has acknowledged the 81

destabilizing effect Iran has had in the region, and thus aligns itself with the Sunni states and Israel. These sentiments are also echoed by France, who also supports Israeli security . Russia 82

too acknowledges that although it has supplied Iran with arms, the implications of nuclear conflict in the region are disastrous for maintaining Moscow’s influence. As of such, Moscow has been willing to maintain dialogue with both Iran and Israel as it acknowledges them as key players in the region . China believes that nuclear proliferation in the Middle East is a 83

consequence of a failed peace process between Middle Eastern states. China recommends

Chubin, S., (2017), The Politics of Iran’s Nuclear Program, The Iran Primer; 79

http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/politics-irans- nuclear-program

Baker, P., (2017), Trump Rectifies Iran Nuclear Deal, but Only Reluctantly, The New York Times; 80

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/17/us/politics/trump-iran- nuclear-deal-recertify.html?mcubz=3

GOV, (2017), PM Meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu:6 th February 2017; 81

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-meeting- with-israeli- prime-minister-netanyahu-6-february-2017

Eytan, F., (2015), France’s Position on Emerging Nuclear Agreement with Iran; 82

http://jcpa.org/article/frances-position- nuclear-iran/

Erad, O., Magen, Z., Guzansky, Y., (2015), Russian Nuclear Diplomacy in the Middle East,The 83

Institute for National Security Studies; http://www.inss.org.il/publication/russian-nuclear-diplomacy- in-the- middle-east/

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that in order to achieve disarmament, an ongoing process of reconciliation should begin between Israel, Iran and Sunni states over territorial disputes. 84

Questions for Delegates to Consider

1. How would the establishment of the Nuclear Weapon Free Zone happen?

2. How and where would be negotiation take place?

3. What would be the terms of the Nuclear Weapon Free Zone? Would it include development and research of nuclear powers, or just focus on the development of nuclear weapons?

4. What would be the boundaries of the zone be? Would Turkey be part of the Middle East Nuclear Weapon Free Zone, and how would that effect its membership in the NATO?

5. How would the establishment of the zones be funded?

6. What would happen to the nuclear weapons in the area? How would they be disposed?

7. How would a continued commitment to such a zone be achieved?

Recommended Reading:

2016 Resolution on the risk of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East: http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/RES/71/83

2016 Resolution on the establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the region of the middle east: http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/RES/71/29

An article on the approach to middle east free of WMD: http://carnegieendowment.org/2016/07/07/realistic-approach-toward-middle-east-free-of-wmd-pub-64039

United Nations conference to negotiate a legally-binding instrument to prohibit nuclear weapons: Second session: https://s3.amazonaws.com/unoda-web/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/A.Conf_.229.2017.L.3.Rev_.1.pdf

Issues in the Middle East: http://www.slideserve.com/RoyLauris/powerpoint-ppt-file

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, (2005), Steps to advance 84

Middle East Peace Process; http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjb_663304/zzjg_663340/jks_665232/kjfywj_665252/t196479.shtml

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Treaty on the South-East Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone: http://asean.org/?static_post=treaty-on-the-southeast-asia-nuclear-weapon-free-zone

Documents on NPT review conference: http://www.un.org/en/conf/npt/2010/

The African Nuclear Weapon-Free-Zone Treaty: https://www.iaea.org/publications/documents/treaties/african-nuclear-weapon-free-zone-treaty-pelindaba-treaty

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