digital twin: mitigating unpredictable, undesirable ......digital twin model. 6. data. information....
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Digital Twin: Mitigating Unpredictable, Undesirable ......Digital Twin Model. 6. Data. Information. 100100100111010110110001110001 010. 001011011111001100101110100000 000. 111010110001000111010101000001](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081616/5fe9d75637cef300dc4a55dc/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
The image part with relationship ID rId26 was not found in the file.
Digital Twin: Mitigating Unpredictable, Undesirable Emergent Behavior in
Complex Systems
Dr. Michael GrievesFlorida Institute of Technology
Center for Advanced Manufacturing and Innovative Design (CAMID)
![Page 2: Digital Twin: Mitigating Unpredictable, Undesirable ......Digital Twin Model. 6. Data. Information. 100100100111010110110001110001 010. 001011011111001100101110100000 000. 111010110001000111010101000001](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081616/5fe9d75637cef300dc4a55dc/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
The image part with relationship ID rId26 was not found in the file.
AIAA – CASEComplex Aerospace Systems Exchange
![Page 3: Digital Twin: Mitigating Unpredictable, Undesirable ......Digital Twin Model. 6. Data. Information. 100100100111010110110001110001 010. 001011011111001100101110100000 000. 111010110001000111010101000001](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081616/5fe9d75637cef300dc4a55dc/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
The image part with relationship ID rId26 was not found in the file.
Problem with Metaphors
• Glosses over substantive differences between source and target domains
• Hinders work on detail execution issues• Leads to misleading assumptions• Assumes that everyone has same
cognitive framework
![Page 4: Digital Twin: Mitigating Unpredictable, Undesirable ......Digital Twin Model. 6. Data. Information. 100100100111010110110001110001 010. 001011011111001100101110100000 000. 111010110001000111010101000001](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081616/5fe9d75637cef300dc4a55dc/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
The image part with relationship ID rId26 was not found in the file.
Categories of System BehaviorSystem Behavior
Predicted Behavior Unpredicted Behavior
PredictedDesirable
(PD)
UnpredictedDesirable
(UD)
PredictedUndesirable
(UU)
UnpredictedUndesirable
(UU)
Figure 1
![Page 5: Digital Twin: Mitigating Unpredictable, Undesirable ......Digital Twin Model. 6. Data. Information. 100100100111010110110001110001 010. 001011011111001100101110100000 000. 111010110001000111010101000001](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081616/5fe9d75637cef300dc4a55dc/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
The image part with relationship ID rId26 was not found in the file.
Creation
Product Lifecycle – 4 PhasesProduction
Disposal
Operations
Figure 2
![Page 6: Digital Twin: Mitigating Unpredictable, Undesirable ......Digital Twin Model. 6. Data. Information. 100100100111010110110001110001 010. 001011011111001100101110100000 000. 111010110001000111010101000001](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081616/5fe9d75637cef300dc4a55dc/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
The image part with relationship ID rId26 was not found in the file.
Digital Twin Model
6
Data
Information
100100100111010110110001110001010001011011111001100101110100000000111010110001000111010101000001001000010100011110000111000101000001010000010000010100001010101010101100011010101110000110010101011100011000011111000001110010101010000100000101000000001000000100000001100000111000001111000111000000111100001010110000111100010101000000011111100001101010000011100001110011110000101010101000000111000011000010001101110100001001000010101000010101011110001111000001010110011110010100001110000110000100000010000000000111000011100000111111100011010101000010000011111001101010101000110111010000100001000001001011001000000100000001111100000010000001110000100001001000001000011100111100001000011100101010110011000010000011111100101010101101Virtual SpacePhysical Space
Digital Thread
Digital TwinEnvironment
![Page 7: Digital Twin: Mitigating Unpredictable, Undesirable ......Digital Twin Model. 6. Data. Information. 100100100111010110110001110001 010. 001011011111001100101110100000 000. 111010110001000111010101000001](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081616/5fe9d75637cef300dc4a55dc/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
The image part with relationship ID rId26 was not found in the file.
Per
ProductEngineering
ManufacturingEngineering
Manufacturing
Operations
ConceptEngineering
RequirementsDecommissioning
100100100111010110110001110001010001011011111001100101110100000000111010110001000111010101000001001000010100011110000111000101000001010000010000010100001010101010101100011010101110000110010101011100011000011111000001110010101010000100000101000000001000000100000001100000111000001111000111000000111100001010110000111100010101000000011111100001101010000011100001110011110000101010101000000111000011000010001101110100001001000010101000010101011110001111000001010110011110010100001110000110000100000010000000000111000011100000111111100011010101000010000011111001101010101000110111010000100001000001001011001000000100000001111100000010000001110000100001001000001000011100111100001000011100101010110011000010000011111100101010101101
Digital Twin Through the Lifecycle
Perceived Value
![Page 8: Digital Twin: Mitigating Unpredictable, Undesirable ......Digital Twin Model. 6. Data. Information. 100100100111010110110001110001 010. 001011011111001100101110100000 000. 111010110001000111010101000001](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081616/5fe9d75637cef300dc4a55dc/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
The image part with relationship ID rId26 was not found in the file.
ProductEngineering
ManufacturingEngineering
Manufacturing
Operations
ConceptEngineering
RequirementsDecommissioning
100100100111010110110001110001010001011011111001100101110100000000111010110001000111010101000001001000010100011110000111000101000001010000010000010100001010101010101100011010101110000110010101011100011000011111000001110010101010000100000101000000001000000100000001100000111000001111000111000000111100001010110000111100010101000000011111100001101010000011100001110011110000101010101000000111000011000010001101110100001001000010101000010101011110001111000001010110011110010100001110000110000100000010000000000111000011100000111111100011010101000010000011111001101010101000110111010000100001000001001011001000000100000001111100000010000001110000100001001000001000011100111100001000011100101010110011000010000011111100101010101101
Digital Twin Through the Lifecycle
![Page 9: Digital Twin: Mitigating Unpredictable, Undesirable ......Digital Twin Model. 6. Data. Information. 100100100111010110110001110001 010. 001011011111001100101110100000 000. 111010110001000111010101000001](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081616/5fe9d75637cef300dc4a55dc/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
The image part with relationship ID rId26 was not found in the file.
Digital Twin Types
• Digital Twin Prototype (DTP)
• Digital Twin Instance (DTI)
• Digital Twin Aggregate (DTA)
Prognostics
Interrogative
![Page 10: Digital Twin: Mitigating Unpredictable, Undesirable ......Digital Twin Model. 6. Data. Information. 100100100111010110110001110001 010. 001011011111001100101110100000 000. 111010110001000111010101000001](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081616/5fe9d75637cef300dc4a55dc/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
The image part with relationship ID rId26 was not found in the file.
System Engineering Models
Figure 4
![Page 11: Digital Twin: Mitigating Unpredictable, Undesirable ......Digital Twin Model. 6. Data. Information. 100100100111010110110001110001 010. 001011011111001100101110100000 000. 111010110001000111010101000001](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081616/5fe9d75637cef300dc4a55dc/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
The image part with relationship ID rId26 was not found in the file.
Digital Twin Implementation Model
Figure 5
![Page 12: Digital Twin: Mitigating Unpredictable, Undesirable ......Digital Twin Model. 6. Data. Information. 100100100111010110110001110001 010. 001011011111001100101110100000 000. 111010110001000111010101000001](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081616/5fe9d75637cef300dc4a55dc/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
The image part with relationship ID rId26 was not found in the file.
Real vs. Virtual Costs
Figure 6
![Page 13: Digital Twin: Mitigating Unpredictable, Undesirable ......Digital Twin Model. 6. Data. Information. 100100100111010110110001110001 010. 001011011111001100101110100000 000. 111010110001000111010101000001](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081616/5fe9d75637cef300dc4a55dc/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
The image part with relationship ID rId26 was not found in the file.
Obstacles
• Organizational siloing / culture• Physical world knowledge• Magnitude of possible system states
![Page 14: Digital Twin: Mitigating Unpredictable, Undesirable ......Digital Twin Model. 6. Data. Information. 100100100111010110110001110001 010. 001011011111001100101110100000 000. 111010110001000111010101000001](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081616/5fe9d75637cef300dc4a55dc/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
The image part with relationship ID rId26 was not found in the file.
Possibilities
• Usage feedback to design• System front-running
![Page 15: Digital Twin: Mitigating Unpredictable, Undesirable ......Digital Twin Model. 6. Data. Information. 100100100111010110110001110001 010. 001011011111001100101110100000 000. 111010110001000111010101000001](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081616/5fe9d75637cef300dc4a55dc/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
The image part with relationship ID rId26 was not found in the file. Net Shap…Mat
erial
Size
Additive Manufacturing
15
Can we make it?
Should we make it?
2 questions…
“The ultimate vision for the digital twin is to create, test and build our equipment in a virtual environment. Only when we get it to where it performs to our requirements do we physically manufacture it. – John Vickers, NASA Principal Technologist, The Economist
![Page 16: Digital Twin: Mitigating Unpredictable, Undesirable ......Digital Twin Model. 6. Data. Information. 100100100111010110110001110001 010. 001011011111001100101110100000 000. 111010110001000111010101000001](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081616/5fe9d75637cef300dc4a55dc/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
The image part with relationship ID rId26 was not found in the file.
ExteriorWindow sBumpersFasciaGrilleTrimMirrorsHandlesFuel Filler Door ?HeadlampsTail lampsWipers…
InfotainmentHead unitDisplaysAntennasSwitches…
Electrical ComponentsWiringLocking system…
ToolsJigs Fixtures
…Stamping Dies
Die trim steel ?…
Molds…
Demonstrator Software System
Bill of Material, Bill of Equipment
, Materials, Machine/Material CapabilitiesMachine
Define Requirements
in tabular format
Analyze Physical Criteria
Analyze Financial Criteria
S
A
M
C/T
MachinesIDManufacturerModelModePower (W)AM ProcessGeneral Material TypeSpecific Material TypeX (in)Y (in)Z (in)Price (USD)Operation Cost_$/hrMaintenance Contract_$/yr
MaterialsIDcompanyMaterialTypePrice $ per kgShore ScaleHardnessUTS_MPaTensile Mod_MPaElongation to failure_%Flexural Strength_MPa
Machine-Material Systems
IDMachine1MaterialMin Hole dia_mmMin Wall Thickness_mmMin Column X-section_mmMin Groove Width_mmAngled Surface Min Ra_umDeposition Rate_kg/hrMin UTS_MPaMin Tensile Modulus_MPaMin Elongation to Break_%Min Flexural Strength_MPaAbsolute Accuracy mm/mExpected IterationsMaterial Reuse_%
PartsIDPart NameSTL fileHeight_mmWidth_mmLength_mmMaterial Volume_mm 3̂Min wall thickness_mmMin hole dia_mmMin Column X-section_mmMin Groove Width_mmPrototype divisible_(y/n)Prototype MaterialPrototype Load TypePrototype FinishPrototype Tolerance_mm/mPrototype QtyPrototype Target PricePrototype Target Lead TimeEnd Use divisible_(y/n)End Use MaterialEnd Use Load TypeEnd Use FinishEnd Use Tolerance_mm/mEnd Use QtyEnd Use Target PriceEnd Use Target Lead TimeEnd Use Hardness Shore ScaleEnd Use HardnessEnd Use UTS_MPaEnd Use Tensile Modulus_MPaEnd Use Elongation to Failure_%End Use Flexural Strength_MPa
• Surface finish
• Distortion• Geometric
Limitations
Input (BOM, BOE)
Data Stora
ge
Eventually –auto extract from Teamcenterdatabase
(Machine Data is expected to be populated and
maintained externally)
• Build cast-finish PT part
• Build sand mold for PT part
• Build pattern for ceramic mold
• Build insert for injection mold
• Build trim handle for shift knob
• …
SIZE
ACCURACY/NET SHAPE
MATERIAL
CONVENTIONAL (NON-AM)
PROCESSES
Pattern build
Sand
Core
build
Cast
Machine
Pattern build
Sand
Core
build
Cast
Machine
Direct metal print
Indirect sand core print
Option 1
Option 23
Die trim steel
Prototype Intake manifold
Saw Aluminum block
Rough
machine banks, port
s
Finish
machining
Cleanin
g
Weld
runners
ORANGE = Potential portion to be replaced
Direct metal print
FuelFillerDoor
Design & Build Mold
Injection Mold Paint
Direct polymer printing
What do we want AM to deliver?
Yellow = Missed by < 10% volume
QUANTIFYING THE ROLE OF PART DESIGN COMPLEXITY IN USING 3D SANDPRINTING FOR MOLDS AND CORES, 2016 Conner et. al.
Example –Breakeven Analysis for Sand Molds:Costs per sand mold, varying quantities &
Analysis
Interactive Analysis
Output
Database filters to begin for Demo
Can We / Should We …..deteriorates as we move to production?
one part at a time
+ Geometry
Files
http://i.istockimg.com/file_thumbview_approve/18336484/6/stock-illustration-18336484-car-assembly-and-parts-black-white-vector-icon-set.jpg
PARTS AND TOOLS
Automatic analysis results of multiple parts & tools.
Vehicle PartsEngine & Transmission Parts
Cylinder HeadBlockCamshaftCrankshaftIntake Manifold ?…
ChassisSteeringSuspensionTiresWheels…
Heating, Ventilation, and ACDuctsVents…
InteriorDash panelsInstrumentsSeatsTrimLightsSpeakersSafety BeltsAirbags…
BodyStructureClosuresSeals…
2
1
1
32
Analysis performed one at a time
COST /THROUGHPUT
RESULT
RESULT
RESULT
RESULT
2016-05-26 MAS
Additive Manufacturing SAM-CT Framework
![Page 17: Digital Twin: Mitigating Unpredictable, Undesirable ......Digital Twin Model. 6. Data. Information. 100100100111010110110001110001 010. 001011011111001100101110100000 000. 111010110001000111010101000001](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081616/5fe9d75637cef300dc4a55dc/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
The image part with relationship ID rId26 was not found in the file.
AM DB Architecture
Add ons:ImagesFor fee add ons:BrochuresReferralsDemonstration videosTraining videos
![Page 18: Digital Twin: Mitigating Unpredictable, Undesirable ......Digital Twin Model. 6. Data. Information. 100100100111010110110001110001 010. 001011011111001100101110100000 000. 111010110001000111010101000001](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081616/5fe9d75637cef300dc4a55dc/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Virtually Perfect: Driving Innovative and Lean Products
Copyright 2003-2015, Michael W. Grieves, LLC
The image part with relationship ID rId26 was not found in the file.
Questions/[email protected]