DIGITAL TRENDS Technology's impact in a world of accelerating returns

PREDICTIONS...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6d/Niels_Bohr.jpg

„Predic(on  is  very  difficult,  especially  about  the  future.  “    Niels  Bohr  (1885  -­‐  1962)  

PREDICTIONS...

http://www.businessinsider.com/false-predictons-2012-5?op=1&IR=T

„The  horse  is  here  to  stay  but  the  automobile  is  only  a  novelty—a  fad.“  President  Michigan  Savings  Bank  advising  not  to  invest  in  Ford  Motor  Co.  (1903)  

PREDICTIONS...

http://www.businessinsider.com/false-predictons-2012-5?op=1&IR=T

„There  is  not  the  slightest  indica(on  that  nuclear  energy  will  ever  be  obtainable.  It  would  mean  that  the  atom  would  have  to  be  shaSered  at  will.“  Albert  Einstein  (1932)  

PREDICTIONS...

http://blog.4psa.com/wp-content/uploads/120919071727-ibm-ceos-tom-watson-sr-large-gallery-horizontal.jpg

„I  think  there  is  a  world  market  for  maybe  five  computers.“  Thomas  Watson  (1943)  

PREDICTIONS...

https://ionegiantmag.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/bill-gates-desk-picture.jpg

„A  computer  in  every  home.“  Bill  Gates  (1977)  

PREDICTIONS...

http://cache.boston.com/resize/bonzai-fba/Globe_Photo/2011/02/07/1297139267_6722/539w.jpg

„There  is  no  reason  for  any  individual  to  have  a  computer  in  his  home.“  Ken  Olsen  (1977)  

PREDICTIONS...

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1265759/images/o-MICROSOFT-MISTAKE-facebook.jpg

„There's  no  chance  that  the  iPhone  is  going  to  get  any  significant  market  share.“  Steve  Ballmer  (2007)  

PREDICTIONS...

PREDICTIONS...

http://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirvana-185306

„Visionaries  see  a  future  of  telecommu(ng  workers,  interac(ve  libraries  and  mul(media  classrooms.  They  speak  of  electronic  town  mee(ngs  and  virtual  communi(es.  Commerce  and  business  will  shi_  from  offices  and  malls  to  networks  and  modems.  And  the  freedom  of  digital  networks  will  make  government  more  democra(c.  Baloney.  Do  our  computer  pundits  lack  all  common  sense?  The  truth  in  no  online  database  will  replace  your  daily  newspaper,  no  CD-­‐ROM  can  take  the  place  of  a  competent  teacher  and  no  computer  network  will  change  the  way  government  works.“      

REALLY?!

REASONS

Companies  are  planning  for  con(nuous/linear  development  –    while  the  world  is  increasingly  discon(nuous/exponen(al  

„If  the  rate  of  change  on  the  outside  exceeds  the  rate  of  change  on  the  inside,  the  end  is  near.“  Jack  Welch  

http://www.mrgoodacre.com/uploads/1/0/5/3/10539489/7363039_orig.png?1

REASONS

“How  did  you  go  bankrupt?”  “Two  ways.  Gradually,  then  suddenly.”  ―  Ernest  Hemingway,  The  Sun  Also  Rises  

REASONS 1. Innovator‘s Dilemma

REASONS 2. Technology-adoption

REASONS 3. Illusion of linearity

hSp://www.evolu(onpartners.com.au/exponen(al-­‐growth-­‐vs-­‐linear-­‐thinking-­‐in-­‐management-­‐teams.html  

REASONS

„We  are  fine!“  

hSp://www.evolu(onpartners.com.au/exponen(al-­‐growth-­‐vs-­‐linear-­‐thinking-­‐in-­‐management-­‐teams.html  

REASONS

„We  are  fucked!“  

hSp://www.evolu(onpartners.com.au/exponen(al-­‐growth-­‐vs-­‐linear-­‐thinking-­‐in-­‐management-­‐teams.html  

ASCI RED: FIRST TERAFLOP COMPUTER 1997

http://www.top500.org/static/media/uploads/20/top-1-systems/asci-red-sandia-national-laboratory/asci%20red5_800x600.jpg

•  1.8  teraflops  •  10.000  Intel  Pen(um  Pro  •  Size:  Tennis-­‐Court  •  Energy  consump(on:  800  houses  •  Cost:  $55  million  

PS3: JUST 8 YEARS LATER (2005)

http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation_3

•  1.8  teraflops  •  Cost:  $399  

DNA-SEQUENCING

http://www.redorbit.com/media/gallery/national-science-foundation-gallery/183_d5b18d488f363c41f4f702d11dc102d2.jpg

•  Cost  2007:  $10  million  

DNA-SEQUENCING

http://www.nature.com/news/technology-the-1-000-genome-1.14901 http://www.redorbit.com/media/gallery/national-science-foundation-gallery/183_d5b18d488f363c41f4f702d11dc102d2.jpg

•  Cost  2015:  $1.000  

LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS

http://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/bttf/images/9/92/Texaco1955wide.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20080110081542

•  30  years:  1955  -­‐>  1985  

LAW OF ACCELERATING RETURNS

https://www.acmi.net.au/media/1682585/back-to-the-future_1200x520.gif

•  30  years:  1985  -­‐>  2015  

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

http://www.ventures-africa.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/stack-of-paper.jpg

•  How  many  folds  to  the  moon?  

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

https://www.acmi.net.au/media/1682585/back-to-the-future_1200x520.gif http://www.codersrevolution.com/blog/will-a-piece-of-paper-folded-42-times-reach-the-moon

REPLACING JOBS

„The  role  of  humans  as  the  most  important  factor  of  produc(on  is  bound  to  diminish  in  the  same  way  that  the  role  of  horses  in  agricultural  produc(on  was  first  diminished  and  then  eliminated  by  the  introduc(on  of  tractors.“  Wassily  Leon(ef  (1983)  

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/aa/Leontief-Harvard.jpg

REPLACING JOBS

In  the  next  two  decades,  47  per  cent  of  employment  is  ‘in  the  high-­‐risk  category’,  meaning  it  is  ‘poten(ally  automatable’.  

http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/future-employment-how-susceptible-are-jobs-computerisation-oms-working-paper-dr-carl-benedikt-frey-m

REPLACING JOBS

MOBILITY

Cars:  $9  trillion  market  http://www.ibisworld.com/industry/global/global-car-automobile-sales.html http://i.cbc.ca/1.1508368.1381554204!/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/16x9_620/hi-manufacturing852-cp01542.jpg

MOBILITY

1.2  million  deaths  related  to  car  accidents/year  (40%  alcohol/93%  distracted)     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bN44bL3reCo

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1f/Head_On_Collision.jpg

MOBILITY

Driven  just  4%  of  the  (me  Cost  of  $9.000/year    

http://qz.com/264781/the-latest-attack-on-americas-car-culture-comes-from-wall-street/ http://www.autoblog.com/2012/05/04/average-cost-of-car-ownership-rises-to-8-946-per-year/ http://demonsofdistraction.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/media/2011/11/LostCarParkingLot.jpg

MOBILITY

Self-­‐driving  cars:  99%  fewer  cars  required  Parking  lots  no  longer  required  (10%  city  space)     http://www.detroitchamber.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/AutofactsAnalystNoteUSFeb2013FINAL.pdf

http://www.templetons.com/brad/robocars/

ENERGY

$6 trillion market (10% GDP)

$6  trillion  market  (10%  GDP)    

ENERGY

http://www.gianvonplanta.ch/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/fukushima.jpg

ENERGY

http://rameznaam.com/2011/03/17/expis-moores-law-really-a-fair-comparison-for-solar/

ENERGY

http://www.digitaltonto.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/solar-cost_curve.jpg

ENERGY

http://icdn3.digitaltrends.com/image/tesla-powerwall-7-970x548-c.jpg

HEALTH

$7.5  trillion  market  From  one-­‐for-­‐all  to  personalized  medicine  From  treatment  to  preven(on    

HEALTH

$258  bn.  +  130,000  deaths  due  to  non-­‐prescribed  medica(on  just  in  US  No  doctors  required  within  20  years?     http://www.marsdd.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/marsblog-GivenImaging-PillCam.png

http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/quantified-self/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTtL-iAXJxo

INSURANCE

Sensors  everywhere  

http://iot.co.id/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/the-internet-of-things.jpg http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/redefinition-privacy/

TELCOS

$33  bn.  lost  SMS  revenues  http://www.bitkom.org/de/presse/8477_82223.aspx http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2015/1/11/whatsapp-sails-past-sms-but-where-does-messaging-go-next http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-02-21/whatsapp-shows-how-phone-carriers-lost-out-on-33-billion

TELCOS

Dumb  pipe?  

EDUCATION

http://www.wired.com/2015/05/altschool/

BANKING

„Banking  is  necessary,  banks  are  not.“  Bill  Gates  

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/mfonobongnsehe/files/2014/09/bill-gates.jpg

BANKING

2020:  35%  of  revenues  lost  to  non-­‐banks  and  online  pure-­‐plays  http://cointelegraph.com/storage/uploads/view/a9329ebf6090afb969b7a98195460892.jpg http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/banking-without-banks/

BANKING

Banking  license  

BANKING

ASacks  on  all  fronts  https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/disrupting-banking-fintech-startups/

MONEY

$500  bn.  transfer/payment  fees/year  http://blog.pmarca.com/2014/01/22/why-bitcoin-matters/ http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/banking-without-banks/ http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-10-07/andreessen-on-finance-we-can-reinvent-the-entire-thing- http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2015/06/features/bitcoin-reid-hoffman

THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER?

=  largest  „taxi“  provider;  no  vehicles  

=  most  popular  media  owner;  no  content  created  

=  most  valuable  retailer;  no  inventory  

=  largest  accomoda(on  provider;  no  real  estate    

=  largest  food  delivery;  no  restaurants,  no  fleet  

THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER?

User  experience  =  the  central  part:    own  the  customer  (and  the  profits)  by  solving  her  problem  in  the  most  seamless,  enjoyable  way.  

„The  customer's  percep(on  is  your  reality.“  Kate  Zabriskie  

„Design  is  not  just  what  it  looks  like  and  feels  like.  Design  is  how  it  works.“  Steve  Jobs  

http://www.dandzombak.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Steve-Jobs-Secret-of-Life.jpg

THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER?

Service   Aggrega(on   Need  

       Convenience  

passive   responsive   proac(ve  

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fa/NY-Taxis.jpg

THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER?

DIGITAL DISRUPTION BY INDUSTRY

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCdJ8btW0AAlNKz.png:large https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/au/Documents/Building%20Lucky%20Country/deloitte-au-consulting-digital-disruption-whitepaper-0912.pdf

THANK YOU!

Alexander  Braun  alexander@crea(veconstruc(on.de  @almarrone