digital resistance in repressive regimes
DESCRIPTION
Presentation given at the "Digital Media and Repressive Regimes" conference in Copenhagen, November 2008TRANSCRIPT
Is Digital ResistanceReshaping the Public Sphere?
Patrick P. Meier
The Fletcher School at Tufts &Berkman Center, Harvard University
1. Examples…
DigiActive
Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text”
DigiActive
Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text”
Spain ‘04 - “The Night of SMS”
DigiActive
Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text”
Pakistan ‘07 - “Flash Protests”
DigiActive
Spain ‘04 - “The Night of SMS”
Philippines ‘01 - “Coup de Text”
Tibet - “Media Blackout?”
Spain ‘04 - “The Night of SMS”
Pakistan ‘07 - “Flash Protests”
Tibet - “Media Blackout?”
Morocco ‘08 - “Exposing Abuse”
Spain ‘04 - “The Night of SMS”
Pakistan ‘07 - “Flash Protests”
Tibet - “Media Blackout?”
Morocco ‘08 - “Exposing Abuse”
Egypt - “Exposing Torture”
Pakistan ‘07 - “Flash Protests”
Tibet - “Media Blackout?”
Morocco ‘08 - “Exposing Abuse”
China - “Live-Twittered Arrest”
Egypt - “Exposing Torture”
2. Question…
ICT a statistically significant predictor of protests events?
3. Previous studies…
Data-driven
Data-driven
Eyck 2001
Data-driven
Eyck 2001
Stodden and Meier
2008
Data-driven
Eyck 2001
Stodden and Meier
2008
4. Data…
Parameters
Parameters
Protests
ICTs
Controls
Parameters
Protests
ICTs
Controls
Time period
1990-2007
country-year
Parameters
Protests
ICTs
Controls
Time period
1990-2007
country-year
22 regimes
Graphs
Graphs
Protests
Graphs
Protests
Internet
Graphs
Protests
InternetMobiles
Summary Stats
N = 396
5. Methods…
Regressions
Regressions
yi,t = i + 1 Inti,t +2 Mobi,t + 3 Landi,t +4 Autoci,t + 5 Unempi,t +6 GDPi,t +i,t
Regressions
Observed vs Projected
Observed vs Projected
Fi = yobs,i - ymodel,i
6. Findings…
Results*
*preliminary, subject to change
Results*
Internet
-0.12 (0.03)
99% sig level
Results*
Internet
-0.12 (0.03)
99% sig level Mobiles
-0.06 (0.06)
not significant
Results*
Internet
-0.12 (0.03)
99% sig level Mobiles
-0.06 (0.06)
not significant
Other
variables
not significant
Results*
Rsq = 0.613Rsq = 0.155
6. Conclusion & Next
Thoughts Why?
Thoughts Why?
Other methods?
Thoughts Why?
Other methods?
Field research!
