Digital Futures2050’s visions inspiring 2020’s policies

Franco AccordinoHead of Task Force "Digital Futures"

DG CONNECT, European Commission

Brainstorming with the CRIS CommunityBrussels, 11 September 2012

Mission

inspire future strategic choices

“Digital Futures is a participatory visioning project

aiming to devise 2050’s visions & policy ‘routes’

underpinned by the long term advances of ICT”

3/10

2015-2025 (?)

2035-2045

2040-2050

Futures 2040-2050

Policy Options

EC mandates2010-2014 2015-2019 2035-2039 2040-2044

Barroso II

Policy Frameworks

Inspire

strategic

choice

s

Purpose: inform future strategic choices

2010-2020 (Europe 2020)

+ Evidence+ Participation+ Agility

4/10

Engagement strategy

1) Host conversations/dialogues with stakeholders• Standard format: participatory brainstorming• Contributors: scientists, citizens, policy makers,…• Virtual (webinar) & in-person meetings• Going local: Member States, schools, conferences…• Viral process: loosely coordinated, but with simple, shared rules

2) Capture content into an open, standard online platform (futurium) • Based on a fixed meta-model (futures, policies,…) & workflow• Enabling co-creation (wiki), voting, forecasting, back casting, mapping,…• Automatic semantic annotation, data mining, correlation, fact-finding• Agent-based gaming and simulation (early 2013)

emergent collective intelligenceemergent collective intelligence

5/10

Futures(Visions)

Policies

Inspire

Impact on individuals, society, economy,

environment, politics, technologies,…

Real world

Trends

ScientificEvidence

Sense & Analyse data, Identify issues and challenges,

Elicit knowledge

(Re-)shapeInform

Envision

IMPLEMENTATION /REVIEW

DESIGN

Build on scientific evidence & people‘s opinion to inform policy decisions

Stakeholders

Policy makers

Other factors than evidence

6/10

Meta-model to engage stakeholders

Trend

Every European

Digital

Future

Future

Future

DAE Policy

A1 A101 AA

BA C

Futures (visions)

Policies

pillars

actions

Agents

p1 p7

2012 2020 2050

Policies:• Are expressed as S.M.A.R.T.

objectives• May be structured (e.g. pillars)• Atomic level: timed actions• Have a measurable impact • Other measurable attributes

(e.g. plausibility, innovation, …)

Futures:• Desirability (emotional view) • Likelihood (rational/scientific view)• Causality: antecedent->consequent• Forecasting vs. back casting

Agents:• Stakeholders in broad sense (EC, MS,

Regions, Industry, Citizens…)• Implementers (those who execute

the actions)• Verifiers• Decision makers

Policy

AA

p p

AA

FutureFutureFuture

@? #

7/10

Digital Futures workflow

Conversation on Futures

Co-create (wiki) and synthesise

Lock

Co-create (wiki) and synthesise

Futures(outlined form)

Futures(detailed form)

Conversation on policies

Policy options(outlined form)

Back/Fore cast, analyse &

vote

PrioritisedFutures

Policy options(detailed form)

ready?

Reality check, analyse & vote

PrioritisedPoliciesready?

LockUnlock

NO YES

NO YES

START WITH A CONVERSATION (Mar 2012) START CREATING ONLINE (Oct 2012)

(Dec 2012)

8/10

Digital Futures achievements(July 2012)

• 70+ conversations in person/online , 20+ interviews• 100+ mind maps, 16 draft trends, 8 draft visions…• Engaging non usual partners (schools, youth associations, …)• Meta-model and its experimental implementation

– Test phase till 30 September 2012 @ www.futurium.eu • Next milestones:

– Click&Join futurium as of 01/10/12 @ www.europa.eu/digital_agenda/futures – Digital Future conversations in the pipeline:

• Presidency event with youth, 14-15/09• EP event, 27 Nov 2012• Going local campaign, Sep-Dec 2012• Futures @ World Foresight Forum, April 2013• Final event, Nov 2013• …

– Releases of visions an policy options: 31/10/12, 31/05/13, 30/11/13

Building on achievements and best practices (smart regulation,…)!

9/10

Energy positive

“Play & Rewind”

Bionics and cyborgs

Implanted/ Embedded (bio-neuro-cogno-nano)“Organic”

computing

Cloudcomputing

Energy efficient

Internet

Cognitive and soft robots Complex

systemsmodeling

Virtualisation

2015-20 2040-50

Foun

datio

ns

T

echn

olog

ies

C

halle

nges

/Issu

es

Financial crisis

Sustainability

Healthyageing

Resourceefficiency Climate

changes

GovernanceTrust

Securityprivacy

Property,Ownership Balanced

resource sharing Participative

decision

Governance

~Immortality

Interim/beta status

Body/mind adaptation

Quantum Internet

Trans-humanism

Technological futures & related challenges (ver. 07/12)

“Conventional” ICT (Silicon based, Packet switching, Boolean, …)

Future foundatinos:ICT-Bio-Nano-Neuro-Cogno-

Quantum convergence

10/10

More emerging trends and visions (July 2012)

Trends:1. Urbanisation (including transportation)2. Tension between representative and delegate democracy3. Rise of digital natives4. Behavioural transformation5. Shifting power in geopolitics6. Current model of capitalism is running out of steam7. Cyber-physical convergence8. Personalized manufacturing (3D printing and more)9. Hyper-connectivity (e.g. internet, pervasiveness of ICT)10.Global Warming11.Depreciation of money (governmental monetary policies)12.Globalisation and ethics13.Exponential rate of technological change14.Renaissance of space exploration15.Instability through instrumentalisation of religion16.Scarcity of natural resources (including energy)

Visions:1. Environment, energy and space in

20502. Personal life in 20503. Economy in 20504. Robotics in 20505. Technology in 20506. Health in 20507. Social life in 20508. Politics in 2050

Work in progress @ http://www.futurium.eu/all-editable-futures

11/10

Thanks

http://ec.europa.eu/digital-futures

http://www.europa.eu/digital_agenda/futures (as of 1 Oct 2012)

12/10

Intro Voting & selection

Open circle(all suggest topics)

The conversation of the day with euroCRIS

Parallel tables

Parallel tables

Parallel tables

Reporting Final closing circle

13/10

Stakeholders

ParticipatoryTools

Policy Makers

mine & visualise mine &

visualise

Social Media (Twitter, FB, G+,…)

Participate

Participate

Real world data

ParticipateParticipate

Data Gathering

Data Crawling

OpenDataCloud

KnowledgeHarvesting Tools

Futurium’s conceptual architecture