digging deeper: integrating multi-disciplinary expert ... · digging deeper: integrating...

Digging Deeper: Integrating Multi-Disciplinary Expert Knowledge into Resilient System

Decision-Making

Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Exposure Research Laboratory, System Exposure Division Wednesday, September 18, 2018

Jessica Frank1, Kristen Naney2, Liem Tran3, Timothy Barzyk4,Betsy Smith5

1 ORISE Fellow, National Exposure Research Laboratory Office of Research and Development, U.S. EPA2 North Carolina A&T State University, Center for Outreach in Alzheimer’s, Aging, & Community Health, Greensboro, NC;

3University of Tennessee, Department of Geography, Knoxville, TN;4 National Exposure Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S. EPA

5 Retired, National Exposure Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S. EPA

Outline

❖ Set-up for Live Poll (2 minutes)

❖ Context (10 minutes)

• Background

• Methods

• Brief Introduction to Model

❖ Live Poll (12 minutes)

❖ Discussion / Questions (5 minutes)

Live Poll

www.zeetings.com/CCRC

Goals

➢ Conduct a System Analysis to Inform Resilient Decision-

Making in Port Communities

➢ Use Methodology that is:

✓ Adaptable

✓ Easy to Use

✓ Integrates Stakeholder Perspectives

✓ Not Resource & Time Intensive

➢ Identify Factors within Port Community System that are

Drivers of Resiliency

Methods

Analytic Network Process Accommodates:

✓ System Analysis

✓ Stakeholder Engagement

✓ Adaptability

✓ Qualitative & Quantitative

✓ Relatively Non-Demanding on Time

and Resources

✓ Parameterize and Prioritize Variables

Systems Analysis

A holistic analysis approach that focuses on how parts

of a system are interrelated.

Systems Approach Traditional

Whole Part

Feedback &

InterdependenceLinear

Transdisciplinary Discipline/Sector Silos

Cross-Sector Perspectives Optimize Goals in Isolation

Systems Analysis

Shifting Perspective

Systems Analysis

Shifting Perspective

Image credit: https://www.nwei.org/iceberg/

Analytic Decision Model

https://www.nwei.org/iceberg/

Resilient System

Social

MobilityInclusionCapital

Environmental

BuiltNatural

Economic

StabilityEfficiency

RESILIENT DECISION-MAKING

TIM

E &

SPA

CE

Why Port Communities?

System Convergence

Hazardous Materials

Intermodal Transport

Vulnerable Populations

Coastal Vulnerability

Clustering of Industry

Methods

S T A K E H O L D E R SEXPERT

Expert Stakeholder Engagement

Variable Refinement

System Mapping

System Maps Decision Model

Expert Elicitation

Pairwise Rankings

Model

Pairwise ComparisonsNodes: 63Cluster: 97Total: 160

Model Connections

Super Decisions Interface

Pairwise ComparisonsNodes: 63Cluster: 97Total: 160

Cluster Comparisons

Live Poll

www.zeetings.com/CCRC

Select your current affiliation:

A) Government

B) Community Group

C) Academic

D) Commercial/Private

E) Other

Live Poll

Select your current affiliation:

a) Government 65%

b) Community Group 5%

c) Academic 5%

d) Commercial/Private 15%

e) Other 10%

Live Poll Result

Live Poll

Environmental Health is defined as environmental hazards,

quality, and stressor exposure for both natural and built

environments

Rank the variables in the order that the ENVIRONMENTAL

HEALTH cluster has the strongest influence.

1) Disaster Resiliency

2) Energy Use & Production

3) Economic Growth

4) Port Operations

5) Community Wellness

6) Environmental (Quality, Hazards, Exposures)

Live Poll

How confident are you with your rankings?

A) Extremely Confident

B) Very Confident

C) Moderately Confident

D) Slightly Confident

E) Not Confident

Live Poll

Disaster Resiliency is defined as redundant community

infrastructure, buffering ecosystem services, diversified

energy resources, land-use trade-offs.

Rank the variables in the order that DISASTER

RESILIENCY has the strongest influence.



3) Economic Growth

4) Port Operations

