DIASを用いた洪水予警報システムのプロタイピングPrototyping a Flood Early Warning System on DIAS

小池俊雄、Toshio Koike

国立研究開発法人土木研究所水災害・リスクマネジメント国際センター(ICHARM)センター長Director, International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM)

東京大学名誉教授、日本学術会議会員Professor Emeritus, the University of Tokyo (UTokyo)

Council Member, Science Council of Japan (SCJ), Cabinet Office

「平成２９年度全球降水観測計画(GPM)国内シンポジウム宇宙から見る雨～これまでの20年、これからの20年～」

18-22 Jan 2005Inauguration of IFI at WCDR in

KobeWMO/UNESCO/

UNISDR/UNU

2

International Flood Initiative (IFI) -Establishment

2003

17-22 Jun : 15th UNESO-IHP

IGC Resolution XV-14 on Joint

UNESCO/WMO Programme on

Floods

2002

2004> 12-14 Jul : Preparatory meeting in

Tsukuba. A joint UNESCO/WMO task team (6 members) produced a concept paper "The Joint UNESCO/WMO Flood Initiative (JUWFI)"

> 20-24 Sep : 16th IHP-IGC approved the concept paper and renamed as "The International Flood Initiative (IFI)".

> 20-29 Oct : 12th WMO CHy discussed the Concept Paper

May: XIVth WMO Congress welcomed the initiative and suggested to establish a joint UNESCO/WMO Committee on Floods. The proposed ICHARM will constitute a global facility for this programme.

Building Resilience

Mar

ch 2

015 Sendai

Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction

Sep

tem

ber

2015 Sustainable

Development Goals

Dec

ember

2015 Paris

Agreement

(COP 21)

Concerted Action is Required

Preventing Future Risk

Reducing Current Risk

Adaptation& Recovery

Sustainable Development

Understanding Governance Investment EW/BBB

Three Key Global Agendas in 2015

International Symposium on Integrated Actions for

Global Water and Environmental Sustainability -In

line with the Commemoration of the 70th

Anniversary of UNESCO, October 2015, Medan

Second UN Special Thematic Session on Water

and Disasters, 2015, The UN Headquarters, New

York

Asia Water Cycle Symposium (AWCS2016),

March 2016, Tokyo

IFI Side Event at the UNESCO IHP IC on New

Strategy for International Flood Initiative (IFI), June

2016, Paris

Third UN Special Thematic Session on Water and

Disasters, 2017, The UN Headquarters, New York

HLPW Panel members (as of 3/21/2016)

`Enrique Peña Nieto

President, Mexico

`

Macky Sall

President, Senegal

` `

`

`

`

Sheikh Hasina

Prime Minister, Bangladesh

János Áder

President, Hungary

Ameenah Gurib-Fakim

President, Mauritius

Abdullah Ensour

Prime Minister, Jordan

Malcolm Turnbull

Prime Minister, Australia

Kevin Rutte

Prime Minister, Netherlands

`Jacob Zuma

President, South Africa

`

Co-chairs

UNITED NATIONS

Jim Yong Kim

President, World Bank Group

Ban Ki-moon

Secretary General, United Nations

Co-convened by:

Dr. Han Seung-soo

Former prime Minister, South Korea

Manuel Pulgar-Vidal

Minister, Peru

Special Advisors to the Panel

`

Emomalii Rahmonov

President, Tajikistan

HLPW Action Plan “9 Areas of Action”

6

1. Catalyzing Changes, Building Partnerships and International Cooperation

2. Resilient Economies, Societies, and Disaster Risk Reduction

3. Universal Access to Safe Waterand Sanitation

4. Sustainable Cities and Human Settlements

5. Water and the Environment6. Infrastructure and Investments7. Water Governance8. Water Data9. Valuing Water

International Decade for Action, “Water for Sustainable Development”

2018-2028

• Proclaims the period from March 22th, 2018 to March, 22th, 2028 the International Decade for Action, “Water for Sustainable Development”;

• Decides that the objectives of the Decade should be a greater focus on the sustainable development and integrated management of water resources… in order to help to achieve internationally agreed water-related goals and targets;

• Decides that these objectives should be pursued, inter alia, by improving knowledge generation and dissemination, facilitating access to knowledge and exchange of good practices, generating new information relevant to the water-related Sustainable Development Goals, pursuing advocacy, networking and promoting partnership and action 7

- Adopted by UN General Assembly on December 20th, 2016 -

Implementation Planning Workshop on International Flood Initiative (IFI) in Asia-Pacific

and GEOSS/AWCI Session at GEOSS AP 9

January 2017 in Tokyo, Japan

Participated Countries (6)Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka

Platform on Water and Disasters (PWD)

Identification

Policy-makingCommunity of

Practice

1. Data

Archiving

2. Model

Development

3. Societal

Benefit

Creation

Societal Change

(land use , population)

Climate Change

Monitoring

Prediction

Tra

nsd

iscip

lina

ry

Inte

rdis

cip

linary

Ca

pa

city

Bu

ildin

g

Integrated Risk Assessment

future

present

past

International Cooperation

Hig

h-L

eve

l P

ractitio

ne

rH

igh

-Le

ve

l P

olic

y-M

ake

r

Damage Hazard Socio-Economic

Country A

Hydro-Met

River Bureau

Disaster

University

Funding Agency

IFI Partners

UNISDR

WMO

UNESCO

ICHARM

UNU

IAHS, IAHR

Country B

Hydro-Met

River Bureau

Disaster

University

Funding Agency

Research Institute

Main support:

Sub-support:

Local Community Local Community

Water-related Disasters

RBA

Hydro-Met

River Bureau

Disaster

University

Funding Agency

Research Institute

Local Community

NARBO

CEOS, APRSAF, GEO

Space AgencyExpected Partner Space Agency

Activities in Asia-Pacific Region• Pakistan

- Platform on Water and Disasters- Activity: Meeting among related stakeholders in March, 2017- Initial Target(s): Indus River

• Myanmar- Platform on Water and Disasters- Activity: Meeting among related stakeholders in May and November, 2017- Initial Target(s): Bago River & Sittaung River

• Philippines- Platform on Water-related Disasters (PLATFORM)- Activity: Meeting among related stakeholders in March and June, 2017- Initial Target(s): Pampanga River & Davao River

• Sri Lanka- Platform on Water and Disasters- Activity: Meeting among related stakeholders in August, 2017- Initial Target(s): Kalu River, Kelani River, Malvaththu-Oya River

Activities for “Platform on Water and Disasters”

Sri Lanka

Flood and landslide disaster occurred in late

May this year.

Post-Disaster Activities

A meeting for establishment of “Platform on Water and Disaster”; 24 August at Irrigation Department, Colombo

Participated Stakeholders• Department of Meteorology, Ministry of Disaster Management• Irrigation Department, Ministry of Irrigation & Water Resources Managment• Ministry of Megapolis and Western Province Development• JICA• ICHARM

Platform Target Actions and Coordinating Bodies1. Early Warning: rainfall, flooding, landslide:

ID, MD, NBRO2. Adaptation Planning: Climate Change, Urbanization:

ID, MMDE, MMWD3. Economic Effect of Disasters:

MMDE, DMC4. Contingency Planning:

DMC

Platform Participating Organizations:• Irrigation Department (ID)• Meteorology Department (MD)• Survey Department (SD)• Disaster Management Center (DMC)• National Building Research Organization (NBRO)• Ministry of Magapolis and Western Department (MMWD)• Ministry of Mahaweli Development & Environment (TBD, MMDE)

In-situ rain gauge data (6 numbers)

Collaboration with member organizations of disaster management platform

DisasterManagement

Center

IrrigationDepartment

MeteorologyDepartment

Member organizations of national platform

Satellite precipitation data（GSMaP）

On-line Information provision on DIAS：In-situ rainfall, satellite rainfall, calibrated and forecast rainfall, inundation simulations

Implemented by EDITORIA and ICHARM on DIAS

ALOS © JAXA (2016)

Inundation analysis by using

RRI in DIAS

Simulation and forecasting of river

discharge, water level, inundation extent

Inundation analysis results

Concept of RRI model

Ensemble forecasting rainfall for the next 16 days (max)

Himawari-8 cloud images

Inundation map by satellite data (ALOS-2)

Present situation: Test operation for rainy season Mid-term framework

4 hr latency data (NRT)

Real time data (NOW)

Universities

and others

Calibration

CollaborationInformation provision

Email alert messages

Evacuation advisory by early warning

Government of Sri Lanka(Disaster Management Center)

Damage reduction by pre-disaster measures

Government of Sri Lanka(Irrigation Department)

Sri Lanka disaster management platform

Capacity building for operation

• Promotion of research• Damage reduction

through implementation

Kalu River Basin: Real-time rainfall monitoring & Modeling

Real-Time Data Transfer System in Kalu Basin

Catchment area 2839km2

Largest Discharge to sea 4035MCM annually

Highest Rainfall

Length 129km

More real-time data can be incorporated from ID, DOM, NBRO

Geolocation error correction

16

Bias corrected GSMaP

Ground

GSMaP_NRT

Geolocation error is corrected by

comparison of rainfall pattern

Error of rainfall area location

(Geolocation error)

May 26, 2017

Rainfall intensity correction

17

Bias corrected GSMaP

Ground

GSMaP_NRT

Rainfall intensity is adjusted using

information of ground observation

Bias of rainfall intensity

May 24, 2017

18

Example of hourly rainfall (Corrected GSMaP)

May 25 20:00 May 25 21:00

May 25 22:00 May 25 23:00

Forecast model and prediction methodWRF model:Resolution: 20km/4kmGrids: 200×150×40 (outer), 151×151×40 (inner)Cumulus parameterization: Newer Tiedtke in outer frameCloud microphysics: Lin (water cloud, ice cloud, rain, graupel, snow, single moment)Δx=20km Δx= 4km

00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 (UTC)5/30 5/31 6/1

Forecast initial time (NCEP GFS)

Global forecasts available

Downscaled forecast (3days) is available.

Forecast from 18UTC is available at around

01UTC next day.

Forecast Rainfall in 25May2017

Grell3DECMWF Global forecast

Newer TiedtkeGSMaP observation

The location of precipitation is well

predicted, but is overestimated or underestimated depend on the

choice of cumulus scheme.

VerticalSoil moisture

Profile

Energy andWater flux

Balance

Lateral flow-2D Diffusion wave

River flow - 1D Diffusion wave

Water-Energy budget-RRI (WEB-RRI) Model

River Routing

Surface flow

Ground water Flow

Slope-River Interaction

GW-River Interaction

GW-Soil Moisture Interaction

Discharge Simulation at Kukula hydro-power Station

~1m

Inundation in Kalu River simulated by RRI Model

DEM should be updated with better topographical dataExisting structures should be included for accurate river flow & inundation forecasting

Building Resilience

Mar

ch 2

015 Sendai

Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction

Sep

tem

ber

2015 Sustainable

Development Goals

Dec

ember

2015 Paris

Agreement

(COP 21)

Concerted Action is Required

Preventing Future Risk

Reducing Current Risk

Adaptation& Recovery

Sustainable Development

Understanding Governance Investment EW/BBB

Three Key Global Agendas in 2015