dialogos del valle 2014 (spanish/english)
TRANSCRIPT
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1 Sacred Valley Dialogues
Sóller, 24 de Octubre, 2014
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”Mentes son como paracaídas, solo funcionan abiertos.” - Frank Zappa
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La Situación Actual:
Donde estamos en este momento?
Sostenibilidad / Resiliencia
Responsabilidad & Liderazgo
Relaciones / Oportunidades
Coaliciones Collaborativas
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Sostenibilidad
Elijiendo
Desarollando relaciones
La Narrativa
Ofreciendo Alternativas
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Economy dilemma
Energy dilemma
Climate 550/450/350 dilemma
Ecosystems 60 % loss dilemma
Surprise 9/11 dilemma
”The Quadruple Squeeze”
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Stockholm Resilience Center, Courtesy Johan Rockström
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World Energy Outlook 2010, International Energy Agency
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World Energy Outlook 2010, International Energy Agency
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• Shenandoah-2/Gulf of Mexico - 15 billion barrels of oil. • Harpoon Discovery/Newfoundland - estimated to hold
between 100 million and 200 million barrels of oil. • Offshore Cote d'Ivoire - potential reserves eclipsing 1.8
billion barrels. • Gullfaks, North Sea - on 40-150 million recoverable BOE • Santos Basin/Libra, Brazil - 12-15 billion barrels • Coronado Prospect/Gulf of Mexico - The scale of the
reserves is still under appraisal for commercial viability
150 days
2 days
18 days 1.5 days
150 days
n/a
Total: 321.5 days
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(The Guardian, April 26, 2013)
Cambio de Paradigma ?
”…IMF authors say it’s quite possible that a decent-sized decline in oil production could have “dramatic” effects that could prove very, very difficult for the world to adjust to.”
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(The Guardian, April 26, 2013)
Cambio de Paradigma ?
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Cambio de Paradigma ?
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Cambio de Paradigma?
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Source: http://www.carbontracker.org/
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Sostenibilidad es Possible?
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Resiliencia:
“La resiliencia es la capacidad de un sistema cambiar continuamente y adaptar aún permaneciendo dentro de los umbrales críticos". (Resiliencia se refiere a la capacidad de un sistema socio-ecológico tanto para resistir las perturbaciones de, por ejemplo, el clima o las crisis económicas y de reconstruir y renovarse después.) - 2008, Stockholm Resilience Center, Resilience Theory, as developed by Buzz Hollings
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"Este informe, ... debería hacer que los gestores de riesgos hagan una pausa. Lo que se describe, en marcado detalle, es que hemos entrado en un período de profunda incertidumbre en cómo vamos encontrar la energía para el calor y la movilidad, y cuánto tendremos que pagar por ello ". Dr Richard Ward Chief Executive Officer Lloyd’s - Lloyd’s 360° Risk Insight 2010
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” ... Reducción de la oferta de esta magnitud requeriría un incremento de más del 200 por ciento del precio del petróleo en el momento de impacto, y un aumento del 800 por ciento en 20 años.” - IMF Working Paper: Oil and the World Economy: Some Possible Futures, Michael Kumhof and Dirk Muir, October 2012
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“Reconociendo el efecto de nuestros sesgos cognitivos puede ser el primer paso hacia la construcción de la capacidad de recuperación frente a una futura tormenta perfecta de los desafíos económicos y ambientales.” - World Economic Forum, Global Risks Report
2013, p. 20
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http://www.solarsystemquick.com/the_sun.htm
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Preguntas:
Que tiene esto que ver con el Valle de Sóller?
Crecimiento infinito en un planeta finito?
Se trata de nosotros, que podemos hacer?
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Las buenas noticias: Transition Towns Movement http://www.transitionnetwork.org/
Global Ecovillage Movement http://gen-europe.org
The Internet – the inter-connected world
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Attributos? Criterios? Calidades de calidad? • La Tierra? • El Água? • El Aire?
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Ejemplo 1: Soluciones para la Tierra BioChar: • Gerenciamiento de residuos • Retención de águas • Fertilidad • Sequestro CO2
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Ejemplo 2: Soluciones Água Plantar Arboles: Recuperar fuentes Recuperar fauna Incrementar biodiversidad Generar ingresos = Resiliencia
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Ejemplo 3: Emisiones Coches eléctricos Transporte público = Reducción de costes
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Sostenibilidad en Sóller…
Oportunidad de Impactos:
En la casa
En el trabajo
En el ocio
En reuniones
Y hace pensar…