Accepted Manuscript

Title: Developing integrated explorative and normativescenarios: the case of future land use in a climate-neutralSweden

Author: Rebecka Milestad Asa Svenfelt Karl Henrik Dreborg

PII: S0016-3287(14)00077-9DOI: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1016/j.futures.2014.04.015Reference: JFTR 1928

To appear in:

Received date: 26-11-2013Revised date: 10-4-2014Accepted date: 24-4-2014

Please cite this article as: R. Milestad, A. Svenfelt, K.H. Dreborg, Developing integratedexplorative and normative scenarios: the case of future land use in a climate-neutralSweden, Futures (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2014.04.015

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Developing integrated explorative and normative scenarios: the case of future land use in a climate-neutral Sweden Highlights: We need to consider fulfilling climate targets in a context of external developments Four scenarios were developed with the target “no greenhouse gas emissions in 2060” Participatory backcasting can be a tool for long-term planning A climate-neutral Sweden is possible, but contains major challenges Policy makers should discuss land use in longer time frames than currently applied Abstract Transition from the current oil-based world economy to an economy based on renewable resources can become a strong driving force for land use change. This paper describes the development of integrated explorative and normative scenarios for the analysis of future land use in a climate-neutral Sweden. The aim is to show how backcasting scenarios fulfilling far-reaching greenhouse gas reduction targets can be related to assumptions on possible external developments, in order to contribute to the discussion on future sustainable land use. A target-fulfilling scenario element was combined with an external scenario element, i.e. developments that cannot be influenced by the targeted actors. The scenarios were developed and analysed in collaboration with local actors. Four scenarios were used to describe how land in Sweden could be used when Sweden has achieved zero emissions of greenhouse gases in 2060. The explorative dimension stretched from a situation where there is no international climate agreement to one where there is an international agreement on reducing greenhouse gases. The backcasting dimension illustrated different strategies to achieve the target and stretches from a very influential municipal level to one where the national/EU level is most influential. Key words: participatory backcasting, land use, climate change, contextual scenario element, normative scenario element, Sweden 1. Introduction Climate change is considered one of the most severe challenges humankind has to face. The latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013) establishes that warming of the climate system is unequivocal and will have profound environmental impacts. The well-being of humans, societies and economies will also be severely affected in the years to come (IPCC, 2007). Society needs to respond and adapt to climate change, and also continue and enforce the process of mitigation (reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions). For Sweden, the GHG reduction target for 2020 is 40% below 1990 levels and for 2050 a “vision” of 100% reductions has been set (no net emissions of GHG in the atmosphere) (Swedish Government, 2009). Even if short-term targets may be reached in Sweden (National Institute of Economic Research, 2012), long-term targets will be very difficult to achieve. Transformative change is needed in order to address such challenges, requiring new norms, new policies and new forms of governance (van Vuuren, 2012). In this process, futures studies can be a powerful means to illustrate the transformations needed to achieve set targets (Börjesson et al., 2006). Images of the future can provide examples of what society may be like when targets are fulfilled, and widen the perceptions of what is considered possible (van der Heijden, 1996; Author, 1996). They can also shed light on gaps between

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current policies and policies and actions that would be required to achieve the targets, as well as illuminating conflicts between different societal goals and visions (Höjer & Mattson, 2001). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has drawn the conclusion that fossil fuels are an important source of anthropogenic GHG emissions (IPCC, 2013). Thus, a profound change in the energy supply system on the global and national level is needed in order to mitigate climate change. However, transition from the current oil-based world economy to an economy based on renewable resources will influence land use and become a strong driving force for land use change, since biofuel production competes for land with other land uses. Growing demands for both energy and food will increase the pressure on productive land areas globally (cf. Tilman et al., 2002; Nonhebel, 2005). This will have implications for land use in Sweden too. This paper reports on the scenario development work in the Swedish research project SCALER (Strategies for mitigating Climate chAnge – scenarios for Land usE in Rural areas). The aim of the project was to explore strategies for land use in zero GHG emission (i.e. no use of fuels that contribute to climate change) contexts, by the use of scenarios. The scenarios and the scenario process, which included continuous iterations with stakeholders, are presented here. Four scenarios of future land use were developed, iterated and discussed in two Swedish municipalities and with national experts. The ultimate aim was to contribute to the discussion on sustainable land use and potential trade-offs between different land uses and other policy targets, and to give municipalities a tool to evaluate transformative change in relation to climate mitigation and land use in a longer time frame than they usually work with. 2. Futures studies and scenarios as a tool for exploring zero GHG emission land use futures According to Kahn and Wiener (1967. p. 6), scenarios are “hypothetical sequences of events constructed for the purpose of focusing attention on causal processes and decision-points”, that answer questions of how a hypothetical situation may come about and what alternatives exist to prevent, divert and facilitate such a process. Aligica (2005, p. 816) describes scenarios as “an attempt to draw instruction from a process of hypothetical reasoning that proceeds by drawing out the consequences of an hypothesis which, although it may be anchored in well established facts, refers to future (that is possible) developments”. Kok et al. (2007) argue that scenario development is a relatively under-explored method in land use planning. There are, however, several examples of quantitative and explorative scenarios dealing with land use. Many take the European perspective and several use the IPCC scenarios (Nakićenović et al., 2000) as a basis for building scenarios (e.g. Rounsvell et al., 2006; Eickhout et al., 2007). Rounsvell et al. (2006) use alternative scenarios for future agriculture in Europe in an exploration of how agricultural land use might respond to future environmental change drivers, one of these being climate change. These authors expect a large decline in agricultural area, based on assumptions about far-reaching technological advances and hence a surplus of land. Eickhout et al. (2007) combine economic analyses of agricultural and trade policies (the Common Agricultural Policy and World Trade Organisation agreements) with environmental analyses of land use. Wirsenius et al. (2010) model explorative scenarios in order to estimate land requirements for food production in 2030. They conclude that an expansion of arable land on a global level will be necessary unless changes are made in terms of e.g. food wastage or dietary changes.

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There are, however, fewer examples of land use scenarios based in the futures studies field, within which the present study is based. While there is no generally accepted definition of what the futures studies field is, Amara (1981 p. 26) states that the goals of the field are to form perceptions of the future (the possible), to study likely alternatives (the probable) and to make choices to bring about a particular future (the preferable). Many futures studies methods exist and can be used for different purposes and for answering different research questions (Bell, 2003; Börjesson et al., 2006). In any case, futures studies methods provide possibilities to formulate and illustrate different future developments, a process that can address uncertainties and enhance preparedness for the unforeseeable and unexpected (Author, 2010). If possible futures are being sought, then methods for developing explorative scenarios, or scenario planning (van der Heijden, 1996), may be a suitable tool. Such scenarios can describe future events or developments that are considered possible and can be useful in a process of developing robust strategies (that can prevail in several kinds of external developments) (Börjesson et al., 2006). If preferable futures, or futures fulfilling a specific target, are sought, then methods for developing normative scenarios can be used (Börjesson et al., 2006). Backcasting (e.g. Robinson, 1982, 1990) is one kind of normative scenario approach that is suitable when the problem being examined is complex, multilateral (affecting many sectors and levels of society), major changes are needed, dominant trends are part of the problem, externalities are involved and, finally, “when the time horizon is long enough to allow considerable scope for deliberate choice” (Author, 1996). We argue that these criteria definitely apply to the case of future land use related to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Backcasting has been used particularly to explore goal-fulfilling or desirable futures for the climate change mitigation part, i.e. for decreased energy use and decreased emissions of GHG (e.g. Green and Vergragt, 2002; Höjer et al., 2011; Author et al., 2011). Backcasting scenarios for future land-use are less common, but a few studies take on a backcasting approach. Houet et al. (2010) do not develop target-fulfilling scenarios, but use a backcasting approach to model more efficient long-term water management in future landscapes together with decision makers and local stakeholders (farmers, water managers). The backcasting component in the scenario presented in Houet et al. (2010) is that it explores “what an intensively farm landscape that results in highly degraded water would look like in 2030” and “how will this situation be reached?”. In another approach presented by Patel et al. (2007), long-term visions of possible developments concerning land use in the Northern Mediterranean are developed in participative workshops (exploring trends into the future). These scenarios are then used in a second workshop to work backwards in time to identify actions needed to realise futures that seemed desirable. The backcasting approach used in the present study differed from that employed in the land-use backcasting studies mentioned above. Patel et al. (2007) as well as other authors (e.g. Quist et al., 2001; Green and Vergragt, 2002), frame backcasting more as part of a process that develops paths/trajectories towards desired future states. We, on the other hand, frame backasting as an entire process, from problem and target formulation, via scenario development to analysis of the scenarios in relation to present conditions, in accordance with Höjer and Mattsson (2000), Banister et al. (2000) and Author et al. (2011). In addition, in this backcasting tradition the starting point is a “high-level and highly prioritised target” that should be fulfilled in the scenarios (Börjesson et al., 2006, p. 729). This approach is similar to

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that of Haslauer et al. (2012), who developed GIS-based backcasting suitable for land use planning. The scenario approach is outlined in more detail below. 3. Methodology 3.1 Scenario approach We use a scenario method that combines a normative strategic element with a non-normative contextual (explorative) element (cf. Banister et al., 2000). The normative scenario element focuses on targets and strategies to achieve these targets, while the contextual scenario element focuses on framing conditions beyond the control of the relevant actors forming Swedish land use policy and practice. By framing conditions we thus mean external factors that may have a large impact on how Sweden can best achieve long-term goals in the area of sustainable land use. Author (2004) maintains that more “pure” forms of scenario approaches, such as backcasting, explorative external scenarios and forecasting, may have to be combined when the area of study is complex. For example, there may be an interest in visionary goals and radical change, which speaks for backcasting or a strategic scenario element, while there is also a need to keep track of strong external factors and, hence, to develop exploratory scenarios or contextual scenario elements. van Vliet and Kok (2013) claim that the combination of backcasting with explorative scenarios, which they apply in their study of robust water strategies, is a new one. However, this approach is not entirely novel, although it is uncommon so far. A similar approach was used in the above-mentioned study of sustainable mobility by Banister et al. (2000). The basis for developing the normative element in the present study was the Swedish government’s vision that Sweden has no net emissions of GHG to the atmosphere in 2050 (Swedish Government, 2009). Hence there is an interest in finding ways to attain zero emissions of GHG in the long run and also a wide scope for Sweden to transform its land use. This speaks for a backcasting scenario approach. On the other hand, the way the global energy system develops will have an impact on the political feasibility of a Swedish policy for sustainable land use. An important contextual factor for a Swedish strategy towards non-fossil land use is thus how the international community chooses to cope with the fossil-based energy system and its consequences for climate change (the contextual elements). The scenario development process was based on the following steps: 1) Problem definition/establishment of target; 2) analysis of current trends and forecasts; 3) development of scenarios; 4) analysis in focus groups of consequences and necessary changes; and 5) analysis of goal conflicts and policy implications (Fig. 1). Stakeholders were involved in parts of step 2, as well as in steps 3, 4 and 5. The first step was to identify the target (zero emissions of GHG in Sweden in 2060). A 50 year time frame was chosen in order to give participating actors a temporal distance to allow them to imagine radical transformation. The second step was to analyse current trends and forecasts. This was done through a review of the literature on studies relating to climate change mitigation, land use and the potential for alternative energy sources in Sweden (section 3.2). In addition, interviews and workshops in two Swedish municipalities and on the national level were used to identify the most relevant factors influencing future land use to explore in these contexts (section 3.3).

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In the third step, two contextual scenario elements describing different development paths for the global energy system and two normative scenario elements describing two ways of governing land use were developed (section 4). The scenario elements were then combined into four scenarios (section 5). These scenarios essentially focus on the end-state, where the target has been reached (in 2060), and describe how land use is structured and what production technologies are used. Iterations with stakeholders were done repeatedly in this step. In the fourth step, the consequences of the four scenarios and changes/measures needed to approach them were analysed through focus groups. In the fifth step, the scenarios and changes needed were analysed in relation to other societal goals (i.e. other than climate mitigation), both in the focus groups and by the research team. This article summarises the first three steps, with the focus on the methodological approach.

Figure 1. Schematic illustration of the scenario development process. 3.2 Framing conditions and target Sweden has 290 municipalities. They enjoy a considerable degree of autonomy in terms of planning and building, health and environmental protection, and waste, water and sewage management (Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions, 2013). Sweden’s 20 county administration boards supervise and advise local planning, but municipalities are the most powerful actors in terms of land use planning. At central government level, Sweden has agreed 16 environmental quality objectives, one of which is “reduced climate impact” (Swedish EPA, 2013). However, this target is not anticipated to be reached during the present generation (Swedish EPA, 2013). For 2050, the government has adopted a vision of 100% reduction (no net emissions of GHG to the atmosphere) (Swedish Government, 2009). Against this background, our four scenarios describe how the land in Sweden, and specifically in two municipalities, can be used when Sweden has achieved zero emissions of GHG in 2060. Hence, our focus was on both mitigation of climate change and strategies and consequences for land use, since they are interlinked and mutually dependent on each other. We delineated the zero emissions of GHG target to mean that Sweden only uses renewable energy within the limits of its own self-supporting capacity. Furthermore, measures within forestry and agriculture aim to minimise emissions of nitrous oxide and methane. We applied a production and a consumption perspective, meaning that GHG emissions from Sweden’s consumption of imported goods and from overseas travel were included in the target.

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The scenarios do not focus on technical solutions that are in development or in the pipeline, such as carbon capture and storage, and no non-renewable energy sources are used (we included nuclear power in this category). The reason for this choice is that the objective in the scenarios was to illustrate possibilities for reaching the target where substantial changes in behaviour and land use would be needed. Two municipalities were selected as local case study areas, based on the criteria that: they had documented ambitions concerning climate mitigation and energy efficiency; they were rural municipalities where land uses such as agriculture and forestry play a large role; the population was 30 000-50 000 inhabitants; and the two cases contrasted as much as possible concerning land use. Thus one municipality (1) had a high percentage of forest and a long shore along the Baltic Sea and the other was a land-locked municipality (2) with a high percentage of arable land. 3.3 Participating actors and data collection Local stakeholders and representatives from national authorities were involved at different stages of scenario development. The work progressed through iterations between workshops with stakeholders and back-office work. Similar set-ups have been used by Carlsson-Kanyama et al. (2008) and Author et al. (2011). In each municipality, two workshops with municipal officers and four interviews with land use actors were carried out. On the national level, four land use experts at state agencies and NGOs were interviewed. These interviews and workshops dealt with how future land use might look in 2060, what trends the interviewees found most significant, and what they considered possible to influence on a local, national or global level. This material resulted in the chosen scenario elements and helped to flesh out the scenarios. The interview results were also used for identifying local outcomes of the different scenarios. The interviewees are presented in Table 1. Table 1. Interviewees in the two municipalities and on the national level National experts Municipality 1 Municipality 2 Federation of Swedish farmers (male)

Forester, hobby farmer (male) Local business owner (male)

Swedish National Board of Housing, Building and Planning (female)

Farmer, beef production (female) Rural developer (male)

Swedish Energy Agency (male)

Restaurant owner (male) Farmer (female)

Swedish Forest Agency (male)

Local business developer (male) Slow food representative (female)

Group of municipal officers (3 female, 4 male in workshop 1; 2 female, 4 male in workshop 2)

Group of municipal officers (1 female, 3 male in workshop 1; 3 female, 2 male in workshop 2)

The interviewees were asked to state the two most important factors influencing future land use. In addition, the workshops in the municipalities included an exercise where municipal officers were asked to distinguish between factors that they thought could be influenced on the municipal level, and those that were governed more by global factors. When the scenarios had been fleshed out as qualitative storylines describing land use, climate change, energy sources, energy use, transportation system, housing, urbanisation/ruralisation,

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agricultural production, eating habits and consumption patterns, they were presented in a focus group format in the two municipalities and in a group of national experts (partly the same people that were interviewed). The scenario descriptions were written as newspaper articles about the situation in 2060. The storylines were adjusted to the context in the two municipalities, but the major issues remained similar. Non-figurative maps illustrating land use and major issues in each scenario were also presented to highlight the differences between the scenarios (Figure 3). Six focus groups were formed: three in municipality 1, two in municipality 2 and one with national experts (Table 2). We took extra care not to present any numbers/calculations to the focus groups, since we soon discovered that any numbers used in the discussions (e.g. energy availability, temperatures) imbued the scenarios with an accuracy that we did not want to convey. Table 2. Participants in the focus groups Focus group 1:1, municipality 1

Focus group 2:1, municipality 1

Focus group 3:1, municipality 1

Focus group 1:2, municipality 2

Focus group 2, municipality 2:2

Focus group E, national experts

Municipal manager (male)

Forester, hobby farmer (male)

Restaurant owner (male)

Young farmer, cereals and milk production (female)

Teacher, hobby farmer, chairman for local food association (male)

Federation of Swedish Farmers (male)

Municipal official (male)

Farmer, beef production (male)

Restaurant owner (male)

Young farmer (male), milk production

Local business owner (male)

Swedish National Board of Housing, Building and Planning (female)

Municipal politician (male)

Farmer, beef production (female)

Teacher at restaurant school (male)

Young farmer (male), milk production

Farmer, mutton production, member of local food association (female)

Scientist (female)

Municipal politician (male)

Farmer, milk production (male)

Fish farmer (male)

Young farmer (male), beef production

Organic controller, vegetable farmer (female)

Swedish Energy Agency (male)

Municipal official (male)

Farmer, beef production (male)

Farmer, beef and tourism (female)

Young farmer (female), milk production

Member of local food association (female)

Swedish Forest Agency (male)

Municipal official (female)

Farmer, milk production (male)

Rural developer (female)

Municipal official (female)

Farmer, pig production (female)

Farmer, beef and mutton, rural developer (female)

Farmer, milk production (male)

Owner of conference facility and restaurant (male)

The aim was to form as homogeneous groups as possible, in order to take best advantage of the knowledge in the respective groups in relation to the scenarios. The focus groups were asked for their reactions to the scenarios. Apart from that, the focus questions concerned required changes in order to realize the different futures and goal conflicts in relation to other

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goals. These two questions will be reported in other papers and are beyond the scope of this one. Due to time constraints, not all scenarios were processed in all focus groups. Instead, all groups held thorough discussions on two of the scenarios. Table 3 shows how the scenarios were distributed between the focus groups. Table 3. Future images discussed in the different focus groups. For key to scenarios see Figure 2. Scenario Focus group

1:1 Focus group 2:1

Focus group 3:1

Focus group 2:1

Focus group 2:2

Focus group E

1A x x x x 1B x x 2A x x 2B x x x x The interviews were semi-structured and were recorded, transcribed and analysed thematically (Miles & Huberman, 1994). The subsequent focus group discussions were also recorded, transcribed and analysed thematically. 4. Building blocks of scenarios 4.1 Contextual scenario element Interviews and workshops with stakeholders revealed that the severity of climate change was considered to be one of the most important factors for future land use. The severity of climate change was considered to be dependent on whether or not there will be international agreements on decreasing GHG emissions. Hence, the formative dimension in the contextual scenario element describes whether there will be a global climate change mitigation agreement or not. These alternative development paths were labelled Case A and Case B, respectively. Case A describes a reactive policy largely driven by a crisis in the conventional fossil fuel-based energy supply system, case B a proactive and more balanced international policy for energy transition. It can be argued that with no international commitment at all, a voluntary Swedish policy for zero emissions of GHG will not be politically feasible, or at least extremely costly and difficult. On the other hand, in the event of an economic recession or other surprise occurrence, a radical reduction in fossil fuel use may be something that society has to face and prepare for in any case. As an example, as preparation for different developments, the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (2012) has constructed “five challenging future scenarios for societal security”, one of which focuses on accelerating climate change and a rising oil price. 4.1.1 Case A. Business as usual until a precipitate energy transition starts, forced by a fossil supply crisis. In the absence of a global agreement on reduction of fossil-based energy, many countries continue well into the 2030s to base their economic growth on the use of oil, gas and coal. However, some countries cautiously promote the introduction of non-fossil based energy. Well before 2060, production of oil and gas can no longer meet the demands of the world economy. The production of coal cannot compensate for this and the world faces an energy crisis. The sharp rise in energy prices causes a decade-long recession. In this situation, there is a market-driven rush to utilise bio-fuels, which represent the fastest solution at hand.

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However, the demand for land to grow energy crops pushes food prices to very high levels, to the detriment of poor people. The economic crisis delays investment in technologies for the utilisation of solar, wind and wave energy. Therefore these energy forms only occupy a small share of the global energy mix by 2060. 4.1.2 Case B. Orderly, step-by-step transition from fossil to renewable energy After several failed UN climate change conferences in the beginning of the 21st century, more policy makers become convinced that climate change is a real threat and the conditions for international cooperation improve. A series of summit meetings leads to a far-reaching climate agreement involving an action plan to phase out fossil fuels and to promote a change towards renewable energy forms. Besides energy conservation measures, this includes bio-fuels and the flowing energy forms of solar, wind and wave. Initially the transition hampers economic growth, but eventually it leads to a new wave of economic development based on the new energy technologies. 4.2 Normative scenario element The normative scenario element is a backcasting dimension, focusing on two possible strategies for Sweden to reach the target of zero GHG emissions. In the interviews with municipal actors and national experts, an important divide was apparent between their perspectives on the degree of centralised/localised decision-making. Thus, the degree of centralised decision-making was chosen as the dimension in the normative scenario element. Two extreme developments were chosen to make the scenarios as different from each other as possible. Case 1 in which most political power is centralised to the state/European level, and case 2 that involve radical decentralisation with most political power (and financial resources) moved to the local level. We called these alternative strategies “centralised power” (Case 1) and “localised power” (Case 2). 4.2.1 Case 1. Centralised power In “centralised power”, the transition to a zero GHG emissions society is planned and carried out from the European and/or the state level. The main argument for this strategy is that the state can make coordinated, large-scale investments at the most suitable locations and have a national planning perspective. Thus, the state initiates coordinated large-scale investments in transportation, energy infrastructure and energy efficiency that a single municipality could not afford. Sweden wants to be in the forefront of technological development and places great faith in the future possibilities of exporting climate-smart technology. As a result, certain technologies are boosted and made competitive with economic incentives. The state invests in large-scale energy production projects, energy-efficient housing and housing areas, and coordinated and efficient transportation systems. This centralisation and focus on efficiency on the large scale leads to segregated land use. Cereal production is concentrated to the plain areas of Southern Sweden, while forest plantation is promoted in Northern Sweden. Primary production is carried out in large units, far away from consumers, who live in dense cities. Thus, transportation of goods continues to be important, claiming precious energy resources. 4.2.2 Case 2. Localised power

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In “localised power”, the state level has handed over most responsibilities, resources and decision-making power to the local level, represented by municipalities or similar local institutions. One reason behind this development is that local actors and transition movements are the main driving force in climate change mitigation. This means that local citizens are initiators and/or are asked to participate in a more active way. Local governments have the authority to create e.g. local taxes, legislation and support policies. With this strategy, solutions are adjusted to the particular circumstances in each locality, and are small in scale. Each locality has to produce energy and food most suitable for its conditions, within the frame of the overall target of zero GHG emissions. A major effort is made to induce life-style changes and changes in perception of what quality of life means: from material to immaterial consumption. Despite great freedom to formulate its own policies, there are large limitations to what each municipality can do, since individually they are economically weaker than a large state authority. The decentralisation also produces significant differences in land use throughout the country. Generally, it means that land use is more multi-faceted within each locality and reaches a higher level of multi-functionality as a way to increase resource use efficiency. 5. Four scenarios By combining the contextual scenario elements (Cases A and B) with the normative scenario elements (Cases 1 and 2), we obtained the four scenarios characterised and analysed below. 5.1 Key features of scenarios The four scenarios are described in three different ways below. Figure 2 summarises the main differences and similarities of each scenario, while Table 4 shows how the four futures differ from today’s situation. It is important to note, however, that we have tried to describe the major defining characteristic of each scenario. Thus, while e.g. energy from biomass is an important feature of all futures compared with today’s situation (Table 4), this feature stands out more in the “no international climate treaty” scenarios, and is thus only mentioned there (Figure 2). The third description of the scenarios comprises four non-figurative maps of Sweden, illustrating central features of the scenarios (Figure 3). The purpose of these illustrations was to communicate the scenarios “at a glance”, i.e. not to make accurate maps of land use in Sweden. No international climate treaty

(Case A) An international climate treaty (Case B)

Centralised power (Case 1)

- Energy from biomass - Differentiated land use - Large-scale food production - Intensive forestry - Road transport of goods - Population in urban centres - A world in turmoil - Global energy crisis - Severe climate changes

- Investment in production of electricity - Differentiated land use - Large-scale food production - Environmentally friendly forestry - Rail transport of goods - Population in urban centres - A stable world - No global energy crisis - Less severe climate changes

Localised power

- Energy from biomass - Multifunctional land use

- Investment in production of electricity - Multifunctional land use

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(Case 2) - Small-scale food production - Intensive forestry - Local self-sufficiency - Population close to food and energy production - A world in turmoil - Global energy crisis - Severe climate changes

- Small-scale food production - Environmentally friendly forestry - Local self-sufficiency - Population close to food and energy production - A stable world - No global energy crisis - Less severe climate changes

Figure 2. Summary of characteristics of the four scenarios, showing central features as regards energy production, the global context and land use. 5.1.1 Centralised power combined with no international climate treaty (Scenario A1) There is a focus on biomass production for energy nationwide. Land use is differentiated and segregated between food and energy production, production units are intensive (labour, machinery, inputs) and large in scale in order to produce as much as possible on available land. Cities expand, since they offer more possibilities for short-distance transport and energy-efficient lives. Thus, biomass for food and energy needs to be transported from the place of production to the place of consumption, which is predominantly done by bio-fuelled road transport. 5.1.2 Centralised power combined with an international climate treaty (Scenario 1B) There is a focus on expanding large-scale renewable electricity production nationwide. Since energy can be made available to society as electricity and since large investments are made to expand renewable electricity production, forestry can be carried out in an environmentally friendly way. In all other respects, land use in this scenario is similar to land use in the scenario above. 5.1.3 Localised power combined with no international climate treaty (Scenario 2A) There is a focus on biomass production for energy. Land use is multifunctional and adjusted to the possibilities and potentials of each place. Food and energy can be produced on the same plot of land, since different parts of plants can be used for food or energy. Production units are intensive (mainly in labour) and small in scale in order to produce as much as possible on available land. Larger cities are depopulated, since people want to get closer to food and energy production. In addition, most local areas strive for a high level of self-sufficiency of food and energy. 5.1.4 Localised power combined with an international climate treaty (Scenario 2B) There is a focus on small-scale electricity production for energy. Since energy can be made available to society as electricity, there is room for environmentally friendly forestry. In all other respects, land use in this scenario is similar to land use in the scenario above. Table 4. Comparison of differences between the scenarios in relation to the current situation in Sweden Nointernational

climatetreaty&centralisedpower(Scenario1A)

Internationalclimatetreaty&centralisedpower(Scenario1B)

Nointernationalclimatetreaty&localisedpower(Scenario2A)

Internationalclimatetreaty&localisedpower(Scenario2B)

Energyfrombiomass +++ + +++ +

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Electricityfromwind,wave,solar

+ +++ + +++ Electricityfromhydropower

+/- +/- + + Population(migration) ++ + ++ + TransportofgoodsinSweden

- - - - - - - - Long‐rangepassengertransport

- - - - - - - - - - - Short‐rangepassengertransport

- - - - - - - - - - Imports - - - - - - - - - - - - Economy(households) - +/- - +/- Economy(relativetoothercountries)

- +/- - +/- Tourism(toSweden) +++ + ++ + Consumptionoflocalfoods

- - +++ +++ ConsumptionoffoodsfromallofSweden

++ ++ - - - Milkandmeatconsumption

- - - - - - - - - - Milkandmeatproduction +/- +/- +/- +/- Intensiveforestry +++ + ++ + Biomassforenergyproductiononarableland

+++ + ++ +/- Intensityofproduction1 +++ ++ - - Multifunctionalityoflanduse

- - - - - +++ +++

Figure 3. Non-figurative maps of Sweden, illustrating the four scenarios with zero emissions of GHG. The purpose of these illustrations was to communicate the scenarios to participants in the study. Map 1 shows scenario “centralised power and no international climate treaty”,

1 Intensity: the level of external inputs used (e.g. machinery, pesticides, fertilisers, hybrid and GM seeds and breeds).

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map 2 shows “centralised power and an international climate treaty”, map 3 shows “localised power and no international climate treaty”, and map 4 shows “localised power and an international climate treaty”. Illustrations by Helena Shutrick. When discussed in the two municipalities, adjustments to the locality were made in the description of the scenarios. The focus groups were presented with Figure 2, Table 4, Figure 3 and narratives in the form of newspaper articles “from the future”. These formed the basis for focus group discussions about the scenarios, goal conflicts and changes needed in the present in order to achieve each scenario. 6. Feedback on relevance from the focus groups The participants in the focus groups were asked what scenarios they liked and disliked most. These scenarios were then chosen as topics for discussion. The discussions covered the involved actors’ feedback on the scenarios construction, the relevance of the scenarios and the logics behind it. We aimed for discussions on scenarios that were as different as possible from each other in each focus group. 6.1 Centralised power and no international climate treaty (Scenario 1A) The focus group participants generally considered this scenario to be the least attractive. Many participants pictured a Soviet-like society where the collective ruled the individual needs and wishes. Others considered this to be the most plausible development, arguing that large-scale structures in agriculture and trends in mainstream culture were signs of society moving in this direction already. When asked how this future could be reached, the groups discussing this scenario emphasised strict regulation, taxes and economic policies, improved energy efficiency, value changes in society, and global crisis and instability. Many participants believed that most Swedes would not accept this development unless changes of values in society had taken place first, which would be partly based on the perceived need for change and partly on global instability (energy crisis, climate crisis, economic recession) making people think this development would be the least bad for them. 6.2 Centralised power and an international climate treaty (Scenario 1B) Participants saw many similarities between this scenario and Scenario 1A (e.g. little individual freedom, large-scale solutions, urbanisation, large-scale agricultural production). The difference was that this future was more stable, with major investment by government in railways, electricity production and distribution. In order to achieve this, participants argued that the state level needed to have a clear plan and economic tools to implement all these investments, while at the same time abolishing all local decision making, even the municipalities as administrative structures. This could only be done by redefining democracy, some participants thought. In order to embark on this development, a crisis similar to the one required for the previous scenario would be needed. However, when people had accepted the development, global stability and joint action would be a prerequisite for this scenario to materialise, focus group participants argued. 6.3 Localised power and no international climate treaty (Scenario 2A)

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In the municipalities, the localised power scenarios were generally better received than the centralised futures scenarios. Many participants reasoned that this was a development that they would like to see, especially in respect to the autonomy of municipalities and the abolition of state regulations and authorities. At the same time, they considered this future to be a move back in time – when people were based in one locality, moving short distances, producing their own food. As in the previous scenarios, focus group participants thought that this future could only be reached if environmental and energy crises made people more aware of the need for change and if politicians supported the development with decisions and economic incentives. In this future, regional actors and individuals would be important for the development, while state authorities would move all power and financial resources to the local level. In order to reach this future, participants argued that municipalities would have to include their citizens much more in decision-making, while at the same time localities would have to become more isolated in terms of imports/exports. The global crises would induce people to strive to cultivate their own food and move out of cities. In order for this to be possible, land reform would be needed, some participants argued. 6.4 Localised power and an international climate treaty (Scenario 2B) This was the scenario most participants liked best: autonomous municipalities, a stable world with a climate strategy, and sustainable small-scale solutions. However, they also saw the drawbacks with regional isolation, with many people striving for more wealth accumulation than foreseen, and the possibility of going back to the time when there was no welfare state. Many participants also acknowledged that this future would ask a lot of its citizens in terms of ingenuity, innovativeness and practical skills. In order to get there, partly similar issues were raised as for Scenario 2A. Generally, the participants thought that the political and economic system would have to change so as to favour small-scale solutions and local autonomy. This, in combination with soaring energy and food prices and societal values favouring quality of life rather than material wealth, would help this future to materialise. Land reform would enable people to move out from cities and expansion of the electricity infrastructure would free land for cultivation. 7. Discussion This study sought to explore strategies for land use in zero GHG emissions contexts by use of scenario methodology. The method chosen to do this was through four scenarios describing future land use, based on strategic and contextual scenario elements in an overall backcasting process. Iteration and input from stakeholders in the backcasting process were integral. The long-term aim was to contribute to the discussion on sustainable land use and potential trade-offs and to give municipalities, as well as other agents with influence on land use, a tool to evaluate transformative change in relation to climate mitigation and land use in a longer time frame than they usually work with. Why is it important to consider futures in which Sweden makes these drastic GHG emission reductions in a world that is unlikely to do the same? One reason is that the Swedish government has adopted a vision in which the country will be climate-neutral by 2050. The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) (2012) has been tasked by the Swedish government with developing a roadmap for Sweden with no net emissions of GHG by 2050. They argue that this can be achieved by: 1) large domestic emission reductions, 2) increased net uptake of carbon in forests and fields and 3) purchase of emission allowances on the

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international market (Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, 2012). In its report, the Swedish EPA assumes that carbon capture will be used in some parts of the industry and that the captured carbon dioxide is injected and stored deep under the seabed off the coast of Norway. Another assumption is that protection of forest areas of value for biodiversity is extensive and that this contributes to increased carbon uptake by the forest. However, we would counter argue that the carbon sink capacity may have to be distributed on a global level, considering that some countries do not have any access to such resources and are more densely populated, and that using yet to be developed technologies as measures is risky and will not create sufficiently robust and flexible trajectories. Thus, while other actors seem to think that far-reaching emission reductions are not plausible, we have focused on this “difficult” scenario to spur discussion. Research is needed that can contribute to the discussion on how these targets could be reached, regardless of carbon capture and sinks, and what it would take. Another reason is the gap between current international agreements on GHG emissions and the need for reductions of emissions according to experts (cf. IPCC, 2007). In other words, thinking about what the reductions needed could imply for an industrialised society such as Sweden can be an eye-opener. Furthermore, developments towards zero GHG emissions futures are important to explore in light of external developments, i.e. factors beyond Sweden’s immediate control. For example, Sweden may face economic crises and increasing fossil fuel prices that force it into transition. Exploring Swedish strategies in cases where the global community is not on the same track may therefore provide learning about society’s capacity to adapt to the eventuality that GDP growth halts and fossil fuels have to be abandoned. It can also provide learning about the consequences of planning for zero emissions as a sustainability strategy. This was the main reason we used a combination of a contextual scenario element and a normative/strategic scenario element (Banister et al., 2000). 7.1 A note on the method It is important to remember that the scenarios developed can be considered likely or unlikely, but that they are only a few among countless possible futures. We cannot know what the future will be like, but we need mental models of it in order to prepare for change and uncertainty (Author, 2010). Thus, it is not the scenarios as such that are important, but our ability to discuss a wide range of possible and/or desirable futures, and what would seem to be workable strategies to get where we want. The dimension in the contextual scenario element was chosen to make the scenarios relevant to the actors involved in the study, i.e. people working in municipal and national authorities. The choice of the climate treaty/no climate treaty dimensions was largely based on the results from interviews with local and national land use experts and the fact that they considered the extent of future climate change to be most important for future land use. The choice of the normative scenario element dimension was also largely based on the results from interviews with local and national land use experts, and subsequently drawn out to extremes to make the scenarios as different from each other as possible. The expectations expressed in the interviews and hypothetical variations of these expectations were used to “flesh out” the storylines (in line with van der Heijden, 1996). The normative scenario element resulted in the strategies used in order to fulfil the target set for the study. In other words, stakeholders influenced the research to a high degree.

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We decided to avoid numbers and calculations in the storylines presented to the focus groups discussing the scenarios. The main reason for this was that numbers, however uncertain, convey an illusion of accuracy that we wanted to avoid. The scenarios were more like sketches or narratives. Written as newspaper articles from the target year, they were sufficient to set the actors involved on track towards identifying required measures and agents for change (cf. Author, 2010).

In summary, we used participatory backcasting methodology in combination with an explorative scenario approach. We combined a target-fulfilling element of the scenarios with external developments that are outside the scope of influence of the targeted actors. This approach is not entirely novel, but so far not common. A similar approach was used in a study of sustainable mobility by Banister et al. (2000). The scenarios developed in that study combined a strategic element with a contextual element. In a recent study, Kok et al. (2011) presented a study that used backcasting and exploratory scenarios concerning the future of Europe’s water resources. However, while Kok et al. (2011) included a backcasting workshop in an exploratory scenario development process, similar to Houet et al. (2010) and Patel et al. (2007), ours was a backcasting study that developed scenarios with both backcasting elements and exploratory elements. 7.2 Land use planning in a climate-neutral Sweden In the scenarios used in the present study, the Swedish strategies for land use planning are based on two extremes. In one extreme, power is centralised on the European and national state level. In the second extreme, power concerning land use and target fulfilment is delegated to the local level. Although this abolition of either the central or the local level is unlikely, it gives opportunity to discuss differing possibilities to steer development towards the targets. On what level in society should land use be governed? Is there an optimal level? A probable answer is that more than one level of governance should be involved, i.e. a polycentric system of governance so that actions can be taken nationally and locally (cf. Ostrom, 2010). In this way, consideration can be given to national goals at the same time as local needs are negotiated. The national level has the capacity to make large-scale investments and focus on the “big issues”, while local governance can more easily find multifunctional land uses. If land can be used for both food and energy production, this decreases the conflict between these two needs in a future without fossil fuels. For example, cereal production for food can simultaneously generate straw biomass for energy purposes. However, while there is great potential in a higher degree of multifunctional land use than is practised in industrial countries today, trade-offs will also have to be made (Foley et al., 2005). If an agricultural field is used for food production, energy production and a number of other ecosystem services, the amount of cereals that can be harvested for food will be lower than in the case where the sole focus is food production (Foley et al., 2005). Another way to soften the conflict between energy and food production from biomass is to focus on development of electricity production from wind, wave, water and sun. This frees up land, since less energy production is needed from the land/biomass resource. Sweden is currently dependent on large amounts of land resources in other countries through imports of goods, food and animal feed (Johansson, 2005). This also includes land for generation of the ecosystem services needed to support production. In the scenarios, we cut down on imports and assumed that the domestic support area covered net consumption needs. This means that imports of animal feed and food were also cut to zero (net). At the same time, we cut the consumption of meat to equal the production level. One option would be to

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decrease meat consumption even further, so that Sweden mainly raised animals that feed on what humans cannot digest themselves, i.e. grazing animals. Sweden is a country with a low population density, a large forest cover, long shores, flowing waters and a democratic governance system. Thus, the potential to be self-sufficient in renewable energy – from biomass or from wind, water and other sources – is large. However, this is not the situation in most other European countries, or in the rest of the world. The research reported in this article only considers the possibility for Sweden to become climate-neutral based on its own resources. A second step would be to adjust the results after adding a second goal, namely that of global justice. By this we mean the same available energy for each person on Earth, while at the same time being climate-neutral. Sharing climate burdens equally has been discussed within international negotiations. Suggestions for burden-sharing rules between the OECD countries have been suggested by Norway and Australia, while during the Kyoto protocol negotiations, the issue of how to differentiate climate targets between states was at least on the agenda (Ringius et al., 1998). This is also connected to the question of territorial equity, or geographical inequalities (Zuindeau, 2007). It can be argued that resources disposal should also serve to meet the needs of inhabitants in other territories, and hence that Sweden’s capacity to store carbon in forests, for example, cannot be used for national purposes only. It can also be argued, and this was one of the criticisms of the Swedish EPA’s roadmap for 2050, that Sweden should export bioenergy – considering the abundant resources and the limited population (e.g. KTH, 2012). 8. Conclusions Municipalities and other planning agents make long-term and short-term plans, but very few use longer time frames than 10-20 years. This study challenged the municipal officers and politicians who participated, since they had to think much beyond their usual time horizon. However, the issues of climate change, climate change mitigation and future land use were not new to the participants, and thus they were able to offer valuable inputs and respond to the challenges posed by the issues raised. The study set out to illustrate how the target of a “climate-neutral Sweden” could be reached and what this would imply in terms of land use in two municipalities. The scenarios did not describe probable or desirable futures, but were useful as a point of departure for discussions on priorities, lifestyles, needs and trade-offs. We believe that similar discussions will be needed to a much larger extent in the daily practices of municipal officers and policy makers if the vision of no-GHG emissions Sweden by 2050 is to be possible in practice. Only through engaging with these issues will it be possible to identify potential trade-offs, such as that between biomass production for food and biomass production for energy. Furthermore, since Sweden has an additional 15 environmental quality objectives and a number of other societal goals concerning public health, equity, economic growth, etc., there will most probably be goal conflicts with the target explored in this study. How to resolve these conflicts will be a major challenge in the next 50 years. 9. Acknowledgements The Swedish Research Council Formas funded this research. The authors are grateful for the contributions of all interviewees and focus group participants and thank Helena Shutrick for providing the scenario illustrations and Christine Ambell and Sarah Lagerberg-Klein for transcribing the interviews.

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10. References Aligica, P.D. 2005. Scenarios and the growth of knowledge: Notes on the epistemic element in scenario building. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 72 (7): 815–824. Amara, A. 1981. The futures field: searching for definitions and boundaries. The Futurist 15 (1): 25-29. Banister et al 2000, European Transport Policy and Sustainable Mobility. London: Spon Press. Bell, W. 2003. Foundations of Futures Studies – History, Purposes and Knowledge, vol 1. Transaction, New Brunswick, New Jersey. Börjeson, L., Höjer, M., Dreborg, K-H., Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. 2006. Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user’s guide. Futures 38 (7): 723–739. Carlsson-Kanyama, A., Dreborg, K.H., Moll, H.C. and Padovan, D. 2008. Participative backcasting: A tool for involving stakeholders in local sustainability planning. Futures 40 (1): 34-46. Author, 1996 Author, 2004 Eickhout, B., van Meijl, H., Tabeau, A. and van Rheenen, T. 2007. Economic and ecological consequences of four European land use scenarios. Land Use Policy 24(3): 562-575. Foley, J.A., DeFries, R., Asner, G.P., Barford, C., Bonan, G., Carpenter, S.R., Chapin, F.S., Coe, M.T., Daily, G.C., Gibbs, H.K., Helkowski, J.H., Holloway, T., Howard, E.A., Kucharik, C.J., Monfreda, C., Patz, J.A., Prentice, I. C., Ramankutty, N. and Snyder, P.K. 2005. Global consequences of land use. Science 309 (5734): 570-574. Green, K. and Vergragt, P. 2002. Towards sustainable households: a methodology for developing sustainable technological and social innovations, Futures 34 (5): 381-400. Haslauer, H., Biberacher, M. and Blaschke, T. 2012. GIS-based Backcasting: An innovative method for parameterization of sustainable spatial planning and resource management. Futures 44 (4): 292-302. Höjer, M. and Mattsson, L-G. 2000. Determinism and backcasting in future studies”, Futures 32: 613-634. Höjer, M., Gullberg A. and Pettersson, R. 2011. Backcasting images of the future city – time and space for sustainable development. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 78(5): 819-834.

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Houet, T., Loveland, T.R., Hubert-Moy, L., Gaucherel, C., Napton, D., Barnes. C.A., and Sayler, K. 2010. Exploring subtle land use and land cover changes: a framework for future landscape studies. Landscape Ecol 25: 249–266. DOI 10.1007/s10980-009-9362-8. IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (eds). Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. IPCC, 2013. Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Working group I contribution to the IPCC fifth assessment report. Final Draft Underlying Scientific-Technical Assessment Johansson, S. 2005. The Swedish foodprint. Dissertation. Uppsala: Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Acta Universitatis agriculturae Sueciae, 1652-6880; 2005:56. Kahn, H. and Wiener, A.J. 1967. The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next 33 Years. New York, Macmillan. Kok, K., Verburg, P. and Veldkamp, T. 2007. Integrated assessment of the land system: the future of land use. Land use policy 24:517–520. doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2006.04.007 Kok, K., van Vliet, M., Bärlund, I., Dubel, A. and Sendzimir, J. 2011. Combining participative backcasting and exploratory scenario development: Experiences from the SCENES project. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 78 (5): 835-851. KTH, 2013. Remittering av rapporten om klimatfärdplan 2050 [Referral response to the report Climate Roadmap 2050]. KTH president. (In Swedish) Miles, M.B and Huberman, A.M. 1994. Qualitative Data Analysis. An Expanded Sourcebook. 2nd edition. Sage Publications. London, UK. Nakićenović, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., de Vries, B., Fenhann, J., Gaffin, S., Gregory, K., Gruebler, A., Jung, T.Y., Kram, T., La Rovere, E.L., Michaelis, L., Mori, S., Morita, T., Pepper, W., Pitcher, H., Price, L., Raihi, K., Roehrl, A., Rogner, H.–H., Sankovski, A., Schlesinger, M., Shukla, P., Smith, S., Swart, R., van Rooijen, R., Victor, N. and Dadi, Z. 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K. Available online at: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/ emission/index.htm Nonhebel, S. 2005. Renewable energy and food supply: will there be enough land? Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 9: 191-201. Ostrom, E. 2010. Polycentric systems for coping with collective action and global environmental change. Global Environmental Change 20: 550-557. Patel, M., Kok, K. and Rothman, D. S. 2007. Participatory scenario construction in land use analysis: An insight into the experiences created by stakeholder involvement in the Northern Mediterranean. Land Use Policy 24 (3): 546 561.

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Quist, J., Knot, M., Young, W., Green, K., and Vergragt, P. 2001. Strategies towards sustainable households using stakeholder workshops and scenarios. International Journal of Sustainable Development 4 (2001) 75–89. Ringius, L., Torvanger, A. and Holtsmark, B. 1998. Can multi-criteria rules fairly distribute climate burdens?: OECD results from three burden sharing rules. Energy Policy 26(10): 777-793. Robinson, J. B., 1990. Futures under glass: A recipe for people who hate to predict. Futures 22 (8): 820-842. Robinson, J.B. 1982. Energy backcasting: a proposed method of policy analysis. Energy Policy, 10 (4): 337–344. Rounsevell, M.D.A., Reginster, I., Araújo, M.B., Carter, T.R., Dendoncker, N., Ewert, F., House, J.I., Kankaanpää, S., Leemans, R., Metzger, M.J., Schmit, C., Smith, P. and Tuck, G. 2006. A coherent set of future land use change scenarios for Europe. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 114: 57–68. Author, 2010 Author et al. 2011 Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions, 2013. The role of the municipalities [online]. Available at: http://english.skl.se/municipalities_county_councils_and_regions/the_role_of_the_municipalities [accessed 12 March 2013]. Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB). 2012. Five challenging future scenarios for societal security. Future developments that could affect the management of civil contingencies: Report of the project in MSB’s appropriation directions for 2012. https://www.msb.se/RibData/Filer/pdf/26562.pdf Swedish Environmental Protection Agency. 2012. Underlag till en färdplan för ett Sverige utan klimatutsläpp 2050 (Basis for a roadmap for a Sweden without greenhouse gas emissions in 2050) Report 6537. (In Swedish). Swedish EPA. 2013. Environmental objectives. Available at: http://miljömål.se/sv/Environmental-Objectives-Portal [accessed 2013-11-19]. Swedish Government. 2009. En sammanhållen klimat- och energipolitik - Klimat [A sustainable energy and climate policy – Climate]. In Swedish., Regeringens proposition 2008/09:162. Stockholm, The Government Offices. Tilman, D., Cassman, K. G., Matson, P. A. , Naylor, R. and Polasky, S. 2002. Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices. Nature 418: 671-677. van der Heijden, K. 1996. Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, Wiley, Chichester.

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van Vliet, M. and K. Kok. 2013. Combining backcasting and exploratory scenarios to develop robust water strategies in face of uncertain futures. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change: DOI 10.1007/s11027-013-9479-6 van Vuuren, DP., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Brew-Hammond, A., Kammen, D., Modi, V., Nilsson, M. and Smith, KR. 2012. An energy vision: the transformation towards sustainability - interconnected challenges and solutions. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 4(1): 18-34. DOI: 10.1016/j.cosust.2012.01.004 Wirsenius, S., Azar, C. and Berndes, G. 2010. How much land is needed for global food production under scenarios of dietary changes and livestock productivity increases in 2030? Agricultural Systems 103 (9): 621-638. Zuindeau, B. 2007. Territorial equity and sustainable development. Environmental Values 16 (2): 253-268.

Figure 1. Schematic illustration of the scenario development process.

Table 1. Interviewees in the two municipalities and on the national level.

Table 2. Participants in the focus groups.

Table 3. Future images discussed in the different focus groups. For key to scenarios see

Figure 2. Summary of characteristics of the four scenarios, showing central features as regards energy production, the global context and land use.

Table 4. Comparison of differences between the scenarios in relation to the current situation in Sweden.

Figure 3. Non-figurative maps of Sweden, illustrating the four scenarios with zero emissions of GHG. The purpose of these illustrations was to communicate the scenarios to participants in the study. Map 1 shows scenario “centralised power and no international climate treaty”, map 2 shows “centralised power and an international climate treaty”, map 3 shows “localised power and no international climate treaty”, and map 4 shows “localised power and an international climate treaty”. Illustrations by Helena Shutrick. [intended for colour reproduction in Web and print]

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Figure1

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No international climate treaty

(Case A)

An international climate treaty (Case

B)

Centralised

power

(Case 1)

- Energy from biomass

- Differentiated land use

- Large-scale food production

- Intensive forestry

- Road transport of goods

- Population in urban centres

- A world in turmoil

- Global energy crisis

- Severe climate changes

- Investment in production of electricity

- Differentiated land use

- Large-scale food production

- Environmentally friendly forestry

- Rail transport of goods

- Population in urban centres

- A stable world

- No global energy crisis

- Less severe climate changes

Localised

power

(Case 2)

- Energy from biomass

- Multifunctional land use

- Small-scale food production

- Intensive forestry

- Local self-sufficiency

- Population close to food and

energy production

- A world in turmoil

- Global energy crisis

- Severe climate changes

- Investment in production of electricity

- Multifunctional land use

- Small-scale food production

- Environmentally friendly forestry

- Local self-sufficiency

- Population close to food and energy

production

- A stable world

- No global energy crisis

- Less severe climate changes

Figure2

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Figure3

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National experts Municipality 1 Municipality 2

Federation of Swedish

farmers (male)

Forester, hobby farmer (male) Local business owner (male)

Swedish National Board of

Housing, Building and

Planning (female)

Farmer, beef production (female) Rural developer (male)

Swedish Energy Agency

(male)

Restaurant owner (male) Farmer (female)

Swedish Forest Agency

(male)

Local business developer (male) Slow food representative (female)

Group of municipal officers (3 female,

4 male in workshop 1; 2 female, 4

male in workshop 2)

Group of municipal officers (1 female,

3 male in workshop 1; 3 female, 2

male in workshop 2)

Table1

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Focus group

1:1,

municipality 1

Focus group

2:1,

municipality 1

Focus group

3:1,

municipality 1

Focus group

1:2,

municipality 2

Focus group 2,

municipality 2:2

Focus group E,

national

experts

Municipal

manager

(male)

Forester,

hobby farmer

(male)

Restaurant

owner (male)

Young farmer

(female)

Teacher, hobby

farmer, chairman

for local food

association (male)

Federation of

Swedish

Farmers (male)

Municipal

official (male)

Farmer, beef

production

(male)

Restaurant

owner (male)

Young farmer

(male)

Local business

owner (male)

Swedish

National Board

of Housing,

Building and

Planning

(female)

Municipal

politician

(male)

Farmer, beef

production

(female)

Teacher at

restaurant school

(male)

Young farmer

(male)

Farmer, mutton

production,

member of local

food association

(female)

Scientist

(female)

Municipal

politician

(male)

Farmer, milk

production

(male)

Fish farmer

(male)

Young farmer

(male)

Organic controller,

vegetable farmer

(female)

Swedish Energy

Agency (male)

Municipal

official (male)

Farmer, beef

production

(male)

Farmer, beef and

tourism (female)

Young farmer

(female)

Member of local

food association

(female)

Swedish Forest

Agency (male)

Municipal

official

(female)

Farmer, milk

production

(male)

Rural developer

(female)

Municipal

official

(female)

Farmer, pig

production

(female)

Farmer, beef and

mutton, rural

developer

(female)

Farmer, milk

production

(male)

Owner of

conference

facility and

restaurant (male)

Table2

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Scenario Focus group

1:1

Focus group

2:1

Focus group

3:1

Focus

group 2:1

Focus

group 2:2

Focus

group E

1A x x x x

1B x x

2A x x

2B x x x x

Table3

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No international climate treaty & centralised power (Scenario 1A)

International climate treaty & centralised power (Scenario 1B)

No international climate treaty & localised power (Scenario 2A)

International climate treaty & localised power (Scenario 2B)

Energy from biomass +++ + +++ +

Electricity from wind, wave, solar

+ +++ + +++

Electricity from hydropower

+/- +/- + +

Population (migration) ++ + ++ +

Transport of goods in Sweden

- - - - - - - -

Long-range passenger transport

- - - - - - - - - - -

Short-range passenger transport

- - - - - - - - - -

Imports - - - - - - - - - - - -

Economy (households) - +/- - +/-

Economy (relative to other countries)

- +/- - +/-

Tourism (to Sweden) +++ + ++ +

Consumption of local foods

- - +++ +++

Consumption of foods from all of Sweden

++ ++ - - -

Milk and meat consumption

- - - - - - - - - -

Milk and meat production +/- +/- +/- +/-

Intensive forestry +++ + ++ +

Biomass for energy production on arable land

+++ + ++ +/-

Intensity of production1 +++ ++ - -

Multifunctionality of land use

- - - - - +++ +++

1 Intensity: the level of external inputs used (e.g. machinery, pesticides, fertilisers, hybrid and GM seeds and breeds).

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Title

Developing integrated explorative and normative scenarios: the case of future land use in a

climate-neutral Sweden

Authors

Rebecka Milestad1*

, Åsa Svenfelt1, Karl Henrik Dreborg

1

1Division of Environmental Strategies Research, Department of Sustainable Development,

Environmental Science and Engineering, School of Architecture and the Built Environment,

Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm, Sweden.

*Corresponding author. E-mail address: rebecka.milestad@abe.kth.se, postal address:

Drottning Kristinas väg 30, S-100 44 Stockholm, Sweden. Phone: 0046-8-790 8818