developing a web-based flood forecasting system for...

Hydrological Sciences–Journal–des Sciences Hydrologiques, 49(6) December 2004

Open for discussion until 1 June 2005

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Developing a Web-based flood forecasting system for reservoirs with J2EE

CHUN-TIAN CHENG1, K. W. CHAU2, XIANG-YANG LI1 & GANG LI1

1 Department of Civil Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, 116024 Dalian, China [email protected]

2 Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China

Abstract A flood forecasting system is a crucial component in flood mitigation. For certain important large-scale reservoirs, cooperation and communication among federal, state, and local stakeholders are required when heavy flood events are en-countered. The Web-based environment is emerging as a very important development and delivery platform for real-time flood forecasting systems. In this paper, the findings of a case study are presented of the development of a Web-based flood forecasting system for reservoirs using Java 2 platform Enterprise Edition (J2EE). J2EE of Sun Microsystems is chosen as the development solution for the Web-based flood forecasting system, Weblogic 6.0 of BEA as the container provider, and JBuilder 7.0 of Borland as the development tool. One of the key objectives in this project is to establish a collaborative platform for flood forecasting via Web tech-nology in order to render hydrological models and data available to stakeholders and experts involved and thus offer an efficient medium for transferring and sharing information, knowledge and experiences among them. Compared with general Web-based query systems and traditional flood forecasting systems, the Web-based flood forecasting system is more focused on the on-line analysis of model-based forecasting of floods and provides opportunities for improving the transfer of information and knowledge from the hydrological scientists and managers to decision makers. Finally, a prototype system is used to demonstrate the system application. Key words collaborative problem solving; EJB; flood forecasting; J2EE; World Wide Web

Développement sur Internet avec J2EE d’un système de prévision de crue pour barrages Résumé Un système de prévision de crue est une composante cruciale de la gestion des crues. Pour certains grands barrages, la coopération et la communication entre les acteurs fédéraux, provinciaux et locaux sont nécessaires pour appréhender les crues importantes. L’environnement Internet émerge en tant que plateforme très importante pour le développement et la mise à disposition de systèmes de prévision de crue en temps réel. Dans cet article, nous présentons les résultats du développement sur Internet d’un système de prévision de crue au niveau de barrages, qui utilise la plateforme Java 2 Enterprise Edition (J2EE). Ont été choisis J2EE de Sun Microsystems comme solution de développement pour le système de prévision de crue sur Internet, Weblogic 6.0 de BEA comme fournisseur hôte, et Jbuilder 7.0 de Borland comme outil de développement. Un des objectifs clés de ce projet est d’établir une plateforme de collaboration pour la prévision de crue via la technologie Internet, afin de rendre les modèles hydrologiques et les données disponibles pour les acteurs et les experts impliqués, et ainsi d’offrir un medium efficace pour le transfert et le partage d’informations, de connaissances et d’expériences. Par comparaison avec des systèmes généraux d’interrogation sur Internet et avec des systèmes traditionnels de prévision de crue, le système de prévision de crue sur Internet a plus vocation à l’analyse en ligne des résultats des modèles de prévision de crue et donne l’opportunité d’améliorer le transfert d’information et de connaissance des hydrologues vers les décideurs. Une application du système prototype est présentée. Mots clefs résolution de problème en collaboration; EJB; prévision de crue; J2EE; Internet

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INTRODUCTION Floods remain one of the most frequent and devastating natural hazards worldwide. While a large number of strategies and methods are available today to address flood hazards, a flood forecasting system is a crucial component in flood mitigation. The past few decades have witnessed a great success in flood forecasting systems, made possible by the integration of various models with computer science and communica-tions. This integration enables increased flood warning lead-time and in turn can reduce flood damage and save lives (Ford, 2001). Traditionally, flood forecasting is a complex task, including real-time data acquisition and processing, precipitation analysis, choice of watershed model, pro-cessing of modelling inputs, as well as the manipulation, reporting and display of results, warning dissemination and public response. For certain important large-scale reservoirs, cooperation and communication among federal, state, and local stake-holders is required when heavy flood events are encountered. The final disseminated information about the flood forecasting results is commonly the product of reports from a combination of different experts among the related agencies. Although much progress has been made in flood forecasting integration, the majority of flood forecasting systems are heavily based upon traditional means of communication, such as local area networks; most information related to these systems is inaccessible by the general public and other organizations, and there is a lack of data sharing and collaborative problem solving. The advent of the Internet has given rise to many new applications of existing technology. There is now increased interest in pursuing the development of specific applications on the World Wide Web. Various industries have migrated from being platform-specific to Web-based. A variety of Web-based applications have emerged in different fields (Altendort et al., 2002; Frohlich & Westbrook, 2002; Li et al., 2002; Molenaar & Songer, 2001; Ng et al., 2002, 2003; Zhu et al., 2001). Recently, Al-Sabhan et al. (2003) discussed the tremendous potential of Web technology in the application of real-time watershed analysis and presented a real-time hydrological model for flood prediction using GIS and the WWW. The Web-based environment is emerging as a very important development and delivery platform for real-time flood forecasting systems and watershed management decision making (Miller et al., 2004). The study described herein is aimed at the development of a Web-based flood forecasting system oriented to large or medium-scale reservoirs and contributes to updating a version of the national flood control management system for reservoirs in China based on Client/Server (Cheng & Chau, 2004). The latter has been installed on more than 100 reservoirs in China during the past six years. Fundamental to this exploitation are information and collaborative problem solving. One of the key objectives is to establish a collaborative platform for flood forecasting via Web technology in order to share and utilize the knowledge and experience of experts among the multi-agencies. Another goal is to enrich the information related to flood forecasting. In order to improve understanding of the system, a prototype Web-based flood forecasting system for reservoirs is presented and demonstrated here.

Developing a Web-based flood forecasting system for reservoirs

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MAIN ISSUES OF WEB-BASED APPLICATION IN FLOOD FORECASTING DOMAINS The development of model-based Web applications is still in its infancy. Building a real-time flood forecasting system for reservoirs with new Web-techniques remains a novel application. Accessibility Data accessibility and participation are among the issues that need to be considered in the development of a successful flood forecasting systems (Al-Sabhan et al., 2003). Flood forecasting information for reservoirs is usually held by reservoir and river agencies. Hydrological modelling tends to remain in the domain of the model deve-loper and to be applied within local area networks. Other organizations and researchers have difficulty in making effective use of these data and models. The widespread participation of individuals and experts from diverse groups within the flood control management agencies and research institutions is an important factor in improving forecasting accuracy and reliability. Flood forecasting is usually a sophisticated, highly interactive procedure. The process is complicated, difficult to learn, and highly labour-intensive, requiring a substantial commitment of human resources. As a result, the expertise acquired by one individual through extensive hands-on training and experience with a specific model or system is not easily transferred to another person (Boyle et al., 2000). Immense efforts would be necessary for sharing the expert knowledge and experience, and supporting distributed, collaborative problem solving. Initially, computers within flood control agencies were connected via local area networks (LANs), allowing teams and workgroups to share flood forecasting information more easily. At the same time, flood forecasts were made by small teams across organizational boundaries. However, considering both the fact that most reservoirs are generally located in remote places and the absence of experts and lack of rapid communication in China, the quality of forecasts made by these small teams is often not very good. There is an increasing emphasis on more widespread collaboration among the related agencies and experts in order to improve the quality of forecasts. The Web technology is currently a convenient and cost-effective tool for information storage, sharing, retrieval and modelling analysis. This new style of application development based on components has become increasingly popular and can be developed to support the entire flood forecasting process, including the dissemination of real-time data, and the acquisition of flood predictions of reservoirs from different agencies and experts. It links with a Web-enabled database management system in order to get the same data for flood forecasting in real time and to distinguish forecast results of different agencies and experts in a timely manner. By querying and comparing the different results, users can modify and revise their analysis, thus more easily reaching reasonable conclusions. This direct access, as a means of allowing wider involve-ment and participation in the flood forecasting process, is an important prerequisite of flood control management for reservoirs.


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On-line flood forecasting Flood forecasting usually involves many uncertain factors. Moreover, a large number of people with different types and levels of expertise, who are working in a variety of roles, both separately and together, are required for making accurate and reliable flood forecasts. At present, Internet technology can be employed to support data collection, processing, scientific computation as well as information dissemination. It has shown a glimpse of possibility toward establishing a rich, flexible, and easily operated flood forecasting system. The Web-based flood forecasting system for reservoirs is charac-terized by the cooperative work of users in geographically distributed locations. Large-scale databases are the basis of the Web-based flood forecasting system for reservoirs. Compared with the general Web-based query system, the Web-based flood forecasting system is more focused on the on-line analysis of model-based forecasting of floods. The Web-based application in flood forecasting domains ensures that users have immediate access to current and complete information to accomplish an entire procedure of flood forecasting in a short time. The collaborative manner involves intricate calculations that apply the various hydrological models to predict flow hydro-graphs, flow peaks, etc. Subsequent to each successful computation, databases are updated and results with graphics or tables or a mixture of both are then displayed. The whole procedure needs to deal with a large amount of historical and real-time data. Maintaining consistent query response and distinguishing different users’ results are very complex tasks when a large number of concurrent requests are being submitted. DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEB-BASED FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR RESERVOIRS The main objectives of the project are to design and develop a prototype Web-based flood forecasting system for reservoirs in order to perform the following: – to support collaboration and group processes for heavy flood events among multi-

agencies, such as governments (central, provincial and local), agencies (Ministry of Water Resources, river bureaux), interest groups (water supply companies, hydropower councils), and so on. Group members range from members of organizations to individual experts who may be model developers or decision makers.

– to give the general public access to the disseminated information and to have immediate access to current and complete information to enable experts and operators to carry out the procedure of flood forecasting in a short time. The former serves the increasing need of the public enquiring about emergencies during flood seasons, providing information on rainfall and reservoir levels at main control points. The latter enriches the information related to flood forecasting, such as the most recent data about rainfall, reservoir level, inflow and outflow, and analysis results of different agencies and experts for a particular flood event.

– to improve flood forecasting accuracy and reliability.


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Conceptual architecture Figure 1 shows the architecture of the prototype Web-based flood forecasting system for reservoirs. From Fig. 1, the first phase of the forecasting system requires the collection and transmission of real-time hydrological data, including precipitation, streamflow, river stage, and other significant variables. The system may rely on manual reading of rain-gauges and stream gauges with the information being uploaded to a central point for evaluation by office personnel, possibly through simple “look-up” tables. It could also be fully automated with computer modelling of the entire watershed. However, whether the data acquisition system is manual or automated, the information transfer is similar. All data are processed into a standard format for forecasting. The data can be stored in a database of the data provider at a river commission/agency or reservoir department and then accessed through the Internet. Once the data are updated, all users can get the same data by browsing the web-based flood forecasting system. Therefore, it provides a chance for experts and agencies in remote areas to join in a collaborative forecasting process. After transmission of the real-time precipitation and river stage data to the data-base of the data provider, a watershed hydrological model or models will be selected for forecasting of a flood hydrograph. At the same time, the characteristics of the particular flood event, including peak flow value and time, volume of flood runoff for various durations such as 3 and 5 days, and the likelihood of exceedence, are deter-mined to evaluate and depict the real-time flood magnitude. Most hydrological models are sensitive to the initial conditions of the antecedent soil moisture (ASM). So the modification of initial conditions of ASM has a significant effect on the accuracy of flood forecasting. Furthermore, simulation forecasting is also crucial in order to predict an imminent flooding event that may be catastrophic. The main functions mentioned above are listed at the function modules in Fig. 1. The whole procedure of forecasting, including selecting models, setting the initial conditions of ASM, forecasting flood based on real-time data, forecasting flood based on simulation data and revising the forecast results, is transparent at the client side. Users can submit their request by the browser. Then the Web Server will provide runtime support for responding to them, the Application Server will perform request processing (such as invoking JSP or servlet behaviour) and return results with tables and graphics to the client (authorized users). Compared with traditional Client/Server systems, the Web-based flood forecasting system needs to manage the collaborative results from users at different geographical locations. These results should be easily accessed by authorized users and easily communicated via the Internet. The collaborative objects may be from organizations or individuals. The organizations should include the flood control agency(ies) of central and local government, the river agency and the reservoir agency. The individuals may be experts, model developers and decision makers. As well as having free access to the data, more importantly, these organizations or individuals can utilize hydrological models in order to get their results. The proposed flood forecasting system overcomes space and time constraints that burden face-to-face meetings and increases the range and depth of information access, as well as improves group task performance and effectiveness. The changes have a great impact on improving the flood forecasting accuracy and reliability considering many uncertain factors of flood forecasting such as antecedent soil moisture, human activity, and future rainfall estimation and so on.


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Fig. 1 Architecture of the Web-based flood forecasting system for reservoirs. Data design From Fig. 1, the databases are the basis of the Web-based flood forecasting system. Figure 2 shows the structural scheme defined for the collaborative team members,

Expert B

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Databases

Web Server

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Reservoir 1 Browser

Server

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Login Model Selection

Results Details (1) Tables (2) Graphics

Flood forecasting results List User Alt.1 Alt.2 Alt.3 Central River Province Reservoir A Expert B

Real-time Forecasting

Simulated Forecasting

ASM Calculation

Post Processing

Function modules

Datastore and W

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which is an example based on the selected Xinanjiang model (Zhao, 1992).The data types can be categorized into five groups: 1. User and group identification information are fundamental for representing data

about the application users, their roles, which can be derived from the group they belong to and, consequently, their access rights to information objects and services.

2. Default information defines the initial setup for the selected reservoir or basin and the duration of rainfall. It includes the default setup associated with the system running, such as the selected reservoir name, models, data sources and so on.

3. Parameter information represents the parameters of selected models, the division of a basin into sub-basins, the distribution of raingauges for each sub-basin and feature values of design floods.

4. Real-time data updating This includes data of rainfall from raingauges, water levels at stream gauges and dams, as well as the outflow of reservoirs.

5. Results information distinguishes between the different results from the collaborative team members. Each alternative is associated with a single ForeResProcess, ForeResAttribute and FeatureValue. These three tables represent the participants’ preferences with respect to models, modifying the initial values of ASM and hydrographs. By integrating their visual results (refer to Fig. 8), each can contribute toward the common goal of understanding of models and data and of reliable prediction.

SELECTION OF DEVELOPING PLATFORM AND TOOLS As mentioned above, a Web-based flood forecasting system for reservoirs is a complex Web application. Large-scale databases and on-line flood forecasting are its two main characteristics. Therefore, the system needs to adopt the enterprise-level Web application. Java 2 platform Enterprise Edition (J2EE) of Sun Microsystems is chosen as the development solution for the Web-based flood forecasting system (Girdley et al., 2001; Pati Sudhansu, 2002). One of the design objectives for this project is that the Web-based flood forecasting system for reservoirs can run under all platforms of a single reservoir or of local, state and government agencies. The Web-based application does not require the end user to have advanced software or hardware, since these applications operate through a web browser with most of the processing conducted on the server. THE PROTOTYPE SYSTEM AND APPLICATION The Web-based flood forecasting system for reservoirs, which adopts the standard databases of the national flood control management system for reservoirs and is an updating version of the flood control management system for reservoirs based on Client/Server (Cheng & Chau, 2004), has been successfully developed with an application on the Biliuhe Reservoir. The software has been installed in the Flood Control Management Centre of Dalian, Liaoning Province, China and has been running since June 2003. Biliuhe Reservoir, with a drainage area of 2013 km2 and a water holding capacity of up to 934 ×106 m3, is situated in the main stream of the Biliuhe River

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which is the longest river in Dalian, 170 km away from Dalian City. Its main stream length is 101 km and the average slope is 1.89‰. The average depth of annual runoff is 338 mm, and more than 70% of the total rainfall falls between July and September. Biliuhe is the largest reservoir in Dalian, and its main purposes are water supply (it provides 70% of the water supply of Dalian City) and flood control. It is an important task to strike a balance between water supply and flood control, particularly when heavy flood events occur. Therefore, many agencies and decision makers, including Dalian Bureau of Water Resources, Dalian Water Supply Company, Dalian Flood Control Management Centre, Biliuhe Reservoir Bureau, Dalian Government and even the National Flood Control Centre, are involved in the flood control management of this reservoir. The hydrological model of the reservoir is the Dahuofang model which is a rainfall–runoff model that is widely used in the region of North China (Liu, 1985). In order to demonstrate the integration of multiple models, the Xinanjiang model, which is another rainfall–runoff model that is widely used in China, is taken as an example of integration but its parameters are hypothetical and are not calibrated and validated. The rainfall and level in raingauges and stream gauges can be automatically transmitted to the computer of the Dalian Reservoir and Flood Control Management Centre by the telemetry-based collection system through simultaneous wireless connection. During recent years, there have been no heavy floods in Dalian. In order to understand the system, a hypothetical flood event is employed to demonstrate the system running. The hypothetical flood event occurred between 08:00, 20 June 2003 and 14:00, 21 June 2003, with a duration of 30 hours. The following explains the operation of system. Assume that the current time is 14:00 on 20 June 2003, the current total average rainfall of the watershed is 116 mm and the assessment of possible rainfall in the future is between 50 and 100 mm. An emergent collaborative program will be invoked. The participants will come from all relevant agencies and invited experts throughout the country. They can be invited by e-mail or telephone. Where participants have access to the system by Web browser (MS Windows Explorer or Netscape), they have to log in. If the users are licensed, they reach the initial setup interface of flood forecasting system (Fig. 3). In Fig. 3, the default situation is the parameter values of the last flood event, including the start time of rainfall, the current time, and data sources, etc. If it is a new flood event, the user would have to click on “new flood” on the “floods” list box; the user can the set the rainfall time. Generally, the administrator has set up the time of this flood and the user can go directly to the next step. If the user has the operational records, then he/she can continue to forecast the flood based on the current observed data and the system will display the up to date results in graphic and table formats (Fig. 4). Otherwise it will start a new forecasting procedure, and also display results as in Fig. 4 after performing a prediction procedure. At the main interface (Fig. 4), the user can freely choose the menu items, such as “Data Preprocess”. On the “Data Preprocess” page, based on the current data, the user may check the rainfall records by clicking the “rainfall” submenu item, query or modify antecedent soil moisture by clicking the “ASM” submenu item, and add additional rainfall data for the possible rainfall in order to invoke the fictitious forecast through clicking the “fictitious” submenu item. For each alternative, the user can add notes by clicking the “Notes” icon at the top of the result table (Fig. 4). When clicking the “Modify” icon at the top of the result table (Fig. 4), the user can directly modify the


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Fig. 3 The interface of initial setup.

Fig. 4 Main interface of Web-based flood forecasting at client side.

Modify

Notes


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Fig. 5 List of forecasting alternatives by a single agency or individual.

Fig. 6 List of forecasting alternatives by all participants.


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Fig. 7 Results tables for selected alternatives.

Fig. 8 Hydrograph comparison for selected alternatives.


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flood hydrograph by pointing the mouse at the screen. Each action mentioned above involves a specific interface and these interfaces are omitted here owing to space limitations. In most situations, hydrological models produce good forecasting results; however, sometimes their results are not so good because of human activity and observation errors. Adjusting the antecedent soil moisture, especially after a long dry spell and for the first flood event, is a common case where there are great differences between experts and laymen. Thus, a user can examine multiple alternatives for the current data which can be discussed among the collaborative teams. These alternatives are listed in Fig. 5, which shows how the user can select, delete, or display the alternatives of his/her choice. More importantly, the user can also query other on-line alternatives proposed by the collaborative teams. By clicking on “all alternatives” (Fig. 5), all the alternatives associated with this flood will be listed, as shown in Fig. 6. Then, by clicking the selected alternative number in the “SN” column (Fig. 6), the user can look up specific details including the forecast flood process, hydrograph, characteristics, and identify the authors of the alternative, as well as obtain a description of this alternative (as in Fig. 5). In Fig. 6, clicking “Detailed Table” will list the comparison of results of the alternatives (Fig. 7). Further, the hydrograph comparison for selected alternatives will respectively be displayed as in Fig. 8. According to these alternatives, a comprehensive result should be obtained by taking into account the input of all participants. CONCLUSIONS A prototype Web-based flood forecasting system for reservoirs is presented. The current system is an updated version of the Chinese national flood control system for reservoirs and is oriented to large or medium-scale reservoirs of China (Cheng & Chau, 2004). Compared with the general Web-based query system, the Web-based flood forecasting system is more focused on the on-line analysis of model-based forecasting of floods. The system integrates the most common hydrological models used in China, such as the Xinanjiang models, the Dahuofang model, and the unit hydrograph, which can be integrated into the system by the definition of tables in the database. The current system permits Internet users to perform on-line flood forecasting and to query other users’ results with tables and graphs, thus forming collaborative contacts. The Web-based application offers an efficient medium for transferring and sharing information, knowledge and experiences among members of multiple agencies. The Web-based flood forecasting system for reservoirs is characterized by the large-scale databases and on-line flood forecasting. The system needs to adopt the enterprise-level Web application. Thus, J2EE of Sun Microsystems is chosen as the development solution for the Web-based flood forecasting system, Weblogic 6.0 of BEA as the container provider, and JBuilder 7.0 of Borland as the development tool. The prototype system applications show that the system solutions for the Web-based flood forecasting are feasible and effective.


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Acknowledgements The authors are grateful for the constructive comments and suggestions of the Editor and three referees of this paper. This research was supported by “The Teaching and Research Award Program for Outstanding Young Teachers in Higher Education Institutions of Ministry of Education, P.R.C” (No.200026), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (no. 50479055), the Natural Science Foundation of Liaoning Province of China (No. 20032114) and the Central Research Grant of Hong Kong Polytechnic University (G-T592). REFERENCES Al-Sabhan, W., Mulligan, M. & Blackburn, G. A. (2003) A real-time hydrological model for flood prediction using GIS

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