design thinking and foresight greg van alstyne, strategic innovation lab design thinking and...
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Design Thinking and Foresight
Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab
Design Thinking and Foresight for Mobile Content & MediaDesign Thinking and Foresight for Mobile Content & MediaGreg Van Alstyne, Associate Professor, OCADUDirector of Research, Strategic Innovation LabCanada-EU Future Internet Workshop, 21 March 2011
Design Thinking and Foresight
Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab
Uncertainty today is not just an occasional, temporary deviation from a reasonable predictability;
it is a basic structural feature of the business environment.
–Pierre Wack, 1985
Design Thinking and Foresight
Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab photo: flickr.com/photos/emio_me/431872537/
How can we foster a rich ecosystem for future mobile content and media?
With rising competition, choice, and business uncertainties, what is the best approach?
Many call for innovation; but what is the target? What is design thinking and why does it matter?What if we could learn to envision possible futures?
Design Thinking and Foresight
Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab
The Goal
Innovation with anticipation:a forward view
photo: flickr.com/photos/emio_me/431872537/
Design Thinking and Foresight
Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab
systems thinkingvisual thinking
design business
futures
user researchbusiness & policy models
strategic foresight
sLab strategic foresight & innovation model
Design Thinking and Foresight
Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab
Innovation is about what people want
Rooted in a heritage of design thinking, our approach places human needs, desires, behaviour and culture at the heart of
‣problem finding‣problem framing ‣problem solving
Design Thinking and Foresight
Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab photo: flickr.com/photos/emio_me/431872537/
What is strategic foresight?
Foresight involves thinking about, debating, planning, and actively shaping the future
Foresight makes sense of emerging signals from science and technology, socio-cultural domains, markets, legal and political environments
Design Thinking and Foresight
Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab
Foresight
Horizon scanningSignals analysisTrends extrapolationChange drivers+blockersScenario planningWildcards+backcasting
Business+Design
Market researchDesign ethnographySketching+prototypingService blueprintBusiness modelingStrategic communications
Foresight & innovation methods compared
Design Thinking and Foresight
Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab
Foresight methods
Adapted from Rafael Popper, “Foresight Methodology.” In Handbook of Technology Foresight, 2008,
Design Thinking and Foresight
Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab
Foresight Innovation ProductsServices
FinancialPerformance
KnowledgeCapital
Foresight feeds the innovation funnel
War Games at RAND Corporation, 1958. Photo Leonard Mccombe, Time Life/Getty images
Foresight is born in post-War research
Design Thinking and Foresight
Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab
Foresight spun off: from military to commercial
Design Thinking and Foresight
Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab
Design thinking(Herbert Simon 1969)
Scenarios thinking(Global Business Network 1990s)
DefineResearchIdeatePrototypeChooseImplement Learn
Orient
Explore
Synthesize
Act
Monitor
Foresight and design thinking: closely related
Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab
Design Thinking and Foresight
Trends are visible, directional patterns of change, surface ripples that rise and fall
Driving forces (drivers), like deep ocean currents, are structural patterns of power or influence such as global competition or urban migration
Predetermined elements, like rocks in the sea bed, are features largely predictable in any scenario
Critical uncertainties are drivers of significant import, which are unpredictable and difficult to callflickr.com/photos/andie712b/4104141524/
Foresight terminology
Principal PartnersLab at OCAD University
Made possible by OMDCon behalf of the Ministry of Culture
Strategic Foresight for Ontario’s Cultural Media Industries
What will our media and entertainment look like by 2020?
Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab
Design Thinking and Foresight
2020 Media FuturesProject Deliverables
Horizon Scanning Signals and Trends
Industry Roundtables Drivers of Change
Delphi Survey Critical Uncertainties
Scenarios Workshop Alternative Futures
MediaCamp Implications for Action
Expert Interviews Distinctive Voices
Visualization/PublicationKey Findings/Messages
Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab
Design Thinking and Foresight
2020 Media FuturesIndustry Roundtables
Book, Magazine, Music industriesDecember 7
Film, TV, Interactive Media industriesDecember 14
Professor Suzanne Stein and Karl Schroeder moderated.
Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab
Design Thinking and Foresight
2020 Media FuturesDriving Forces
Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab
Design Thinking and Foresight
2020 Media FuturesDelphi Survey
Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab
Design Thinking and Foresight
2020 Media FuturesScenarios
diffusion of innovation
valu
e
ge
nera
tion
measured & risk averse rapid & disruptive
commercially driven
socially driven
Ministry of Investment
Lords of the Cloud
WediaAnt Hill
Design Thinking and Foresight
Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab
What can we learn?
How not to fail
Design Thinking and Foresight
Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab
How actors and roles may change, creatingnew niches and newopportunities
What can we learn?
Strategic Innovation Lab Ontario College of Art & Design 2009
viability Biz
Design desirability
Tech feasibility
Nintendo Wii Fit
What can we learn?
Category creation
Design Thinking and Foresight
Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab
In Summary
We are eager to leverage these interests, experiences, recent work, and strategic foresight methods, namely:
‣Future Media (2020 Media Futures)‣Future Mobile Experience Innovation (MEIC) ‣Rich understanding of North American context
to identify potential research directions and partnerships with Canadian & European colleagues
Design Thinking and Foresight
Greg Van Alstyne, Strategic Innovation Lab
Many thanks.
Greg Van Alstyne Associate Professor, OCAD [email protected]
Director of ResearchStrategic Innovation Lab (sLab)http://slab.ocad.ca
Project Lead, 2020 Media Futureshttp://2020mediafutures.ca