department of geography • lmu munich

Vetter, 28.06.2011 15th IP-Seminar, Cagliari 1

Department of Geography • LMU Munich

Modelling future water quality of lakes considering results of a regional climate model

Mark Vetter


University of Munich, LMU, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich

Presentation LMU

Faculty of Geosciences(Departments of Paleontology, Geology, Vulcanology, Petrography, Geophysics

and Geography)

Department of Geography

Human Geography

Physical Geography


Presentation German Group

Mario Carolin Stefan Rosa Mark


Presentation German Group

Global Change InvestigationWorking Group Dr. Vetter

Climate Change Impact on Lakes and

Reservoirs

Calibrating and Validation of a

Thermodynamic Lake Modell and Coupling with an Ecological Modell considering Regional Climate

Modells

STEFAN WEINBERGER

Impact on Fish Ecology

CAROLIN SCHAFFER

Multidisciplinary Methods of Climate

Change Investigation in

mediterranean and templated climate

zones in Andalusia/Spain and

Bavaria/Germany

Development of surface drainage in South-

Western Spain (Doñana Natural Park, Andalusia) – human

activity or climate change?

ROSA WILM

Impact by Bioenergy Policies

considering Global Change

Sustainabilty by Bioenergy, Chances and Risks - A Study

Case of the Municipality of

Bräunlingen (Southern Black

Forest)

MARIO KUTTRUFF


Content

1.) Introduction

2.) LAGO – Aims of the investigation project

3.) LAGO – Results

4.) Conclusions


Lakes as

sentinels regulators integrator for current for future for past climate, climate, climate.

Overall idea

WILLIAMSON et al. 2009


Aims LAGO-Project

LAGO (Limnological Effects of Global Change in Upper Bavaria - subproject Ammersee)

-Analysis of ecological lake properties in past meteorological extreme events -Calibration and validation of a thermodynamic water balance model using former measuring data

-Modelling lake ecological future under assumption of regional climate models (such as REMO)

-Development of scenarios for possible (ecological) future scenarios of water quality development


Past heat balance

Current heat balance

Future heat balance

Modelling of heat balance

Time / Intensity of climate change impact

Modelling

DYRESM

2049 2050


Regional Climate Modell REMO


1.) Data download - For a certain emission scenario - Selection of variables of interest- Selection of period and timestep - For the entire modelation area (Middle Europe)



2.) Adaptation of data for study area-Selection of the certain gitter box (10x10km)-Rotation ellipsoid- Using UNIX/LINUX for working with data



3.) BIAS-Correction of Data- Overlapping of comparision periods- Linear transformation by linear regression

Variable

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 t

measured

modelled



Field Methods


Study Area

Vetter & Aguillar Alba (submitted)

Kind of originGlacialmorpho-logic

Geographic coordinates, lowest point

47° 59’ 31’’ N, 11° 07’ 12’’ E

Mean altitude [m a.s.l.]

532.9

Volume [m³]1750.01 x

106

Mean depth [m] 37.55Maximum depth [m] 81.1

Mixing type dimicticWater renewable time [year]

2.65

Catchment area [km²]

993

Lake area/basin area

20

Length lakeside [km]

43

Surface area [km²]

46.6

Discharge mean main inflow Ammer [m³sec-1]

16.5

Discharge mean main outflow Amper [m³sec-1]

21.0


Results

Vetter (2010)


Data: LAGO-Projekt, own calculations, LfU

Schmidt-Stability

Results

Vetter. Aguillar Alba, Mena Berrios, Perez Martinez (2010)


Results of Model calibration (2004-2007)

Data: LAGO-Project, own calculations, WWA Weilheim

Results

2004 2005 2006 2007

°C

Weinberger & Vetter (in prep.)


Results

Comparison Air Temperature 2004-2010 and 2041-2050

Data: LAGO-Project, own calculations, DWD


Results

Comparison Precipitation 2004-2010 and 2041-2050



Results

Lake thermal balance 2041-2050

Data: LAGO-Project, own calculations, LfU

2041 2043 2045 2047 2049


Results

Lake thermal balance 2041-2050



Results

Schmidt-Stability in 2048



Data: LAGO-Projekt, own calculations, LfU

Schmidt-Stability (1984-2009)

Results

Vetter. Aguillar Alba, Mena Berrios, Perez Martinez (2010)


Scenario 1 – Trend-Scenario

Atmospheric and antropological input

situation remain in the range of penultimate

decade

Limnological scenarios Lake Ammersee

Scenario 2 – Increase of extreme events such as

heat and drought

Scenario 3 – Increase of extreme events such as

heat and drought + single events of intense rain in

catchment area

+

+

+

+

+

Results


Scenario 1 – Trend-Scenario

- Development of trophic level continuing as so far-Stabilisation of the mesoptrophic level

Szenario 2 -increase of stability in summer-decrease entry of oxygen in depth-increase of oxygen shrinkage in depth-Nutrition decrease in sediment-Increase in nutrition in epilimnion through delayed (autumn) or precipitate (spring) turbation-Increase in porduction of biomass and phytoplancton- deterioration of trophic level

Szenario 3-Increase mobilisation of allochthonos nutrients in the catchment area-Entry due to floods-Increase of P-Release of the sediment-More nutrients in the lake-Increase of phytoplancton production-Deterioration of trophic level- Slowing down / Stop of reoligotrofication

+ + ++ +

Results


• Focus on consequences of positive temperature anomalies – possible average conditions of the future

• Assumed increase of these special situations. Especially summative effects may lead to distainable ecological consequences

• Some relationships betweeen limnological reactions and climate change (atmosphere/catchment area) clearer, some still need to investigate

• Reactions of the limnological eco-system to special meteorological situations is distainable but with no long-term ecological consequences (sufficient resilience of the system)

Conclusions 1/2


• Necessity of permanent measurements of limnological parameters to improve model calibration

• Necessity of further checks/adaptation of meteorological parameters for simulation

• Calibration of thermodynamic water balance model can be used for estimates of future lake heat balance and limnophysical conditions

• Preparation is made for coupling of thermal heat balance model with ecological model (DYRESM-CAEDYM)

Conclusions 2/2


Thank you very much for your attention!

Thanks to all contributers


Results

Comparison Total Radiation 2004-2010 and 2041-2050


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