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Demystifying Demystifying SHASHOUJIANSHASHOUJIAN: : China’s “Assassin’s Mace” China’s “Assassin’s Mace”

ConceptConcept

Jason E. Bruzdzinski, The MITRE CorporationJason E. Bruzdzinski, The MITRE Corporationjebruzdzjebruzdz@@mitremitre.org.org

CopyrightCopyright©© 2003 The MITRE Corporation. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.2003 The MITRE Corporation. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

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BackgroundBackground•• ShashoujianShashoujian or “assassin’s mace” was a term or “assassin’s mace” was a term

largely absent from American discussions about largely absent from American discussions about Chinese military affairs until 1997.Chinese military affairs until 1997.

•• After 1997, interest in and usage of the term After 1997, interest in and usage of the term increased in the U.S., but knowledge remained increased in the U.S., but knowledge remained very limited.very limited.

•• A broad lack of American understanding of the A broad lack of American understanding of the concept stimulated this research effort.concept stimulated this research effort.

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Key Questions Addressed in Key Questions Addressed in MITRE’s MITRE’s StudyStudy

1. Origins?1. Origins?

2. Emergence?2. Emergence?

3. Significance?3. Significance?

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Historical Origins and Military Historical Origins and Military ContextContext

•• Literal Interpretation.Literal Interpretation.–– Shashou Shashou :: assassin or :: assassin or hitmanhitman..–– Shoujian Shoujian :: hand sword/mace/club.:: hand sword/mace/club.

•• Origins. Origins. –– Martial Art.Martial Art.–– Tang Empire (618Tang Empire (618--907 A.D.) Legend of 907 A.D.) Legend of Xin XiongXin Xiong..–– Folklore.Folklore.

•• A Component of Chinese Strategic Culture.A Component of Chinese Strategic Culture.–– Influences PLAInfluences PLA warfighting warfighting strategy and military strategy and military

operations.operations.

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OverviewOverview•• Few formal definitions can be documented. Few formal definitions can be documented.

ShashoujianShashoujian is widely understood within China is widely understood within China --akin to the American understanding of the term akin to the American understanding of the term “silver bullet.”“silver bullet.”

•• A senior PLAAF officer has described A senior PLAAF officer has described shashoujianshashoujian as a “weapon system” or as a “weapon system” or “equipment” or a “certain combat method” to “equipment” or a “certain combat method” to overcome a superior adversary.overcome a superior adversary.

•• Some Chinese sources contend that certain Some Chinese sources contend that certain programs have a “programs have a “shashoujianshashoujian” designation ” designation and and are supported by specific Chinese military R&D are supported by specific Chinese military R&D efforts. Some of these programs began in the efforts. Some of these programs began in the early 1990s.early 1990s.

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Emergence of Emergence of ShashoujianShashoujian in the PLAin the PLA

PLA Military Strategy and Modernization Debates PLA Military Strategy and Modernization Debates (1985(1985--1995).1995).–– Three dominant schools of thought: Three dominant schools of thought: People’s WarPeople’s War, ,

Local Limited WarLocal Limited War, , Revolution in Military AffairsRevolution in Military Affairs (RMA).(RMA).–– Shift from Shift from People’s WarPeople’s War to to Local, Limited WarLocal, Limited War is is

promulgated by China’s leaders.promulgated by China’s leaders.–– Impact of U.S. military operations in the 1990s gives a Impact of U.S. military operations in the 1990s gives a

profound boost for Chinese RMA advocates at key PRC profound boost for Chinese RMA advocates at key PRC institutions.institutions.

–– ShashoujianShashoujian emerges to bridge “traditional” with emerges to bridge “traditional” with “modern” approaches for PLA modernization.“modern” approaches for PLA modernization.

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Emergence ofEmergence of ShashoujianShashoujian in the PLAin the PLAPRC PresidentPRC President Jiang Zemin Jiang Zemin calls for a PLA calls for a PLA

“transformation” in the wake of deteriorating “transformation” in the wake of deteriorating U.S.U.S.--PRC relations and observance of nonPRC relations and observance of non--linearity in American military linearity in American military modernization/capability. (Marks modernization/capability. (Marks Jiang’sJiang’s first first public support for the public support for the PLA’sPLA’s RMA advocates).RMA advocates).–– From 1996From 1996--2003, PLA officers of increasing rank and 2003, PLA officers of increasing rank and

political stature support Presidentpolitical stature support President Jiang’sJiang’s call forcall forshashoujianshashoujian. .

–– Official PRC discussions ofOfficial PRC discussions of shashoujianshashoujian are visible from are visible from a chronology of statements from senior PLA officers a chronology of statements from senior PLA officers (beginning in 1995). In 1997(beginning in 1995). In 1997--1998 usage of the term 1998 usage of the term spikes in the PLA.spikes in the PLA.

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Emergence ofEmergence of ShashoujianShashoujian in the PLAin the PLA

ShashoujianShashoujian -- A Secret Program?A Secret Program?998 State Security Project.998 State Security Project.

•• “Accelerate the development of research, development and “Accelerate the development of research, development and installation of new weapons…to resist U.S. installation of new weapons…to resist U.S. hegemonismhegemonism.”.”

–– setset--up research and manufacture of new weapons to deal with new up research and manufacture of new weapons to deal with new strategic tacticsstrategic tactics

–– develop naval shipdevelop naval ship--launched and cruise missileslaunched and cruise missiles–– equip troops ahead of schedule with electron laser and light beaequip troops ahead of schedule with electron laser and light beam m

weaponsweapons–– stop discussing the issue of proliferation with the U.S.stop discussing the issue of proliferation with the U.S.–– revise some original policies on not being the first to use nuclrevise some original policies on not being the first to use nuclear ear

weaponsweapons–– revise the improper policy on not forming alliances or blocs.”revise the improper policy on not forming alliances or blocs.”

•• References to References to shashoujianshashoujian appear to indicate that preliminary appear to indicate that preliminary work on this program could have begun as early as 1995, work on this program could have begun as early as 1995, placing the PRC almost a decade into a placing the PRC almost a decade into a shashoujianshashoujian acquisition acquisition program.program.

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Emergence ofEmergence of ShashoujianShashoujian in the PLAin the PLA

The 998 State Security Project Leading Group.The 998 State Security Project Leading Group.

(From Left to Right)

Jiang Zemin – Former PRC President, CMC Chairman.Hu Jintao – PRC President, CPC General Secretary, CMC Vice Chairman.Wu Bangguo – Chairman, Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress.Cao Gangchuan – CMC Vice Chairman, Minister of National Defense.Guo Boxiong – Member, Political Bureau-CPC Central Committee, CMC Vice Chairman.Liu Jibin – Director, Commission on Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense (COSTIND).

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Emergence ofEmergence of ShashoujianShashoujian in the PLAin the PLA

Possibly Related to Possibly Related to ShashoujianShashoujian??122 Project.122 Project.

•• “improve combat effectiveness, counter“improve combat effectiveness, counter--attack attack capability, the winning edge of the PLA.”capability, the winning edge of the PLA.”

•• Develop a new generation of strategic highDevelop a new generation of strategic high--tech tech weapons, strategic nuclear weapons, and weapons, strategic nuclear weapons, and improving the readiness of PLA strategic improving the readiness of PLA strategic weaponry. weaponry.

126 Program.126 Program.•• Accelerate the development and production of six Accelerate the development and production of six

systems engineering projects: electronic systems engineering projects: electronic information technology system, strategic defense information technology system, strategic defense technology system, optical laser technological technology system, optical laser technological system, nonsystem, non--conventional materials and conventional materials and conventional materials technological system.conventional materials technological system.

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Emergence ofEmergence of ShashoujianShashoujian in the PLAin the PLA

ShashoujianShashoujian and PLA Research, Development and and PLA Research, Development and Acquisition (RD&A)Acquisition (RD&A)

–– In 1998, amidst PLA discussions about In 1998, amidst PLA discussions about shashoujianshashoujian, China , China initiated a series of sweeping military reforms, establishing thinitiated a series of sweeping military reforms, establishing the e PLA General Armament Department (GAD) to manage and fund PLA General Armament Department (GAD) to manage and fund military RD&A plans.military RD&A plans.

–– At the same time, the function and authority of the PRC At the same time, the function and authority of the PRC Commission on Science, Technology and Industry for National Commission on Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense (COSTIND) were examined, reorganized and streamlined. Defense (COSTIND) were examined, reorganized and streamlined.

–– Leaders with GAD and COSTIND experience serve on the 998 State Leaders with GAD and COSTIND experience serve on the 998 State Security Project Leading Group.Security Project Leading Group.

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Emergence ofEmergence of ShashoujianShashoujian in the PLAin the PLAShashoujianShashoujian and PLA Research, Development and and PLA Research, Development and

Acquisition (RD&A)Acquisition (RD&A)–– Improve deterrence and war preparations by developing Improve deterrence and war preparations by developing

shashoujianshashoujian..–– Prioritize defensePrioritize defense--related research and highrelated research and high--tech weapons and tech weapons and

equipment, tackling key technologies, improve combat equipment, tackling key technologies, improve combat effectiveness and achieve progress in key projects to field a effectiveness and achieve progress in key projects to field a number of number of shashoujian shashoujian as quickly as possible.as quickly as possible.

–– ShashoujianShashoujian is responsive to China’s poor integration of is responsive to China’s poor integration of information technology with weapons to overcome five key information technology with weapons to overcome five key insufficiencies: 1) highinsufficiencies: 1) high--power armaments, 2) weapons for power armaments, 2) weapons for launching attacks, 3) precision guided munitions, 4) launching attacks, 3) precision guided munitions, 4) reconnaissance, early warning, command and control, and 5) reconnaissance, early warning, command and control, and 5) electronic armaments.electronic armaments.

–– ShashoujianShashoujian is identified as one of three key areas for defense is identified as one of three key areas for defense investment.investment.

–– Evidence of considerable level of effort: multiple programs, Evidence of considerable level of effort: multiple programs, throusands throusands of personnel, hundreds of research projects.of personnel, hundreds of research projects.

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PLA Major General Wang PLA Major General Wang Baocun’sBaocun’s10 Defining Characteristics of Future Warfare10 Defining Characteristics of Future Warfare

•• Limited GoalsLimited Goals•• Short DurationShort Duration•• Less Collateral DamageLess Collateral Damage•• Larger Battlefields, Less Density of Larger Battlefields, Less Density of

TroopsTroops•• Battlefield TransparencyBattlefield Transparency•• Intense Struggle for Information Intense Struggle for Information

SuperioritySuperiority•• Unprecedented Force IntegrationUnprecedented Force Integration•• Increased Demand for CIncreased Demand for C22

•• Dependency Upon Precision, not MassDependency Upon Precision, not Mass•• Attacks on the Weaknesses of Combat Attacks on the Weaknesses of Combat

Systems.Systems.

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Leveraging Leveraging ShashoujianShashoujianto Satisfy Military Requirementsto Satisfy Military RequirementsShashoujianShashoujian linked with the linked with the strategemstrategem: : Overcome Overcome

the Superior with the Inferiorthe Superior with the Inferior..–– Traditionally reliance upon superior and asymmetric Traditionally reliance upon superior and asymmetric

strategies to cope with and defeat adversaries with strategies to cope with and defeat adversaries with superior equipment.superior equipment.

–– China’s current leaders acknowledge continuing China’s current leaders acknowledge continuing military inferiority, but judge that the PLA can defeat military inferiority, but judge that the PLA can defeat the United States in a local, limited conflict under the United States in a local, limited conflict under certain conditions.certain conditions.

–– Chinese military strategists derive assessments from Chinese military strategists derive assessments from holistic and relativistic analytical framework (the holistic and relativistic analytical framework (the Marxist Dialectic).Marxist Dialectic).

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Leveraging Leveraging ShashoujianShashoujianfor Military Requirementsfor Military Requirements

ShashoujianShashoujian and Operational Art.and Operational Art.–– Identify and Exploit Weakness.Identify and Exploit Weakness.

–– Seize Initiative Through Surprise.Seize Initiative Through Surprise.

–– Employ Extraordinary Means.Employ Extraordinary Means.

–– Attack Vulnerabilities.Attack Vulnerabilities.

–– Ensure Survivability and CounterEnsure Survivability and Counter--Strike Strike Capability.Capability.

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Leveraging Leveraging ShashoujianShashoujianto Satisfy Military Requirementsto Satisfy Military RequirementsIntended Effects ofIntended Effects of ShashoujianShashoujian Strikes.Strikes.

–– Deterrence.Deterrence.

–– Decapitation.Decapitation.

–– Blinding, Paralysis and Disintegration.Blinding, Paralysis and Disintegration.

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ConclusionsConclusions• China’s history and traditions profoundly influence the thinking of China’s

leaders and senior military officers. China’s military scholars and leaders are reexamining philosophical issues (emphasis on strategy and methods [man] versus weapons, platforms and systems [material], as well as practical matters (the applicability of People’s War in the 21st century)).

• Using Marxist dialectic approaches, Chinese assess military power holistically with emphasis on relative strengths and weaknesses. This approach to assessments differs from U.S. approaches. Contrasting perspectives and dangerous miscalculations can result.

• PRC military strategy will likely remain asymmetric vis-à-vis superior adversaries. China will attempt to minimize the relative superiority of enemies while employing effective stratagems and tactics.

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ConclusionsConclusions• Shashoujian is compatible and also potentially catalytic for current and

emerging strategy and military capabilities. Breakthoughs could result that catch adversaries by surprise.

• Shashoujian serves as a function to help the PLA prioritize a select set of military programs for special funding and rapid development.

• Senior American policy-makers should concern themselves with and watch-out for the following elements or combinations of elements to counter shashoujian and the stratagem of the ability of an “inferior defeating the superior”: 1) the possibility of China presenting a military operational concept that takes the United States by surprise, 2) weapons systems and infrastructure that can enable the PLA to implement the operational concept, and/or 3) a strategic or tactical context in which the successful use of this operational concept is decisive.