Developing Integrated Emission Strategies for Existing Land Transport (DIESEL)

Demonstration of the DIESEL-IDEAS

Informed Decision-support for Evaluating Alternative Strategies (IDEAS)

Sarath GuttikundaWorld Bank

Second Planning MeetingBangkok, February 17, 2004

IDEAS Analytical Framework

Objective: To develop an analytical framework that involves an appropriate knowledge base and modeling tools to analyze diesel pollution options

Emissions &

Costs

Emissions Emissions & &

CostsCostsDispersion Modeling

Dispersion Dispersion ModelingModeling

Depositions &

Concentrations

Depositions Depositions & &

ConcentrationsConcentrations

EnergyTechnology

FuelSectorsScales

EnergyEnergyTechnologyTechnology

FuelFuelSectorsSectorsScalesScales

Exposure&

Impacts

ExposureExposure&&

ImpactsImpacts

Activities:Database DevelopmentModeling Framework Development and ApplicationSelection and Analysis of Options/ScenariosDissemination among Collaborative Working Group

IDEAS Activity 1: Emissions Module

General Information – geography, population Statistics, land useSources – industries, power plants, transport, domestic sectors, etc

Energy Consumption Levels - fuel type, fuel characteristicsHouse Hold Energy Consumption –

heating and cookingTraffic Volumes – road network,

location, traffic volume, vehicle number by age, and type, emission factors by type

Emissions – criteria pollutants Monitoring- historical and present

BMR Regions

Road Network

EmissionCharacteristics

•••

•••

IDEAS Grid Based Approach

Bangkok

1313oo

9999oo

1414oo

100100oo

••PowerplantsPowerplants••DomesticDomestic••IndustryIndustry••TransportTransport••OthersOthers

GIS Database – for distribution of emissions at industrial and grid levelSectoral Analysis – grid based emissions database for selection of options

Vehicular Emissions Database

IDEAS Emissions Module: Sample Outputs

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

No.

of V

ehic

les

Car TukTuk Bus Van

Vehicle Population

TSP Emissions (tons/day) by Vehicle Type

Car16%

MotorCycle9%

TukTuk0%

Taxi1%Bus

7%Truck22%

Van14%

HeavyDuty31%

HC Emissions (tons/day)by Vehicle Type: 1997

Cars37%

2Wh.2str8%

Autos45%

Tempos5%

Buses3%

Trucks2%

IDEAS Activity 2: Dispersion Module

•General Information – climate and meteorological data (wind roses)Dispersion Modeling – models availability, institutional capacity and facilities to conduct modeling Grid Based Pollution Analysis –establishment of source receptor matrices for simplified analysis of DIESEL program policies and scenarios

BMR Regions

Road Network

EmissionsCharacteristics

•

•••

Meteorology

DispersionModeling

•

IDEAS Simplified Modeling Approaches

Emissions &

CostsDispersion Modeling

Dispersion Dispersion ModelingModeling

Depositions &

Concentrations

Depositions Depositions & &

ConcentrationsConcentrations

EnergyTechnology

FuelSectorsScales

EnergyEnergyTechnologyTechnology

FuelFuelSectorsSectorsScalesScales

Exposure&

Impacts

ExposureExposure&&

ImpactsImpacts

Days & WeeksDays & Weeks

Source ReceptorSource ReceptorMatrixMatrix

SecondsSeconds

Emissions Emissions & &

CostsCosts

IDEAS Activity 3: Exposure Assessment Module

BMR Regions

Road Network

EmissionsCharacteristics

•••

•••

Meteorology

DispersionModeling

Exposure

120.8 121 121.2 121.4 121.6 121.8 122

30.8

31

31.2

31.4

31.6

31.8

32General Information – literature survey of relevant past and current studiesHealth Impacts – dose-response functions for Bangkok, hospital health statistics

POPAPE iijjij ***

Health Endpoint Coefficient Source Mortality 0.84 Meta-analysis (Lvovsky and others 2000) Hospital Visit 0.18 Beijing Study (Xu and others 1995) Emergency Room Visit 0.1 Beijing Study (Xu and others 1995) Hospital Admission 0.8 Meta-analysis (Dockery and Pope 1994) Chronic Bronchitis 0.1 Beijing Study (Xu and Wang 1993)

Health Exposure Analysis Module

Tracks Health Benefits to

Costs Ratio.

Calculates Health Damages for Mortality, Chronic Bronchitis,

Hospital Visits, Work Day Losses.

PM10: Health Effects

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

PM10 Conc. (micro g/m3)

Ann

ual E

ffec

ts (p

er 1

00,0

00 p

op.)

Premature Mortality (per 100,000 pop.)

RHA (per 100,000 pop.)

ERV (per 100,000 pop.)

Chr. Bronchitis (per 100,000 pop.)

IDEAS Activity 4: Economic Assessment Module

BMR Regions

Road Network

EmissionsCharacteristics

Meteorology

DispersionModeling

Exposure

120.8 121 121.2 121.4 121.6 121.8 122

30.8

31

31.2

31.4

31.6

31.8

32

Economic Analysis$$$General Information

Health effect valuation estimatese.g., mortality, morbidity, value of statistical lifeCosts e.g., control costs by type for diesel emissions management options

Economic Assessment of Options

Incremental Costs of reducing emissionsCost effectiveness of options through health benefit to control cost analysis

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

DIESEL IDEAS: Modular Approach

Air QualityAir Quality

…towards a “knowledge-based” and “knowledge driven” toolwith flexible and adaptable approach for analyzing alternativestrategies

ExposureExposureEmissionsEmissions

DIESEL DIESEL Program for Program for

BangkokBangkokPolicy Policy IssuesIssues

Technical Technical OptionsOptions