Demonstrating the

hydro-ecological

response to the return

of low flows in the

MLRDr Sally MaxwellDepartment of Environment, Water and Natural

Resources

Planning context

Types of monitoring

Condition monitoring:

• Establishing long-term trends

Intervention Monitoring:

• Response to key management actions

(shorter time frame)

Key question:

To what extent has implementation of low flows

resulted in the maintenance or improvement in

condition of water dependent ecosystems in the

MLR?

(a) There is evidence of clear economic benefits,

environmental benefits and social benefits (particularly for

irrigation communities) demonstrable over a 20 year horizon

(particularly through quantitative data), including a positive

cost-benefit outcome for a range of feasible investment and

water availability parameters for each recommended scenario,

compared with a no change option

Due diligence criteria

Monitoring and Evaluation Framework

Steps:

1) Conceptual Model

2) Literature review

3) Key hypotheses/questions

4) Design (Multiple Before After Control Impact)

5) Implementation

6) Reporting

Expected hydrological response

Expected hydrological response-

site view

Literature review

Spatial scales of monitoring

Indicators

• Likely temporal response

• Likely spatial scale of response

• Social connection

• Connection to other indicators used in water planning

Instream vegetation

macroinvertebratesWater quality

fish

Potential indicator Attribute measured Spatial scale of response*

Temporal scale of response

Physical habitat measures Wetted habitat extent on surveyed cross

sections

fine Short

Water Quality Phosphorus, Nitrogen, Nitrate, Nitrite fine-medium short

Temperature, DO fine-medium short

Salinity/Conductivity fine-medium short

Macroinvertebrates

Total Abundance (replicates required) fine-medium Short-moderate

Total Diversity fine-medium short- moderate

Functional Diversity fine-medium short- moderate

Resilient trait group proportion/abundance fine-medium short- moderate

EPT taxa abundance (replicates required) fine-medium short- moderate

EPA samples diversity measures only medium moderate

Fish Abundance and Recruitment

medium - broad moderate - long

Southern Pygmy Perch medium - broad moderate - long

River Black Fish medium - broad moderate - long

Vegetation Fish community composition

Species richness of aquatic vegetation medium long

Proportion of quadrats with aquatic

vegetation

medium

moderate - long

Indicator metrics

Short-

term

Longer-

term

Hydrological/wetted width

To what extent has the implementation of the Flows for the Future Project resulted in:

• a change in and occurrence and persistence of low flows at dam and SWMZ scale?

• reduced the number of zero flow days at the dam and SWMZ scale?

• Increased the wetted width within sites (riffles and pools)?

Key evaluation questions/ Hypotheses

Macroinvertebrates

To what extent has the implementation of the flows for the future project resulted in:

• Increased macroinvertebrate taxa and functional diversity?

• Increased abundance/diversity of macroinvertebrates with life histories characterised by resilience traits?

• Decrease in the abundance/diversity of species with life histories characterised by resistance traits?

• To what extent has the implementation of the flows for the future program resulted in the Increase in the abundance of EPT taxa?

Vegetation

1. To what extent has the implementation of the flows for the future

program increased the diversity of aquatic plants in channel?

2. To what extent has the implementation of the flows for the future

program reduced the abundance and diversity of terrestrial species

within temporary channels?

3. To what extent has the implementation of the flows for the future

program increased the frequency of aquatic plants in channel?

Fish

1. To what extent has the implementation of the flows for the future

project resulted in an increase in the recruitment success of mountain

galaxias (Galaxias oliros) populations at the catchment scale?

2. To what extent has the implementation of the flows for the future

project resulted in an increase in the recruitment success of southern

pygmy perch (Nannoperca australis) populations at the catchment

scale?

3. To what extent has the implementation of the flows for the future

project resulted in an increase in the recruitment success of river

blackfish (Gadopsis marmoratus) populations at the catchment scale?

4. To what extent has the implementation of the flows for the future

project resulted in an increase in the fish community condition score in

the EMLR?

Design• MBACI design opportunity

• 2x Catchments (Angas and Carrickalinga)

• 2x Treatment (Control vs Impact)

• Sites 20 sites

• 12 Angas

• 8 Carrickalinga

• Replicate 6 samples per site

• 2x Period (Before vs After)

• Times:

• 2-3 times before

• 2-3 times after

Control site criteria

• Independent of treatment

• Similar stream order

• Similar to treatment in physical form

• Riparian vegetation (measure)

• Soil types

• Broadly similar catchment storage and assumed use patterns

(measure/infer)

• Generally the same level of development

• Similar Agricultural use intensity

• Free from other major influences eg (large dairy).

• However, you expect some difference between sites, the design

can account for these, depending on how large the response is.

Probability of detecting a response in macroinvertebrate richness

using two catchments.

Evaluation1. Frequentist analysis of MBACI design using generalised

linear modelling to detect whether a change has occurred

in impact sites compared to control (e.g. Downes et al.

2002).

2. A Bayesian Statistical approach analysing the response to

low flow bypasses using the BACI design (e.g. Connor

2016).

3. A Bayesian Belief network approach to assessing the

response to the return of low flows.

Expected Outcomes:

• Evidence that the program is/is not meeting environmental goals,

• Better understanding of how these systems respond to changes in the

flow regime,

• Opportunities for community involvement in the health and

restoration of local waterways,

• Data to assist with review of the Water Allocation Plan, and

• Data and evaluations that will provide, in part, the requirements for

Basin Plan Schedule 12 evaluation and reporting,

• Evidence that returning low flows is possible and effective at multiple

spatial scales ranging from immediately downstream of farm dams to

entire catchments.

• Opportunities for collaboration with researchers

Thank you