demographics of aging, disabilities, and veteran and...

Demographics of Aging,

Disabilities, and Veteran and

Associated Needs in the

Houston Metropolitan Area

2016 Bridges

Conference

May 13, 2016

Houston, Texas

Lloyd B. PotterState Demographer

@TexasDemography

Overview

• Texas demographics

• Aging of our population

• Veterans

• Disability

• Health trends

• Labor force

2

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Numeric Change (Millions) Population (Millions)

3All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012-2014 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2014

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates

Population Growth, Texas, 1950-2010

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

Tom

Green

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf

Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val

Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

Red

River

Karnes

Palo

Pinto

Glasscock

Shelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San

Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

Van

Zandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

San

Patricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

Hemphill

Hartley

Young

Burleson

Hardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

ComancheMitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff

Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim

Wells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort

Bend

Bosque

Hockley

San

Saba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

Jim

Hogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San

Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

Live

Oak

Motley

Sherman

Ochiltree

Comal

Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2015

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates

tl_2010_48_county10

POPESTIMATE2015

112 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 500,000

500,001 - 4,538,028

Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2015

6Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2015 Vintage.

99 counties lost

population over the

five year period.

tl_2010_48_county10

NPOPCH1015

-1,913 - 0

1 - 1,000

1,001 - 20,000

20,001 - 80,000

80,001 - 444,952

Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2015

7Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2015 Vintage.

tl_2010_48_county10

PctPOPCH1015

-14.9% - 0%

0.1% - 2.5%

2.6% - 5%

5.1% - 10%

10.1% - 36.6%

U.S. Rank

Population

Change

Population

Change

Percent of

Change from

Natural

Increase

Percent

Change

from

Migration

Percent of

Migration

that is

international

Harris 1 88,618 48.6% 51.4% 54.0%

Bexar 6 33,712 42.8% 57.2% 23.2%

Dallas 8 32,555 69.6% 30.4% 116.3%*

Tarrant 10 31,417 50.8% 49.2% 38.5%

Fort Bend 11 30,784 19.4% 80.6% 17.3%

Travis 12 28,397 38.2% 61.8% 29.7%

Collin 14 26,530 26.1% 73.8% 20.1%

Denton 16 24,211 27.2% 72.8% 14.0%

Montgomery 27 19,129 17.9% 82.1% 10.4%

Williamson 31 18,025 23.2% 76.8% 7.8%*Dallas had net out domestic migration over this period.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Vintage Population Estimates

Top Counties for Numeric

Growth in Texas, 2013-2014

Top Counties for Percent

Growth* in Texas, 2013-2014

U.S.

Rank

2013-2014

Percent

Population

Change

Percent

Change

from

Migration

Percent of

Migration that

is International

5 4.8% 83.89% 2.6%

Fort Bend 6 4.7% 80.6% 17.37%

Comal 9 4.0% 90.1% 3.0%

Andrews 12 4.0% 62.8% 3.7%

Montgomery 13 3.8% 82.1% 10.4%

Williamson 14 3.8% 76.8% 7.8%

Kendall 15 3.8% 98.0% 5.0%

21 3.4% 72.0% 1.5%

Denton 23 3.3% 72.8% 14.2%

31 3.1% 73.9% 20.1%

Aransas 32 3.1% 110.8% 4.3%

Rockwall 35 3.0% 78.3% 7.8%

Waller 36 2.9% 77.2% 5.3%

37 2.9% 59.9% 2.0%

Guadalupe 42 2.8% 78.6% 4.9%Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Vintage Population Estimates

*Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2013

Percent Population by Race and Ethnicity, Texas, 2000 and 2010

Hispanic or Latino38%

NH White45%

NH Black 11%

NH Asian4%

NH Other2%

10

Hispanic or Latino32%

NH White52%

NH Black 11%

NH Asian3%

NH Other2%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

20102000

Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Un

der

1 y

ear

4 y

ears

8 y

ears

12

yea

rs

16

yea

rs

20

yea

rs

24

yea

rs

28

yea

rs

32

yea

rs

36

yea

rs

40

yea

rs

44

yea

rs

48

yea

rs

52

yea

rs

56

yea

rs

60

yea

rs

64

yea

rs

68

yea

rs

72

yea

rs

76

yea

rs

80

yea

rs

84

yea

rs

88

yea

rs

92

yea

rs

96

yea

rs

10

0 t

o 1

04

…

Po

pu

lati

on

Age

White (non-Hispanic)

Hispanic

11Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

Male White, Non-Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic

12

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

Male Hispanic Male Black, Non-Hispanic Male Asian, Non-Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic

Female Hispanic Female Black, Non-Hispanic Female Asian, Non-Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic

13



200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

Male White, Non-Hispanic Male Hispanic Male Black, Non-Hispanic Male Asian, Non-Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic

Female White, Non-Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non-Hispanic Female Asian, Non-Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic

14



Estimated number of persons aged 65 years and older, Texas Counties, 2010-2014

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

Tom

Green

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf

Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val

Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

Red

River

Karnes

Palo

Pinto

Glasscock

Shelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San

Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

Van

Zandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

San

Patricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

Hemphill

Hartley

Young

Burleson

Hardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

ComancheMitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff

Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim

Wells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort

Bend

Bosque

Hockley

San

Saba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

Jim

Hogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San

Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

Live

Oak

Motley

Sherman

Ochiltree

Comal

15

tl_2010_48_county10

Pop65P

6 - 4,999

5,000 - 14,999

15,000 - 29,999

30,000 - 74,999

75,000 - 371,456

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010-2014 5 Year Sample

Estimated Population Aged 65 Years and Older, Census Tracts, Houston area, Texas, 2010-2014

16Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010-2014 5 Year Sample

Brazoria

Harris

Montgomery

Grimes

Matagorda

Liberty

Wharton

Wharton

Waller

Galveston

ChambersAustin

Austin

FortBend

SanJacinto

Sources: Esri, HERE, DeLorme, USGS, Intermap, increment P Corp., NRCAN, EsriJapan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri (Thailand), MapmyIndia, ©OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS User Community

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

tl_2010_48_tract10

Pop65p

0 - 250

251 - 500

501 - 1,000

1,001 - 1,500

1,501 - 5,000

Median Age by State, 2008-2013

Te x a sTe x a s

M o n t a n aM o n t a n a

U t a hU t a h

I d a h oI d a h o

C a l i f o r n i aC a l i f o r n i a

N e v a d aN e v a d a

O r e g o nO r e g o n

A r i z o n aA r i z o n a

I o w aI o w a

M i c h i g a nM i c h i g a n

W y o m i n gW y o m i n g

C o l o r a d oC o l o r a d oK a n s a sK a n s a s

O h i oO h i o

N e w M e x i c oN e w M e x i c o

M i n n e s o t aM i n n e s o t a

N e b r a s k aN e b r a s k a

I l l i n o i sI l l i n o i s

M i s s o u r iM i s s o u r i

W a s h i n g t o nW a s h i n g t o n

W i s c o n s i nW i s c o n s i n

G e o r g i aG e o r g i a

O k l a h o m aO k l a h o m a

M a i n eM a i n e

N e w Y o r kN e w Y o r k

S o u t h D a k o t aS o u t h D a k o t a

N o r t h D a k o t aN o r t h D a k o t a

A l a b a m aA l a b a m a

A r k a n s a sA r k a n s a s

V i r g i n i aV i r g i n i a

I n d i a n aI n d i a n a

L o u i s i a n aL o u i s i a n a

K e n t u c k yK e n t u c k y

Te n n e s s e eTe n n e s s e e

P e n n s y l v a n i aP e n n s y l v a n i a

N o r t h C a r o l i n aN o r t h C a r o l i n a

F l o r i d aF l o r i d a

M i s s i s s i p p iM i s s i s s i p p i

S o u t h C a r o l i n aS o u t h C a r o l i n a

W e s t V i r g i n i aW e s t V i r g i n i a M a r y l a n dM a r y l a n d

V e r m o n tV e r m o n t

N e w J e r s e yN e w J e r s e y

M a s s a c h u s e t t sM a s s a c h u s e t t s

N e w H a m p s h i r eN e w H a m p s h i r e

C o n n e c t i c u tC o n n e c t i c u t

D e l a w a r eD e l a w a r e

R h o d e I s l a n dR h o d e I s l a n d

17

A l a s k aA l a s k a

Legend

tl_2013_us_state

MedianAge

30 - 35

36 - 38

39 - 40

41 - 42

43

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 2009-2013.

Median Age, Texas Counties, 2010-2014


Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

Tom

Green

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf

Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val

Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

Red

River

Karnes

Palo

Pinto

Glasscock

Shelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San

Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

Van

Zandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

San

Patricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

Hemphill

Hartley

Young

Burleson

Hardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

ComancheMitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff

Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim

Wells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort

Bend

Bosque

Hockley

San

Saba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

Jim

Hogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San

Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

Live

Oak

Motley

Sherman

Ochiltree

Comal

tl_2010_48_county10

MedAge

25 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 44

45 - 49

50 - 56

Median age, Census Tracts, Houston area, Texas, 2010-2014


Brazoria

Harris

Montgomery

Grimes

Matagorda

Liberty

Wharton

Wharton

Waller

Galveston

ChambersAustin

Austin

FortBend

SanJacinto


Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

tl_2010_48_tract10

MedianAge

0.0 - 10.0

10.1 - 29.9

30.0 - 34.9

35.0 - 44.9

45.0 - 55.0

Change in Median Age, Texas Counties, 2000-2014

Menard

Hale

Armstrong

Calhoun

Clay

Orange

Gonzales

Fannin

Kerr

Refugio

JimHogg

Dimmit

Nolan

Brazos

Jefferson

Bell

Bandera

Hidalgo

Schleicher

GraysonCrosby

Delta

Zavala

Rockwall

Eastland

DeWitt

Angelina

McLennan

Lamar

Leon

Stonewall

McMullen

Sutton

FortBend

Parker

Kinney

Fayette

Briscoe

Harrison

Reagan

Coleman

Ochiltree

Crane

Washington

Lynn

Mills

Oldham

Sabine

Hopkins

Houston

Bexar

Upton

Erath

Randall

Rusk

Coryell

Comal

Aransas

Jack

Hemphill

Shackelford

SanJacinto

Kendall

Wharton

Floyd

Karnes

Kaufman

Duval

Johnson

Franklin

EdwardsWaller

Maverick

Kleberg

Gaines

Martin

Bowie

Andrews

Potter

Garza

Caldwell

Parmer

TitusTerry

Foard

Real

Carson

Knox

Hays

Medina

MotleyWichita

Midland

Victoria

Tyler

Falls

Presidio

Willacy

Lubbock

Henderson

Walker

Galveston

Harris

Dawson

Pecos

Nacogdoches

Guadalupe

Tarrant

Jackson

Swisher

SterlingWinkler

Frio

Lipscomb

Collingsworth

Colorado

Wise

Glasscock

ShelbyComanche

Burnet

Gray

Hudspeth

Cass

Ellis

Cooke

Williamson

Cochran

VanZandt

Donley

Jones

Grimes

Irion

Navarro

Brooks

Dallam

Hunt

Mitchell

Wood

Childress

JeffDavis

Montague

Brown

Haskell

Fisher

Concho

Coke

Polk

Cottle

Young

Lee

Cherokee

Hall

Hood

ArcherBaylor

SanAugustine

Madison

Milam

Reeves

Nueces

Camp

Freestone

Runnels

Terrell

DeafSmith

Marion

Liberty

Jasper

Hansford

Chambers

Hardin

Collin

Brazoria

Throckmorton

Bastrop

Scurry

Ector

Limestone

Denton

RedRiver

Matagorda

Hardeman

PaloPinto

LiveOak

Sherman

Uvalde

Bailey

Culberson

Atascosa

Wilson

Starr

Dallas

Kimble

McCulloch

Crockett

Hill

Kent

El Paso

Loving

Dickens

La Salle

Lamb

Austin

Hutchinson

ValVerde

Smith

Robertson

Gillespie

King

TomGreen

Yoakum

Somervell

Kenedy

Borden

SanSaba

Burleson

Bee

Trinity

Castro

Brewster

Gregg

Ward

Wilbarger

Hamilton

Stephens

Lavaca

Bosque

Goliad

Roberts

Callahan

Rains

Morris

Lampasas

Upshur

Wheeler

SanPatricio

Moore

Webb

Blanco

Newton

Hockley

Panola

Anderson

Cameron

Montgomery

LlanoMason

Taylor

Hartley

JimWells

Zapata

Travis

Howard

20

Change in Median Age, 2000-2014

1 to 5 Years Younger (27 Counties)

No Change (57 Counties)

2 to 3 Years Older (100 Counties)

4 to 5 Years Older (49 Counties)

Greater than 5 Years Older (21 Counties)

Source: US Census Bureau US Census Bureau, 2000

Decennial Census, SF-1, Population Estimates 2014 Vintage.

Percent of the Population Aged 65 Years and Older by State, 2010-2014

21Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 2010-2014

Alaska

Hawaii

Alaska

W e s t V i r g i n i aW e s t V i r g i n i a

F l o r i d aF l o r i d a

I l l i n o i sI l l i n o i s

M i n n e s o t aM i n n e s o t a

M a r y l a n dM a r y l a n d

R h o d e I s l a n dR h o d e I s l a n d

I d a h oI d a h o

N e w H a m p s h i r eN e w H a m p s h i r e

N o r t h C a r o l i n aN o r t h C a r o l i n a

V e r m o n tV e r m o n t

C o n n e c t i c u tC o n n e c t i c u t

D e l a w a r eD e l a w a r e

N e w M e x i c oN e w M e x i c o

C a l i f o r n i aC a l i f o r n i a

N e w J e r s e yN e w J e r s e y

W i s c o n s i nW i s c o n s i n

O r e g o nO r e g o n

N e b r a s k aN e b r a s k a

P e n n s y l v a n i aP e n n s y l v a n i a

W a s h i n g t o nW a s h i n g t o n

L o u i s i a n aL o u i s i a n a

G e o r g i aG e o r g i a

A l a b a m aA l a b a m a

U t a hU t a h

O h i oO h i o

Te x a sTe x a s

C o l o r a d oC o l o r a d o

S o u t h C a r o l i n aS o u t h C a r o l i n aO k l a h o m aO k l a h o m a

Te n n e s s e eTe n n e s s e e

W y o m i n gW y o m i n g

N o r t h D a k o t aN o r t h D a k o t a

K e n t u c k yK e n t u c k y

M a i n eM a i n e

N e w Y o r kN e w Y o r k

N e v a d aN e v a d a

A l a s k aA l a s k a

M i c h i g a nM i c h i g a n

A r k a n s a sA r k a n s a s

M i s s i s s i p p iM i s s i s s i p p i

M i s s o u r iM i s s o u r i

M o n t a n aM o n t a n a

K a n s a sK a n s a s

I n d i a n aI n d i a n a

S o u t h D a k o t aS o u t h D a k o t a M a s s a c h u s e t t sM a s s a c h u s e t t s

V i r g i n i aV i r g i n i a

I o w aI o w a

A r i z o n aA r i z o n a

10% or Less (2 states)

10.1% - 14.5% (18 states)

14.6% - 15.5% (14 states)

15.6% - 16.5% (10 states)

16.6% - 19.1% (6 states)

Percent of the population aged 75 years and older, Texas Counties, 2009-2013

22

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

Tom

Green

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf

Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val

Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

Red

River

Karnes

Palo

Pinto

Glasscock

Shelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San

Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

Van

Zandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

San

Patricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

Hemphill

Hartley

Young

Burleson

Hardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

ComancheMitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff

Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim

Wells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort

Bend

Bosque

Hockley

San

Saba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

Jim

Hogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San

Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

Live

Oak

Motley

Sherman

Ochiltree

Comal

tl_2010_48_county10

pop75p

0% - 4.9%

5% - 7.5%

7.5% - 9.9%

10% - 12.4%

12.5% - 16.3%


20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Mill

ion

s

Zero Migration

0.5 of 2000-2010 Migration

2000-2010 Migration

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050

23Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections

24

25

25

26

26

27

27

28

28

Mill

ion

s

Zero Migration


2000-2010 Migration

Estimates

Projected and Estimated Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2015

24Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections and U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Mill

ion

s


2000-2010 Migration

Projected Growth of Population Aged 65 Years and Older in Texas, 2010-2050

25Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

19

50

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

14

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

Under 18

18 to 64

65+

Censuses Estimates Projections

26

Population Change by Age Group, Texas, 1950-2050

Source: US Census Bureau, 1950-2010 Censuses

US Census Bureau, State Population Estimates

Texas State Data Center, 2014 Population Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Under 18

18-64

65-85+

27

Projected Population Change by Age Group, Harris County, Texas, 1950-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center, 2014 Population Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario

Population Projections 65 Years and Over by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2050

28

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

NH White

NH Black

Hispanic

NH Other

Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections , Half 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Population Projections 65 Years and Over by Race/Ethnicity, Harris County, Texas, 2010-2050

29Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections , Half 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

NH White

NH Black

Hispanic

NH Other

Veteran Population in Texas and Houston Area Counties, 2010-2014

Texas Harris Montgomery Fort Bend Galveston

Total Civilian population 18 years and over 19,004,447 3,092,972 451,491 354,454 226,207

Veteran Civilian population 18 years and over 1,564,501 175,509 26,865 32,052 21,217 Veterans Percent of Civilian Population 8.2% 5.7% 6.0% 9.0% 9.4%



Percent Veterans in Gulf War (9/2001 or later) 16.8 15.9 14.6 12.2 14.8Percent of Veterans in Gulf War (8/1990 to 8/2001) 22.1 20.5 23.8 17.8 18.9Percent of Veterans of Vietnam era 34.8 32.7 34.0 37.9 36.3

Percent of Veterans of Korean War 9.1 8.5 6.6 8.2 8.8Percent of Veterans of World War II 5.8 5.9 4.4 5.1 5.7


Veteran Era of Service in Texas and Houston Area Counties, 2010-2014

Percent of the Total Population and Percent of Veterans by Age Groups, Texas and Houston Area Counties, 2010-2014


Percent of Total Population Aged 65 to 74 years 6.3 4.2 6.6 4.8 5.9Percent of Veterans Aged 65 to 74 years 18.3 14.0 18.3 17.6 17.1

Percent of Total Population Aged 75 and Older 8.7 7.6 9.5 7.2 9.7Percent of Veterans Aged 75 and Older 20.6 20.6 20.8 20.6 24.3


Percent of the Total Population and Veterans Living Below Poverty and with Any Disability, Texas and

Houston Area Counties, 2010-2014


Percent of the Total Population Below Poverty 14.9 7.3 11.5 15.1 10.4

Percent of Veterans Below Poverty 6.8 4.4 6.0 7.5 4.5

Percent of Total Population with any disability 14.5 9.0 15.3 11.5 13.5Percent of Veterans with any disability 27.0 20.3 26.1 23.6 25.7


Percent of the population aged 65 years and older who are Veterans, Census Tracts, Houston area, Texas, 2010-2014

Brazoria

Harris

Montgomery

Grimes

Matagorda

Liberty

Wharton

Wharton

Waller

Galveston

ChambersAustin

Austin

FortBend

SanJacinto


34

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

tl_2010_48_tract10

Pct65pVet

0% - 10%

10.1% - 20%

20.1% - 30%

30.1% - 40%

40.1% - 90%


Percent of the Population Aged 65 Years and Older without Health Insurance, Texas Counties, 2010-2014

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

Tom

Green

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf

Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val

Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

Red

River

Karnes

Palo

Pinto

Glasscock

Shelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San

Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

Van

Zandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

San

Patricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

Hemphill

Hartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

ComancheMitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff

Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim

Wells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort

Bend

Bosque

Hockley

San

Saba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

Jim

Hogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San

Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

Live

Oak

Motley

Sherman

Ochiltree

Comal

35

tl_2010_48_county10

Pct65pNoHlthIns

0% - 0.5%

0.6% - 1%

1.1% - 2.5%

2.6% - 5%

5.1% - 7.8%

Estimated number and percent of persons with a disability for Texas and Houston Area Counties, 2010-2014


Total Population with a disability 2,969,042 392,304 51,831 47,553 37,136

Percent with a disability 11.6 9.2 10.7 7.6 12.5

Population 65 years and over with a disability 1,103,018 134,996 19,757 16,405 13,491

Percent of population 65 years and over with a disability 39.9 37.0 36.5 31.2 38.1


Percent of the population aged 65 years and older with an independent living disability, Texas Counties, 2010-2014

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

Tom

Green

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf

Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val

Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

Red

River

Karnes

Palo

Pinto

Glasscock

Shelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San

Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

Van

Zandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

San

Patricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

Hemphill

Hartley

Young

Burleson

Hardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

ComancheMitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff

Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim

Wells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort

Bend

Bosque

Hockley

San

Saba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

Jim

Hogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San

Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

Live

Oak

Motley

Sherman

Ochiltree

Comal

37

tl_2010_48_county10

Pct65pIndepLivDisab

0% - 15%

15.1% - 20%

20.1% - 25%

25.1% - 30%

30.1% - 100%


Percent of the population aged 65 years and older with an independent living disability, Texas Counties, 2010-2014


Brazoria

Harris

Montgomery

Grimes

Matagorda

Liberty

Wharton

Wharton

Waller

Galveston

ChambersAustin

Austin

FortBend

SanJacinto


Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

tl_2010_48_tract10

Pct65pActiveLivDis

0% - 10%

10.1% - 20%

20.1% - 30%

30.1% - 45%

45.1% - 100%

Adult Obesity

39Source: http://stateofobesity.org/files/stateofobesity2015.pdf

Obesity Prevalence

40% adults with obesity: Office of the State Demographer, 2000-2004 Projection

Projected Number of Adults with Diabetes by Race and Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2040

41

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

Total

Latino

Anglo

African American

Other

Diabetes Prevalence

42% adults with diabetes: Office of the State Demographer, 2000-2004 Projection

RNs and LVNs Working in Nursing Homes and Extended Care Facilities per 1,000 Persons Aged 65 Years and Older, Texas

Counties, 2015

43Sources: Texas Board of Nursing, 2016 and U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010-2014 5 Year

Sample

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

Tom

Green

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf

Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Val

Verde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

Red

River

Karnes

Palo

Pinto

Glasscock

Shelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

San

Augustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

Van

Zandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

San

Patricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

Hemphill

Hartley

Young

Burleson

Hardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

ComancheMitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

Jeff

Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

Jim

Wells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort

Bend

Bosque

Hockley

San

Saba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

Jim

Hogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San

Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

Live

Oak

Motley

Sherman

Ochiltree

Comal

tl_2010_48_county10

NHExtCare1k65p

0.0 - 0.5

0.6 - 1.5

1.6 - 2.5

2.6 - 3.5

3.6 - 4.5

Physicians per 1,000 Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2011

44Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Census and Texas Medical Board (2011 physicians).

Dallas

Howard

Foard

Floyd

Brewster

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

DeafSmith

Roberts

Tyler

ValVerde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

RedRiver

Karnes

PaloPinto

Glasscock Shelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

SanAugustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

Van

Zandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

Trinity

Reeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

LaSalle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

Fisher

Dawson

Dimmit

Limestone

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Moore

Menard

Edwards

SanPatricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

Hemphill

Hartley

Young

Hardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

HarrisonMitchell

Navarro

Crane

LubbockWise

Washington

Jeff

Davis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

JimWells

Delta

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

FortBend

Bosque

Hockley

San

Saba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

Jim

Hogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

San

Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

Sherman Ochiltree

Comal

ProjectedPop

PhysperPop65p / none

0

0.01 - 5

5.1 - 15

16 - 25

26 - 74

Review

• Growth and diversity

• “Young” aging rapidly

• Aging Veteran’s

• Disability numbers

• Health issues

• Labor force

45

Office: (210) 458-6530

[email protected]

Demographics.Texas.gov

Lloyd B. Potter, Ph.D.State Demographer

46

@TexasDemography

mailto:[email protected]

Demographics.Texas.gov

demographics of aging, disabilities, and veteran and...

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