demographics of aging

The Demographics of Aging in the United States

POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU | www.prb.org

Mark Mather, Associate Vice President, U.S. Programs, PRB

May 2014

© 2014 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org

In the U.S., the Number of People Ages 65 and Older Will More Than Double By 2050.


The Age Profile of the U.S. Population Has Shifted, from 1970 …

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.


Through the Present (2010)…



And Into the Future (2030).



By 2030, One in Five Americans Will Be Ages 65 and Older.

Source: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.


Source: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2012 Population Estimates.

Older Americans Make Up At Least 20 Percent of the Population of One-Fifth of U.S. Counties.


By 2030, There Will Only Be Three Working-Age Adults For Every Person Age 65 or Older.


Elderly Support Ratio: Number of persons ages 18-64 per person ages 65+


Source: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2012 Population Estimates.

One in Three Counties Already Has An Elderly Support Ratio of Three or Less.


Social Security and Medicare Expenditures Are Projected to Reach 12% of GDP by 2050.

Source: A Summary of the 2013 Annual Social Security and Medicare Trust Fund Reports.


Changes in Family Patterns May Result in Less Availability of Family Caregivers in U.S.

High rates of divorce.

Increasing cohabitation and nonmarital childbearing.

Blended families.


Households Have Changed Significantly Since the 1940s.

NOTE: Percentages for subcategories may not sum to category totals due to rounding.SOURCE: U.S. Census bureau, decennial censuses from 1940 to 2010.

Percent


Over Two-Fifths of Older Americans Live Alone.

NOTE: Percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding.SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey.

Percent


Disability Rates are Increasing.

Disability rates among Medicare enrollees age 65+ declined from 1984 through 1999, but have been increasing since 2000.

Increasing disability rates combined with the large number of baby boomers could mean shortages of nursing homes and other long-term care facilities in the future.


Does U.S. Population Aging Really Matter?

Yes… For federal government and many states,

local areas Current law hard to sustain for entitlement

programs Impact on health care system Potential shortage of caregivers and

shrinking social networks


But the U.S. Population is Relatively Young Compared with Many Other Developed Countries.


Compare the U.S. with Projected Population in Japan (2030).



Children Will Outnumber Older Americans in U.S. Until 2050.

Percent of Total Population: 1950-2060

Source: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.



Nearly Half of the U.S. Population will be Racial/Ethnic Minorities by 2030.

Percent of U.S. Population by Race/Ethnicity: 1980-2030



But Children are Expected to Pass the “Majority-Minority” Threshold Sooner.

Percent of U.S. Population Under age 18 by Race/Ethnicity: 1980-2030


*Minorities include all racial and ethnic groups except non-Hispanic whites. Source: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.

There is a Racial/Ethnic Divide Between Generations.Percent of the U.S. Population That Is Minority*, by Age Group: 1980, 2010, 2030


Fertility Rates Have Leveled Off but the Foreign-Born Population has Increased.


The Non-Hispanic White Population is Aging Rapidly as Baby Boomers Reach Retirement Age.

Population by Age and Sex, U.S. White Alone, not Hispanic or Latino: 2012



The Latino Population has a Younger Age Structure Because of Higher Fertility and Past Immigration.


Population by Age and Sex, U.S. Hispanic or Latino: 2012


Both Older Men and Older Women are Working More.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.


And More Adults Ages 55+ Have Completed College.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey.


Does U.S. Population Aging Really Matter?

No… U.S. is young, relative to Europe Population aging is selective, affecting some

groups more than others Baby boomers can cope better than previous

generations Staying in labor force Better educated


Implications for Future

Major demographic changes are underway More racial/ethnic minorities Older boomers—many staying in labor force Juxtaposition of older boomers (mostly white) and

children/young adults who are increasingly Latino, Asian, multiracial

Will future labor force have necessary skills/education to sustain economic growth and support an aging population?


Thank You!

Mark [email protected]

demographics of aging

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