demographic dimensions of portugals crisis

7/31/2019 Demographic Dimensions of Portugals Crisis

1/36

Rd~pxloc} Cddiael ]dmaoc oe` @hidl~orfam M~a}a}

H`|o~` Fxlf ) N~x}}hc}; Kxeh >2?>


2/36

Fh~h} Pfh R~dnchi

Dwh~ pfh ro}p phe qho~} pfh Rd~pxlxh}h hmdediq fo} nhhe wa~pxoccq}popadeh~q% Pfh r~dnchi a} edp# edph# }aircq o Hx~d deh# }aemh pfh `hmcaeh

}po~ph` ae pfh ia` ?112}# oe` fo} ehwh~ nhhe ~hwh~}h`%


3/36

Fh~h} oedpfh~ |oq dg cddjael op pfh }oih a}}xh% Rd~pxlxh}h L@R ~d}h ~ora`cq

ae pfh ?112}# oe` pfhe ixmf id~h }cd|cq ae pfh ga~}p `hmo`h dg pfh >?}pmhepx~q%

]p~xmpx~oc ~hgd~i} xe`h~pojhe o} ro~p dg pfh noacdxp r~dl~oiih ioq fhcr o

cappch# nxp pfh~h a} mcho~ }dihpfael id~h ldael de fh~h pfoe }aircq o }iocc#

phird~o~q cd}} dg l~d|pf `qeoiam% Mdxc` ap nh pfop o} rdrxcopade} lhp dc`h~

l~d|pf lhp} }cd|h~# d~ hwhe px~e} ehlopawh4


4/36

Ae pfa} r~h}hepopade A |acc o~lxh pfop

Pfh id}p ~hmhep m~a}a} |o} edp oe o~nap~o~q rfhedihede

Pfh~h a} oe xe`h~cqael r~dmh}} |h ehh` pd xe`h~}poe`

Hx~drh} `hnp m~a}a} a} ed| heph~ael o `hma}awh rfo}h%

Xe~h}d wh a}}xh} |a howh o hlomq% Deh | am mdx |hal`d|e oeq ~hmdwh~q oe` cho` pd id~h }h~adx} r~dnchi} ae pfh

gxpx~h%

Ae ro~pamxco~;

o! Pfh Hva}phemh dg o @hnp Dwh~foel

n! Pfh Airomp dg Olhael oe` @hmcaeael Rdrxcopade}


5/36

]d \fop \o} Pfh Lcdnoc M~a}a} Occ Ondxp4

Ap |o} occ ondxp

`hnp# oe` ondxpfd| fhowacq

ae`hnph` }dmahpah}

onch pd mco| pfha~

|oq nomj pd

l~d|pf%

Pfh Jhq Rdaep} Pd L~o}r Pfa} R~dmh}} A} ]p~xmpx~oc# Edp Mqmcamoc#

oe` ap a} o @hwhcdrh` Hmdediq M~a}a}# Edp ]aircq O Hx~d Deh


6/36

]d Kx}p \fq \o} Pfh~h ]d Ixmf @hnp4

No`cq ]p~xmpx~h` Gaeoemaoc R~d`xmp}4

Rdd~ ^hlxcopade4

D~ \o} Pfh~h ]dihpfael Hc}h Ldael De4


7/36

Mo}h ]px`q; Pfh Hx~d{dehFh~h a} o jhq ro~p dg pfhrx{{ch% @x~ael pfh ga~}p ?2 qho~}

dg pfh Hx~d }dih Hx~drhoe

mdxep~ah} nd~~d|h` fhowacq#

|fach dpfh~} chep% O} o ~h}xcp

]roae} fdx}hfdc`} mdep~omph`

o cdp dg `hnp% Qhp Lh~ioe

fdx}hfdc`} a`ep%

\fq pfa}`aggh~hemh4


8/36

Deh Mdewhepadeoc Ommdxep

Pfh deh }a{h gap} occ

idehpo~q rdcamq

àèp |d~j% ]roae

fo` ehlopawh aeph~h}p

~oph} `x~ael pfh jhqqho~} dg pfh fdx}ael

nddi%

Nxp pfop }pacc chowh} x} |apf o xh}pade; |fq àèp ap |d~j4


9/36

M~h`ap @~awhe R~awoph Mde}xirpade Nddi}

\fq `d }dih

mdxep~ah} fowh

pfh}h |fachdpfh~} `dep4

%

Pfh decq ~hoc `aggh~hemh a} ae pfh

Paiael%

Lh~ioeq ?11> ?111

]roae >222 ) >226


10/36

Mx~~hep Ommdxep Ncxh}

Lh~ioeq `a`ep oc|oq}

~xe o mx~~hep ommdxep

}x~rcx}% Occ pf~dxlfpfh ?112} pfh mx~~hep

ommdxep |o} ae `hgamap%

Oe` ]roae |dep

oc|oq} ~xe o mx~~hep

ommdxep `hgamap# hwheag pfop }hhi} fo~` pd

nhcahwh ~alfp ed|%


11/36

Pfh Jhq >8 pd 01 Olh L~dxr

Pfa} l~dxr rhojh` ae

Lh~ioeq o} o ( dg

pdpoc rdrxcopade o~dxe`

pfh px~e dg pfh mhepx~q%

Oe` ae ]roae ap rhojh`

pd|o~`} pfh he` dg pfhga~}p `hmo`h dg pfa}

mhepx~q%


12/36

Mdxc` ]dihpfael O} ]airch O} Ih`aoe Rdrxcopade Olh

Fhcr X} Xe`h~}poe`4Dx~} a} oe olh dg ~ora`cq

olhael }dmahpah}% \fop a}

}d id`h~e ondxp dx~

mx~~hep }apxopade a} edppfh olhael ap}hcg# nxp ap}

whcdmapq# oe` ap} lcdnoc

hv he} de%

@dh} ih`aoe rdrxcopade olh

fowh }dihpfael pd `d |apf

l~d|pf4 Id}p r~dgh}}adeochmdedia}p} `heq pfa} pd nh pfh

mo}h# nxp pd ioeq ede

hmdedia}p} pfh mdeehmpade a}

aepxapawhcq dnwadx}%


13/36

Rdrxcopade Olhael O Xeaxh Fa}pd~amoc Mfocchelh

Pfh hmdediam oe` }dmaoc aircamopade} dg pfh olhael

r~dmh}} o~h ldael pd nh r~dgdxe`%

pfh r~dmh}} a} }hhiaelcq a~~hwh~}anch%

Ed dpfh~ }aelch gd~mh a} cajhcq pd rcoq }xmf oe

hmdediam fhocpf# rxncam gaeoemh}# oe` rdcamqiojael dwh~pfh mdiael `hmo`h

]p~oelhcq# pfh a}}xh ~hmhawh} decq o g~ompade dg pfh

opphepade pfop fo} nhhe `hwdph` pd lcdnoc mcaioph

mfoelh# hwhe pfdxlf# o~lxoncq# olhael a} o r~dnchi dx~

}dmaoc oe` rdcapamoc }q}phi} o~h# ae r~aemarch# ixmf

nhpph~ hxarrh` pd `hoc |apf%


14/36

O} go~ o} |h o~h onch pd xe`h~}poe` pfh a}}xh op pfa}

rdaep# rdrxcopade olhael |acc fowh iokd~ hmdediamairomp} oe` pfh}h moe nh mophld~a}h` xe`h~ gdx~ ioae

fho`ael};

a! olhael |acc ogghmp pfh }a{h dg pfh |d~jael olh rdrxcopade# oe`|apf pfa} pfh chwhc dg p~he` hmdediam l~d|pf ae deh mdxep~q ogph~

oedpfh~

olh el | o hm ro h~e} d eo deo }ow el oe d~~d| el# oe

|apf pfh}h pfh `a~hmpade} oe` ioleapx`h} dg lcdnoc morapoc gcd|}

aaa! pf~dxlf pfh }owael oe` nd~~d|ael ropf pfh r~dmh}} moe

aegcxhemh wocxh} dg jhq o}}hp} cajh fdx}ael oe` hxapah}

aw! pf~dxlf mfoelh} ae pfh `hrhe`hemq ~opad# olhael |acc aegcxhemh

r~h}}x~h de lcdnoc }dwh~hale `hnp# r~d`xmael }aleagamoep mfoelh} ae

~oejael o} nhp|hhe hwhcdrh` oe` hih~lael hmdediah}%


15/36

\fach rdrxcopade olhael a} xeawh~}oc pfh }fd~p ph~i airomp

|acc nh ixmf id~h cdmoca}h`% Pfh romh dg olael wo~ah}l~hopcq om~d}} mdxep~ah} oe` ~hlade}%

Pfh hgghmp} dg pfh r~dmh}} o~h hvrhmph` pd nh id}p

r~dedxemh` ae pfd}h mdxep~ah} pfop ~hioaeh` mdircomhepae pfh gomh dg xcp~o)cd| gh~pacapq ~oph} &pdpoc gh~pacapq ~oph} dg

?%8 oe` xe`h~!# |famf ae hgghmp ihoe} Koroe# pfh Lh~ioe

}rho el mdxep~ h} oe ixm d dxp h~e oe o}ph~e

Hx~drh%


16/36

Oedpfh~ |oq dg cddjael op pfh}h `hidl~orfam mfoelh} a} ae

ph~i} dg pfh `hrhe`hemq ~opad# |famf moe nh `hgaeh` ae oexinh~ dg àggh~hep |oq} `hrheàel de pfh r~dnchi nhael

o``~h}}h`%

Pfh hc`h~cq `hrhe`hemq ~opad ae Lh~ioeq a} ~a}ael ixmf id~h ~ora`cq pfoe ap a} ae

hapfh~ pfh XJ d~ G~oemh% Ap a} ~hoccq fo~` gd~ ih pd nhcahwh pfop pfa} r~dgdxe`

àggh~hemh |dep nh ~hgchmph` ae eopadeoc |hocpf r~d`xmpade d~ L@R rh~ morapo%


17/36

Aird~poemh Dg Pfh R~aih Olh L~dxr}

H}paioph} dg pfh hvomp olh

hvphe}ade dg pfh àggh~hep

l~dxr} wo~q# nxp >8)02 |dxc`

nh o ldd` ~xch dg pfxiniho}x~h dg pfh nd~~d|ael

~oelh# 02 pd 88 gd~ pfh rhoj

Pfh jhq l~dxr} o~h r~aih

}owh~}# r~aih nd~~d|h~}# oe`

r~aih r~d`xmpawh |d~jh~}%

\fh~h pfh}h ompxoc olhn~omjhp} cah# oe` pfh hvphep pd

|famf pfhq ioq dwh~cor# a} }pacc

}owh~}# oe d d~ h

r~aih olh |d~jh~}%

Nhqde` pfa}# pfh xh}pade a} oe

hira~amoc deh dg iho}x~aeloe` ph}pael pd `hph~iaeh id~h

r~hma}h ndxeò~ah} oe`

g~depah~}%

o }x hm d }dih mde ~dwh~}q#

Deh dg pfh jhq rdaep} pd l~o}r# a} pfop

pfh r~drd~pade pfh rdrxcopade |famf a}

pd nh gdxe` ae deh dg pfh r~aih olh

l~dxr} op o lawhe idihep ae paih# a}on}dcxphcq m~apamoc# oe` ixmf id~h

aird~poep gd~ xe`h~}poeàel pfh

r~dmh}}h} op |d~j pfoe pfh ih~h }a{h

dg pfh |d~jael olh rdrxcopade%


18/36

Cagh Mqmch Hgghmp}

Pfh~h a} o lheh~occq ommhrph` |a}`di ae omo`hiam |d~j jed|e

o} pfh cagh mqmch fqrdpfh}a} &Idàlcaoea!% Pfa} }xllh}p} pfop pfh

rdrxcopade} gaeoemaoc nhfowadx~ mfoelh} `hrheàel de olh% Aeph~i} dg o`xcp cagh# pfd}h ae pfha~ p|hepah} oe` ho~cq pfa~pah} phe`

pd nh ehp nd~~d|h~} o} pfhq o~h ~hcopawhcq cd| ho~eh~} op pfh

}oih paih o} pfh cddj pd nx fdx}ae hv he}awh x~onch} oe`

gxe` pfha~ nx~lhdeael goiacah}% Op }dih rdaep o~dxe` ia``ch)olh pfa} l~dxr pfhe phe`} pd idwh g~di nhael ehp nd~~d|h~} pd

ehp aewh}pd~} o} pfhq idwh aepd pfha~ hmdediam r~aih oe`

ommxixcoph gaeoemaoc o}}hp} pd fdrhgxccq gxe` pfha~ ~hpa~hihep%

O} pfhq orr~domf ~hpa~hihep pfa} l~dxr pfhe }po~p pd }fh` pfh

gaeoemaoc o}}hp} pfhqwh nhhe ommxixcopael pd gxe` pfha~

ede|d~jael òq}%


19/36

Rd~pxloc# cajh occ Hx~drhoe

}dmahpah} a} olhael xaph

~ora`cq

Mo}h ]px`q Rd~pxloc

Oe` pfh ioae ~ho}de

gd~ pfa} a}# dg mdx~}h#

cdel ph~i wh~q cd|

gh~pacapq


20/36

Xeaxh Rd~pxlxh}h Ghopx~h}

Rd~pxloc ae }dih |oq} ~h}hinch}

Ho}p Hx~drhoe }dmahpah}% Pfh

mdxep~q cd}p rdrxcopade `x~ael

pfh HX mdxrcael qho~}# oe` pfh

rfhedihede fo} chgp o co}pael

}mo~ de pfh hmdediq oe` pfh

}dmahpq%

Rd~pxloc |hep g~di nhael o

ehp hial~opade }dmahpq pd

nhael o ehp aiial~opade deh%

Nxp ed| |apf pfh coph}p m~a}a}

pfh `a~hmpade dg ial~oep gcd|}

a} demh id~h ~hwh~}ael# ae o

|oq |famf r~h}hep} wh~q

}h~adx} r~dnchi} gd~ o cd|

gh~pacapq }dmahpq%


21/36

Rd~pxlxh}h Cawael ]poeò~`} Fowh

]poleoph` Dwh~ Pfh Co}p @hmo`h

Go~ g~di Hx~d ihinh~}far nhael oe xeiapaloph` }xmmh}} gd~ Rd~pxloc# pfh mdxep~q

fo} }hhe o }h~adx} comj dg l~d|pf ae cawael }poeò~`} oe` o cd}} dg ~hcopawh rd}apade

ae pfh Hx~d cholxh% Pd pojh deh hvoirch# |fach xr pd pfh dxpn~hoj dg pfh m~a}a}

cawael }poeò~`} ae ]cdwheao }phoàcq ~d}h pd|o~`} pfh HX owh~olh# Rd~pxloc}

~hcopawh rd}apade ghcc nomj oe` pfhe }poleoph`%


22/36

O} Hc}h|fh~h Pfh Mx~~hep M~a}a} A} Co~lhcq Ondxp @hnp

Rd~pxloc } hmdediq ioq edp

fowh l~d|e# nxp pfh mdxep~q

fo} ommxixcoph` o co~lh

idxepoae dg ndpf r~awoph oe`

rxncam }hmpd~ `hnp dwh~ pfhco}p hmo`h%

Pfh~h a} ondxp >82 naccade hx~d}

ae r~awoph }hmpd~ `hnp oe` ?72(% \apfdxp

l~d|pf pfa} a} mcho~cq edp

}x}poaeonch%


23/36

Rd~pxloc fo} ed| fo` oe aeapaoc


24/36

Oe` PfhP~dajo Mde}a}phepcq Lawh Pfh Mdxep~q Lcd|ael ^hrd~p}


25/36

Ocdel \apf Pfh @hgamap Hwhe Pfh Nde` Qahc`} O~h Mdiael @d|e


26/36

]d \fh~h} Pfh R~dnchi4

\hcc# pfh hmdediq a} ae `hhr ~hmh}}ade%

Pfh AIG hvrhmp pfh hmdediq pd

mdep~omp nq =%=( ae >2?># oe` ~hpx~e

pd paia` l~d|pf ae >2?= &2%=(!% Pfh~h

o~h }p~del `d|e}a`h ~a}j} pd pfh >2?=gd~hmo}p# oe` ap a} edp air~dnonch pfh

hmdediq |acc demh id~h mdep~omp%

Xehircdqihep a} ed| ~a}ael

}fo~rcq% Oro~p g~di pfh }dmaoc

`a}p~h}} mox}h` pfa} }x~lh ae

xehircdqihep a} fowael p|d

mde}hxhemh}% @hgamap po~lhp} |acc

edp nh ihp# oe` pfh qdxel oe`

h`xmoph` o~h chowael pfh eopadeoc

}far%


27/36

Pfh Ga~}p Mde}hxhemh ) O ]hmde` Noacdxp Cddj} Wh~q Cajhcq

Pfh mdeehmpade nhp|hhe

Rh`~d Ro}}d} Mdhcfd

xehircdqihep oe` pfh

}hmde` noacdxp a} pfop

xehircdqihep a}

r~d`xmael o `hgamap ae pfh

}dmaoc }hmx~apq gxe`%

]d pfh mdxep~q ioq ehh` o ~hcovopade ae pfh noacdxp r~dl~oiih ga}moc po~lhp}# oe` pfh

~hehldpaopade dg pfh}h mdxc` |hcc r~dwa`h pfh mdephvp gd~ o gxcc }hmde` noacdxp%


28/36

Ae O``apade Qdxel H`xmoph` Rhdrch O~h Aem~ho}aelcq Chowael

\fq a} pfa} o r~dnchi4 \hcc pfaej dg pfh

olhael }dmahpq oe` l~d|pf r~dnchi} A

ihepadeh` ho~cah~% Ae gomp hmdediah} hva}p

ae ~hoc fa}pd~amoc paih oe` edp pfh a`hoc

}poph }romh rd}pxcoph` nq ehdmco}}amoc

hmdediam}% Pfhq o~h ropf `hrhe`hep

hepapaph} oe` drrd~pxeapah} cd}p ed| fowh

rh~ioehep mde}hxhemh}%

io~jhp gchvanacapq# nxp |h oc}d ehh` omdiide P~ho}x~q pd iojh rhe}ade}

}x}poaeonch%


29/36

Oe` Pfh Noejael ]q}phi ^hioae} Dwh~`hrhe`hep De Pfh HMN


30/36

]d |fhe \acc Pfh ]hmde` Noacdxp Forrhe4

Cajhcq `oph ]hrphinh~% \fq4

\hcc Rd~pxloc a} r~dl~oiih`

pd ~hpx~e pd pfh io~jhp} pd

gaeoemh nde`} ae ]hrphinh~

>2?=# oe` pfh AIG fo} ogaeoemael lxo~oephh` ?>

idepf} ofho` ~xch%

Oe` Fd| Ixmf \acc Ap Md}p4

Id~h pfoe cajhcq ae pfh ~hlade dg 82 naccade hx~d} >0%> naccade gd~

gaeoemael ae >2?=$?0# rcx} oedpfh~ >7%1 naccade hx~d} gd~ >2?8% Oe`

pfhe }dihpfael pd occd| gd~ pfh |d~}heael hmdediam }mheo~ad oe` pfh~hcovh` `hgamap mde`apade}%


31/36

R]A Xecajhcq Op Pfa} Rdaep

Pfh io~jhp} fowh rxcch` nomj }aemh

ho~cah~ pfa} qho~# oe` o~h ed| edp

r~amael ae R]A%

Nxp Rd~pxlxh}h `hnp a}

nocoemh` de o jeagh h`lh #

oe` R]A ae pfh cdelh~ ph~i a}

edp air~dnonch%


32/36

\fh~h @dh} Occ Pfop Chowh X}4

Ae o Deh ]phr Gd~|o~`%%%% d~

}hwh~oc fxe`~h` naccade }phr}

nomj }apxopade

Ioqnh |d~c` cho`h~}

fowh nhhe hvollh~opael

pfh paih }moch# nxp pfh

~a}j} o~h ~hoc


33/36

\fop Moe Nh @deh4

o! ]fdplxe \h``ael

n! Gxcc Noejael Xeade

m! Mdiide Ga}moc P~ho}x~q

`! Mhep~oc Noej onch pd omp cajh pfh NdK# pfh NdH oe` pfh X] Gh`h~oc ^h}h~wh

h! Ch}} ox}ph~apq oe` mdiide gaeoemh pd }xrrd~p pfh wo~adx} hmdediah} |fach

ixmf ehh`h` }p~xmpx~oc ~hgd~i} o~h xe`h~pojhe%

% #

kx}p 8 iaexph} oe` ioqnh qdx |acc mfoelh qdx~ iae`}%


34/36

Ed Ho}q Oe}|h~} Op Pfa} Rdaep

Hgghmpawhcq A oi }xllh}pael

px~eael Hx~drh aepd o

}hmde` Koroe% Nxp Koroe}

rxncam `hnp ropf a} edp cdelph~i }x}poaeonch% Koroe

mdxc`ep hvap pfh Qhe mdxc`

ap4

No}amoccq |h o~h gomh` |apf o mdirchv }hp dg r~dnchi} |famf |h~h

ehwh~ gd~h}hhe ae hmdediam pfhd~q% \h `dep cawh ae o rh~ghmp |d~c`%

Oelhco ih~jhc a} |~del de ox}ph~apq# nxp a} ~alfp pfop ae pfh cdelh~

~xe `hnp ehh`} pd nh }x}poaeonch oe` dx~ hmdediah} }ponch# oe` edp

~xeeael de gxeeq idehq ae o |oq |famf |acc he` ae pho~}%


35/36

]d \fop Moe Nh @deh Ae Rd~pxloc4

]fd~p Ph~i;

) Mdepaexael oe` Mdepaexdx} ]p~xmpx~oc ^hgd~i

Ch}} Ox}ph~apq Id~h L~d|pf ]xrrd~p

Mdepaexael Condx~ Io~jhp ^hgd~i

Rhe}ade ^hgd~i

Fhopf ]q}phi ^hgd~i

Aiial~opade

Cdelh~ Ph~i

^oa}h Gh~pacapq ^oph}

Lcdnoc ^hnocoemael Aeapaopawh} Ommhrpoemh pfop pfh Id`h~e L~d|pf

H~o cajh id`h~eapq ap}hcg `dh}ep

co}p gd~hwh~%


36/36

Pfoej Qdx Gd~ Qdx~ Opphepade

demographic dimensions of portugals crisis

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