demographic change in europe: with a focus on longevity james w. vaupel presented by harald...
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Demographic Change in Europe:with a focus on Longevity
James W. Vaupelpresented by Harald Wilkoszewski
EPRS/ALLEA/ESF presentation, 24 March 2015
www.population-europe.eu
The advancing frontier of survivalThe decline in chances of death in Germany at ages 85, 90 and 95
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.0
0 .1
0 .2
0 .3
0 .4
Age 85Age 90Age 95
Year x
q(x
)
Women
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.0
0 .1
0.2
0 .3
0 .4
q(x
)
Men
The explosion of centenarians
1861 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
02
004
00
600
800
100
012
00
140
01
600
180
0
Num
ber
of w
omen
100
+ o
r 10
5+
Year
Swedes 100+
Japanese 105+
Age
The Postponement of Senescence: Evidence from Sweden
Data from Human Mortality Database. Also see Christensen…Vaupel, Lancet 2009, 2013.
30 40 50 60 70 80 90
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
11950
1980
2010
57 6863
Swedish FemalesAge 30-90
Ris
k o
f D
eath
68=57
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
Germany
Japan
Sweden
Iceland
Norway
Australia
Netherlands
Switzerland
New Zealand
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020Year
Lif
e e
xpe
cta
nc
y in
ye
ars
The life expectancy revolution
2004
198493 = 87
The postponement of senescence% cognitively impaired, U.S. 1984 vs. 2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
%
65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95+
Age
MaxO Odense
MPIDR Rostock
MPG Munich