demographic and enrolment trends 2013
TRANSCRIPT
DEMOGRAPHICS AND
ENROLMENT TRENDS
Avon Maitland District School Board
March 26, 2013
Presented By:
Jack Ammendolia, Associate Director
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Population Trends
1
The National Perspective
•The Canadian population grew by almost 12% between 2001 and 2011. • Canada had a higher rate of growth between 2001 and 2011 than any other of the G8 countries. • About 2/3’s of Canada’s growth was due to international migration – the majority of growth in the United States is due to natural increase.
While the country continues to experience overall population growth, Canada has been experiencing long term enrolment decline. The number of children aged 4-13 declined by more than 7% between 2001 and 2011.
Ontario
2
The Province of Ontario’s overall population continues to grow.
Ontario’s population growth is largely driven by international migration – between 2001 and 2006,
600,000 immigrants settled in Ontario.
The Province grew by more than the National average from 2001-2006 (6.6%) as it had for more than a decade. This represented a population increase of about 750,000 people – approximately half of Canada’s total population growth. Between 2006 and 2011 the Province’s population continued to grow but by less than 6% - the first time in more than a decade that it grew less than the National average.
Provincial School Aged Population
Trends
3
CENSUS POPULATIONS
Age 1996 2001
Change 1996-2001 2006
Change 2001-2006 2011
Change 2006-2011
0-3 581,745 529,145 -52,600 535,210 6,065 560,830 25,620
4-13 1,490,495 1,547,950 57,455 1,507,260 -40,690 1,459,685 -47,575
14-18 702,110 776,600 74,490 838,420 61,820 847,250 8,830
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
0-3 4-13 14-18
1996
2001
2006
2011
Ontario - What To Expect?
4
Ontario births have started to increase over the past several years after more than a decade of significant declines. Between 2000 and 2005 births increased by 5%. Since 2005 births
have increased by about 1% per year on average – similar to the population increase.
115,000
120,000
125,000
130,000
135,000
140,000
145,000
150,000
155,000
1991 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
NU
MB
ER
OF
BIR
TH
S
YEAR
Ontario Live Births
The increasing trend in the number of births is promising – it should be noted however, that current births are still more than 7% lower than levels from the early
1990’s
AMDSB Demographic Trends
Board Wide
5
2001 Share Of 2006 Share Of 2011 Share Of
Population Data Census Total Census Total Census Total
Total Population 132,319 132,505 133,755
Pre-School Population (0-3) 6,399 4.8% 6,013 4.5% 5,994 4.5%
Elementary School Population (4-13) 19,144 14.5% 17,206 13.0% 15,853 11.9%
Secondary School Population (14-18) 10,069 7.6% 10,019 7.6% 9,268 6.9%
Population Over 18 Years of Age 96,708 73.1% 99,268 74.9% 102,640 76.7%
Females Aged 25-44 17,358 13.1% 16,079 12.1% 14,718 11.0%
2001-2006 2006-2011
Absolute % Share Absolute % Share
Population Data Change Change Change Change Change Change
Total Population 186 0.1% 1,249 0.9%
Pre-School Population (0-3) -386 -6.0% -0.3% -19 -0.3% -0.1%
Elementary School Population (4-13) -1,938 -10.1% -1.5% -1,353 -7.9% -1.1%
Secondary School Population (14-18) -50 -0.5% 0.0% -750 -7.5% -0.6%
Population Over 18 Years of Age 2,560 2.6% 1.8% 3,372 3.4% 1.8%
Females Aged 25-44 -1,279 -7.4% -1.0% -1,361 -8.5% -1.1%
Residential Dwellings/Population
Per Unit & Participation Rate
6
2001 2006 2011 2001 - 2006 2006-2011
Dwelling Unit Data Census Census Census Change % Change %
Total Occupied Dwellings:
49,506
51,034
52,962
1,528 3.1%
1,928 3.8%
Total Population/Dwelling:
2.67
2.60
2.53 -0.08 -2.9% -0.07 -2.7%
Elementary Pop./Dwelling:
0.39
0.34
0.30 -0.05 -12.8% -0.04 -11.2%
Secondary Pop./Dwelling:
0.20
0.20
0.18 -0.01 -3.5% -0.02 -10.9%
2001 2006 2011 Diff. 01-06 Diff. 06-11
Total Elementary Enrolment - Headcount 13,152 11,618 10,499 1,533- 1,119-
Total Elementary Aged Population 19,144 17,206 15,853 1,938- 1,353-
Elementary Participation Rates 68.7% 67.5% 66.2% -1.2% -1.3%
Historical Elementary Enrolment
7
HISTORICAL 2001/02 - 2006/07
2006/07 - 2011/12
GRADES Historical Historical Historical Absolute % Absolute %
(Headcount) 2001/2002 2006/2007 2011/2012 Change Change Change Change
JK 923 940 973 17 1.8% 34 3.6%
SK 1,175 1,042 1,004 -133 -11.3% -38 -3.6%
1 1,380 1,047 1,021 -334 -24.2% -26 -2.4%
6 1,435 1,256 1,043 -179 -12.4% -213 -17.0%
7 1,384 1,247 1,104 -137 -9.9% -143 -11.5%
8 1,312 1,240 1,211 -72 -5.5% -29 -2.3%
Total Enrolment 13,152 11,618 10,499 (1,534) -11.7% (1,119) -9.6%
GSR 1.19 1.24 1.12 0.05 4.1% -0.12 -9.4%
CAPACITY 14,149 14,149 13,458
UTILIZATION 93% 82% 78%
Projected Elementary Enrolment
8
PROJECTED ENROLMENT 2013/14 - 2027/28
Year 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15
2013 2017 2022 2027 Absolute %
/14 /18 /23 /28 Change Change
Total Existing 10,170 9,917 9,579 9,314
New Pupils 55 323 682 1,019
Total Pupils 10,226 10,240 10,261 10,333 107 1%
New Units 677 2,172 4,183 6,169
Average Yield 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18
CAPACITY 12,261 12,124 12,124 12,124
UTILIZATION 83% 84% 85% 85%
Avon Maitland District School Board - STRATFORD
.
$
$
$$
$
$
$
$
$
$$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Avon
RomeoHamlet
Bedford
Milverton
SprucedaleShakespeare
Upper Thames
Anne Hathaway
Central Perth
North Easthope
Downie Central
South Perth Centennial
Stratford Central P.S.
St. Marys D.C.&V.I. Elem
Stratford Northwestern P. S.
Little Falls Elementary School
Central Huron Area
North Perth Area
North East Huron Area
South Huron Area
West Perth Area
North West Huron Area
South Perth Area
Central Perth ES
Downie Central PS
Hamlet PS
Milverton PS
North Easthope PS
Romeo PS
Shakespeare PS
Sprucedale PS
Stratford Northwestern (Catchment)
Elementary Review Boundaries
$ Elementary Schools
Anne Hathaway
Avon PS
Bedford PS
Stratford Elementary Boundaries
Stratford Central (Catchment)
Stratford Elementary Boundaries
Avon Maitland District School Board - STRATFORD FRENCH IMMERSION
.
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Avon
Romeo
Hamlet
Bedford
Shakespeare
Anne Hathaway
Stratford Central P.S.
Stratford Northwestern P. S.
th Area
erth Area
$ Elementary Schools
Anne Hathaway
Avon PS
Bedford PS
Stratford Elementary Boundaries
Anne Hathaway (FI)
Central Perth ES
Downie Central PS
Hamlet PS
Milverton PS
North Easthope PS
Romeo PS
Shakespeare PS
Sprucedale PS
Bedford (FI)
Stratford PA Demographic Trends
9
2001 Share Of 2006 Share Of 2011 Share Of
Population Data Census Total Census Total Census Total
Total Population 41,854 42,352 42,712
Pre-School Population (0-3) 2,067 4.9% 1,869 4.4% 1,708 4.0%
Elementary School Population (4-13) 5,716 13.7% 5,367 12.7% 4,852 11.4%
Secondary School Population (14-18) 2,945 7.0% 2,887 6.8% 2,911 6.8%
Population Over 18 Years of Age 31,126 74.4% 32,229 76.1% 33,240 77.8%
Females Aged 25-44 5,912 14.1% 5,549 13.1% 5,087 11.9%
Absolute % Share Absolute % Share
Population Data Change Change Change Change Change Change
Total Population 498 1.2% 360 0.9%
Pre-School Population (0-3) -198 -9.6% -0.5% -161 -8.6% -0.4%
Elementary School Population (4-13) -349 -6.1% -1.0% -515 -9.6% -1.3%
Secondary School Population (14-18) -58 -2.0% -0.2% 24 0.8% 0.0%
Population Over 18 Years of Age 1,103 3.5% 1.7% 1,012 3.1% 1.7%
Females Aged 25-44 -363 -6.1% -1.0% -462 -8.3% -1.2%
2001-2006 2006-2011
Enrolment & Utilization By Area
10
Historical Historical Historical Current Year 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 % Change % Change
2001/ 2006/ 2011/ 2012/ 2013/ 2017/ 2022/ 2027/ 2001- 2012-
2002 2007 2012 2013 2014 2018 2023 2028 2011 2027
Total Exist 3,878 3,540 3,320 3,262 3,240 3,036 2,803 2,636
Total New 13 101 256 364
Total (Existing + New) 3,878 3,540 3,320 3,262 3,253 3,137 3,059 3,000 -14% -8%
New Units 78 199 681 1,353 1,969
Average Yield 0.17 0.18 0.21 0.20
Total Capacity 4175 4175 4175 4198 4175 4175 4175 4175
Total Utilization 93% 85% 80% 78% 78% 75% 73% 72%
Avon Maitland District School Board - CENTRAL HURON
.
$$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Seaforth
Clinton
Hullett
Colborne**
Holmesville**
Goderich PS GDCI - Elementary
Upper Thames
Huron Centennial
Bluewater Coast ES
$ Elementary Schools
Central Huron Elementary Boundaries
Clinton PS
Hullett Central PS
Huron Centennial PS
Seaforth PS
** School is, or will be closed
** Holmesville School: Enrolment split between Goderich, Clinton and Huron Centennial attendance boundaries
Elementary Review Boundaries
Central Huron Elementary Boundaries
Central Huron PA Demographic
Trends
11
2001 Share Of 2006 Share Of 2011 Share Of
Population Data Census Total Census Total Census Total
Total Population 17,267 16,517 16,961
Pre-School Population (0-3) 800 4.6% 667 4.0% 736 4.3%
Elementary School Population (4-13) 2,443 14.1% 2,174 13.2% 1,884 11.1%
Secondary School Population (14-18) 1,307 7.6% 1,280 7.7% 1,159 6.8%
Population Over 18 Years of Age 12,716 73.6% 12,396 75.0% 13,182 77.7%
Females Aged 25-44 2,099 12.2% 1,865 11.3% 1,734 10.2%
Absolute % Share Absolute % Share
Population Data Change Change Change Change Change Change
Total Population -750 -4.3% 444 2.7%
Pre-School Population (0-3) -133 -16.6% -0.6% 68 10.2% 0.3%
Elementary School Population (4-13) -269 -11.0% -1.0% -290 -13.3% -2.1%
Secondary School Population (14-18) -27 -2.1% 0.2% -121 -9.4% -0.9%
Population Over 18 Years of Age -320 -2.5% 1.4% 786 6.3% 2.7%
Females Aged 25-44 -234 -11.2% -0.9% -130 -7.0% -1.1%
2001-2006 2006-2011
Enrolment & Utilization By Area
12
Historical Historical Historical Current Year 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 % Change % Change
2001/ 2006/ 2011/ 2012/ 2013/ 2017/ 2022/ 2027/ 2001- 2012-
2002 2007 2012 2013 2014 2018 2023 2028 2011 2027
Total Exist 1,747 1,593 1,329 1,235 1,204 1,213 1,163 1,121
Total New 8 40 64 100
Total (Existing + New) 1,747 1,593 1,329 1,235 1,211 1,252 1,228 1,221 -24% -1%
New Units 33 67 209 402 601
Average Yield 0.23 0.23 0.18 0.18
Total Capacity 1857 1857 1857 1391 1391 1391 1391 1391
Total Utilization 94% 86% 72% 89% 87% 90% 88% 88%
Stratford
Central Huron Area
North Perth Area
North East Huron Area
South Huron Area
West Perth Area
North West Huron Area
South Perth Area
Avon Maitland District School Board - SOUTH PERTH
.
$
$
$
$
Downie Central
South Perth CentennialSt. Marys D.C.&V.I.
Little Falls Elementary School
South Perth Centennial ES Attendance Boundary
$ Elementary Schools
South Perth Elementary Boundaries
Little Falls AND St. Mary's DVCI (shared boundary)
South Perth Elementary Boundaries
Elementary Review Boundaries
South Perth PA Demographic
Trends
13
2001 Share Of 2006 Share Of 2011 Share Of
Population Data Census Total Census Total Census Total
Total Population 8,351 8,548 8,471
Pre-School Population (0-3) 363 4.4% 411 4.8% 323 3.8%
Elementary School Population (4-13) 1,301 15.6% 1,117 13.1% 963 11.4%
Secondary School Population (14-18) 618 7.4% 694 8.1% 571 6.7%
Population Over 18 Years of Age 6,068 72.7% 6,325 74.0% 6,614 78.1%
Females Aged 25-44 1,137 13.6% 1,009 11.8% 906 10.7%
Absolute % Share Absolute % Share
Population Data Change Change Change Change Change Change
Total Population 197 2.4% -77 -0.9%
Pre-School Population (0-3) 48 13.1% 0.5% -88 -21.5% -1.0%
Elementary School Population (4-13) -184 -14.2% -2.5% -154 -13.8% -1.7%
Secondary School Population (14-18) 76 12.3% 0.7% -123 -17.7% -1.4%
Population Over 18 Years of Age 258 4.2% 1.3% 289 4.6% 4.1%
Females Aged 25-44 -128 -11.2% -1.8% -104 -10.3% -1.1%
2001-2006 2006-2011
Enrolment & Utilization By Area
14
Historical Historical Historical Current Year 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 % Change % Change
2001/ 2006/ 2011/ 2012/ 2013/ 2017/ 2022/ 2027/ 2001- 2012-
2002 2007 2012 2013 2014 2018 2023 2028 2011 2027
Total Exist 915 785 769 783 788 775 748 720
Total New 7 41 77 128
Total (Existing + New) 915 785 769 783 795 816 825 848 -16% 8%
New Units 42 88 274 507 739
Average Yield 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.18
Total Capacity 1039 1039 891 891 891 891 891 891
Total Utilization 88% 76% 86% 88% 89% 92% 93% 95%
Avon Maitland District School Board - WEST PERTH
.
$
$
$
$
Seaforth
H
Upper Thames
Central Perth
Downie Central
Stratford
Central Huron Area
North Perth Area
North East Huron Area
South Huron Area
West Perth Area
North West Huron Area
South Perth Area
$ Elementary Schools
West Perth Elementary Boundaries
Upper Thames
West Perth Elementary Boundary
Elementary Review Boundaries
West Perth PA Demographic Trends
15
2001 Share Of 2006 Share Of 2011 Share Of
Population Data Census Total Census Total Census Total
Total Population 8,874 8,630 8,717
Pre-School Population (0-3) 464 5.2% 399 4.6% 470 5.4%
Elementary School Population (4-13) 1,434 16.2% 1,222 14.2% 1,198 13.7%
Secondary School Population (14-18) 749 8.4% 742 8.6% 617 7.1%
Population Over 18 Years of Age 6,227 70.2% 6,267 72.6% 6,431 73.8%
Females Aged 25-44 1,203 13.6% 1,066 12.4% 1,004 11.5%
Absolute % Share Absolute % Share
Population Data Change Change Change Change Change Change
Total Population -244 -2.8% 87 1.0%
Pre-School Population (0-3) -65 -14.1% -0.6% 72 17.9% 0.8%
Elementary School Population (4-13) -212 -14.8% -2.0% -24 -1.9% -0.4%
Secondary School Population (14-18) -7 -0.9% 0.2% -125 -16.8% -1.5%
Population Over 18 Years of Age 40 0.6% 2.4% 164 2.6% 1.2%
Females Aged 25-44 -137 -11.4% -1.2% -62 -5.8% -0.8%
2001-2006 2006-2011
Enrolment & Utilization By Area
16
Historical Historical Historical Current Year 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 % Change % Change
2001/ 2006/ 2011/ 2012/ 2013/ 2017/ 2022/ 2027/ 2001- 2012-
2002 2007 2012 2013 2014 2018 2023 2028 2011 2027
Total Exist 948 804 802 799 790 793 797 808
Total New 5 30 59 92
Total (Existing + New) 948 804 802 799 795 822 856 899 -15% 13%
New Units 20 40 135 275 425
Average Yield 0.27 0.27 0.24 0.23
Total Capacity 1122 1122 737 737 737 737 737 737
Total Utilization 84% 72% 109% 108% 108% 112% 116% 122%
Avon Maitland District School Board - NORTH WEST HURON
.
$$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Hullett
Colborne**
Brookside
Holmesville**
Goderich PSGDCI - Elementary
FE Madill Elementary SchoolWingham
Turnberry Central PS
Stratford
Central Huron Area
North Perth Area
North East Huron Area
South Huron Area
West Perth Area
North West Huron Area
South Perth Area
GDCI and Goderich Elementary PS (shared boundary)
$ Elementary Schools
North West Huron Elementary Boundaries
Brookside PS
** School is, or will be closed
** Colborne School: Enrolment split between Brookside, GDCI, and Goderich Elementary attendance boundaries
Elementary Review Boundaries
North West Huron Elementary Boundaries
NW Huron PA Demographic Trends
17
2001 Share Of 2006 Share Of 2011 Share Of
Population Data Census Total Census Total Census Total
Total Population 13,301 13,816 14,043
Pre-School Population (0-3) 568 4.3% 462 3.3% 489 3.5%
Elementary School Population (4-13) 1,763 13.3% 1,664 12.0% 1,522 10.8%
Secondary School Population (14-18) 998 7.5% 1,027 7.4% 924 6.6%
Population Over 18 Years of Age 9,972 75.0% 10,662 77.2% 11,109 79.1%
Females Aged 25-44 1,588 11.9% 1,521 11.0% 1,345 9.6%
Absolute % Share Absolute % Share
Population Data Change Change Change Change Change Change
Total Population 515 3.9% 227 1.6%
Pre-School Population (0-3) -105 -18.5% -0.9% 26 5.7% 0.1%
Elementary School Population (4-13) -99 -5.6% -1.2% -142 -8.6% -1.2%
Secondary School Population (14-18) 29 2.9% -0.1% -104 -10.1% -0.9%
Population Over 18 Years of Age 690 6.9% 2.2% 447 4.2% 1.9%
Females Aged 25-44 -67 -4.2% -0.9% -176 -11.6% -1.4%
2001-2006 2006-2011
Enrolment & Utilization By Area
18
Historical Historical Historical Current Year 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 % Change % Change
2001/ 2006/ 2011/ 2012/ 2013/ 2017/ 2022/ 2027/ 2001- 2012-
2002 2007 2012 2013 2014 2018 2023 2028 2011 2027
Total Exist 1,097 967 852 837 844 789 759 750
Total New 5 24 47 71
Total (Existing + New) 1,097 967 852 837 849 812 805 821 -22% -2%
New Units 28 55 172 331 494
Average Yield 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.15
Total Capacity 1343 1343 1185 1185 981 981 981 981
Total Utilization 82% 72% 72% 71% 87% 83% 82% 84%
Avon Maitland District School Board - NORTH PERTH
.
$
$
$
$
$
$$
$
$
$
$
Milverton
hoolWingham PS
ntral PS
Wallace
Milverton
Elma Township
Listowel Central
Listowel Eastdale
Mornington Central
North Woods (Previously Grey Central)
Turnberry Central PS (Maitland River)
$ Elementary Schools
North Perth Elementary Boundaries
North Woods (Previously Grey Central)
Listowel Eastdale PS
Mornington Central PS
Elma Township PS
Wallace PS
New North Perth Boundary
Listowel Central PS
North Perth Elementary Boundaries
Elementary Review Boundaries
North Perth PA Demographic Trends
19
2001 Share Of 2006 Share Of 2011 Share Of
Population Data Census Total Census Total Census Total
Total Population 17,231 17,172 17,688
Pre-School Population (0-3) 971 5.6% 975 5.7% 1,078 6.1%
Elementary School Population (4-13) 2,713 15.7% 2,493 14.5% 2,518 14.2%
Secondary School Population (14-18) 1,479 8.6% 1,390 8.1% 1,340 7.6%
Population Over 18 Years of Age 12,069 70.0% 12,314 71.7% 12,752 72.1%
Females Aged 25-44 2,331 13.5% 2,144 12.5% 2,080 11.8%
Absolute % Share Absolute % Share
Population Data Change Change Change Change Change Change
Total Population -59 -0.3% 516 3.0%
Pre-School Population (0-3) 4 0.4% 0.0% 103 10.6% 0.4%
Elementary School Population (4-13) -220 -8.1% -1.2% 25 1.0% -0.3%
Secondary School Population (14-18) -88 -6.0% -0.5% -50 -3.6% -0.5%
Population Over 18 Years of Age 245 2.0% 1.7% 438 3.6% 0.4%
Females Aged 25-44 -188 -8.0% -1.0% -64 -3.0% -0.7%
2001-2006 2006-2011
Enrolment & Utilization By Area
20
Historical Historical Historical Current Year 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 % Change % Change
2001/ 2006/ 2011/ 2012/ 2013/ 2017/ 2022/ 2027/ 2001- 2012-
2002 2007 2012 2013 2014 2018 2023 2028 2011 2027
Total Exist 1,878 1,731 1,569 1,597 1,529 1,449 1,422 1,432
Total New 11 54 110 156
Total (Existing + New) 1,878 1,731 1,569 1,597 1,540 1,503 1,532 1,588 -16% -1%
New Units 65 131 394 725 1,057
Average Yield 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.16
Total Capacity 1852 1852 1852 1852 1852 1715 1715 1715
Total Utilization 101% 93% 85% 86% 83% 88% 89% 93%
Avon Maitland District School Board - SOUTH HURON
.
$
$
$
$$
Stephen Central
Huron Centennial
Bluewater Coast ES
Exeter Elementary School
**South Huron Elementary (7/8) School (SHDHS)
$ Elementary Schools
Exeter PS
Stephen Central PS
**SHDHS Boundary (South Huron 7 & 8 Grades):Includes all 3 elementary boundaries shown
Bluewater Coast (Previously Hensall)
South Huron Elementary Boundaries
South Huron Elementary Boundary
Elementary Review Boundaries
South Huron PA Demographic
Trends
21
2001 Share Of 2006 Share Of 2011 Share Of
Population Data Census Total Census Total Census Total
Total Population 14,263 14,196 14,130
Pre-School Population (0-3) 559 3.9% 575 4.1% 543 3.8%
Elementary School Population (4-13) 1,953 13.7% 1,627 11.5% 1,416 10.0%
Secondary School Population (14-18) 1,048 7.3% 1,004 7.1% 949 6.7%
Population Over 18 Years of Age 10,703 75.0% 10,990 77.4% 11,222 79.4%
Females Aged 25-44 1,771 12.4% 1,591 11.2% 1,378 9.8%
Absolute % Share Absolute % Share
Population Data Change Change Change Change Change Change
Total Population -67 -0.5% -66 -0.5%
Pre-School Population (0-3) 16 2.9% 0.1% -33 -5.7% -0.2%
Elementary School Population (4-13) -326 -16.7% -2.2% -211 -13.0% -1.4%
Secondary School Population (14-18) -43 -4.1% -0.3% -55 -5.5% -0.4%
Population Over 18 Years of Age 286 2.7% 2.4% 232 2.1% 2.0%
Females Aged 25-44 -180 -10.2% -1.2% -213 -13.4% -1.5%
2001-2006 2006-2011
Enrolment & Utilization By Area
22
Historical Historical Historical Current Year 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 % Change % Change
2001/ 2006/ 2011/ 2012/ 2013/ 2017/ 2022/ 2027/ 2001- 2012-
2002 2007 2012 2013 2014 2018 2023 2028 2011 2027
Total Exist 1,366 1,066 851 814 807 840 780 761
Total New 3 16 35 53
Total (Existing + New) 1,366 1,066 851 814 810 856 815 814 -38% 0%
New Units 27 53 168 323 484
Average Yield 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12
Total Capacity 1376 1376 1376 1186 1186 1186 1186 1186
Total Utilization 99% 77% 62% 69% 68% 72% 69% 69%
Avon Maitland District School Board - NORTH EAST HURON
.$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$$
$Howick PS
Hullett
okside
FE Madill Elementary SchoolWingham PS
Turnberry Central PS
Elma Township
Listowel Central
Listowe
North Woods (Previously Grey Central)
$ Elementary Schools
North East Huron Elementary Boundaries
FE Madill 7/8 Attendance Boundary and Maitland River
Howick Central PS Attendance Boundary
Future Boundary for Turnberry & Wingham (Maitland River) Campus'
Elementary Review Boundaries
North East Huron Elementary Boundaries
NE Huron PA Demographic Trends
23
2001 Share Of 2006 Share Of 2011 Share Of
Population Data Census Total Census Total Census Total
Total Population 11,179 11,275 11,033
Pre-School Population (0-3) 606 5.4% 654 5.8% 647 5.9%
Elementary School Population (4-13) 1,822 16.3% 1,542 13.7% 1,500 13.6%
Secondary School Population (14-18) 924 8.3% 993 8.8% 797 7.2%
Population Over 18 Years of Age 7,827 70.0% 8,086 71.7% 8,090 73.3%
Females Aged 25-44 1,316 11.8% 1,334 11.8% 1,184 10.7%
Absolute % Share Absolute % Share
Population Data Change Change Change Change Change Change
Total Population 96 0.9% -242 -2.1%
Pre-School Population (0-3) 48 7.9% 0.4% -7 -1.1% 0.1%
Elementary School Population (4-13) -280 -15.3% -2.6% -43 -2.8% -0.1%
Secondary School Population (14-18) 68 7.4% 0.5% -196 -19.8% -1.6%
Population Over 18 Years of Age 259 3.3% 1.7% 4 0.0% 1.6%
Females Aged 25-44 18 1.3% 0.1% -150 -11.2% -1.1%
2001-2006 2006-2011
Enrolment & Utilization By Area
24
Historical Historical Historical Current Year 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 % Change % Change
2001/ 2006/ 2011/ 2012/ 2013/ 2017/ 2022/ 2027/ 2001- 2012-
2002 2007 2012 2013 2014 2018 2023 2028 2011 2027
Total Exist 1,324 1,133 1,007 942 970 1,023 1,107 1,087
Total New 3 18 34 54
Total (Existing + New) 1,324 1,133 1,007 942 973 1,040 1,142 1,141 -24% 21%
New Units 22 45 140 268 400
Average Yield 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.15
Total Capacity 1385 1385 1385 1092 1048 1048 1048 1048
Total Utilization 96% 82% 73% 86% 93% 99% 109% 109%
Historical Secondary Enrolment
25
GRADES Historical Historical Historical Absolute % Absolute %
2001/2002 2006/2007 2011/2012 Change Change Change Change
Grade 9 1,598 1,469 1,290 -129 -8.1% -179 -12.2%
Total Enrolment 7,188 6,626 6,356 -562 -7.8% -270 -4.1%
CAPACITY
8,256 87% 80% 77%
UTILIZATION
HISTORICAL
2001/02 - 2006/07 -
Projected Secondary Enrolment
26
Year 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15
2013 2017 2022 2027 Absolute %
/14 /18 /23 /28 Change Change
Total Existing 5,868 5,068 5,009 4,831
New Pupils 26 198 293 487
Total Pupils 5,894 5,266 5,302 5,318 -576 -10%New Units 677 2,172 4,183 6,169
Average Yield 0.08 0.11 0.08 0.08
CAPACITY
7,841 75% 67% 68% 68%
2013/14 - 2027/28
UTILIZATION
PROJECTED ENROLMENT
Secondary By School
27
On-The- Historical Current Year 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15
Ground 2007/ 2012/ 2013/ 2017/ 2022/ 2027/
Capacity 2008 2013 2014 2018 2023 2028
South Huron District High School 870.0 806 657 588 406 526 469
Mitchell District High School 516.0 425 374 371 346 363 377
St. Marys District Collegiate and Vocational Institute 672.0 547 470 461 454 488 483
Stratford Central Secondary School 789.0 686 812 813 755 654 698
Stratford Northwestern Secondary School 1,155.0 963 947 886 841 830 774
Central Huron Secondary School 921.0 587 610 589 491 509 519
F.E. Madill Secondary School 1,041.0 921 773 688 587 571 615
Goderich District Collegiate Institute 684.0 594 572 551 468 446 446
Listowel District Secondary School 1,193.0 1,114 976 947 921 913 939
7,841 6,643 6,191 5,894 5,267 5,301 5,320
On-The- Historical Current Year 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15
Ground 2007/ 2012/ 2013/ 2017/ 2022/ 2027/
Capacity 2008 2013 2014 2018 2023 2028
South Huron District High School 870.0 93% 76% 68% 47% 60% 54%
Mitchell District High School 516.0 82% 72% 72% 67% 70% 73%
St. Marys District Collegiate and Vocational Institute 672.0 81% 70% 69% 68% 73% 72%
Stratford Central Secondary School 789.0 87% 103% 103% 96% 83% 88%
Stratford Northwestern Secondary School 1,155.0 83% 82% 77% 73% 72% 67%
Central Huron Secondary School 921.0 64% 66% 64% 53% 55% 56%
F.E. Madill Secondary School 1,041.0 88% 74% 66% 56% 55% 59%
Goderich District Collegiate Institute 684.0 87% 84% 81% 68% 65% 65%
Listowel District Secondary School 1,193.0 93% 82% 79% 77% 77% 79%
7,841 85% 79% 75% 67% 68% 68%
Projected Enrolment
TOTAL PUPILS (Existing + New)
Projected Utilization
TOTAL PUPILS (Existing + New)