democratic gains and challenges in europe - one step
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InternationalIDEA@int_IDEAwww.idea.int International IDEA
The Global State of
Democracy 2019
Addressing the Ills,
Reviving the Promise
Democratic Gains and Challenges in Europe - One Step Forward Two Steps Back?
Presentation to World Bank,
4 March 2020
A global health check of democracy
Global democracy landscape Chapter 1
Africa and the Middle EastChapter 2
Asia and the Pacific Chapter 3
The Americas Chapter 4
Europe Chapter 5
Global State of Democracy Report
Global State of Democracy
(GSoD) Framework & Indices
Democratic Performance (score 0-1)
High>0.70
Mid-Range>=0.40 =<0.70
Low<0.40
GSoD - Regime Classification
Democracy Hybrid RegimeNon-democratic
regime
Representative Government
≥ 0.35
Representative Government < 0.35
Minimally competitive multi-party elections
Not minimally competitive elections
Global State of
Democracy Indices
& the Sustainable
Development GOals
www.idea.int/gsod-indices
www.govdata360.worldbank.org
GSoD Indices – Relevance to World BankGOVERNANCE & POLITICAL ECONOMY✓ Governance and Political Economy
Agenda✓ Other sectors – governance as a
cross-cutting issue
HUMAN RIGHTS✓ Human Rights Trust Fund
CIVIC SPACE✓ Global Partnership for Social
Accountability
KEY FINDINGS ON
EUROPE
Europe: 4 sub-regions and 42 countries
East – Central Europe
Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czechia
Estonia
Hungary
Kosovo
Latvia
Lithuania
North Macedonia
Poland
Romania
Serbia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Post-Soviet Europe
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Georgia
Moldova
Russia
Ukraine
North and West Europe
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Ireland
Netherlands
Norway
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
South Europe
Cyprus
Greece
Israel
Italy
Portugal
Spain
Turkey
#1 Democratic expansion in Europe since 1990OPPORTUNITIES
# 2
High
performing
region on
democratic
governance
OPPORTUNITIES
#2 Europe outperforms most other regions on all attributes
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
North America Europe Latin Americaand the
Caribbean
Asia and thePacific
Africa Middle East &Iran
Representative Government
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
North America Europe Latin Americaand the
Caribbean
Asia and thePacific
Africa Middle East &Iran
Fundamental Rights
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
North America Europe Latin Americaand the
Caribbean
Africa Asia and thePacific
Middle East &Iran
Checks on Government
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
North America Europe Latin Americaand the
Caribbean
Asia and thePacific
Africa Middle East &Iran
Impartial Administration
OPPORTUNITIES
#2 European high-income countries outperform other high-income countries on Social Group and Gender Equality
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
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20
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20
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20
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20
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20
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20
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20
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20
18
LAC United States Asia
Europe Confidence interval
High Income: World Bank threshold of >= 12376 US-$ gross national income per capita (2018)
Social Group Equality in High-Income Economies
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
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20
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20
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20
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20
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20
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20
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20
18
LAC United States Asia
Europe Confidence interval
High Income: World Bank threshold of >= 12376 US-$ gross national income per capita (2018)
Gender Equality in High-Income Economies
OPPORTUNITIES
#1 Democratic governance divide between Western and Eastern Europe
CHALLENGES
#2
Democratic
governance decline
in Europe since
2009
CHALLENGES
#2 More than half of
countries in Europe
suffer from
democratic
governance
declines
52%
36%
17%0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Countries withgovernance
declines
Countries withdeclines on 1-2
indicators
Countries withmore than 2
indicator declines
% of countries with governance declines 2013-2018
CHALLENGES
#3
6 of 10
democratically
backsliding
countries worldwide
are in Central
Eastern Europe &
Balkans
Moderate
democratic
backslidin
g
Severe
democratic
backsliding
Severe democratic backsliding
resulting in
democratic breakdown
Partial democratic
breakdown
(from democracy to
hybrid regime)
Full democratic
breakdown
(from democracy to
non-democracy)
India
(2006-2018)
Philippines
(2015-2018)
Ukraine
(2010 –
2018)
Hungary
(2006-2018)
Poland
(2013-2018)
Romania
(2017-2018)
Serbia
(2010-2018)
Turkey
(2008 -2018)
Nicaragua
(2006-2018)
Pakistan
(2014 – 2018)
Venezuela
(1999-2010,
regressed to a
hybrid regime in
2008)
Venezuela
(regressed from a
hybrid to a non-
democracy in 2017)
CHALLENGES
Turkey
Democratic governance performance worse now than 30 years ago
1990 2018
CHALLENGES
✓Backsliding started in 2010
✓Most democraticgovernance declines in the world since 2013
✓Levels of impartialadministration, checks on government & civil societyparticipation lower nowthan 30 years ago
Democratic Governance Declines in HungaryCHALLENGES
✓ Longest backsliding process in Europe –since 2009
✓ From high on 4/5 attributes in 2006 to 1 in 2018
✓ Constitutional revisions to undercut judicialindependence & electoral system enabledby supermajority in parliament
✓ Declines concentrated in media integrityand clean elections but also judicialindependence, civil liberties and effectiveparliament
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
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09
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Clean Elections Civil Liberties
Checks on Government Predictable Enforcement
Local Democracy
Poland
Democratic Governance Declines in PolandCHALLENGES
✓Backsliding since 2015
✓Similar pattern to Hungary: control of judiciary and media, clampdown on civil society, but not yet in electoral arena
✓Declines most severe in judicial independence
- Fighting corruption
- Ensuring judicial
independence
#4
Insufficient
progress in two
areas
CHALLENGES
Democratic advances still observed, high democratic performance region
Regional disparities in democratic governance -Post Soviet Europe poorest democratic governance performance lagging behind rest of region
Europe has ighest number of severe democratic backsliders
East-Central Europe is greatest cause of democratic backsliding with deteriorating checks on government and declines in civil liberties
Insufficient progress in fighting corruption, and guaranteeing judicial independence
KEY FINDINGS
1
2
3
4
5
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