demanda ventanilla

INFORME FINAL Ampliación y Mejoramiento del Sistema de Agua Potable y Alcantarillado para el Macro Proyecto Pachacutec del Distrito de Ventanilla

Consorcio Macro Proyecto Ingenieros

PROYECCION DE LA DEMANDA DE AGUA POTABLE0.78616418155 TOTAL

POBLACION

COBERTURA (%) CONEXIONES DE AGUA POTABLE CONSUMO DE AGUA (l/día) DEMANDA AGUA

CONEX.CONEXIONES DOMESTICO CONEXIONES SOCIALES TOTAL CONEXIONES

Qp (t/seg) Qp (m3/año)

C/MED. S/MED. TOTAL C/MED. S/MED. TOTAL C/MED. S/MED. TOTAL C/MED. S/MED. TOTAL C/MED. S/MED. TOTAL C/MED. S/MED. TOTAL

2,008 Base 147,119 10.4% 89.6% 15,369 3,423 0.00% 3,423 0 3,423 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3,423 0 3,423 2,183,874 0 0 0 0 2,183,874 31.6 996,538 41.1 56.9 930.5

2,009 A 159,403 10.2% 89.8% 16,202 3,609 0.00% 3,609 0 3,609 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3,609 0 3,609 2,302,542 0 0 0 0 2,302,542 33.3 1,050,780 43.3 60.0 981.0

2,010 0 172,714 9.7% 90.3% 16,726 3,725 0.00% 3,725 0 3,725 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3,725 0 3,725 2,376,550 0 0 0 0 2,376,550 34.4 1,084,523 44.7 61.9 1,013.4

2,011 1 187,135 100.0% 0% 187,135 41,677 25.00% 41,677 0 41,677 41 0 41 40 0 40 40 0 40 40 0 40 41,838 0 41,838 26,589,926 71,600 159,547 266,000 84,000 27,171,072 393.10 12,396,802 511.03 707.58 12,081

2,012 2 202,761 100.0% 0% 202,761 45,160 25.00% 45,160 0 45,160 41 0 41 40 0 40 41 0 41 40 0 40 45,322 0 45,322 28,812,080 71,600 159,547 566,000 84,000 29,693,226 429.60 13,547,866 558.48 773.28 13,158

2,013 3 207,648 100.0% 0% 207,648 46,248 25.00% 46,248 0 46,248 41 0 41 40 0 40 41 0 41 40 0 40 46,410 0 46,410 29,506,224 71,600 159,547 566,000 84,000 30,387,370 439.62 13,863,856 571.51 791.32 13,452

2,014 4 212,669 100.0% 0% 212,669 47,366 25.00% 47,366 0 47,366 41 0 41 40 0 40 41 0 41 40 0 40 47,528 0 47,528 30,219,508 71,600 159,547 566,000 84,000 31,100,654 449.96 14,189,939 584.95 809.93 13,756

2,015 5 217,829 100.0% 0% 217,829 48,514 25.00% 48,514 0 48,514 41 0 41 40 0 40 41 0 41 40 0 40 48,676 0 48,676 30,951,932 71,600 159,547 566,000 84,000 31,833,078 460.55 14,523,905 598.72 828.99 14,069

2,016 6 223,131 100.0% 0% 223,131 49,695 25.00% 49,695 0 49,695 49 0 49 48 0 48 49 0 49 48 0 48 49,889 0 49,889 31,705,410 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 32,702,436 473.13 14,920,628 615.07 851.63 14,440

2,017 7 228,583 100.0% 0% 228,583 50,909 25.00% 50,909 0 50,909 49 0 49 48 0 48 49 0 49 48 0 48 51,103 0 51,103 32,479,942 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 33,476,968 484.32 15,273,516 629.62 871.78 14,769

2,018 8 234,190 100.0% 0% 234,190 52,157 25.00% 52,157 0 52,157 49 0 49 48 0 48 49 0 49 48 0 48 52,351 0 52,351 33,276,166 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 34,273,192 495.86 15,637,441 644.62 892.55 15,108

2,019 9 239,957 100.0% 0% 239,957 53,443 25.00% 53,443 0 53,443 49 0 49 48 0 48 49 0 49 48 0 48 53,637 0 53,637 34,096,634 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 35,093,660 507.74 16,012,089 660.06 913.93 15,458

2,020 10 245,892 100.0% 0% 245,892 54,765 25.00% 54,765 0 54,765 49 0 49 48 0 48 49 0 49 48 0 48 54,959 0 54,959 34,940,070 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 35,937,096 519.92 16,396,197 675.90 935.86 15,819

2,021 11 252,001 100.0% 0% 252,001 56,125 25.00% 56,125 0 56,125 49 0 49 48 0 48 49 0 49 48 0 48 56,319 0 56,319 35,807,750 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 36,804,776 532.48 16,792,289 692.22 958.46 16,190

2,022 12 258,290 100.0% 0% 258,290 57,526 25.00% 57,526 0 57,526 49 0 49 48 0 48 49 0 49 48 0 48 57,720 0 57,720 36,701,588 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 37,698,614 545.40 17,199,734 709.02 981.72 16,569

2,023 13 264,769 100.0% 0% 264,769 58,970 25.00% 58,970 0 58,970 49 0 49 48 0 48 49 0 49 48 0 48 59,164 0 59,164 37,622,860 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 38,619,886 558.74 17,620,425 726.36 1,005.73 16,963

2,024 14 271,445 100.0% 0% 271,445 60,457 25.00% 60,457 0 60,457 49 0 49 48 0 48 49 0 49 48 0 48 60,651 0 60,651 38,571,566 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 39,568,592 572.45 18,052,783 744.19 1,030.41 17,365

2,025 15 278,326 100.0% 0% 278,326 61,988 25.00% 61,988 0 61,988 57 0 57 56 0 56 57 0 57 56 0 56 62,214 0 62,214 39,548,344 99,541 223,365 672,400 117,600 40,661,250 588.28 18,551,998 764.76 1,058.90 17,830

2,026 16 285,422 100.0% 0% 285,422 63,569 25.00% 63,569 0 63,569 57 0 57 56 0 56 57 0 57 56 0 56 63,795 0 63,795 40,557,022 99,541 223,365 672,400 117,600 41,669,928 602.87 19,012,108 783.73 1,085.17 18,263

2,027 17 292,742 100.0% 0% 292,742 65,199 25.00% 65,199 0 65,199 57 0 57 56 0 56 57 0 57 56 0 56 65,425 0 65,425 41,596,962 99,541 223,365 672,400 117,600 42,709,868 617.91 19,486,410 803.28 1,112.24 18,704

2,028 18 300,297 100.0% 0% 300,297 66,880 25.00% 66,880 0 66,880 57 0 57 56 0 56 57 0 57 56 0 56 67,106 0 67,106 42,669,440 99,541 223,365 672,400 117,600 43,782,346 633.42 19,975,533 823.45 1,140.16 19,161

2,029 19 308,098 100.0% 0% 308,098 68,618 25.00% 68,618 0 68,618 57 0 57 56 0 56 57 0 57 56 0 56 68,844 0 68,844 43,778,284 99,541 223,365 672,400 117,600 44,891,190 649.47 20,481,686 844.31 1,169.05 19,637

2,030 20 316,157 100.0% 0% 316,157 70,414 25.00% 70,414 0 70,414 57 0 57 56 0 56 57 0 57 56 0 56 70,640 0 70,640 44,924,132 99,541 223,365 672,400 117,600 46,037,038 666.04 21,004,237 865.85 1,198.87 20,124(* ) OTROS MEDIOS se refiere a abastecimientopor acarreo o por cualquier medio en el que no se extraiga agua potable del sistema

AÑO POBLACION SERVIDA

(hab)

VIVIENDAS SERVIDAS (unidades)

PERDIDAS DE AGUA POTABLE

(%)

Volumen Requerido

(m3)OTROS

MEDIOS (*)

CONEXIONES COMERCIALES

CONEXIONES INDUSTRIALES

CONEXIONES ESTATALES Y UNIVERSIDAD CONSUMO

DOMESTICO CONSUMO

COMERCIALCONSUMO

INDUSTRIAL

CONSUMO ESTATAL Y

UNIV

CONSUMO SOCIAL

CONSUMO TOTAL

CONECTADO

Qmd (lt/seg)

Qmh (lt/seg)



Cuadro de Oferta Demanda Volumen de AlmacenamientoTOTAL

Año

Demanda Total QP Volumen Demanda

(m3/año) (lt/seg)

2,008 Base 996,538 31.60 41.08 56.88 682 0 0 682 9600 8918

2,009 A 1,050,780 33.32 43.32 59.98 719 0 0 719 9600 8881

2,010 0 1,084,523 34.39 44.71 61.90 743 270 0 1013 9600 8587

2,011 1 12,396,802 393.10 511.03 707.58 8490 3091 500 12081 9600 -2481

2,012 2 13,547,866 429.60 558.48 773.28 9280 3378 500 13158 9600 -3558

2,013 3 13,863,856 439.62 571.51 791.32 9496 3456 500 13452 9600 -3852

2,014 4 14,189,939 449.96 584.95 809.93 9718 3538 500 13756 9600 -4156

2,015 5 14,523,905 460.55 598.72 828.99 9948 3621 500 14069 9600 -4469

2,016 6 14,920,628 473.13 615.07 851.63 10220 3720 500 14440 9600 -4840

2,017 7 15,273,516 484.32 629.62 871.78 10461 3808 500 14769 9600 -5169

2,018 8 15,637,441 495.86 644.62 892.55 10709 3899 500 15108 9600 -5508

2,019 9 16,012,089 507.74 660.06 913.93 10966 3992 500 15458 9600 -5858

2,020 10 16,396,197 519.92 675.90 935.86 11231 4088 500 15819 9600 -6219

2,021 11 16,792,289 532.48 692.22 958.46 11503 4187 500 16190 9600 -6590

2,022 12 17,199,734 545.40 709.02 981.72 11781 4288 500 16569 9600 -6969

2,023 13 17,620,425 558.74 726.36 1005.73 12070 4393 500 16963 9600 -7363

2,024 14 18,052,783 572.45 744.19 1030.41 12364 4501 500 17365 9600 -7765

2,025 15 18,551,998 588.28 764.76 1058.90 12705 4625 500 17830 9600 -8230

2,026 16 19,012,108 602.87 783.73 1085.17 13023 4740 500 18263 9600 -8663

2,027 17 19,486,410 617.91 803.28 1112.24 13346 4858 500 18704 9600 -9104

2,028 18 19,975,533 633.42 823.45 1140.16 13681 4980 500 19161 9600 -9561

2,029 19 20,481,686 649.47 844.31 1169.05 14031 5106 500 19637 9600 -10037

2,030 20 21,004,237 666.04 865.85 1198.87 14387 5237 500 20124 9600 -10524

QMD (lt/seg)

QMH (lt/seg)

Volumen Oferta (m3)

Volumen Requerido

(m3)Vol. Reg. (m3)

Vol. Res. (m3)

Vol. Contra Incen. (m3)

Vol. Total (m3)

Estudio de Factibilidad “Mejoramiento y Ampliación del Sistema de Agua Potable y Alcantarillado de la Ciudad de Jauja”

Consorcio V B Febrero - 2007

Cuadro N° 7

Caudal Promedio Desagüe ( Qpd lps ) por Area de Drenaje

A 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

AD-01 107.29 7.88 7.97 8.43 9.07 9.73 10.43 11.12 11.24 11.37 11.50

394.17 20.61 20.72 18.87 18.98 19.08 19.18 19.31 19.48 19.59 19.70

AD-04 144.76 2.48 2.53 2.31 2.51 2.71 2.92 3.14 3.19 3.24 3.29

TOTAL 646.21 30.97 31.22 29.61 30.56 31.52 32.53 33.57 33.92 34.20 34.49

Area Drenaje

Area (Ha)

AD-02 y AD-03



Cuadro N° 7

Caudal Promedio Desagüe ( Qpd lps ) por Area de Drenaje

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

11.64 11.83 11.96 12.09 12.22 12.38 12.51 12.64 12.77 12.90 13.03

19.80 19.94 20.05 20.15 20.26 20.38 20.52 20.62 20.74 20.85 20.99

3.34 3.39 3.44 3.49 3.54 3.59 3.64 3.69 3.74 3.79 3.84

34.78 35.16 35.45 35.73 36.02 36.35 36.67 36.96 37.25 37.54 37.86



Cuadro N° 5

Cuadro de Demanda de Volumen de Almacenamiento por Sectores

Sector Datos / Año Base 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Sector 01 Area (Ha) 105.99 105.99 105.99 105.99 105.99 105.99 105.99 105.99 105.99

RP-01 Población (hab) 10,776 10,928 11,079 11,230 11,381 11,532 11,683 11,835 11,986

Qp (lps) 16.50 16.83 17.03 15.83 16.38 16.95 17.56 18.15 18.74

Qmd (lps) 21.45 21.88 22.14 20.58 21.29 22.04 22.83 23.60 24.36

Qmh (lps) 33.00 33.66 34.06 31.66 32.76 33.90 35.12 36.30 37.48

Volumen (m3) 406 414 418 392 404 416 429 442 455

Sector 02 y 03 Area (Ha) 478.48 478.48 478.48 478.48 478.48 478.48 478.48 478.48 478.48

RE-01 Población (hab) 18,192 18,299 18,406 18,513 18,621 18,730 18,840 18,950 19,061

Qp (lps) 43.37 43.54 43.78 32.91 33.09 33.28 33.46 33.69 33.98

Qmd (lps) 56.38 56.60 56.91 42.78 43.02 43.26 43.50 43.80 44.17

Qmh (lps) 86.74 87.08 87.56 65.82 66.18 66.56 66.92 67.38 67.96

Volumen (m3) 987 990 996 761 765 769 773 778 784

Sector 04 Area (Ha) 150.19 150.19 150.19 150.19 150.19 150.19 150.19 150.19 150.19

RE-02 Población (hab) 3,122 3,180 3,239 3,297 3,355 3,413 3,472 3,530 3,588

Qp (lps) 5.28 5.38 5.46 4.37 4.55 4.74 4.93 5.12 5.31

Qmd (lps) 6.86 6.99 7.10 5.68 5.92 6.16 6.41 6.66 6.90

Qmh (lps) 10.56 10.76 10.92 8.74 9.10 9.48 9.86 10.24 10.62

Volumen (m3) 164 166 168 144 148 152 156 161 165

TOTAL Area (Ha) 734.66 734.66 734.66 734.66 734.66 734.66 734.66 734.66 734.66

SECTORES Población (hab) 32,090 32,407 32,724 33,040 33,357 33,675 33,995 34,315 34,635

01, 02, 03 y 04 Qp (lps) 65.15 65.75 66.27 53.11 54.02 54.97 55.95 56.96 58.03

Qmd (lps) 84.70 85.48 86.15 69.04 70.23 71.46 72.74 74.05 75.44

Qmh (lps) 130.30 131.50 132.54 106.22 108.04 109.94 111.90 113.92 116.06

Volumen (m3) 1557 1570 1582 1297 1317 1337 1358 1381 1404

Oferta (m3) #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!

Déficit / Superávit #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!



Cuadro N° 5

Cuadro de Demanda de Volumen de Almacenamiento por Sectores

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

105.99 105.99 105.99 105.99 105.99 105.99 105.99 105.99 105.99 105.99 105.99 105.99

12,137 12,288 12,439 12,591 12,742 12,893 13,044 13,195 13,346 13,498 13,649 13,800

19.34 19.96 20.38 20.71 20.94 21.17 21.40 21.67 21.91 22.13 22.36 22.59

25.14 25.95 26.49 26.92 27.22 27.52 27.82 28.17 28.48 28.77 29.07 29.37

38.68 39.92 40.76 41.42 41.88 42.34 42.80 43.34 43.82 44.26 44.72 45.18

468 481 490 497 502 507 512 518 523 528 533 538

478.48 478.48 478.48 478.48 478.48 478.48 478.48 478.48 478.48 478.48 478.48 478.48

19,172 19,284 19,397 19,510 19,624 19,739 19,854 19,971 20,087 20,205 20,323 20,442

34.16 34.36 34.54 34.78 34.96 35.16 35.35 35.55 35.78 35.97 36.17 36.37

44.41 44.67 44.90 45.21 45.45 45.71 45.96 46.21 46.51 46.76 47.02 47.28

68.32 68.72 69.08 69.56 69.92 70.32 70.70 71.10 71.56 71.94 72.34 72.74

788 792 796 801 805 809 814 818 823 827 831 836

150.19 150.19 150.19 150.19 150.19 150.19 150.19 150.19 150.19 150.19 150.19 150.19

3,646 3,705 3,763 3,821 3,879 3,938 3,996 4,054 4,112 4,171 4,229 4,287

5.51 5.72 5.86 5.96 6.04 6.13 6.22 6.30 6.39 6.48 6.57 6.66

7.16 7.44 7.62 7.75 7.85 7.97 8.09 8.19 8.31 8.42 8.54 8.66

11.02 11.44 11.72 11.92 12.08 12.26 12.44 12.60 12.78 12.96 13.14 13.32

169 174 177 179 180 182 184 186 188 190 192 194

734.66 734.66 734.66 734.66 734.66 734.66 734.66 734.66 734.66 734.66 734.66 734.66

34,955 35,277 35,599 35,922 36,245 36,570 36,894 37,220 37,545 37,874 38,201 38,529

59.01 60.04 60.78 61.45 61.94 62.46 62.97 63.52 64.08 64.58 65.10 65.62

76.71 78.05 79.01 79.89 80.52 81.20 81.86 82.58 83.30 83.95 84.63 85.31

118.02 120.08 121.56 122.90 123.88 124.92 125.94 127.04 128.16 129.16 130.20 131.24

1425 1447 1463 1477 1487 1498 1510 1522 1534 1545 1556 1568

#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!

#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!



PROYECCION DE LA DEMANDA DE DESAGUETOTAL

AÑO POBLACION

COBERTURA (%) CONEXIONES DE DESAGUE CONSUMO DE AGUA (l/día) DEMANDA DESAGUE

CONEX.

2,008 Base 147,119 10.4% 89.6% 15,369 3,423 3,423 0 0 0 0 3,423 2,183,874 0 0 0 0 2,183,874 20 1,747,099 637,691 36

2,009 A 159,403 10.2% 89.8% 16,203 3,609 3,609 0 0 0 0 3,609 2,302,542 0 0 0 0 2,302,542 21 1,842,034 672,342 38

2,010 0 172,714 9.7% 90.3% 16,725 3,725 3,725 0 0 0 0 3,725 2,376,550 0 0 0 0 2,376,550 22 1,901,240 693,953 40

2,011 1 187,135 100.00% 0.0% 187,135 41,677 41,677 41 40 40 40 41,838 26,589,926 71,600 159,547 266,000 84,000 27,171,072 251.58 21,736,858 7,933,953 452.85

2,012 2 202,761 100.0% 0.0% 202,761 45,160 45,160 41 40 41 40 45,322 28,812,080 71,600 159,547 566,000 84,000 29,693,226 274.94 23,754,581 8,670,422 494.89

2,013 3 207,648 100.0% 0.0% 207,648 46,247 46,247 41 40 41 40 46,409 29,505,586 71,600 159,547 566,000 84,000 30,386,732 281.36 24,309,386 8,872,926 506.45

2,014 4 212,669 100.0% 0.0% 212,669 47,365 47,365 41 40 41 40 47,527 30,218,870 71,600 159,547 566,000 84,000 31,100,016 287.96 24,880,013 9,081,205 518.33

2,015 5 217,829 100.0% 0.0% 217,829 48,515 48,515 41 40 41 40 48,677 30,952,570 71,600 159,547 566,000 84,000 31,833,716 294.76 25,466,973 9,295,445 530.56

2,016 6 223,131 100.0% 0.0% 223,131 49,696 49,696 49 48 49 48 49,890 31,706,048 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 32,703,074 302.81 26,162,459 9,549,298 545.05

2,017 7 228,583 100.0% 0.0% 228,583 50,910 50,910 49 48 49 48 51,104 32,480,580 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 33,477,606 309.98 26,782,085 9,775,461 557.96

2,018 8 234,190 100.0% 0.0% 234,190 52,158 52,158 49 48 49 48 52,352 33,276,804 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 34,273,830 317.35 27,419,064 10,007,958 571.23

2,019 9 239,957 100.0% 0.0% 239,957 53,442 53,442 49 48 49 48 53,636 34,095,996 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 35,093,022 324.94 28,074,418 10,247,163 584.88

2,020 10 245,892 100.0% 0.0% 245,892 54,763 54,763 49 48 49 48 54,957 34,938,794 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 35,935,820 332.74 28,748,656 10,493,260 598.93

2,021 11 252,001 100.0% 0.0% 252,001 56,125 56,125 49 48 49 48 56,319 35,807,750 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 36,804,776 340.78 29,443,821 10,746,995 613.41

2,022 12 258,290 100.0% 0.0% 258,290 57,526 57,526 49 48 49 48 57,720 36,701,588 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 37,698,614 349.06 30,158,891 11,007,995 628.31

2,023 13 264,769 100.0% 0.0% 264,769 58,970 58,970 49 48 49 48 59,164 37,622,860 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 38,619,886 357.59 30,895,909 11,277,007 643.66

2,024 14 271,445 100.0% 0.0% 271,445 60,454 60,454 49 48 49 48 60,648 38,569,652 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 39,566,678 366.36 31,653,343 11,553,470 659.44

2,025 15 278,326 100.0% 0.0% 278,326 61,987 61,987 57 56 57 56 62,213 39,547,706 99,541 223,365 672,400 117,600 40,660,612 376.49 32,528,490 11,872,899 677.68

2,026 16 285,422 100.0% 0.0% 285,422 63,568 63,568 57 56 57 56 63,794 40,556,384 99,541 223,365 672,400 117,600 41,669,290 385.83 33,335,432 12,167,433 694.49

2,027 17 292,742 100.0% 0.0% 292,742 65,199 65,199 57 56 57 56 65,425 41,596,962 99,541 223,365 672,400 117,600 42,709,868 395.46 34,167,895 12,471,282 711.83

2,028 18 300,297 100.0% 0.0% 300,297 66,880 66,880 57 56 57 56 67,106 42,669,440 99,541 223,365 672,400 117,600 43,782,346 405.39 35,025,877 12,784,445 729.71

2,029 19 308,098 100.0% 0.0% 308,098 68,618 68,618 57 56 57 56 68,844 43,778,284 99,541 223,365 672,400 117,600 44,891,190 415.66 35,912,952 13,108,228 748.19

2,030 20 316,157 100.0% 0.0% 316,157 70,413 70,413 57 56 57 56 70,639 44,923,494 99,541 223,365 672,400 117,600 46,036,400 426.26 36,829,120 13,442,629 767.27

(* ) OTROS MEDIOS se refiere a la utilización de letrinas, silos.

POBLACION SERVIDA

(hab)


Qmh desague

(lt/seg)OTROS

MEDIOS (*)

CNX DOME

CNX COMER

CNX IND

CNX ESTAT

CNX SOCIAL

TOTAL CNX

CONSUMO DOMESTICO

CONSUMO COMERCIAL

CONSUMO INDUSTRIAL

CONSUMO ESTATAL

CONSUMO SOCIAL

CONSUMO TOTAL

CONECTADO

Qp desague (lt/seg)

Qp desague (lt/dia)

Qp desague (m3/año)

Ampliación y Mejoramiento del Sistema de Agua Potable y Alcantarillado para el Macro Proyecto Pachacutec del Distrito de Ventanilla


PROYECCION DE LA DEMANDA DE DESAGUE DEL ESQUEMATOTAL

AÑO POBLACION

COBERTURA (%) CONEXIONES CONSUMO DE AGUA (l/día) DEMANDA DESAGUE

CONEX.

2,008 Base 147,119 0.00% 100.00% 15,369 3,423 3,423 0 0 0 0 3,423 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 0

2,009 A 159,403 0.00% 100.00% 16,202 3,609 3,609 0 0 0 0 3,609 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 0

2,010 0 172,714 9.68% 90.32% 16,726 3,725 3,725 0 0 0 0 3,725 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0 0

2,011 1 187,135 100.00% 0.00% 187,135 41,677 41,677 41 40 40 40 41,838 26,589,926 71,600 159,547 266,000 84,000 27,171,072 251.58 21,736,858 7,933,953

2,012 2 202,761 100.00% 0.00% 202,761 45,160 45,160 41 40 41 40 45,322 28,812,080 71,600 159,547 566,000 84,000 29,693,226 274.94 23,754,581 8,670,422

2,013 3 207,648 100.00% 0.00% 207,648 46,248 46,248 41 40 41 40 46,410 29,506,224 71,600 159,547 566,000 84,000 30,387,370 281.36 24,309,896 8,873,112

2,014 4 212,669 100.00% 0.00% 212,669 47,366 47,366 41 40 41 40 47,528 30,219,508 71,600 159,547 566,000 84,000 31,100,654 287.97 24,880,523 9,081,391

2,015 5 217,829 100.00% 0.00% 217,829 48,514 48,514 41 40 41 40 48,676 30,951,932 71,600 159,547 566,000 84,000 31,833,078 294.75 25,466,463 9,295,259

2,016 6 223,131 100.00% 0.00% 223,131 49,695 49,695 49 48 49 48 49,889 31,705,410 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 32,702,436 302.80 26,161,949 9,549,111

2,017 7 228,583 100.00% 0.00% 228,583 50,909 50,909 49 48 49 48 51,103 32,479,942 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 33,476,968 309.97 26,781,575 9,775,275

2,018 8 234,190 100.00% 0.00% 234,190 52,157 52,157 49 48 49 48 52,351 33,276,166 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 34,273,192 317.34 27,418,554 10,007,772

2,019 9 239,957 100.00% 0.00% 239,957 53,443 53,443 49 48 49 48 53,637 34,096,634 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 35,093,660 324.94 28,074,928 10,247,349

2,020 10 245,892 100.00% 0.00% 245,892 54,765 54,765 49 48 49 48 54,959 34,940,070 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 35,937,096 332.75 28,749,677 10,493,632

2,021 11 252,001 100.00% 0.00% 252,001 56,125 56,125 49 48 49 48 56,319 35,807,750 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 36,804,776 340.78 29,443,821 10,746,995

2,022 12 258,290 100.00% 0.00% 258,290 57,526 57,526 49 48 49 48 57,720 36,701,588 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 37,698,614 349.06 30,158,891 11,007,995

2,023 13 264,769 100.00% 0.00% 264,769 58,970 58,970 49 48 49 48 59,164 37,622,860 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 38,619,886 357.59 30,895,909 11,277,007

2,024 14 271,445 100.00% 0.00% 271,445 60,457 60,457 49 48 49 48 60,651 38,571,566 85,570 191,456 619,200 100,800 39,568,592 366.38 31,654,874 11,554,029

2,025 15 278,326 100.00% 0.00% 278,326 61,988 61,988 57 56 57 56 62,214 39,548,344 99,541 223,365 672,400 117,600 40,661,250 376.49 32,529,000 11,873,085

2,026 16 285,422 100.00% 0.00% 285,422 63,569 63,569 57 56 57 56 63,795 40,557,022 99,541 223,365 672,400 117,600 41,669,928 385.83 33,335,943 12,167,619

2,027 17 292,742 100.00% 0.00% 292,742 65,199 65,199 57 56 57 56 65,425 41,596,962 99,541 223,365 672,400 117,600 42,709,868 395.46 34,167,895 12,471,282

2,028 18 300,297 100.00% 0.00% 300,297 66,880 66,880 57 56 57 56 67,106 42,669,440 99,541 223,365 672,400 117,600 43,782,346 405.39 35,025,877 12,784,445

2,029 19 308,098 100.00% 0.00% 308,098 68,618 68,618 57 56 57 56 68,844 43,778,284 99,541 223,365 672,400 117,600 44,891,190 415.66 35,912,952 13,108,228

2,030 20 316,157 100.00% 0.00% 316,157 70,414 70,414 57 56 57 56 70,640 44,924,132 99,541 223,365 672,400 117,600 46,037,038 426.27 36,829,631 13,442,815

(* ) OTROS MEDIOS se refiere a la utilización de letrinas, silos.

POBLACION SERVIDA (hab)


OTROS MEDIOS

(*)

CNX DOME

CNX COMER

CNX IND

CNX ESTAT Y UNIV

CNX SOCIAL

TOTAL CNX

CONSUMO DOMESTICO

CONSUMO COMERCIAL

CONSUMO INDUSTRIAL

CONSUMO ESTATAL y

UNIVERSIDAD

CONSUMO SOCIAL

CONSUMO TOTAL

CONECTADO

Qp desague (lt/seg)

Qp desague (lt/dia)

Qp desague (m3/año)



PROYECCION DE LA DEMANDA DE DESAGUE DEL ESQUEMATOTAL

0.00

0.00

0.00

452.85

494.89

506.46

518.34

530.55

545.04

557.95

571.22

584.89

598.95

613.41

628.31

643.66

659.48

677.69

694.50

711.83

729.71

748.19

767.28

Qmh desague (lt/seg)



Cuadro de Oferta Demanda de Agua Potable (Situación Con Proyecto)TOTAL

Año

Demanda Total QP Volumen Demanda

(m3/año) (lt/seg)

2,008 Base 996,538 32 0 -32 41 57 55 682 248 0 930 11630 10700

2,009 A 1,050,780 33 0 -33 43 60 58 719 262 0 981 11630 10649

2,010 0 1,084,523 34 0 -34 45 62 60 743 270 0 1,013 11630 10617

2,011 1 12,396,802 393 0 -393 511 708 681 8,490 3,091 500 12,081 11630 -451

2,012 2 13,547,866 430 0 -430 558 773 745 9,280 3,378 500 13,158 11630 -1528

2,013 3 13,863,856 440 0 -440 572 791 762 9,496 3,456 500 13,452 11630 -1822

2,014 4 14,189,939 450 0 -450 585 810 780 9,718 3,538 500 13,756 11630 -2126

2,015 5 14,523,905 461 0 -461 599 829 798 9,948 3,621 500 14,069 11630 -2439

2,016 6 14,920,628 473 0 -473 615 852 820 10,220 3,720 500 14,440 11630 -2810

2,017 7 15,273,516 484 0 -484 630 872 839 10,461 3,808 500 14,769 11630 -3139

2,018 8 15,637,441 496 0 -496 645 893 859 10,709 3,899 500 15,108 11630 -3478

2,019 9 16,012,089 508 0 -508 660 914 880 10,966 3,992 500 15,458 11630 -3828

2,020 10 16,396,197 520 0 -520 676 936 901 11,231 4,088 500 15,819 11630 -4189

2,021 11 16,792,289 532 0 -532 692 958 923 11,503 4,187 500 16,190 11630 -4560

2,022 12 17,199,734 545 0 -545 709 982 945 11,781 4,288 500 16,569 11630 -4939

2,023 13 17,620,425 559 0 -559 726 1,006 968 12,070 4,393 500 16,963 11630 -5333

2,024 14 18,052,783 572 0 -572 744 1,030 992 12,364 4,501 500 17,365 11630 -5735

2,025 15 18,551,998 588 0 -588 765 1,059 1,020 12,705 4,625 500 17,830 11630 -6200

2,026 16 19,012,108 603 0 -603 784 1,085 1,045 13,023 4,740 500 18,263 11630 -6633

2,027 17 19,486,410 618 0 -618 803 1,112 1,071 13,346 4,858 500 18,704 11630 -7074

2,028 18 19,975,533 633 0 -633 823 1,140 1,098 13,681 4,980 500 19,161 11630 -7531

2,029 19 20,481,686 649 0 -649 844 1,169 1,126 14,031 5,106 500 19,637 11630 -8007

2,030 20 21,004,237 666 0 -666 866 1,199 1,154 14,387 5,237 500 20,124 11630 -8494

lps ( 00 lps Captación Cero Santa Catalina )

Oferta (lt/seg.)

Déficit / Superhabit

(lt/seg.)

QMD (lt/seg)

QMH (lt/seg)

QB (lt/seg)

Volumen Oferta

(m3)

Volumen Requerido

(m3)Vol. Reg. (m3) Vol. Res. (m3) Vol. Contra

Incen. (m3) Vol. Total (m3)



HOJA DE INGRESO DE DATOS

Registrar la información solicitada en los siguientes cuadros (celdas en amarillo):

a) Información base y parámetros

Localidad TOTAL Sin Proyecto Con Proyecto

POBLACIÓN ACTUAL (habitantes) 105,160 187,135NUMERO DE VIVIENDAS 20,312 11,444

2.88/1.74 2.88/1.745.11/5.44 5.11/5.44

0% 25%0.00% 100%

MICROMEDICIÓN COMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL (%) 0.00% 100%POBLACIÓN ACTUAL CON CONEXIONES AGUA (red pública) 0 ( 1º al º año )POBLACIÓN ACTUAL CON CONEXIONES DESAGUE (red pública) 0

0%(1) (Proyección INEI)(2) (Determinado por la Encuesta)(3) (Localidades Similares)(4) (Estimado)

b) Información de proyección de cobertura de los servicios

AÑO

MICROMEDICION (%)

DOMESTICO

2007 Base 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00% 0.00%

2008 A 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00% 0.0%

2009 0 9.7% 9.68% 25.0% 100.0% 100.00%

2010 1 100% 100% 25.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2011 2 100% 100% 25.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2012 3 100% 100% 25.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2013 4 100% 100% 25.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2014 5 100% 100% 25.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2015 6 100% 100% 25.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2016 7 100% 100% 25.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2017 8 100% 100% 25.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2018 9 100% 100% 25.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2019 10 100% 100% 25.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2020 11 100% 100% 25.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2021 12 100% 100% 25.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2022 13 100% 100% 25.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2023 14 100% 100% 25.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2024 15 100% 100% 25.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2025 16 100% 100% 25.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2026 17 100% 100% 25.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2027 18 100% 100% 25.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2028 19 100% 100% 25.0% 100.0% 100.0%

2029 20 100% 100% 25.0% 100.0% 100.0%Notas:Corresponden a valores proyectados por la UF* Información actual (año cero del proyecto)

TASA CRECIMIENTO ANUAL DE POBLACION (%) (1)

DENSIDAD POR LOTE (hab/lote) (2)

PORCENTAJE DE PÉRDIDAS (3)

MICROMEDICIÓN DOMESTICO (%) (4)

COBERTURA AGUA (%)

COBERTURA DESAGUE (%)

PÉRDIDAS DE AGUA (%)

COMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL

SOCIAL ESTATAL



c) Información de conexiones existentes al año 2007 por categorias (celdas en amarillo)

CONEXION POR TIPO DE AGUA POTABLE DESAGUETIPO DE USUARIO MEDICION No. De Conex. TOTAL Conex. TOTAL Conex.

Doméstico Con Medidor 00

0Sin Medidor 0

Comercial Con Medidor 00

0Sin Medidor 0

Industrial Con Medidor 00

0Sin Medidor 0

Estatal Con Medidor 00

0Sin Medidor 0

Social Con Medidor 00

0Sin Medidor 0

TOTAL 0 0

d) Información de consumos percapita por conexion (celdas en amarillo)

DATOS DE CONSUMO POR CONEXIÓN SEGÚN CATEGORIAS

(m3/mes/cnx) DOMESTICO

CONSUMO UNITARIO C/MEDIDOR 19.140

CONSUMO UNITARIO S/MEDIDOR 18.760COMERCIAL


CONSUMO UNITARIO S/MEDIDOR 22.53INDUSTRIAL


CONSUMO UNITARIO S/MEDIDOR 17.93ESTATAL


CONSUMO UNITARIO S/MEDIDOR 24.32SOCIAL


CONSUMO UNITARIO S/MEDIDOR 24.32CONSUMO DE LOS NO CONECTADOS

CONSUMO DE LOS NO CONECTADOS

e) Parámetros de Diseño (celdas en amarillo)

Caudal Promedio (Qp)

Caudal Máximo Diario (Qmd = K1 * QP) K1 = 1.3

Caudal Máximo Horario (Qmh = K2 * QP) K2 = 1.8

Caudal Bombeo (Qb = Qmd * 24/ # Hb) # Hb = 18

Caudal Promedio Desagüe (Qpd = K3 * Qp) K3 = 0.8

Caudal Desagüe (Qd = K3 * Qmh, Qd = K2 * Qpd)



Cuadro N° 1

CUADRO PARA EL INGRESO DE INFORMACION BASE PARA REALIZAR LA EVALUACION ECONOMICA DESISTEMA DE AGUA POTABLE - ALTERNATIVA SOLUCION

Ingresar sólo la información a) y b) en base a los resultados del Estudio de mercado contenido en el perfil del proyecto:

a) Datos de la situación sin proyecto

6.72

9.93

3,423

0.00

801,398

1.182

20.78 ERROR

20.82 1.42

b) Datos de la situación con proyecto (donde no corresponda colocar cero)

Años Población TotalNº de Familias conectadas al servicio

Total Antiguas Nuevas

Base 0

A 159,403 0.0% 3609 3,423 186 0 840,428 1,050,780 0 ###

0 172,714 9.7% 3725 3423 302 73,415,672.5 867,441 1,084,523 595,549 ###

1 187,135 100.0% 41677 3423 38254 233,600.0 9,917,441 12,396,802 6,807,515 ###

2 202,761 100.0% 45160 3423 41737 975,280.0 10,838,028 13,547,866 7,439,604 ###

3 207,648 100.0% 46248 3423 42825 1,643,960.0 11,091,390 13,863,856 7,613,125 ###

4 212,669 100.0% 47366 3423 43943 144,540.0 11,351,739 14,189,939 7,792,188 ###

5 217,829 100.0% 48514 3423 45091 2,683,480.0 11,619,074 14,523,905 7,975,581 ###

6 223,131 100.0% 49695 3423 46272 2,749,180.0 11,936,389 14,920,628 8,193,435 ###

7 228,583 100.0% 50909 3423 47486 2,324,320.0 12,219,093 15,273,516 8,387,218 ###

8 234,190 100.0% 52157 3423 48734 309,520.0 12,509,715 15,637,441 8,587,062 ###

9 239,957 100.0% 53443 3423 50020 3,128,780.0 12,809,186 16,012,089 8,792,794 ###

10 245,892 100.0% 54765 3423 51342 1,848,360.0 13,117,040 16,396,197 9,003,722 ###

11 252,001 100.0% 56125 3423 52702 563,560 13,433,743 16,792,289 9,003,722 ###

12 258,290 100.0% 57526 3423 54103 2,153,500 13,759,994 17,199,734 9,003,722 ###

13 264,769 100.0% 58970 3423 55547 0 14,096,259 17,620,425 9,003,722 ###

14 271,445 100.0% 60457 3423 57034 0 14,442,536 18,052,783 9,003,722 ###

15 278,326 100.0% 61988 3423 58565 0 14,841,356 18,551,998 9,003,722 ###

16 285,422 100.0% 63569 3423 60146 0 15,209,524 19,012,108 9,003,722 ###

17 292,742 100.0% 65199 3423 61776 0 15,589,102 19,486,410 9,003,722 ###

18 300,297 100.0% 66880 3423 63457 0 15,980,556 19,975,533 9,003,722 ###

19 308,098 100.0% 68618 3423 65195 0 16,385,284 20,481,686 9,003,722

20 316,157 100.0% 70414 3423 66991 0 16,803,519 21,004,237 9,003,722

INGRESO MINIMO FAMILIAR 775 Soles PRODUC PROMEDIO (M3) 15,321,579.25

DISPOSICION A PAGAR LOS SERVICIOS5.00% COSTO PROM.DE O&M C-P 7,782,954.94

38.75 Soles COSTO (S/M3) DE AGUA PRODUC. 0.508

Consumo de los no conectados al sistema (m3/mes/vivi.)

Precio económico del agua para los no conectados al sistema (S/./m3)

Nº de familias actualmente conectadas al sistema de agua potable

Consumo con racionamiento (c medidor) de los conectados al sistema (m3/mes/vivi.)

Costos de operación y mantenimiento de los sistemas actuales de agua y alcantarillado (S/./año)

Tarifa marginal de la EPS (usuarios sujetos a medición) S/m3

Consumo de saturación con tarifa marginal cero (m3/mes/conex)

Población Conectada (%)

Inversión Total a precios privados (S/.)

Consumo de agua (m3/año)

Producción de agua (m3/año)

Costos de Operación y mantenimiento a precios privados



Cuadro N° 2 no imprimir

CALCULO DE LA TARIFA PROMEDIO DE LARGO PLAZOALTERNATIVA 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Años

11%

0 #REF! 0% #REF! 5,537,052 0 5,537,052 1.000

1 159,403 1,050,780 0% 1,050,780 1,409,985 263,066,648 264,476,633 0.901

2 172,714 1,084,523 25% 813,392 413,530 273,195,157 273,608,687 0.812

3 187,135 12,396,802 25% 9,297,601 419,588 2,352,081,659 2,352,501,247 0.731

4 202,761 13,547,866 25% 10,160,899 421,820 2,566,635,504 2,567,057,324 0.659

5 207,648 13,863,856 25% 10,397,892 394,084 2,628,163,885 2,628,557,969 0.593

6 212,669 14,189,939 25% 10,642,454 165,485 2,691,366,263 2,691,531,748 0.535

7 217,829 14,523,905 25% 10,892,929 170,681 2,756,299,688 2,756,470,369 0.482

8 223,131 14,920,628 25% 11,190,471 176,550 2,832,621,826 2,832,798,376 0.434

9 228,583 15,273,516 25% 11,455,137 182,083 2,901,064,701 2,901,246,784 0.391

10 234,190 15,637,441 25% 11,728,081 134,101 2,979,628,067 2,979,762,168 0.352

11 239,957 16,012,089 25% 12,009,066 1,206,106 3,048,202,925 3,049,409,031 0.317

12 245,892 16,396,197 25% 12,297,148 187,841 3,118,753,117 3,118,940,958 0.286

13 252,001 16,792,289 25% 12,594,217 152,311 3,191,275,508 3,191,427,818 0.258

14 258,290 17,199,734 25% 12,899,801 77,708 3,265,874,531 3,265,952,239 0.232

15 264,769 17,620,425 25% 13,215,318 78,074 3,342,763,174 3,342,841,247 0.209

16 271,445 18,052,783 25% 13,539,587 78,074 3,421,781,696 3,421,859,770 0.188

17 278,326 18,551,998 25% 13,913,999 46,760 3,513,080,576 3,513,127,336 0.170

18 285,422 19,012,108 25% 14,259,081 47,279 3,597,264,056 3,597,311,335 0.153

19 292,742 19,486,410 25% 14,614,807 47,279 3,684,109,885 3,684,157,164 0.138

20 300,297 19,975,533 25% 14,981,650 0 3,773,618,063 3,773,618,063 0.124

11,346,390 56,200,846,927 VALOR ACTUAL

CIP (I+OM ) ### '= S/ #REF! por M3 1.70#REF!

CIP ( OM ) ### = S/ #REF! por M3 0.22#REF!

ANALISIS DE LA CAPACIDAD DE PAGO Y REQUERIMIENTOS DE SUBSIDIOS

COSTOS UNITARIOS/M3

Limite de Esta dentro

Capacidad de CapacidadPago (Soles)*** Pago ??

Costo Unitario de O & M #REF! #REF! 38.75 #REF!

Costo Unitario de Inv + O & M #REF! #REF! 38.75 #REF!** El consumo de 19.14 m3 corresponde al consumo/mes familia con micromediciòn segùn el estudio de demanda del caso*** Límite de capacidad de pago / conexión: S/ 775 x 0.05 = S/ 38.75**** Límite de capacidad de pago / conexión: S/ m3 2.00

Población Total


% de Pérdidas

Consumo (m3/año)

Inversión Total a precios

privados (S/.)

Costos de OM a precios privados

Total Costos a precios privados

Factor de Actualización

Soles por M3

'Pago / conex./mes por consumo de 19.14 m3

(Soles)**





10 11 12Valor Actual

5,537,052 0 #REF!

238,267,237 236,996,980 946,648

222,066,949 221,731,318 660,167

1,720,128,636 1,719,821,837 6,798,326

1,691,000,171 1,690,722,306 6,693,299

1,559,921,218 1,559,687,348 6,170,643

1,439,002,784 1,438,914,309 5,689,890

1,327,677,137 1,327,594,928 5,246,671

1,229,226,274 1,229,149,664 4,855,842

1,134,169,236 1,134,098,055 4,478,097

1,049,425,986 1,049,378,758 4,130,448

967,526,604 967,143,927 3,810,276

891,520,652 891,466,960 3,515,027

821,838,159 821,798,936 3,243,190

757,684,017 757,665,989 2,992,687

698,668,351 698,652,033 2,762,059

644,309,519 644,294,818 2,549,399

595,940,982 595,933,050 2,360,268

549,748,949 549,741,724 2,179,104

507,226,052 507,219,543 2,012,132

468,056,592 468,056,592 1,858,233

18,518,942,557 18,510,069,075 #REF!

Subsidio

(S/mes)por conexión

#REF!

#REF!** El consumo de 19.14 m3 corresponde al consumo/mes familia con micromediciòn segùn el estudio de demanda del caso*** Límite de capacidad de pago / conexión: S/ 775 x 0.05 = S/ 38.75

Costos de Inversión OM

Precios Privados (Soles)

Precios Privados

Consumos (Soles)



Cuadro N° 3

ALTERNATIVA SOLUCION

I + II ETAPA

1. Estimación de la curva de demanda de agua

Variable cantidadnuevos usuarios

Variable preciocantidad (S/.)

0 14.67curva:

6.72 9.93 Q = 20.78 -1.42 P

19.11 1.182 Tarifa de la EPS o propuesta

20.78 0.0

2. Estimación de los beneficios de nuevos usuarios 2.1 Usuarios sujetos a micromedición a. Beneficios por recursos liberados 66.69 (S/. / fam/mes) b. Beneficios por incremento del consumo de agua 68.84 (S/. / fam/mes) c. Beneficios brutos totales 135.53 (S/. / fam/mes)

I. Curva de la Demanda y Beneficios Económicos para NUEVOS USUARIOS

Precio (S/./m3)

Precio máximo al cual no se demandaria agua potable

Consumo de los no conectados al sistema (m3/mes/vivi.)

Precio económico del agua para los no conectados al sistema (S/./m3)

Consumo según tarifa de EPS o propuesta (m3/mes/vivi.)

Consumo de saturación con tarifa marginal cero (m3/mes/vivi.)

0 5 10 15 20 250.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

14.67

9.93

1.182

0.0

CURVA DE DEMANDA Y BENEFICIOS ECONOMICOS PARA NUEVOS USUARIOS

Q (m3/usuario/mes)

P (

S/./

m3

)

Area de beneficios

Recursos lib-erados

6.0



COSTOS O Y M AGUA - SIN PROYECTO COSTOS O Y M AGUA - CON PROYECTOCOSTOS INCREMENTALES-AGUA

Año Año Año

0 1,084,523 0.549 577,020 0.467 490,661 0 1,084,523 0.549 595,549 0.467 506,417 0 18,530 15,7571 12,396,802 0.549 577,020 0.467 490,661 1 12,396,802 0.549 6,807,515 0.467 5,788,678 1 6,230,495 5,298,0172 13,547,866 0.549 577,020 0.467 490,661 2 13,547,866 0.549 7,439,604 0.467 6,326,166 2 6,862,584 5,835,5063 13,863,856 0.549 577,020 0.467 490,661 3 13,863,856 0.549 7,613,125 0.467 6,473,718 3 7,036,106 5,983,0574 14,189,939 0.549 577,020 0.467 490,661 4 14,189,939 0.549 7,792,188 0.467 6,625,982 4 7,215,169 6,135,3215 14,523,905 0.549 577,020 0.467 490,661 5 14,523,905 0.549 7,975,581 0.467 6,781,927 5 7,398,561 6,291,2666 14,920,628 0.549 577,020 0.467 490,661 6 14,920,628 0.549 8,193,435 0.467 6,967,177 6 7,616,416 6,476,5167 15,273,516 0.549 577,020 0.467 490,661 7 15,273,516 0.549 8,387,218 0.467 7,131,957 7 7,810,199 6,641,2978 15,637,441 0.549 577,020 0.467 490,661 8 15,637,441 0.549 8,587,062 0.467 7,301,892 8 8,010,043 6,811,2319 16,012,089 0.549 577,020 0.467 490,661 9 16,012,089 0.549 8,792,794 0.467 7,476,834 9 8,215,775 6,986,173

10 16,396,197 0.549 577,020 0.467 490,661 10 16,396,197 0.549 9,003,722 0.467 7,656,193 10 8,426,702 7,165,53211 16,792,289 0.549 577,020 0.467 490,661 11 16,792,289 0.549 9,003,722 0.467 7,656,193 11 8,426,702 7,165,53212 17,199,734 0.549 577,020 0.467 490,661 12 17,199,734 0.549 9,003,722 0.467 7,656,193 12 8,426,702 7,165,53213 17,620,425 0.549 577,020 0.467 490,661 13 17,620,425 0.549 9,003,722 0.467 7,656,193 13 8,426,702 7,165,53214 18,052,783 0.549 577,020 0.467 490,661 14 18,052,783 0.549 9,003,722 0.467 7,656,193 14 8,426,702 7,165,53215 18,551,998 0.549 577,020 0.467 490,661 15 18,551,998 0.549 9,003,722 0.467 7,656,193 15 8,426,702 7,165,53216 19,012,108 0.549 577,020 0.467 490,661 16 19,012,108 0.549 9,003,722 0.467 7,656,193 16 8,426,702 7,165,53217 19,486,410 0.549 577,020 0.467 490,661 17 19,486,410 0.549 9,003,722 0.467 7,656,193 17 8,426,702 7,165,53218 19,975,533 0.549 577,020 0.467 490,661 18 19,975,533 0.549 9,003,722 0.467 7,656,193 18 8,426,702 7,165,53219 20,481,686 0.549 577,020 0.467 490,661 19 20,481,686 0.549 9,003,722 0.467 7,656,193 19 8,426,702 7,165,53220 21,004,237 0.549 577,020 0.467 490,661 20 21,004,237 0.549 9,003,722 0.467 7,656,193 20 8,426,702 7,165,532

* Para el Cálculo de los costos Privados y Sociales se mantiene constante la Demanda de año "A"

COSTOS O Y M ALCANT - SIN PROYECTO COSTOS O Y M ALCANT - CON PROYECTOCOSTOS INCREMENTALES-ALC

Año Año Año

0 1,249,115 0.185 224,378 0.159 192,168 0 1,249,115 0.185 231,590 0.159 198,345 0 7,212 6,1771 14,281,116 0.185 224,378 0.159 192,168 1 14,281,116 0.185 2,647,769 0.159 2,267,677 1 2,423,390 2,075,5082 15,606,760 0.185 224,378 0.159 192,168 2 15,606,760 0.185 2,893,548 0.159 2,478,174 2 2,669,169 2,286,0053 15,971,267 0.185 224,378 0.159 192,168 3 15,971,267 0.185 2,961,128 0.159 2,536,053 3 2,736,750 2,343,8854 16,346,169 0.185 224,378 0.159 192,168 4 16,346,169 0.185 3,030,637 0.159 2,595,583 4 2,806,258 2,403,4155 16,731,801 0.185 224,378 0.159 192,168 5 16,731,801 0.185 3,102,134 0.159 2,656,817 5 2,877,756 2,464,6496 17,188,736 0.185 224,378 0.159 192,168 6 17,188,736 0.185 3,186,851 0.159 2,729,373 6 2,962,473 2,537,2057 17,595,830 0.185 224,378 0.159 192,168 7 17,595,830 0.185 3,262,328 0.159 2,794,015 7 3,037,950 2,601,8478 18,014,325 0.185 224,378 0.159 192,168 8 18,014,325 0.185 3,339,919 0.159 2,860,467 8 3,115,540 2,668,2999 18,444,893 0.185 224,378 0.159 192,168 9 18,444,893 0.185 3,419,747 0.159 2,928,836 9 3,195,369 2,736,668

10 18,887,867 0.185 224,378 0.159 192,168 10 18,887,867 0.185 3,501,876 0.159 2,999,176 10 3,277,498 2,807,00711 19,344,590 0.185 224,378 0.159 192,168 11 19,344,590 0.185 3,586,554 0.159 3,071,698 11 3,362,176 2,879,53012 19,814,392 0.185 224,378 0.159 192,168 12 19,814,392 0.185 3,673,657 0.159 3,146,297 12 3,449,279 2,954,12913 20,298,612 0.185 224,378 0.159 192,168 13 20,298,612 0.185 3,763,433 0.159 3,223,186 13 3,539,055 3,031,01714 20,796,246 0.185 224,378 0.159 192,168 14 20,796,246 0.185 3,855,696 0.159 3,302,204 14 3,631,318 3,110,03615 21,371,218 0.185 224,378 0.159 192,168 15 21,371,218 0.185 3,962,298 0.159 3,393,503 15 3,737,920 3,201,33516 21,901,379 0.185 224,378 0.159 192,168 16 21,901,379 0.185 4,060,592 0.159 3,477,687 16 3,836,214 3,285,51817 22,448,307 0.185 224,378 0.159 192,168 17 22,448,307 0.185 4,161,994 0.159 3,564,532 17 3,937,616 3,372,36418 23,012,001 0.185 224,378 0.159 192,168 18 23,012,001 0.185 4,266,505 0.159 3,654,041 18 4,042,127 3,461,87219 23,594,810 0.185 224,378 0.159 192,168 19 23,594,810 0.185 4,374,560 0.159 3,746,584 19 4,150,182 3,554,41520 24,196,732 0.185 224,378 0.159 192,168 20 24,196,732 0.185 4,486,158 0.159 3,842,162 20 4,261,780 3,649,994

* Para el Cálculo de los costos Privados y Sociales se mantiene constante la Demanda de año "A"

Demanda de Agua Potable

(m3/año)

Costos Unitarios de O y M (Privado)

Costos a Precios Privados (1)

(S/.)

Costos Unitarios de O y M

(Sociales)

Costos a Precios Sociales(2)

(S/.)


(m3/año)



(S/.)

Costos Unitarios de O y M (Sociales)


(S/.)


(S/.)


(S/.)


(m3/año)



(S/.)

Costos Unitarios de O y M

(Sociales)


(S/.)


(m3/año)



(S/.)

Costos Unitarios de O y M (Sociales)


(S/.)


(S/.)


(S/.)



Cuadro N° 2

CALCULO DE LA TARIFA PROMEDIO DE LARGO PLAZOALTERNATIVA SOLUCION

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Años

Valor Actual

9%

0 0 25% 0 152,829,102 827,139 153,656,241 1.000 153,656,241 827,139 0

1 187,135 12,396,802 25% 9,297,601 456,000 9,455,283 9,911,283 0.917 9,092,920 8,674,572 8,529,909

2 202,761 13,547,866 25% 10,160,899 1,903,800 10,333,151 12,236,951 0.842 10,299,597 8,697,207 8,552,226

3 207,648 13,863,856 25% 10,397,892 3,209,100 10,574,254 13,783,354 0.772 10,643,278 8,165,264 8,029,081

4 212,669 14,189,939 25% 10,642,454 282,150 10,822,825 11,104,975 0.708 7,867,044 7,667,162 7,539,383

5 217,829 14,523,905 25% 10,892,929 5,238,300 11,077,715 16,316,015 0.650 10,604,290 7,199,755 7,079,656

6 223,131 14,920,628 25% 11,190,471 5,366,550 11,380,287 16,746,837 0.596 9,985,591 6,785,693 6,672,512

7 228,583 15,273,516 25% 11,455,137 4,537,200 11,649,546 16,186,746 0.547 8,854,705 6,372,701 6,266,352

8 234,190 15,637,441 25% 11,728,081 604,200 11,926,981 12,531,181 0.502 6,288,977 5,985,749 5,885,928

9 239,957 16,012,089 25% 12,009,066 6,107,550 12,212,542 18,320,092 0.460 8,435,079 5,622,993 5,529,308

10 245,892 16,396,197 25% 12,297,148 3,608,100 12,505,598 16,113,698 0.422 6,806,600 5,282,500 5,194,448

11 252,001 16,792,289 25% 12,594,217 536,540 12,590,276 13,126,816 0.388 5,087,072 4,879,146 4,880,673

12 258,290 17,199,734 25% 12,899,801 2,050,250 12,677,379 14,727,629 0.356 5,236,183 4,507,248 4,586,327

13 264,769 17,620,425 25% 13,215,318 462,870 12,767,155 13,230,025 0.326 4,315,352 4,164,373 4,310,555

14 271,445 18,052,783 25% 13,539,587 1,135,630 12,859,418 13,995,048 0.299 4,187,969 3,848,135 4,051,674

15 278,326 18,551,998 25% 13,913,999 979,950 12,966,020 13,945,970 0.275 3,828,699 3,559,666 3,819,922

16 285,422 19,012,108 25% 14,259,081 1,327,450 13,064,314 14,391,764 0.252 3,624,850 3,290,506 3,591,431

17 292,742 19,486,410 25% 14,614,807 2,018,280 13,165,716 15,183,996 0.231 3,508,614 3,042,244 3,377,090

18 300,297 19,975,533 25% 14,981,650 593,530 13,270,227 13,863,757 0.212 2,939,030 2,813,205 3,176,016

19 308,098 20,481,686 25% 15,361,264 614,380 13,378,281 13,992,661 0.194 2,721,428 2,601,938 2,987,607

20 316,157 21,004,237 25% 15,753,178 626,890 13,489,880 14,116,770 0.178 2,518,868 2,407,011 2,810,854

194,487,822 242,993,986 VALOR ACTUAL 280,502,389 106,394,207 106,870,951

CIP (I+ OM ) 280,502,389 '= S/ 2.62 por M3106,870,951

CIP ( OM ) 106,394,207 = S/ 1.00 por M3106,870,951

ANALISIS DE LA CAPACIDAD DE PAGO Y REQUERIMIENTOS DE SUBSIDIOSALTERNATIVA 1

COSTOS UNITARIOS/M3

Limite de Esta dentro Subsidio

Capacidad de Capacidad (S/mes)Pago (Soles)*** Pago ?? por conexión

Costo Unitario de O & M 1.00 19.05 38.75 SI 0.00

Costo Unitario de Inv + O & M 2.62 50.24 38.75 NO 11.49

** El consumo de 19.14 m3 corresponde al consumo/mes familia con micromediciòn segùn el estudio de demanda del caso

*** Límite de capacidad de pago / conexión: S/ 775 x 0.05 = S/ 38.75**** Límite de capacidad de pago / conexión: S/ m3 2.025

Población Total


% de Pérdidas

Consumo (m3/año)


privados (S/.)




Costos de Inversión OM Precios

Privados (Soles)

Precios Privados

Consumos (m3/año)

Soles por M3

'Pago / conex./mes por consumo de 19.14

m3 (Soles)**



EVALUACION ECONOMICA DE SISTEMA DE AGUA POTABLEALTERNATIVA SOLUCION

1 2 3 4a 4b 4c 5a 5b 5c 6 7 8 9 10 11

Años

Nº Familias Conectadas al Servicio Beneficios Brutos (S/.año)

Antiguas Nuevas Total Antiguas Nuevas Total11%

0 61,142,318.3 0 -61,142,318 1.000 -61,142,318

1 187135 100.0% 3,423 38254 41677 6,221,612 62,216,777 68,438,388 226,740 12,396,802 6,230,495 61,981,154 0.901 55,838,877

2 202761 100.0% 3,423 41737 45160 6,221,612 67,881,571 74,103,182 946,638 13,547,866 6,862,584 66,293,960 0.812 53,805,665

3 207648 100.0% 3,423 42825 46248 6,221,612 69,651,107 75,872,719 1,595,681 13,863,856 7,036,106 67,240,932 0.731 49,165,990

4 212669 100.0% 3,423 43943 47366 6,221,612 71,469,436 77,691,048 140,295 14,189,939 7,215,169 70,335,584 0.659 46,332,228

5 217829 100.0% 3,423 45091 48514 6,221,612 73,336,558 79,558,169 2,604,673 14,523,905 7,398,561 69,554,935 0.593 41,277,469

6 223131 100.0% 3,423 46272 49695 6,221,612 75,257,350 81,478,962 2,668,443 14,920,628 7,616,416 71,194,103 0.535 38,063,275

7 228583 100.0% 3,423 47486 50909 6,221,612 77,231,815 83,453,427 2,256,060 15,273,516 7,810,199 73,387,168 0.482 35,347,547

8 234190 100.0% 3,423 48734 52157 6,221,612 79,261,578 85,483,189 300,430 15,637,441 8,010,043 77,172,716 0.434 33,487,286

9 239957 100.0% 3,423 50020 53443 6,221,612 81,353,144 87,574,755 3,036,895 16,012,089 8,215,775 76,322,085 0.391 29,836,194

10 245892 100.0% 3,423 51342 54765 6,221,612 83,503,261 89,724,873 1,794,078 16,396,197 8,426,702 79,504,092 0.352 28,000,107

11 252001 100.0% 3,423 52702 56125 6,221,612 85,715,182 91,936,793 547,010 16,792,289 8,426,702 82,963,082 0.317 26,322,802

12 258290 100.0% 3,423 54103 57526 6,221,612 87,993,785 94,215,397 2,090,257 17,199,734 8,426,702 83,698,438 0.286 23,924,430

13 264769 100.0% 3,423 55547 58970 6,221,612 90,342,325 96,563,936 0 17,620,425 8,426,702 88,137,234 0.258 22,696,594

14 271445 100.0% 3,423 57034 60457 6,221,612 92,760,800 98,982,411 0 18,052,783 8,426,702 90,555,709 0.232 21,008,456

15 278326 100.0% 3,423 58565 61988 6,221,612 95,250,837 101,472,449 0 18,551,998 8,426,702 93,045,747 0.209 19,446,966

16 285422 100.0% 3,423 60146 63569 6,221,612 97,822,195 104,043,807 0 19,012,108 8,426,702 95,617,105 0.188 18,003,955

17 292742 100.0% 3,423 61776 65199 6,221,612 100,473,247 106,694,859 0 19,486,410 8,426,702 98,268,157 0.170 16,669,485

18 300297 100.0% 3,423 63457 66880 6,221,612 103,207,246 109,428,858 0 19,975,533 8,426,702 101,002,156 0.153 15,435,369

19 308098 100.0% 3,423 65195 68618 6,221,612 106,033,951 112,255,562 0 20,481,686 8,426,702 103,828,860 0.138 14,294,912

20 316157 100.0% 3,423 66991 70414 6,221,612 108,954,987 115,176,599 0 21,004,237 8,426,702 106,749,897 0.124 13,240,607

Proyecto Rentable en Términos Sociales VAN SOCIAL 541,055,895

TIR SOCIAL 105.84%

Población Total

Población Conectada

(%)


sociales (S/.)

Producción de agua

(m3/año)

Costos de Operación y

mantenimiento incrementales

Flujo neto a precios sociales

Factor de descuento

Valor actual del flujo neto a precios sociales

INFORME FINALEstudio de Factibilidad del Proyecto de Mejoramiento y Ampliación

de los Sistemas de Agua Potable y Alcantarillado de la Ciudad de Junín

Consorcio Tres C

Cuadro N° 7

ANALISIS DE RIESGO - EVALUACION FINANCIERAALTERNATIVA 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

AñosTarifa

1.41(S/. m3)

0 4,795,729 4,795,729 -4,795,729

1 159,403 1,050,780 0% #REF! 1.41 #REF! 1,004,354 263,066,648 264,071,002 #REF!

2 172,714 1,084,523 25% #REF! 1.41 #REF! 767,875 273,195,157 273,963,032 #REF!

3 187,135 12,396,802 25% #REF! 1.41 #REF! 683,623 2,352,081,659 2,352,765,282 #REF!

4 202,761 13,547,866 25% #REF! 1.41 #REF! 364,575 2,566,635,504 2,567,000,079 #REF!

5 207,648 13,863,856 25% #REF! 1.41 #REF! 370,445 2,628,163,885 2,628,534,330 #REF!

6 212,669 14,189,939 25% #REF! 1.41 #REF! 214,539 2,691,366,263 2,691,580,803 #REF!

7 217,829 14,523,905 25% #REF! 1.41 #REF! 221,704 2,756,299,688 2,756,521,392 #REF!

8 223,131 14,920,628 25% #REF! 1.41 #REF! 228,924 2,832,621,826 2,832,850,750 #REF!

9 228,583 15,273,516 25% #REF! 1.41 #REF! 200,309 2,901,064,701 2,901,265,011 #REF!

10 234,190 15,637,441 25% #REF! 1.41 #REF! 174,360 2,979,628,067 2,979,802,427 #REF!

11 239,957 16,012,089 25% #REF! 1.41 #REF! 907,453 3,048,202,925 3,049,110,378 #REF!

12 245,892 16,396,197 25% #REF! 1.41 #REF! 163,538 3,118,753,117 3,118,916,655 #REF!

13 252,001 16,792,289 25% #REF! 1.41 #REF! 164,058 3,191,275,508 3,191,439,566 #REF!

14 258,290 17,199,734 25% #REF! 1.41 #REF! 97,508 3,265,874,531 3,265,972,038 #REF!

15 264,769 17,620,425 25% #REF! 1.41 #REF! 98,294 3,342,763,174 3,342,861,468 #REF!

16 271,445 18,052,783 25% #REF! 1.41 #REF! 98,294 3,421,781,696 3,421,879,990 #REF!

17 278,326 18,551,998 25% #REF! 1.41 #REF! 46,760 3,513,080,576 3,513,127,336 #REF!

18 285,422 19,012,108 25% #REF! 1.41 #REF! 47,279 3,597,264,056 3,597,311,335 #REF!

19 292,742 19,486,410 25% #REF! 1.41 #REF! 0 3,684,109,885 3,684,109,885 #REF!

20 300,297 19,975,533 25% #REF! 1.41 #REF! 0 3,773,618,063 3,773,618,063 #REF!

VAN (f) #REF!TIR (f) #REF!

Población Total


Porcentaje de Pérdidas

Volumen Facturado (m3/año)

Beneficios Financieros


privados (S/.)


mantenimiento a precios privados


Beneficio Financiero Neto



Cuadro N° 6

ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD DEL SISTEMA DE AGUA POTABLE


1 2 3 4a 4b 4c 5a 5b 5c 6 7 8 9 10 11 VAN (s) TIR (s)

Años

Nº Familias Conectadas al Servicio Beneficios Brutos (S/.año) 541,055,895 105.84%

Antiguas Nuevas Total Antiguas Nuevas Total ESCENARIOS DE SENSIBILIDAD

11% Escen. 1.-Incremento de Costos de Inversión

0 61,142,318 0 -61,142,318 1.000 -61,142,318 Incremento VAN (s) TIR (s)

1 187135 100.0% 3423 38254 41677 6,221,612 62,216,777 68,438,388 226,740 12,396,802 6,230,495 61,981,154 0.901 55,838,877 0.00% 541,055,895 Err:504

2 202761 100.0% 3,423 41737 45160 6,221,612 67,881,571 74,103,182 946,638 13,547,866 6,862,584 66,293,960 0.812 53,805,665 128.5% 450,879,912 Err:504

3 207648 100.0% 3,423 42825 46248 6,221,612 69,651,107 75,872,719 1,595,681 13,863,856 7,036,106 67,240,932 0.731 49,165,990 257.1% 360,703,930 Err:504

4 212669 100.0% 3,423 43943 47366 6,221,612 71,469,436 77,691,048 140,295 14,189,939 7,215,169 70,335,584 0.659 46,332,228 385.6% 270,527,947 Err:504

5 217829 100.0% 3,423 45091 48514 6,221,612 73,336,558 79,558,169 2,604,673 14,523,905 7,398,561 69,554,935 0.593 41,277,469 514.2% 180,351,965 Err:504

6 223131 100.0% 3,423 46272 49695 6,221,612 75,257,350 81,478,962 2,668,443 14,920,628 7,616,416 71,194,103 0.535 38,063,275 642.7% 90,175,982 Err:504

7 228583 100.0% 3,423 47486 50909 6,221,612 77,231,815 83,453,427 2,256,060 15,273,516 7,810,199 73,387,168 0.482 35,347,547 771.25% 0 11.0%

8 234190 100.0% 3,423 48734 52157 6,221,612 79,261,578 85,483,189 300,430 15,637,441 8,010,043 77,172,716 0.434 33,487,286 Escen. 2.- Disminución de Beneficios

9 239957 100.0% 3,423 50020 53443 6,221,612 81,353,144 87,574,755 3,036,895 16,012,089 8,215,775 76,322,085 0.391 29,836,194 Disminución VAN (f) TIR (f)

10 245892 100.0% 3,423 51342 54765 6,221,612 83,503,261 89,724,873 1,794,078 16,396,197 8,426,702 79,504,092 0.352 28,000,107 0.00% 541,055,895 Err:504

11 252001 100.0% 3,423 52702 56125 6,221,612 85,715,182 91,936,793 547,010 16,792,289 8,426,702 82,963,082 0.317 26,322,802 26.9% 360,703,930 Err:504

12 258290 100.0% 3,423 54103 57526 6,221,612 87,993,785 94,215,397 2,090,257 17,199,734 8,426,702 83,698,438 0.286 23,924,430 53.7% 180,351,965 Err:504

13 264769 100.0% 3,423 55547 58970 6,221,612 90,342,325 96,563,936 0 17,620,425 8,426,702 88,137,234 0.258 22,696,594 80.56% 0 11.0%

14 271445 100.0% 3,423 57034 60457 6,221,612 92,760,800 98,982,411 0 18,052,783 8,426,702 90,555,709 0.232 21,008,456 Escen. 3.- Incremento Costos de Oper. y Mant.

15 278326 100.0% 3,423 58565 61988 6,221,612 95,250,837 101,472,449 0 18,551,998 8,426,702 93,045,747 0.209 19,446,965 Incremento VAN (f) TIR (f)

16 285422 100.0% 3,423 60146 63569 6,221,612 97,822,195 104,043,807 0 19,012,108 8,426,702 95,617,105 0.188 18,003,955 0.00% 541,055,895 Err:504

17 292742 100.0% 3,423 61776 65199 6,221,612 100,473,247 106,694,859 0 19,486,410 8,426,702 98,268,157 0.170 16,669,485 127.9% 463,762,196 Err:504

18 300297 100.0% 3,423 63457 66880 6,221,612 103,207,246 109,428,858 0 19,975,533 8,426,702 101,002,156 0.153 15,435,369 255.8% 386,468,496 Err:504

19 308098 100.0% 3,423 65195 68618 6,221,612 106,033,951 112,255,562 0 20,481,686 8,426,702 103,828,860 0.138 14,294,912 383.7% 309,174,797 Err:504

20 316157 100.0% 3,423 66991 70414 6,221,612 108,954,987 115,176,599 0 21,004,237 8,426,702 106,749,897 0.124 13,240,607 511.6% 231,881,098 Err:504

671,647,588 70,153,568.7 60,438,124 639.4% 154,587,399 #VALUE!

767.3% 77,293,699 #VALUE!

Proyecto Rentable en Términos Sociales VAN SOCIAL 541,055,895 895.22% 0 11.0%

8.95222840 TIR SOCIAL 105.84% FUENTE: Elaboración del Consultor7.71245006 MAX INCR DE INVERSION 541,055,895 105.84%

541055895 0.80556515719 MAX REDUCCION DE BENEFICIOS 541,055,895 VAN (f) TIR (f)

Cuadro Nº 6A

Alternativa 1: Análisis de Sensibilidad en las Variables Principales

Población Total


(%)

Inversión Total a precios sociales

(S/.)





Factor de descuento Valor actual del

flujo neto a precios sociales




FLUJO DE CAJA PROYECTADO - EVALUACION FINANCIERAALTERNATIVA 1

MUNICIPIO: SERVICIO DE AGUA POTABLE Y ALCANTARILLADO **

RUBROS 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

I INGRESOS DE OPERACION #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!

Volumen Consumido (m3/año) #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!

Tarifa /S/ m3) 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.18 1.18

% Morosidad 55% 49% 43% 37% 25% 24% 23%

Ingresos por Tarifas #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!

Otros

II EGRESOS DE OPERACION 0 263,066,648 273,195,157 2,352,081,659 2,566,635,504 2,628,163,885 2,691,366,263 2,756,299,688

Costos de O y M situación con proyecto 263,066,648 273,195,157 2,352,081,659 2,566,635,504 2,628,163,885 2,691,366,263 2,756,299,688

III SALDO OPERATIVO 0 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!

IV GASTOS DE CAPITAL 5,537,052 1,963,610 967,155 973,213 975,444 947,709 719,109 724,305

Presupuesto de inversiones 5,537,052 1,409,985 413,530 419,588 421,820 394,084 165,485 170,681

Reposición activos existentes*** 553,625 553,625 553,625 553,625 553,625 553,625 553,625

V INGRESOS DE CAPITAL 4,983,347 1,268,987 413,530 419,588 421,820 394,084 165,485 170,681

Fondos Electroandes y otros 4,983,347 1,268,987 413,530 419,588 421,820 394,084 165,485 170,681

0 SALDO**** -553,705 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!

Nota: Si no existe una Unidad de gestión independiente para los servicios de agua y alcantarillado se requiere efectuar una estimación de las cifras para esteFlujo de caja proyectado, Tasa VAN (9 %)

** Este formato será utilizado también para el flujo de caja de cada uno de los proyectos cuya operación y mantenimeinto estará a cargo de la EPS, una vez ejecutada las inversiones..*** Fondo para reponer los activos existentes**** Aportes de la Municipalidad




FLUJO DE CAJA PROYECTADO - EVALUACION FINANCIERAALTERNATIVA 1

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!


1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18

22% 21% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 16%


2,832,621,826 2,901,064,701 2,979,628,067 3,048,202,925 3,118,753,117 3,191,275,508 3,265,874,531 3,342,763,174 3,421,781,696

2,832,621,826 2,901,064,701 2,979,628,067 3,048,202,925 3,118,753,117 3,191,275,508 3,265,874,531 3,342,763,174 3,421,781,696


730,175 735,707 687,726 1,759,730 741,465 705,935 631,333 631,698 631,698

176,550 182,083 134,101 1,206,106 187,841 152,311 77,708 78,074 78,074

553,625 553,625 553,625 553,625 553,625 553,625 553,625 553,625 553,625

176,550 182,083 134,101 1,206,106 187,841 152,311 77,708 78,074 78,074

176,550 182,083 134,101 1,206,106 187,841 152,311 77,708 78,074 78,074


VANP #REF!

TIR #REF!



Consorcio Tres C

Cuadro N° 14

ANALISIS DE RIESGO - EVALUACION FINANCIERAALTERNATIVA 2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

AñosTarifa

1.46(S/. m3)

0 9,595,048 9,595,048 -9,595,048

1 #REF! #REF! 0% #REF! 1.46 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!









10 #REF! #REF! 25% #REF! 1.46 #REF! 2,611,478 #REF! #REF! #REF!











VAN (f) #REF!TIR (f) #REF!

Población Total


Porcentaje de Pérdidas

Volumen Facturado (m3/año)

Beneficios Financieros


privados (S/.)


mantenimiento a precios privados


Beneficio Financiero Neto



INDICE COSTO EFECTIVIDAD DEL SUBCOMPONENTE DE ALCANTARILLADO REDESALTERNATIVA SOLUCION

(A PRECIOS SOCIALES)

Años

INVERSION TOTAL

Base

A

0 65,207,001.95 6,176.7 65,213,178.6 16,725

1 212,908.68 2,075,508.2 2,288,416.8 170,410 187,135

2 888,893.73 2,286,005.2 3,174,898.9 15,626 202,761

3 1,498,344.82 2,343,884.6 3,842,229.5 4,887 207,648

4 131,737.24 2,403,414.8 2,535,152.0 5,021 212,669

5 2,445,788.44 2,464,648.8 4,910,437.2 5,159 217,829

6 2,505,669.01 2,537,204.7 5,042,873.7 5,303 223,131

7 2,118,441.35 2,601,846.6 4,720,287.9 5,452 228,583

8 282,104.00 2,668,298.8 2,950,402.8 5,607 234,190

9 2,851,645.61 2,736,667.9 5,588,313.5 5,767 239,957

10 1,684,639.92 2,807,007.2 4,491,647.1 5,935 245,892

11 513,642.19 2,879,529.6 3,393,171.8 6,109 252,001

12 1,962,751.88 2,954,128.6 4,916,880.5 6,290 258,290

13 443,116.19 3,031,017.3 3,474,133.4 6,479 264,769

14 1,087,164.94 3,110,035.8 4,197,200.7 6,676 271,445

15 938,128.86 3,201,334.7 4,139,463.5 6,881 278,326

16 1,270,798.67 3,285,518.1 4,556,316.8 7,096 285,422

17 1,932,146.26 3,372,364.0 5,304,510.2 7,320 292,742

18 568,200.04 3,461,872.1 4,030,072.2 7,555 300,297

19 588,160.22 3,554,415.4 4,142,575.6 7,801 308,098

20 600,136.34 3,649,993.7 4,250,130.1 8,058 316,157

88,543,124

VAC SOCIAL = 95,948,275PROMEDIO POBL. BENEFICIADA = 251,646

S./poblador beneficiado ICE = 381.3

Costos Incrementales Operación y

Mantenimiento (miles de S/.)

TOTAL COSTOS ( S/.)

Población Beneficiada

Incrementada

Población Beneficiada TOTAL

Inversión en Redes y Conexiones

(miles de S/.)



INDICE COSTO EFECTIVIDAD DEL SUBCOMPONENTE DE ALCANTARILLADO REDES


(A PRECIOS PRIVADOS)

Años

VAC = 89,685,037PROMEDIO POBL. BENEFICIADA = 251,646

INVERSION TOTALICE = 356.39

ALCANTARILLADO ESCENARIOS DE SENSIBILIDAD

0 79,413,429 79,413,429.4 16,725 Incremento en Costos de Inversión1 222,400 222,400.0 170,410 187,135 Incremento VAC POBL. BENEF. ICE2 928,520 928,520.0 15,626 202,761 0% 89,685,037 251,646 356.393 1,565,140 1,565,140.0 4,887 207,648 25% 111,994,332 251,646 445.04 137,610 137,610.0 5,021 212,669 50% 134,303,627 251,646 533.75 2,554,820 2,554,820.0 5,159 217,829 75% 156,612,922 251,646 622.46 2,617,370 2,617,370.0 5,303 223,131 100% 178,922,217 251,646 711.07 2,212,880 2,212,880.0 5,452 228,583 124% 201,231,512 251,646 799.7

8 294,680 294,680.0 5,607 234,190 149.25% 223,540,807 251,646 888.3

9 2,978,770 2,978,770.0 5,767 239,957

10 1,759,740 1,759,740.0 5,935 245,892

11 536,540 536,540.0 6,109 252,001

12 2,050,250 2,050,250.0 6,290 258,290 89,685,037 251,646 356.4

13 462,870 462,870.0 6,479 264,76914 1,135,630 1,135,630.0 6,676 271,44515 979,950 979,950.0 6,881 278,326

16 1,327,450 1,327,450.0 7,096 285,422 VAC POBL. BENEF. ICE

17 2,018,280 2,018,280.0 7,320 292,74218 593,530 593,530.0 7,555 300,297 vac privado

19 614,380 614,380.0 7,801 308,098

20 626,890 626,890.0 8,058 316,157

VAC PRIVADO = 89,685,037

PROM.POBL. BENEFICIADA = 251,646

S./poblador beneficiado ICE = 356.39COSTOS REFERENCIALES (ANEXO SNIP 8)Ampliación redes y conexiones de alcantarillado: US $ 282 888.30

104,404,239

Alternativa Seleccionada: Análisis de Sensibilidad en las Variables Principales

Inversión en Redes y Conexiones ( S/.) Operación Y

Mantenimiento ( S/.)

TOTAL COSTOS ( S/.)


Incrementada


TOTAL

10%

0.1

20%

0.2



Cuadro N° 2


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Años

Valor Actual

9%

0 0 25% 0 19,292,885 827,139 20,120,025 1.000 20,120,025 827,139 0

1 187,135 12,396,802 25% 9,297,601 456,000 9,455,283 9,911,283 0.917 9,092,920 8,674,572 8,529,909

2 202,761 13,547,866 25% 10,160,899 1,903,800 10,333,151 12,236,951 0.842 10,299,597 8,697,207 8,552,226

3 207,648 13,863,856 25% 10,397,892 3,209,100 10,574,254 13,783,354 0.772 10,643,278 8,165,264 8,029,081

4 212,669 14,189,939 25% 10,642,454 282,150 10,822,825 11,104,975 0.708 7,867,044 7,667,162 7,539,383

5 217,829 14,523,905 25% 10,892,929 5,238,300 11,077,715 16,316,015 0.650 10,604,290 7,199,755 7,079,656

6 223,131 14,920,628 25% 11,190,471 5,366,550 11,380,287 16,746,837 0.596 9,985,591 6,785,693 6,672,512

7 228,583 15,273,516 25% 11,455,137 4,537,200 11,649,546 16,186,746 0.547 8,854,705 6,372,701 6,266,352

8 234,190 15,637,441 25% 11,728,081 604,200 11,926,981 12,531,181 0.502 6,288,977 5,985,749 5,885,928

9 239,957 16,012,089 25% 12,009,066 6,107,550 12,212,542 18,320,092 0.460 8,435,079 5,622,993 5,529,308

10 245,892 16,396,197 25% 12,297,148 3,608,100 12,505,598 16,113,698 0.422 6,806,600 5,282,500 5,194,448

11 252,001 16,792,289 25% 12,594,217 1,100,100 12,590,276 13,690,376 0.388 5,305,470 4,879,146 4,880,673

12 258,290 17,199,734 25% 12,899,801 4,203,750 12,677,379 16,881,129 0.356 6,001,827 4,507,248 4,586,327

13 264,769 17,620,425 25% 13,215,318 949,050 12,767,155 13,716,205 0.326 4,473,933 4,164,373 4,310,555

14 271,445 18,052,783 25% 13,539,587 2,328,450 12,859,418 15,187,868 0.299 4,544,916 3,848,135 4,051,674

15 278,326 18,551,998 25% 13,913,999 2,009,250 12,966,020 14,975,270 0.275 4,111,281 3,559,666 3,819,922

16 285,422 19,012,108 25% 14,259,081 2,721,750 13,064,314 15,786,064 0.252 3,976,032 3,290,506 3,591,431

17 292,742 19,486,410 25% 14,614,807 4,138,200 13,165,716 17,303,916 0.231 3,998,471 3,042,244 3,377,090

18 300,297 19,975,533 25% 14,981,650 1,216,950 13,270,227 14,487,177 0.212 3,071,191 2,813,205 3,176,016

19 308,098 20,481,686 25% 15,361,264 1,259,700 13,378,281 14,637,981 0.194 2,846,936 2,601,938 2,987,607

20 316,157 21,004,237 25% 15,753,178 1,285,350 13,489,880 14,775,230 0.178 2,636,357 2,407,011 2,810,854

71,818,385 242,993,986 VALOR ACTUAL 149,964,522 106,394,207 106,870,951

CIP (I+ OM ) 149,964,522 '= S/ 1.40 por M3106,870,951

CIP ( OM ) 106,394,207 = S/ 1.00 por M3106,870,951

ANALISIS DE LA CAPACIDAD DE PAGO Y REQUERIMIENTOS DE SUBSIDIOSALTERNATIVA 2

COSTOS UNITARIOS/M3

Limite de Esta dentro Subsidio

Capacidad de Capacidad (S/mes)Pago (Soles)*** Pago ?? por conexión

Costo Unitario de O & M 1.00 19.05 38.75 SI 0.00

Costo Unitario de Inv + O & M 1.40 26.86 38.75 SI 0.00

** El consumo de 19.14 m3 corresponde al consumo/mes familia con micromediciòn segùn el estudio de demanda del caso

*** Límite de capacidad de pago / conexión: S/ 775 x 0.03 = S/ 38.75**** Límite de capacidad de pago / conexión: S/ m3 2.025

Población Total


% de Pérdidas

Consumo (m3/año)


privados (S/.)




Costos de Inversión OM Precios

Privados (Soles)

Precios Privados

Consumos (Soles)

Soles por M3

'Pago / conex./mes por consumo de 19.14

m3 (Soles)**



EVALUACION ECONOMICA DE SISTEMA DE AGUA POTABLEALTERNATIVA 2

1 2 3 4a 4b 4c 5a 5b 5c 6 7 8 9 10 11

Años

Nº Familias Conectadas al Servicio Beneficios Brutos (S/.año)

Antiguas Nuevas Total Antiguas Nuevas Total11%

0 5,002,426.03 0 -5,002,426 1.000 -5,002,426

1 187135 100.0% 3,423 38254 41677 6,221,612 62,216,777 68,438,388 227,612.49 12,396,802 6,230,495 61,980,281 0.901 55,838,091

2 202761 100.0% 3,423 41737 45160 6,221,612 67,881,571 74,103,182 950,282.14 13,547,866 6,862,584 66,290,316 0.812 53,802,708

3 207648 100.0% 3,423 42825 46248 6,221,612 69,651,107 75,872,719 1,601,822.88 13,863,856 7,036,106 67,234,790 0.731 49,161,499

4 212669 100.0% 3,423 43943 47366 6,221,612 71,469,436 77,691,048 140,835.23 14,189,939 7,215,169 70,335,044 0.659 46,331,872

5 217829 100.0% 3,423 45091 48514 6,221,612 73,336,558 79,558,169 2,614,698.46 14,523,905 7,398,561 69,544,910 0.593 41,271,519

6 223131 100.0% 3,423 46272 49695 6,221,612 75,257,350 81,478,962 2,678,714.47 14,920,628 7,616,416 71,183,832 0.535 38,057,783

7 228583 100.0% 3,423 47486 50909 6,221,612 77,231,815 83,453,427 2,264,744.26 15,273,516 7,810,199 73,378,484 0.482 35,343,364

8 234190 100.0% 3,423 48734 52157 6,221,612 79,261,578 85,483,189 301,586.55 15,637,441 8,010,043 77,171,560 0.434 33,486,785

9 239957 100.0% 3,423 50020 53443 6,221,612 81,353,144 87,574,755 3,048,584.76 16,012,089 8,215,775 76,310,396 0.391 29,831,624

10 245892 100.0% 3,423 51342 54765 6,221,612 83,503,261 89,724,873 1,800,983.81 16,396,197 8,426,702 79,497,187 0.352 27,997,675

11 252001 100.0% 3,423 52702 56125 6,221,612 85,715,182 91,936,793 549,115.13 16,792,289 8,426,702 82,960,976 0.317 26,322,133

12 258290 100.0% 3,423 54103 57526 6,221,612 87,993,785 94,215,397 2,098,302.62 17,199,734 8,426,702 83,690,392 0.286 23,922,131

13 264769 100.0% 3,423 55547 58970 6,221,612 90,342,325 96,563,936 473,718.49 17,620,425 8,426,702 87,663,516 0.258 22,574,605

14 271445 100.0% 3,423 57034 60457 6,221,612 92,760,800 98,982,411 1,162,246.27 18,052,783 8,426,702 89,393,463 0.232 20,738,821

15 278326 100.0% 3,423 58565 61988 6,221,612 95,250,837 101,472,449 1,002,917.53 18,551,998 8,426,702 92,042,829 0.209 19,237,351

16 285422 100.0% 3,423 60146 63569 6,221,612 97,822,195 104,043,807 1,358,562.04 19,012,108 8,426,702 94,258,543 0.188 17,748,149

17 292742 100.0% 3,423 61776 65199 6,221,612 100,473,247 106,694,859 2,065,583.33 19,486,410 8,426,702 96,202,573 0.170 16,319,094

18 300297 100.0% 3,423 63457 66880 6,221,612 103,207,246 109,428,858 607,440.83 19,975,533 8,426,702 100,394,715 0.153 15,342,539

19 308098 100.0% 3,423 65195 68618 6,221,612 106,033,951 112,255,562 628,779.50 20,481,686 8,426,702 103,200,081 0.138 14,208,343

20 316157 100.0% 3,423 66991 70414 6,221,612 108,954,987 115,176,599 641,582.70 21,004,237 448,461 114,086,555 0.124 14,150,601

Proyecto Rentable en Términos Sociales VAN SOCIAL 596,684,262

TIR SOCIAL 1245.54%

Población Total


(%)


sociales (S/.)

Producción de agua

(m3/año)




Factor de descuento

Valor actual del flujo neto a precios sociales



Cuadro N° 6

ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD DEL SISTEMA DE AGUA POTABLE

ALTERNATIVA 2

1 2 3 4a 4b 4c 5a 5b 5c 6 7 8 9 10 11 VAN (s) TIR (s)

Años

Nº Familias Conectadas al Servicio Beneficios Brutos (S/.año) 596,684,262 1245.54%

Antiguas Nuevas Total Antiguas Nuevas Total ESCENARIOS DE SENSIBILIDAD

11% Escen. 1.-Incremento de Costos de Inversión

0 5,002,426 0 -5,002,426 1.000 -5,002,426 Incremento VAN (s) TIR (s)

1 187135 100.0% 3423 38254 41677 6,221,612 62,216,777 68,438,388 227,612 12,396,802 6,230,495 61,980,281 0.901 55,838,091 0.00% 596,684,262 Err:504

2 202761 100.0% 3,423 41737 45160 6,221,612 67,881,571 74,103,182 950,282 13,547,866 6,862,584 66,290,316 0.812 53,802,708 641.0% 497,236,885 Err:504

3 207648 100.0% 3,423 42825 46248 6,221,612 69,651,107 75,872,719 1,601,823 13,863,856 7,036,106 67,234,790 0.731 49,161,499 1282.0% 397,789,508 Err:504

4 212669 100.0% 3,423 43943 47366 6,221,612 71,469,436 77,691,048 140,835 14,189,939 7,215,169 70,335,044 0.659 46,331,872 1923.0% 298,342,131 Err:504

5 217829 100.0% 3,423 45091 48514 6,221,612 73,336,558 79,558,169 2,614,698 14,523,905 7,398,561 69,544,910 0.593 41,271,519 2563.9% 198,894,754 Err:504

6 223131 100.0% 3,423 46272 49695 6,221,612 75,257,350 81,478,962 2,678,714 14,920,628 7,616,416 71,183,832 0.535 38,057,783 3204.9% 99,447,377 Err:504

7 228583 100.0% 3,423 47486 50909 6,221,612 77,231,815 83,453,427 2,264,744 15,273,516 7,810,199 73,378,484 0.482 35,343,364 3845.9% 0 11.0%

8 234190 100.0% 3,423 48734 52157 6,221,612 79,261,578 85,483,189 301,587 15,637,441 8,010,043 77,171,560 0.434 33,486,785 Escen. 2.- Disminución de Beneficios

9 239957 100.0% 3,423 50020 53443 6,221,612 81,353,144 87,574,755 3,048,585 16,012,089 8,215,775 76,310,396 0.391 29,831,624 Disminución VAN (f) TIR (f)

10 245892 100.0% 3,423 51342 54765 6,221,612 83,503,261 89,724,873 1,800,984 16,396,197 8,426,702 79,497,187 0.352 27,997,675 0.00% 596,684,262 Err:504

11 252001 100.0% 3,423 52702 56125 6,221,612 85,715,182 91,936,793 549,115 16,792,289 8,426,702 82,960,976 0.317 26,322,133 29.6% 397,789,508 Err:504

12 258290 100.0% 3,423 54103 57526 6,221,612 87,993,785 94,215,397 2,098,303 17,199,734 8,426,702 83,690,392 0.286 23,922,131 59.2% 198,894,754 Err:504

13 264769 100.0% 3,423 55547 58970 6,221,612 90,342,325 96,563,936 473,718 17,620,425 8,426,702 87,663,516 0.258 22,574,605 88.8% 0 11.0%

14 271445 100.0% 3,423 57034 60457 6,221,612 92,760,800 98,982,411 1,162,246 18,052,783 8,426,702 89,393,463 0.232 20,738,821 Escen. 3.- Incremento Costos de Oper. y Mant.

15 278326 100.0% 3,423 58565 61988 6,221,612 95,250,837 101,472,449 1,002,918 18,551,998 8,426,702 92,042,829 0.209 19,237,351 Incremento VAN (f) TIR (f)

16 285422 100.0% 3,423 60146 63569 6,221,612 97,822,195 104,043,807 1,358,562 19,012,108 8,426,702 94,258,543 0.188 17,748,149 0.00% 596,684,262 Err:504

17 292742 100.0% 3,423 61776 65199 6,221,612 100,473,247 106,694,859 2,065,583 19,486,410 8,426,702 96,202,573 0.170 16,319,094 143.4% 511,443,653 Err:504

18 300297 100.0% 3,423 63457 66880 6,221,612 103,207,246 109,428,858 607,441 19,975,533 8,426,702 100,394,715 0.153 15,342,539 286.8% 426,203,044 Err:504

19 308098 100.0% 3,423 65195 68618 6,221,612 106,033,951 112,255,562 628,779 20,481,686 8,426,702 103,200,081 0.138 14,208,343 430.2% 340,962,435 Err:504

20 316157 100.0% 3,423 66991 70414 6,221,612 108,954,987 115,176,599 641,583 21,004,237 448,461 114,086,555 0.124 14,150,601 573.5% 255,721,826 Err:504

671,647,588 15,514,774.4 59,448,552 716.9% 170,481,218 #VALUE!

860.3% 85,240,609 #VALUE!

Proyecto Rentable en Términos Sociales VAN SOCIAL 596,684,262 1003.7% 0 11.0%

10.03698561 TIR SOCIAL 1245.54% FUENTE: Elaboración del Consultor38.45910011 MAX INCR DE INVERSION 596,684,262 1245.54%

596684262 0.8883888999 MAX REDUCCION DE BENEFICIOS 596,684,262 VAN (f) TIR (f)

Cuadro Nº 6A


Población Total


(%)

Inversión Total a precios sociales

(S/.)





Factor de descuento Valor actual del

flujo neto a precios sociales



ALTERNATIVA UNICA(A PRECIOS SOCIALES)

Años

0 1,567,050.85 275,060 1,842,111 0 172,714

1 0.0 263,067 263,067 170,410 187,135

2 0.0 266,423 266,423 15,626 202,761

3 0.0 269,766 269,766 4,887 207,648

4 0.0 273,191 273,191 5,021 212,669

5 0.0 276,666 276,666 5,159 217,829

6 0.0 280,159 280,159 5,303 223,131

7 0.0 283,675 283,675 5,452 228,583

8 0.0 287,224 287,224 5,607 234,190

9 0.0 290,831 290,831 5,767 239,957

10 0.0 302,742 302,742 5,935 245,892

11 0.0 302,742 302,742 6,109 252,001

12 0.0 302,742 302,742 6,290 258,290

13 0.0 302,742 302,742 6,479 264,769

14 0.0 302,742 302,742 6,676 271,445

15 0.0 302,742 302,742 6,881 278,326

16 0.0 302,742 302,742 7,096 285,422

17 0.0 302,742 302,742 7,320 292,742

18 0.0 302,742 302,742 7,555 300,297

19 0.0 302,742 302,742 7,801 308,098

20 0.0 302,742 302,742 8,058 316,157

0

VAC 4,096,024PROMEDIO POBL. BENEFICIADA 216,514

ICE 18.9

INDICE COSTO EFECTIVIDAD DEL SUBCOMPONENTE DE ALCANTARILLADO

PLANTA DE TRATAMIENTO

Operación Y Mantenimiento (miles de S/.)

TOTAL COSTOS ( S/.)


Incrementada

Población Beneficiada TOTALINVERSION

TOTAL



INDICE COSTO EFECTIVIDAD DEL SUBCOMPONENTE DE ALCANTARILLADO PLANTA DE TRATAMIENTO ALTERNATIVA UNICA

0.0% 0.0%

Años

0 1567050.9 275,059.8 1,842,110.7 0 0 172,714

1 0.0 263,066.6 263,066.6 #REF! 14,422 187,135

2 0.0 266,423.0 266,423.0 #REF! 15,626 202,761

3 0.0 269,766.0 269,766.0 #REF! 4,887 207,648

4 0.0 273,190.7 273,190.7 #REF! 5,021 212,669

5 0.0 276,666.1 276,666.1 #REF! 5,159 217,829

6 0.0 280,159.3 280,159.3 #REF! 5,303 223,131

7 0.0 283,675.3 283,675.3 #REF! 5,452 228,583

8 0.0 287,223.7 287,223.7 #REF! 5,607 234,190

9 0.0 290,830.9 290,830.9 #REF! 5,767 239,957

10 0.0 302,742.2 302,742.2 #REF! 5,935 245,892

11 0.0 302,742.2 302,742.2 0 0 245,892

12 0.0 302,742.2 302,742.2 0 0 245,892

13 0.0 302,742.2 302,742.2 0 0 245,892

14 0.0 302,742.2 302,742.2 0 0 245,892

15 0.0 302,742.2 302,742.2 0 0 245,892

16 0.0 302,742.2 302,742.2 0 0 245,892

17 0.0 302,742.2 302,742.2 0 0 245,892

18 0.0 302,742.2 302,742.2 0 0 245,892

19 0.0 302,742.2 302,742.2 0 0 245,892

20 0.0 302,742.2 302,742.2 0 0 245,8921,567,051

COSTOS REFERENCIALES (ANEXO SNIP 13) A precios Privas A precios SocialesAmpliación redes y conexiones de alcantarillado: US $ 185 629 504.458 Soles VAC = 4,096,024Ampliación de plantas de trtamiento de aguas servidas: US $ 90 306 247.554 Soles PROMEDIO POBL. BENEFICIADA = 216,514

S./poblador beneficiado ICE = 18.9

Inversión en Redes y Conexiones (miles de S/.) Operación Y

Mantenimiento (miles de S/.)

TOTAL COSTOS (miles de S/.)

Nuevas Conexiones


Incrementada


TOTALINVERSION

TOTAL



VAC = 4,096,024

PROMEDIO POBL. BENEFICIADA = 216,514

ICE = 18.9

ALCANTARILLADO ESCENARIOS DE SENSIBILIDAD

Incremento en Costos de Inversión

VAC POBL. BENEF. ICE

10% 4,252,729 57,102 74.5

50% 4,879,549 57,102 85.5

100% 5,663,075 57,102 99.2

150% 6,446,600 57,102 112.9

300% 8,797,176 57,102 154.1

600% 13,498,329 57,102 236.4

640.5% 14,132,985 57,102 247.5

Incremento en Costos de O y M


10% 4,321,415 57,102 75.7

50% 5,222,980 57,102 91.5

100% 6,349,937 57,102 111.2

150% 7,476,893 57,102 130.9

200% 8,603,850 57,102 150.7

400% 13,111,676 57,102 229.6

445.4% 14,134,953 57,102 247.5

4,096,024 216,514 18.9



Porcentaje de Incremento

Porcentaje de Incremento



Consorcio Tres C

Cuadro N°27

ANALISIS DE RIESGO A PRECIOS SOCIALES - ALTERNATIVA N°1

FLUJO DE BENEFICIOS Y COSTOS DEL PROYECTO

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

A. Total de Beneficios 0 68,438,388 74,103,182 75,872,719 77,691,048 79,558,169 81,478,962 83,453,427 85,483,189 87,574,755 89,724,873 91,936,793 94,215,397 96,563,936 98,982,411 101,472,449 104,043,807

B. Total de costos de inversión 61,142,318 226,740 946,638 1,595,681 140,295 2,604,673 2,668,443 2,256,060 300,430 3,036,895 1,794,078 547,010 2,090,257 0 0 0 0

C. Total de costos de operación y manten incr. 0 6,230,495 6,862,584 7,036,106 7,215,169 7,398,561 7,616,416 7,810,199 8,010,043 8,215,775 8,426,702 8,426,702 8,426,702 8,426,702 8,426,702 8,426,702 8,426,702

Costos de Operación y Mantenimiento 0 6,230,495 6,862,584 7,036,106 7,215,169 7,398,561 7,616,416 7,810,199 8,010,043 8,215,775 8,426,702 8,426,702 8,426,702 8,426,702 8,426,702 8,426,702 8,426,702

Flujo de caja social (A - B - C ) -61,142,318 61,981,154 66,293,960 67,240,932 70,335,584 69,554,935 71,194,103 73,387,168 77,172,716 76,322,085 79,504,092 82,963,082 83,698,438 88,137,234 90,555,709 93,045,747 95,617,105

Factor de Actualización 1.000 0.877 0.769 0.675 0.592 0.519 0.456 0.400 0.351 0.308 0.270 0.237 0.208 0.182 0.160 0.140 0.123

Tasa de descuento 0.14

VP de los flujos - 61,142,318 54,369,433 51,011,049 45,385,714 41,644,312 36,124,654 32,435,076 29,328,251 27,053,595 23,469,647 21,445,737 19,630,507 17,372,373 16,047,092 14,462,651 13,035,382 11,750,544

VAN 393,423,698

TIR 105.8%

ANALISIS DE RIESGO

ESPERANZA, DESVIACION ESTANDAR Y COEFICIENTE DE VARIABILIDAD

SIMULACIÓN DE MONTECARLO

Probabilidad de ocurrenciaincremento en costos

30% 50% 20%Incremento de nivel de inversion 8% 10% 6%Incremento en costos de O y M 8% 10% 4%

INCREMENTO DE NIVEL DE INVERSION

% DE INCREMENTO Numeros representativos

8% 0.30 0.30 0 2910% 0.50 0.80 30 796% 0.20 1.00 80 99

INCREMENTO COSTOS DE OPERACIÓN Y MANTENIMIENTO


8% 0.30 0.3 0 2910% 0.50 0.8 30 794% 0.20 1 80 99

COSTOS0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Inversión -61,142,318 -226,740 -946,638 -1,595,681 -140,295 -2,604,673 -2,668,443 -2,256,060 -300,430 -3,036,895 -1,794,078 -547,010 -2,090,257 0 0 0 0Costos de operación y mantenimiento 0 -6,230,495 -6,862,584 -7,036,106 -7,215,169 -7,398,561 -7,616,416 -7,810,199 -8,010,043 -8,215,775 -8,426,702 -8,426,702 -8,426,702 -8,426,702 -8,426,702 -8,426,702 -8,426,702

-61,142,318 -6,457,235 -7,809,223 -8,631,787 -7,355,464 -10,003,234 -10,284,859 -10,066,259 -8,310,473 -11,252,670 -10,220,780 -8,973,712 -10,516,959 -8,426,702 -8,426,702 -8,426,702 -8,426,702

Distribución de Probabilidad

Probabilidad Acumulada





Consorcio Tres C

Cuadro N°28

ANALISIS DE RIESGO SIMULACIÓN DE MONTECARLO A PRECIOS SOCIALES - ALTERNATIVA N° 120

Nº Experimento

% Increm. Inversión % Inc.P:C.Agua % Inc. Costos Oper. Comerc.

COSTOS AÑO 0 COSTOS AÑO 1 COSTOS AÑO 2 COSTOS AÑO 3 COSTOS AÑO 4 COSTOS AÑO 5 COSTOS AÑO 6 COSTOS AÑO 7 COSTOS AÑO 8 COSTOS AÑO 9N. Aleat Valor Nº Aleator Valor Nº Aleator Valor

1 35 10% 9 8% 1 0% -67,256,550 -6,978,348 -8,452,893 -9,354,243 -7,946,707 -10,855,586 -11,161,016 -10,916,681 -8,981,319 -12,213,622 -11,074,3242 31 10% 70 10% 43 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,8583 93 6% 99 4% 75 0% -64,810,857 -6,720,059 -8,140,524 -9,008,972 -7,652,488 -10,455,457 -10,749,622 -10,514,031 -8,648,900 -11,763,515 -10,665,4934 92 6% 16 8% 94 0% -64,810,857 -6,969,279 -8,415,028 -9,290,416 -7,941,095 -10,751,399 -11,054,279 -10,826,438 -8,969,302 -12,092,146 -11,002,5615 11 8% 38 10% 7 0% -66,033,704 -7,098,423 -8,571,212 -9,463,052 -8,088,204 -10,951,464 -11,259,976 -11,027,764 -9,135,511 -12,317,199 -11,206,9776 90 6% 87 4% 40 0% -64,810,857 -6,720,059 -8,140,524 -9,008,972 -7,652,488 -10,455,457 -10,749,622 -10,514,031 -8,648,900 -11,763,515 -10,665,4937 34 10% 64 10% 34 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,8588 59 10% 43 10% 85 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,8589 87 6% 88 4% 96 0% -64,810,857 -6,720,059 -8,140,524 -9,008,972 -7,652,488 -10,455,457 -10,749,622 -10,514,031 -8,648,900 -11,763,515 -10,665,49310 23 8% 71 10% 8 0% -66,033,704 -7,098,423 -8,571,212 -9,463,052 -8,088,204 -10,951,464 -11,259,976 -11,027,764 -9,135,511 -12,317,199 -11,206,97711 63 10% 86 4% 18 0% -67,256,550 -6,729,128 -8,178,390 -9,072,799 -7,658,100 -10,559,644 -10,856,360 -10,604,273 -8,660,918 -11,884,991 -10,737,25612 40 10% 67 10% 14 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85813 50 10% 83 4% 31 0% -67,256,550 -6,729,128 -8,178,390 -9,072,799 -7,658,100 -10,559,644 -10,856,360 -10,604,273 -8,660,918 -11,884,991 -10,737,25614 95 6% 5 8% 22 0% -64,810,857 -6,969,279 -8,415,028 -9,290,416 -7,941,095 -10,751,399 -11,054,279 -10,826,438 -8,969,302 -12,092,146 -11,002,56115 21 8% 23 8% 96 0% -66,033,704 -6,973,813 -8,433,960 -9,322,330 -7,943,901 -10,803,493 -11,107,648 -10,871,560 -8,975,311 -12,152,884 -11,038,44316 14 8% 18 8% 27 0% -66,033,704 -6,973,813 -8,433,960 -9,322,330 -7,943,901 -10,803,493 -11,107,648 -10,871,560 -8,975,311 -12,152,884 -11,038,44317 80 6% 4 8% 37 0% -64,810,857 -6,969,279 -8,415,028 -9,290,416 -7,941,095 -10,751,399 -11,054,279 -10,826,438 -8,969,302 -12,092,146 -11,002,56118 29 8% 83 4% 17 0% -66,033,704 -6,724,594 -8,159,457 -9,040,885 -7,655,294 -10,507,550 -10,802,991 -10,559,152 -8,654,909 -11,824,253 -10,701,37519 41 10% 71 10% 94 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85820 57 10% 90 4% 82 0% -67,256,550 -6,729,128 -8,178,390 -9,072,799 -7,658,100 -10,559,644 -10,856,360 -10,604,273 -8,660,918 -11,884,991 -10,737,25621 23 8% 83 4% 39 0% -66,033,704 -6,724,594 -8,159,457 -9,040,885 -7,655,294 -10,507,550 -10,802,991 -10,559,152 -8,654,909 -11,824,253 -10,701,37522 2 8% 40 10% 86 0% -66,033,704 -7,098,423 -8,571,212 -9,463,052 -8,088,204 -10,951,464 -11,259,976 -11,027,764 -9,135,511 -12,317,199 -11,206,97723 1 8% 79 10% 5 0% -66,033,704 -7,098,423 -8,571,212 -9,463,052 -8,088,204 -10,951,464 -11,259,976 -11,027,764 -9,135,511 -12,317,199 -11,206,97724 95 6% 76 10% 2 0% -64,810,857 -7,093,889 -8,552,279 -9,431,138 -8,085,399 -10,899,371 -11,206,607 -10,982,642 -9,129,503 -12,256,461 -11,171,09525 91 6% 56 10% 5 0% -64,810,857 -7,093,889 -8,552,279 -9,431,138 -8,085,399 -10,899,371 -11,206,607 -10,982,642 -9,129,503 -12,256,461 -11,171,09526 12 8% 93 4% 67 0% -66,033,704 -6,724,594 -8,159,457 -9,040,885 -7,655,294 -10,507,550 -10,802,991 -10,559,152 -8,654,909 -11,824,253 -10,701,37527 92 6% 90 4% 56 0% -64,810,857 -6,720,059 -8,140,524 -9,008,972 -7,652,488 -10,455,457 -10,749,622 -10,514,031 -8,648,900 -11,763,515 -10,665,49328 95 6% 46 10% 38 0% -64,810,857 -7,093,889 -8,552,279 -9,431,138 -8,085,399 -10,899,371 -11,206,607 -10,982,642 -9,129,503 -12,256,461 -11,171,09529 11 8% 95 4% 36 0% -66,033,704 -6,724,594 -8,159,457 -9,040,885 -7,655,294 -10,507,550 -10,802,991 -10,559,152 -8,654,909 -11,824,253 -10,701,37530 60 10% 71 10% 31 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85831 80 6% 44 10% 22 0% -64,810,857 -7,093,889 -8,552,279 -9,431,138 -8,085,399 -10,899,371 -11,206,607 -10,982,642 -9,129,503 -12,256,461 -11,171,09532 63 10% 83 4% 16 0% -67,256,550 -6,729,128 -8,178,390 -9,072,799 -7,658,100 -10,559,644 -10,856,360 -10,604,273 -8,660,918 -11,884,991 -10,737,25633 50 10% 20 8% 98 0% -67,256,550 -6,978,348 -8,452,893 -9,354,243 -7,946,707 -10,855,586 -11,161,016 -10,916,681 -8,981,319 -12,213,622 -11,074,32434 64 10% 45 10% 15 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85835 36 10% 40 10% 17 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85836 70 10% 42 10% 19 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85837 80 6% 99 4% 58 0% -64,810,857 -6,720,059 -8,140,524 -9,008,972 -7,652,488 -10,455,457 -10,749,622 -10,514,031 -8,648,900 -11,763,515 -10,665,49338 62 10% 64 10% 15 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85839 82 6% 73 10% 24 0% -64,810,857 -7,093,889 -8,552,279 -9,431,138 -8,085,399 -10,899,371 -11,206,607 -10,982,642 -9,129,503 -12,256,461 -11,171,09540 19 8% 78 10% 45 0% -66,033,704 -7,098,423 -8,571,212 -9,463,052 -8,088,204 -10,951,464 -11,259,976 -11,027,764 -9,135,511 -12,317,199 -11,206,97741 14 8% 25 8% 33 0% -66,033,704 -6,973,813 -8,433,960 -9,322,330 -7,943,901 -10,803,493 -11,107,648 -10,871,560 -8,975,311 -12,152,884 -11,038,44342 28 8% 79 10% 49 0% -66,033,704 -7,098,423 -8,571,212 -9,463,052 -8,088,204 -10,951,464 -11,259,976 -11,027,764 -9,135,511 -12,317,199 -11,206,97743 73 10% 5 8% 13 0% -67,256,550 -6,978,348 -8,452,893 -9,354,243 -7,946,707 -10,855,586 -11,161,016 -10,916,681 -8,981,319 -12,213,622 -11,074,32444 50 10% 74 10% 21 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85845 26 8% 20 8% 92 0% -66,033,704 -6,973,813 -8,433,960 -9,322,330 -7,943,901 -10,803,493 -11,107,648 -10,871,560 -8,975,311 -12,152,884 -11,038,44346 20 8% 86 4% 77 0% -66,033,704 -6,724,594 -8,159,457 -9,040,885 -7,655,294 -10,507,550 -10,802,991 -10,559,152 -8,654,909 -11,824,253 -10,701,37547 35 10% 48 10% 92 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85848 85 6% 6 8% 82 0% -64,810,857 -6,969,279 -8,415,028 -9,290,416 -7,941,095 -10,751,399 -11,054,279 -10,826,438 -8,969,302 -12,092,146 -11,002,56149 8 8% 67 10% 17 0% -66,033,704 -7,098,423 -8,571,212 -9,463,052 -8,088,204 -10,951,464 -11,259,976 -11,027,764 -9,135,511 -12,317,199 -11,206,97750 55 10% 49 10% 94 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85851 17 8% 23 8% 37 0% -66,033,704 -6,973,813 -8,433,960 -9,322,330 -7,943,901 -10,803,493 -11,107,648 -10,871,560 -8,975,311 -12,152,884 -11,038,44352 81 6% 30 10% 43 0% -64,810,857 -7,093,889 -8,552,279 -9,431,138 -8,085,399 -10,899,371 -11,206,607 -10,982,642 -9,129,503 -12,256,461 -11,171,09553 1 8% 14 8% 74 0% -66,033,704 -6,973,813 -8,433,960 -9,322,330 -7,943,901 -10,803,493 -11,107,648 -10,871,560 -8,975,311 -12,152,884 -11,038,44354 51 10% 44 10% 48 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85855 56 10% 88 4% 2 0% -67,256,550 -6,729,128 -8,178,390 -9,072,799 -7,658,100 -10,559,644 -10,856,360 -10,604,273 -8,660,918 -11,884,991 -10,737,25656 33 10% 31 10% 79 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85857 73 10% 36 10% 36 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85858 68 10% 40 10% 65 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85859 90 6% 63 10% 20 0% -64,810,857 -7,093,889 -8,552,279 -9,431,138 -8,085,399 -10,899,371 -11,206,607 -10,982,642 -9,129,503 -12,256,461 -11,171,09560 64 10% 81 4% 23 0% -67,256,550 -6,729,128 -8,178,390 -9,072,799 -7,658,100 -10,559,644 -10,856,360 -10,604,273 -8,660,918 -11,884,991 -10,737,25661 29 8% 11 8% 23 0% -66,033,704 -6,973,813 -8,433,960 -9,322,330 -7,943,901 -10,803,493 -11,107,648 -10,871,560 -8,975,311 -12,152,884 -11,038,44362 61 10% 92 4% 72 0% -67,256,550 -6,729,128 -8,178,390 -9,072,799 -7,658,100 -10,559,644 -10,856,360 -10,604,273 -8,660,918 -11,884,991 -10,737,25663 62 10% 16 8% 22 0% -67,256,550 -6,978,348 -8,452,893 -9,354,243 -7,946,707 -10,855,586 -11,161,016 -10,916,681 -8,981,319 -12,213,622 -11,074,32464 34 10% 45 10% 18 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85865 58 10% 17 8% 31 0% -67,256,550 -6,978,348 -8,452,893 -9,354,243 -7,946,707 -10,855,586 -11,161,016 -10,916,681 -8,981,319 -12,213,622 -11,074,32466 84 6% 54 10% 29 0% -64,810,857 -7,093,889 -8,552,279 -9,431,138 -8,085,399 -10,899,371 -11,206,607 -10,982,642 -9,129,503 -12,256,461 -11,171,09567 57 10% 58 10% 33 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85868 80 6% 15 8% 1 0% -64,810,857 -6,969,279 -8,415,028 -9,290,416 -7,941,095 -10,751,399 -11,054,279 -10,826,438 -8,969,302 -12,092,146 -11,002,56169 76 10% 39 10% 24 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85870 26 8% 34 10% 24 0% -66,033,704 -7,098,423 -8,571,212 -9,463,052 -8,088,204 -10,951,464 -11,259,976 -11,027,764 -9,135,511 -12,317,199 -11,206,97771 6 8% 17 8% 65 0% -66,033,704 -6,973,813 -8,433,960 -9,322,330 -7,943,901 -10,803,493 -11,107,648 -10,871,560 -8,975,311 -12,152,884 -11,038,44372 79 10% 69 10% 60 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85873 3 8% 19 8% 40 0% -66,033,704 -6,973,813 -8,433,960 -9,322,330 -7,943,901 -10,803,493 -11,107,648 -10,871,560 -8,975,311 -12,152,884 -11,038,44374 10 8% 83 4% 77 0% -66,033,704 -6,724,594 -8,159,457 -9,040,885 -7,655,294 -10,507,550 -10,802,991 -10,559,152 -8,654,909 -11,824,253 -10,701,37575 49 10% 96 4% 21 0% -67,256,550 -6,729,128 -8,178,390 -9,072,799 -7,658,100 -10,559,644 -10,856,360 -10,604,273 -8,660,918 -11,884,991 -10,737,25676 83 6% 54 10% 77 0% -64,810,857 -7,093,889 -8,552,279 -9,431,138 -8,085,399 -10,899,371 -11,206,607 -10,982,642 -9,129,503 -12,256,461 -11,171,09577 22 8% 58 10% 13 0% -66,033,704 -7,098,423 -8,571,212 -9,463,052 -8,088,204 -10,951,464 -11,259,976 -11,027,764 -9,135,511 -12,317,199 -11,206,97778 44 10% 71 10% 50 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85879 33 10% 10 8% 75 0% -67,256,550 -6,978,348 -8,452,893 -9,354,243 -7,946,707 -10,855,586 -11,161,016 -10,916,681 -8,981,319 -12,213,622 -11,074,32480 63 10% 43 10% 95 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85881 41 10% 22 8% 79 0% -67,256,550 -6,978,348 -8,452,893 -9,354,243 -7,946,707 -10,855,586 -11,161,016 -10,916,681 -8,981,319 -12,213,622 -11,074,32482 91 6% 48 10% 43 0% -64,810,857 -7,093,889 -8,552,279 -9,431,138 -8,085,399 -10,899,371 -11,206,607 -10,982,642 -9,129,503 -12,256,461 -11,171,09583 35 10% 75 10% 97 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85884 50 10% 8 8% 98 0% -67,256,550 -6,978,348 -8,452,893 -9,354,243 -7,946,707 -10,855,586 -11,161,016 -10,916,681 -8,981,319 -12,213,622 -11,074,32485 50 10% 65 10% 88 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85886 56 10% 40 10% 73 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85887 84 6% 45 10% 52 0% -64,810,857 -7,093,889 -8,552,279 -9,431,138 -8,085,399 -10,899,371 -11,206,607 -10,982,642 -9,129,503 -12,256,461 -11,171,09588 26 8% 72 10% 18 0% -66,033,704 -7,098,423 -8,571,212 -9,463,052 -8,088,204 -10,951,464 -11,259,976 -11,027,764 -9,135,511 -12,317,199 -11,206,97789 87 6% 76 10% 82 0% -64,810,857 -7,093,889 -8,552,279 -9,431,138 -8,085,399 -10,899,371 -11,206,607 -10,982,642 -9,129,503 -12,256,461 -11,171,09590 45 10% 4 8% 17 0% -67,256,550 -6,978,348 -8,452,893 -9,354,243 -7,946,707 -10,855,586 -11,161,016 -10,916,681 -8,981,319 -12,213,622 -11,074,32491 13 8% 45 10% 64 0% -66,033,704 -7,098,423 -8,571,212 -9,463,052 -8,088,204 -10,951,464 -11,259,976 -11,027,764 -9,135,511 -12,317,199 -11,206,97792 3 8% 29 8% 25 0% -66,033,704 -6,973,813 -8,433,960 -9,322,330 -7,943,901 -10,803,493 -11,107,648 -10,871,560 -8,975,311 -12,152,884 -11,038,44393 51 10% 71 10% 5 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85894 85 6% 38 10% 94 0% -64,810,857 -7,093,889 -8,552,279 -9,431,138 -8,085,399 -10,899,371 -11,206,607 -10,982,642 -9,129,503 -12,256,461 -11,171,09595 83 6% 41 10% 55 0% -64,810,857 -7,093,889 -8,552,279 -9,431,138 -8,085,399 -10,899,371 -11,206,607 -10,982,642 -9,129,503 -12,256,461 -11,171,09596 30 10% 41 10% 76 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85897 86 6% 52 10% 34 0% -64,810,857 -7,093,889 -8,552,279 -9,431,138 -8,085,399 -10,899,371 -11,206,607 -10,982,642 -9,129,503 -12,256,461 -11,171,09598 51 10% 39 10% 71 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,85899 19 8% 22 8% 52 0% -66,033,704 -6,973,813 -8,433,960 -9,322,330 -7,943,901 -10,803,493 -11,107,648 -10,871,560 -8,975,311 -12,152,884 -11,038,443100 59 10% 41 10% 33 0% -67,256,550 -7,102,958 -8,590,145 -9,494,965 -8,091,010 -11,003,557 -11,313,345 -11,072,885 -9,141,520 -12,377,937 -11,242,858

TABLA DE FRECUENCIAS

Limite Inferior Límite Superior Marca de Clase Frecuencia Probabilidad Promedio del Rango

334,982,752 339,851,429 337,417,090 98 0.98 98 330,668,748 ### ### n=numero de datos 100339,851,429 344,720,106 342,285,767 0 0 98 0 ### 0.00 rango=Lmax-Lmin 4,868,677344,720,106 349,588,783 347,154,445 0 0 98 0 ### 0.00 c=numero de intervalos 5349,588,783 354,457,460 352,023,122 0 0 98 0 ### 0.00 amplitud= 973735.431354,457,460 359,326,137 356,891,799 0 0 98 0 ### 0.00

98 330,668,748 6.02818082E+17 ###

ESPERANZA VAN 330,668,748DESVIACION ESTANDAR 335,708,638COEF.DE VARIABILIDAD -101.524

INTERVALO AL 95% DE CONFIANZAVAN 1 -327,320,182 LIMITE INFERIORVAN 2 988,657,679 LIMITE SUPERIOR

COSTOS AÑO 10

Frecuencia Acumulada

(Marca Clase-Van)2 F*(Marca Clase-Van)2



Consorcio Tres C

Cuadro N°28

ANALISIS DE RIESGO SIMULACIÓN DE MONTECARLO A PRECIOS SOCIALES - ALTERNATIVA N° 1

FLUJOS DE CAJA ANUALESVAN

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-9,702,549 -11,400,121 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -67,256,550 61,460,040 65,650,289 66,518,476 69,744,341 68,702,583 70,317,946 72,536,746 76,501,870 75,361,134 78,650,548 82,234,245 82,815,276 87,463,098 89,881,573 92,371,611 94,942,968 335,801,127-9,871,083 -11,568,655 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -67,256,550 61,335,430 65,513,037 66,377,754 69,600,037 68,554,612 70,165,617 72,380,542 76,341,669 75,196,818 78,482,014 82,065,710 82,646,742 87,294,564 89,713,039 92,203,076 94,774,434 334,982,752-9,343,600 -10,979,443 -8,763,770 -8,763,770 -8,763,770 -8,763,770 -64,810,857 61,718,329 65,962,658 66,863,747 70,038,559 69,102,712 70,729,340 72,939,396 76,834,289 75,811,241 79,059,380 82,593,193 83,235,954 87,800,166 90,218,641 92,708,679 95,280,036 339,851,429-9,680,668 -11,316,511 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -64,810,857 61,469,110 65,688,155 66,582,303 69,749,953 68,806,770 70,424,683 72,626,988 76,513,887 75,482,610 78,722,311 82,256,125 82,898,886 87,463,098 89,881,573 92,371,611 94,942,968 338,214,679-9,860,143 -11,526,850 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -66,033,704 61,339,965 65,531,970 66,409,667 69,602,843 68,606,705 70,218,986 72,425,663 76,347,678 75,257,556 78,517,896 82,076,651 82,688,547 87,294,564 89,713,039 92,203,076 94,774,434 336,189,528-9,343,600 -10,979,443 -8,763,770 -8,763,770 -8,763,770 -8,763,770 -64,810,857 61,718,329 65,962,658 66,863,747 70,038,559 69,102,712 70,729,340 72,939,396 76,834,289 75,811,241 79,059,380 82,593,193 83,235,954 87,800,166 90,218,641 92,708,679 95,280,036 339,851,429-9,871,083 -11,568,655 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -67,256,550 61,335,430 65,513,037 66,377,754 69,600,037 68,554,612 70,165,617 72,380,542 76,341,669 75,196,818 78,482,014 82,065,710 82,646,742 87,294,564 89,713,039 92,203,076 94,774,434 334,982,752-9,871,083 -11,568,655 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -67,256,550 61,335,430 65,513,037 66,377,754 69,600,037 68,554,612 70,165,617 72,380,542 76,341,669 75,196,818 78,482,014 82,065,710 82,646,742 87,294,564 89,713,039 92,203,076 94,774,434 334,982,752-9,343,600 -10,979,443 -8,763,770 -8,763,770 -8,763,770 -8,763,770 -64,810,857 61,718,329 65,962,658 66,863,747 70,038,559 69,102,712 70,729,340 72,939,396 76,834,289 75,811,241 79,059,380 82,593,193 83,235,954 87,800,166 90,218,641 92,708,679 95,280,036 339,851,429-9,860,143 -11,526,850 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -66,033,704 61,339,965 65,531,970 66,409,667 69,602,843 68,606,705 70,218,986 72,425,663 76,347,678 75,257,556 78,517,896 82,076,651 82,688,547 87,294,564 89,713,039 92,203,076 94,774,434 336,189,528-9,365,481 -11,063,053 -8,763,770 -8,763,770 -8,763,770 -8,763,770 -67,256,550 61,709,260 65,924,792 66,799,920 70,032,948 68,998,525 70,622,602 72,849,154 76,822,272 75,689,765 78,987,616 82,571,313 83,152,344 87,800,166 90,218,641 92,708,679 95,280,036 337,437,877-9,871,083 -11,568,655 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -67,256,550 61,335,430 65,513,037 66,377,754 69,600,037 68,554,612 70,165,617 72,380,542 76,341,669 75,196,818 78,482,014 82,065,710 82,646,742 87,294,564 89,713,039 92,203,076 94,774,434 334,982,752-9,365,481 -11,063,053 -8,763,770 -8,763,770 -8,763,770 -8,763,770 -67,256,550 61,709,260 65,924,792 66,799,920 70,032,948 68,998,525 70,622,602 72,849,154 76,822,272 75,689,765 78,987,616 82,571,313 83,152,344 87,800,166 90,218,641 92,708,679 95,280,036 337,437,877-9,680,668 -11,316,511 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -64,810,857 61,469,110 65,688,155 66,582,303 69,749,953 68,806,770 70,424,683 72,626,988 76,513,887 75,482,610 78,722,311 82,256,125 82,898,886 87,463,098 89,881,573 92,371,611 94,942,968 338,214,679-9,691,609 -11,358,316 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -66,033,704 61,464,575 65,669,222 66,550,389 69,747,147 68,754,676 70,371,315 72,581,867 76,507,879 75,421,872 78,686,430 82,245,185 82,857,081 87,463,098 89,881,573 92,371,611 94,942,968 337,007,903-9,691,609 -11,358,316 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -66,033,704 61,464,575 65,669,222 66,550,389 69,747,147 68,754,676 70,371,315 72,581,867 76,507,879 75,421,872 78,686,430 82,245,185 82,857,081 87,463,098 89,881,573 92,371,611 94,942,968 337,007,903-9,680,668 -11,316,511 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -64,810,857 61,469,110 65,688,155 66,582,303 69,749,953 68,806,770 70,424,683 72,626,988 76,513,887 75,482,610 78,722,311 82,256,125 82,898,886 87,463,098 89,881,573 92,371,611 94,942,968 338,214,679-9,354,540 -11,021,248 -8,763,770 -8,763,770 -8,763,770 -8,763,770 -66,033,704 61,713,795 65,943,725 66,831,834 70,035,754 69,050,619 70,675,971 72,894,275 76,828,280 75,750,503 79,023,498 82,582,253 83,194,149 87,800,166 90,218,641 92,708,679 95,280,036 338,644,653-9,871,083 -11,568,655 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -67,256,550 61,335,430 65,513,037 66,377,754 69,600,037 68,554,612 70,165,617 72,380,542 76,341,669 75,196,818 78,482,014 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68,606,705 70,218,986 72,425,663 76,347,678 75,257,556 78,517,896 82,076,651 82,688,547 87,294,564 89,713,039 92,203,076 94,774,434 336,189,528-9,849,202 -11,485,045 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -64,810,857 61,344,500 65,550,903 66,441,581 69,605,649 68,658,799 70,272,355 72,470,784 76,353,686 75,318,294 78,553,777 82,087,591 82,730,352 87,294,564 89,713,039 92,203,076 94,774,434 337,396,304-9,849,202 -11,485,045 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -64,810,857 61,344,500 65,550,903 66,441,581 69,605,649 68,658,799 70,272,355 72,470,784 76,353,686 75,318,294 78,553,777 82,087,591 82,730,352 87,294,564 89,713,039 92,203,076 94,774,434 337,396,304-9,354,540 -11,021,248 -8,763,770 -8,763,770 -8,763,770 -8,763,770 -66,033,704 61,713,795 65,943,725 66,831,834 70,035,754 69,050,619 70,675,971 72,894,275 76,828,280 75,750,503 79,023,498 82,582,253 83,194,149 87,800,166 90,218,641 92,708,679 95,280,036 338,644,653-9,343,600 -10,979,443 -8,763,770 -8,763,770 -8,763,770 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82,234,245 82,815,276 87,463,098 89,881,573 92,371,611 94,942,968 335,801,127-9,871,083 -11,568,655 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -67,256,550 61,335,430 65,513,037 66,377,754 69,600,037 68,554,612 70,165,617 72,380,542 76,341,669 75,196,818 78,482,014 82,065,710 82,646,742 87,294,564 89,713,039 92,203,076 94,774,434 334,982,752-9,702,549 -11,400,121 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -67,256,550 61,460,040 65,650,289 66,518,476 69,744,341 68,702,583 70,317,946 72,536,746 76,501,870 75,361,134 78,650,548 82,234,245 82,815,276 87,463,098 89,881,573 92,371,611 94,942,968 335,801,127-9,849,202 -11,485,045 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -64,810,857 61,344,500 65,550,903 66,441,581 69,605,649 68,658,799 70,272,355 72,470,784 76,353,686 75,318,294 78,553,777 82,087,591 82,730,352 87,294,564 89,713,039 92,203,076 94,774,434 337,396,304-9,871,083 -11,568,655 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -67,256,550 61,335,430 65,513,037 66,377,754 69,600,037 68,554,612 70,165,617 72,380,542 76,341,669 75,196,818 78,482,014 82,065,710 82,646,742 87,294,564 89,713,039 92,203,076 94,774,434 334,982,752-9,702,549 -11,400,121 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -67,256,550 61,460,040 65,650,289 66,518,476 69,744,341 68,702,583 70,317,946 72,536,746 76,501,870 75,361,134 78,650,548 82,234,245 82,815,276 87,463,098 89,881,573 92,371,611 94,942,968 335,801,127-9,871,083 -11,568,655 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -67,256,550 61,335,430 65,513,037 66,377,754 69,600,037 68,554,612 70,165,617 72,380,542 76,341,669 75,196,818 78,482,014 82,065,710 82,646,742 87,294,564 89,713,039 92,203,076 94,774,434 334,982,752-9,871,083 -11,568,655 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -67,256,550 61,335,430 65,513,037 66,377,754 69,600,037 68,554,612 70,165,617 72,380,542 76,341,669 75,196,818 78,482,014 82,065,710 82,646,742 87,294,564 89,713,039 92,203,076 94,774,434 334,982,752-9,849,202 -11,485,045 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -64,810,857 61,344,500 65,550,903 66,441,581 69,605,649 68,658,799 70,272,355 72,470,784 76,353,686 75,318,294 78,553,777 82,087,591 82,730,352 87,294,564 89,713,039 92,203,076 94,774,434 337,396,304-9,860,143 -11,526,850 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -66,033,704 61,339,965 65,531,970 66,409,667 69,602,843 68,606,705 70,218,986 72,425,663 76,347,678 75,257,556 78,517,896 82,076,651 82,688,547 87,294,564 89,713,039 92,203,076 94,774,434 336,189,528-9,849,202 -11,485,045 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -64,810,857 61,344,500 65,550,903 66,441,581 69,605,649 68,658,799 70,272,355 72,470,784 76,353,686 75,318,294 78,553,777 82,087,591 82,730,352 87,294,564 89,713,039 92,203,076 94,774,434 337,396,304-9,702,549 -11,400,121 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -67,256,550 61,460,040 65,650,289 66,518,476 69,744,341 68,702,583 70,317,946 72,536,746 76,501,870 75,361,134 78,650,548 82,234,245 82,815,276 87,463,098 89,881,573 92,371,611 94,942,968 335,801,127-9,860,143 -11,526,850 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -66,033,704 61,339,965 65,531,970 66,409,667 69,602,843 68,606,705 70,218,986 72,425,663 76,347,678 75,257,556 78,517,896 82,076,651 82,688,547 87,294,564 89,713,039 92,203,076 94,774,434 336,189,528-9,691,609 -11,358,316 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -66,033,704 61,464,575 65,669,222 66,550,389 69,747,147 68,754,676 70,371,315 72,581,867 76,507,879 75,421,872 78,686,430 82,245,185 82,857,081 87,463,098 89,881,573 92,371,611 94,942,968 337,007,903-9,871,083 -11,568,655 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -67,256,550 61,335,430 65,513,037 66,377,754 69,600,037 68,554,612 70,165,617 72,380,542 76,341,669 75,196,818 78,482,014 82,065,710 82,646,742 87,294,564 89,713,039 92,203,076 94,774,434 334,982,752-9,849,202 -11,485,045 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -64,810,857 61,344,500 65,550,903 66,441,581 69,605,649 68,658,799 70,272,355 72,470,784 76,353,686 75,318,294 78,553,777 82,087,591 82,730,352 87,294,564 89,713,039 92,203,076 94,774,434 337,396,304-9,849,202 -11,485,045 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -64,810,857 61,344,500 65,550,903 66,441,581 69,605,649 68,658,799 70,272,355 72,470,784 76,353,686 75,318,294 78,553,777 82,087,591 82,730,352 87,294,564 89,713,039 92,203,076 94,774,434 337,396,304-9,871,083 -11,568,655 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -67,256,550 61,335,430 65,513,037 66,377,754 69,600,037 68,554,612 70,165,617 72,380,542 76,341,669 75,196,818 78,482,014 82,065,710 82,646,742 87,294,564 89,713,039 92,203,076 94,774,434 334,982,752-9,849,202 -11,485,045 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -64,810,857 61,344,500 65,550,903 66,441,581 69,605,649 68,658,799 70,272,355 72,470,784 76,353,686 75,318,294 78,553,777 82,087,591 82,730,352 87,294,564 89,713,039 92,203,076 94,774,434 337,396,304-9,871,083 -11,568,655 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -67,256,550 61,335,430 65,513,037 66,377,754 69,600,037 68,554,612 70,165,617 72,380,542 76,341,669 75,196,818 78,482,014 82,065,710 82,646,742 87,294,564 89,713,039 92,203,076 94,774,434 334,982,752-9,691,609 -11,358,316 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -9,100,838 -66,033,704 61,464,575 65,669,222 66,550,389 69,747,147 68,754,676 70,371,315 72,581,867 76,507,879 75,421,872 78,686,430 82,245,185 82,857,081 87,463,098 89,881,573 92,371,611 94,942,968 337,007,903-9,871,083 -11,568,655 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -9,269,372 -67,256,550 61,335,430 65,513,037 66,377,754 69,600,037 68,554,612 70,165,617 72,380,542 76,341,669 75,196,818 78,482,014 82,065,710 82,646,742 87,294,564 89,713,039 92,203,076 94,774,434 334,982,752

COSTOS AÑO 11

COSTOS AÑO 12

COSTOS AÑO 13

COSTOS AÑO 14

COSTOS AÑO 15

COSTOS AÑO 16



Cuadro N°25

ANALISIS DE RIESGO A PRECIOS PRIVADOS - ALTERNATIVA N°1


0 1 2 3

A. Total deBeneficios 4,983,347 #REF! #REF! #REF!

B. Total de costos de inversión 5,537,052 1,963,610 967,155 973,213

C. Total de costos de operación y manten incr. 0 263,066,648 273,195,157 2,352,081,659

Costos de Operación y Mantenimiento 0 263,066,648 273,195,157 2,352,081,659

Flujo de caja privado (A - B - C ) -553,705 #REF! #REF! #REF!

Factor de Actualización 1.000 0.917 0.842 0.772


VP de los flujos - 553,705 #REF! #REF! #REF!

VAN #REF!

TIR #REF!

ANALISIS DE RIESGO







8% 0.30 0.30 0 2910% 0.50 0.80 30 796% 0.20 1.00 80 99



8% 0.30 0.3 0 2910% 0.50 0.8 30 794% 0.20 1 80 99

COSTOS0 1 2 3

Inversión -5,537,052 -1,963,610 -967,155 -973,213Costos de operación y mantenimiento 0 -263,066,648 -273,195,157 -2,352,081,659

-5,537,052 -265,030,257 -274,162,312 -2,353,054,871







Cuadro N°25


4 5 6 7 8 9 10

#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!

975,444 947,709 719,109 724,305 730,175 735,707 687,726

2,566,635,504 2,628,163,885 2,691,366,263 2,756,299,688 2,832,621,826 2,901,064,701 2,979,628,067

2,566,635,504 2,628,163,885 2,691,366,263 2,756,299,688 2,832,621,826 2,901,064,701 2,979,628,067


0.708 0.650 0.596 0.547 0.502 0.460 0.422


4 5 6 7 8 9 10-975,444 -947,709 -719,109 -724,305 -730,175 -735,707 -687,726

-2,566,635,504 -2,628,163,885 -2,691,366,263 -2,756,299,688 -2,832,621,826 -2,901,064,701 -2,979,628,067-2,567,610,948 -2,629,111,594 -2,692,085,373 -2,757,023,993 -2,833,352,000 -2,901,800,409 -2,980,315,793



Cuadro N°25


11 12 13 14 15 16

#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!

1,759,730 741,465 705,935 631,333 631,698 631,698

3,048,202,925 3,118,753,117 3,191,275,508 3,265,874,531 3,342,763,174 3,421,781,696

3,048,202,925 3,118,753,117 3,191,275,508 3,265,874,531 3,342,763,174 3,421,781,696


0.388 0.356 0.326 0.299 0.275 0.252


11 12 13 14 15 16-1,759,730 -741,465 -705,935 -631,333 -631,698 -631,698

-3,048,202,925 -3,118,753,117 -3,191,275,508 -3,265,874,531 -3,342,763,174 -3,421,781,696-3,049,962,655 -3,119,494,582 -3,191,981,443 -3,266,505,864 -3,343,394,872 -3,422,413,394



Cuadro N°27



0 1 2 3

A. Total de Beneficios 0 68,438,388 74,103,182 75,872,719

B. Total de costos de inversión 61,142,318 226,740 946,638 1,595,681

C. Total de costos de operación y manten incr. 0 6,230,495 6,862,584 7,036,106

Costos de Operación y Mantenimiento 0 6,230,495 6,862,584 7,036,106

Flujo de caja social (A - B - C ) -61,142,318 61,981,154 66,293,960 67,240,932

Factor de Actualización 1.000 0.877 0.769 0.675


VP de los flujos - 61,142,318 54,369,433 51,011,049 45,385,714

VAN 393,423,698

TIR 105.8%

ANALISIS DE RIESGO







8% 0.30 0.30 0 2910% 0.50 0.80 30 796% 0.20 1.00 80 99



8% 0.30 0.3 0 2910% 0.50 0.8 30 794% 0.20 1 80 99

COSTOS0 1 2 3

Inversión -61,142,318 -226,740 -946,638 -1,595,681Costos de operación y mantenimiento 0 -6,230,495 -6,862,584 -7,036,106

-61,142,318 -6,457,235 -7,809,223 -8,631,787







Cuadro N°27


4 5 6 7 8 9 10

77,691,048 79,558,169 81,478,962 83,453,427 85,483,189 87,574,755 89,724,873

140,295 2,604,673 2,668,443 2,256,060 300,430 3,036,895 1,794,078

7,215,169 7,398,561 7,616,416 7,810,199 8,010,043 8,215,775 8,426,702

7,215,169 7,398,561 7,616,416 7,810,199 8,010,043 8,215,775 8,426,702

70,335,584 69,554,935 71,194,103 73,387,168 77,172,716 76,322,085 79,504,092

0.592 0.519 0.456 0.400 0.351 0.308 0.270

41,644,312 36,124,654 32,435,076 29,328,251 27,053,595 23,469,647 21,445,737

4 5 6 7 8 9 10-140,295 -2,604,673 -2,668,443 -2,256,060 -300,430 -3,036,895 -1,794,078

-7,215,169 -7,398,561 -7,616,416 -7,810,199 -8,010,043 -8,215,775 -8,426,702-7,355,464 -10,003,234 -10,284,859 -10,066,259 -8,310,473 -11,252,670 -10,220,780



Cuadro N°27


11 12 13 14 15 16

91,936,793 94,215,397 96,563,936 98,982,411 101,472,449 104,043,807

547,010 2,090,257 0 0 0 0

8,426,702 8,426,702 8,426,702 8,426,702 8,426,702 8,426,702

8,426,702 8,426,702 8,426,702 8,426,702 8,426,702 8,426,702

82,963,082 83,698,438 88,137,234 90,555,709 93,045,747 95,617,105

0.237 0.208 0.182 0.160 0.140 0.123

19,630,507 17,372,373 16,047,092 14,462,651 13,035,382 11,750,544

11 12 13 14 15 16-547,010 -2,090,257 0 0 0 0

-8,426,702 -8,426,702 -8,426,702 -8,426,702 -8,426,702 -8,426,702-8,973,712 -10,516,959 -8,426,702 -8,426,702 -8,426,702 -8,426,702

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