demand for higher education programs may gray...2016 2017 2018 source: grayreports –inquiry...

Data • Insights • Strategy

www.GrayAssociates.com

Data • Insights • Strategy

www.GrayAssociates.com

Demand For Higher Education Programs

Results through May 2018

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Who Is Gray?

Program and MarketEvaluation Data

Employment

Placement Rates

Student Demand

Demographics

Wages

Programs Price ProjectsPlace§ Program Evaluation System

§ Program profiles

§ Program location

§ Market selection

§ Location selection

§ Campus consolidation

§ Price elasticity

§ Price positioning

§ Price optimization

§ Business strategy

§ Strategy implementation

§ Complex analytics

Advanced AnalyticsPredictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition

Employer Requirements

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1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches- National- Online and On-campus- City and Program

2. Program of the Month: Public Administration3. Summary

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§ We started tracking inquiries in 2012 and Google search volumes in September 2016.§ In our webinars, we share data for the last three years.

Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

Gray has tracked demand for several years.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2016 2017 2018

Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

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§ Gray tracks search volume for the 200 largest higher education programs. - In 2016, these programs produced 67% of all completions.- We track approximately 25 keywords for each program.

§ In May, searches were down 3%.

Google Search Trends: Programs

Program searches on Google are down 5% this year (January through May).

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000


Google Searches200-Largest Programs* 2016 2017 2018

*Google Searches for 25 keywords for each of the 200 largest programs based on IPEDS completions

-3%

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§ Gray tracks search volume for a sample of 75 higher education brands.§ May searches decreased by 6%, in line with the average so far this year.

Google Search Trends: Brands

Brand searches are also down 5% this year.

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000


Google Searches75 Brands 2016 2017 2018

-6%

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§ March was down 7% year-over-year.§ April volume rose 1% year-over-year.§ May volume rose 4% year-over-year.

Overall Student Inquiries: All Sources

The long and steep decline in inquiry volume may be ending.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000


National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018


+4%

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§ Q3 2017 beat the baseline by 54%.§ Since then, conversion rates have fallen, but are still beating the baseline by 29%.

Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates

In 2017 and Q1 2018, conversion rates were well above our 2014 baseline.

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Q1 2014

Q2 2014

Q3 2014

Q4 2014

Q1 2015

Q2 2015

Q3 2015

Q4 2015

Q1 2016

Q2 2016

Q3 2016

Q4 2016

Q1 2017

Q2 2017

Q3 2017

Q4 2017

Q1 2018

Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends(Indexed to Q1 2014)

+54%

+29%

1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March is counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.

2. Total includes unknown source type.


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§ January 2018 also fell 6% year-over-year.§ March, April, and May 2018 are below 2017, but the gaps are likely to close as they mature.

Overall Student Inquiry Conversions: All Sources

For February 2018 inquiries, total conversions fell 6% year-over-year.

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000


Total Inquiry ConversionsAll Programs and Award Levels

2016 2017 2018

1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries are received.

-6% YoY

Immature Months1


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§ For the last six months, prices have been over $46.00.§ In May, prices rose 8.7% year-over-year to $49.47.

Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

For 14 out of the past 15 months, the average price paid per inquiry has risen year-over-year.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2016 $45.1 $45.9 $44.7 $44.8 $42.4 $44.9 $44.3 $44.5 $45.1 $44.7 $44.8 $45.42017 $45.3 $45.2 $45.5 $45.3 $45.5 $45.7 $45.2 $44.5 $45.0 $46.0 $45.9 $46.72018 $47.1 46.56 46.33 47.35 49.47 - - - - - - -

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

Average Price per Inquiry for PPIAll Programs and Award Levels

+8.7%

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

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Student Inquiries: 10 Largest Inquiry Budgets

Business Administration has the highest spending on inquiries.

1.000.68

0.500.49

0.360.32

0.260.25

0.210.20

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00

Business Administration and Management

Medical/Clinical Assistant

Psychology, General

Health/Health Care Administration

Medical Insurance Coding Specialist/Coder

Medical Office Assistant/Specialist

Web Page, Digital/Multimedia Design

HVAC

Graphic Design

Public Administration

10 Largest Inquiry Budgets(May 2018)


Index to Max

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§ The budget for Public Administration shot up 656% year-over-year.

Student Inquiries: Budget Spending for 10 Largest Programs

In May, year-over-year spending increased for each of the 10 programs with the largest budgets.


656%

110%

94%

83%

50%

40%

40%

23%

13%

5%

0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700%


Medical Office Assistant/Specialist

Health/Health Care Administration

Psychology, General

Web Page, Digital/Multimedia Design

Graphic Design

HVAC

Medical Insurance Coding Specialist/Coder

Business Administration and Management

Medical/Clinical Assistant

May 2018 Inquiry Budget Trends10 Programs With the Largest Budgets

% Change Year Over Year

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Inquiries for Online Programs

On average, inquiries for online programs grew 5% year-over-year in 2017.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018

+5%


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Inquiries for Online Programs

Inquiries for online programs grew 7% year-over-year in May.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018


+7%

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Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

In May, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 12% year-over-year.

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2016 2017 2018


-12% YoY

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§ Houston was up the most this month (15%), after growing 4% YOY in April.

Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

In May 2018, two of The Big 5 Cities grew inquiries year-over-year.

-15% -17%

-3%

-17% -16%

15%

4% 0%

-2%

-8%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Houston, TX

Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in May Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change 2018 YoY % Change

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

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The Big 5 Programs: May Growth Year-over-Year

Each of The Big 5 Programs grew in May.

91%

22% 14%

8% 8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

100%

Healthcare Administration

Criminal Justice Registered Nursing Medical Assistant Business Administration

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in May Inquiries


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The Fast 5 Programs:The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

All 5 of the fastest-growing programs1 grew 90% or more.

900%

139% 103% 98% 91%

0% 100% 200%300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 800% 900%

1000%


Medical Records Technician

Pharmacy Technician Computer Programming

Healthcare Administration

The Fast 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in May Inquiries

§ Public Administration and Computer Programming are repeats from last month.

1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.


Also in April Fast 5

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Fastest-growing Programs

The fastest-growing programs are all programs that take two years or fewer to complete.

14%

15%

17%

17%

23%

26%

26%

37%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Health/Health Care Administration/Management

Cosmetology/Cosmetologist, General

Surgical Technology/Technologist

Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering …

Truck and Bus Driver/Commercial Vehicle Operator and Instructor

Medical Radiologic Technology/Science - Radiation …

Nail Technician/Specialist and Manicurist

Aesthetician/Esthetician and Skin Care Specialist

Fastest-growing ProgramsApril Google Searches

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Shrinking Programs

Several teaching programs are falling fast.

-68%

-46%

-45%

-43%

-36%

-28%

-27%

-23%

-80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%

Hotel/Motel Administration/Management

Education, General

Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science, General

Hospitality Administration/Management, General

Criminal Justice/Safety Studies

Elementary Education and Teaching

Chemistry, General

Teacher Education, Multiple Levels

Fastest-declining ProgramsApril Google Searches

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Fastest-growing Brands

The fastest-growing brands are a mix of very different schools.

8%

12%

12%

12%

13%

16%

19%

22%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

University of Kansas

University of Oklahoma-Norman Campus

University of Wyoming

College for America, SNHU

Florida Career College

West Coast University

Western Governors University

Universal Technical Institute

Fastest-growing BrandsGoogle Searches

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§ Google keywords associated with Public Administration are very competitive.§ Cost per click is double that of the average program.

Cost Per Click (CPC) – Google Keywords

After a run-up last September, CPC for Public Administration has been high, but steady.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Google SearchesCost Per Click

CPC - Public Administration

CPC - All Programs

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§ The mean salary is $54,000.§ The median salary is $47,000.

Public Administration: Salary

Salaries range from less than $35,000 to more than $75,000 for Public Administrators.

1,119

1,302

1,186

762

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

Less than $35,000

$35,000 to $49,999

$50,000 to $74,999

More than $75,000

Salary Distribution (Advertised)

Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2018. June 1, 2017-May 31, 2018SOC Codes 11-1031 (Legislators) and 11-9151 (Social and Community Service Managers) were used in this analysis.

Number of Postings Citing the Salary Level

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§ Undergraduate Public Administration majors work in many fields, most of which pay better than government jobs.

Public Administration: Bachelor’s Graduate Salaries

For graduates with a Bachelor’s degree in Public Administration, wages are quite different.

$37,076

$81,936

$- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000

Age less than 30

Age over 30

ACS Salaries By Program, For Bachelor’s Degree Graduates

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Public Administration: Education (Minimum Advertised)

92% of Public Administration job postings require at least a Bachelor’s degree.

0%

8%

74%

16%

1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

High school or vocational training

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Doctoral degree

Most Frequently Cited Minimum Education

Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2018. June 1, 2017-May 31, 2018SOC Codes 11-1031 (Legislators) and 11-9151 (Social and Community Service Managers) were used in this analysis.

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Public Administration: Employer Requirements

0.99

0.99

0.85

0.73

0.69

0.64

0.58

0.57

0.52

0.52

0.48

0.47

0.46

0.46

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10

Direct implementation of new procedures, policies, or …

Manage financial activities of the organization

Manage broad organizational programs or initiatives

Oversee execution of organizational or program policies

Manage organizational facilities

Develop staff policies

Manage individual and organizational contracts

Direct financial operations

Terminate employment of employees or contractors

Terminate relationship with clients or vendors

Execute employee bargaining agreements

Establish recruiting procedures

Implement company or staff policies

Direct treatment programs

Public Administration: Primary Work ActivitiesFit with Job

Low Fit with Job High

Source: SkillsEngine, Gray’s Program Evaluation SystemCIPs: Public Administration (41.0401)

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Public Administration: Program Scorecard

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Public Administration:Completions per 1,000 Population (Ages 18-34)

D.C. has 50% greater market saturation than the next closest market.

0.33

0.33

0.36

0.41

0.42

0.43

0.44

0.50

0.75

1.12

0.00 0.50 1.00

Iowa

West Virginia

Minnesota

Massachusetts

New York

Arizona

Vermont

Hawaii

Indiana

District of Columbia

Public Administration Completions Per 1,000 Population (10-Highest States)

0.05

0.06

0.06

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.08

0.08

0.10

0.10

0.00 0.50 1.00

Maine

Idaho

South Carolina

Tennessee

Mississippi

Oklahoma

North Dakota

Louisiana

Wisconsin

Wyoming

Public Administration Completions Per 1,000 Population (10-Lowest States)

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§ The decline in total inquiries seems to be slowing.

§ Conversions rates exceed our baseline, and should lead to rising conversion volumes.

§ Prices for inquiries are rising.

§ Successful brands are enjoying a run-up in searches.

- Increases starts

- May also lower cost per start

§ In this environment, you will need:

- The ability to take share, so you can sustain and grow enrollment in a soft market.

- Great data to inform decisions on programs and markets to invest in.

Key Demand Trends and Observations

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Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact:Bob Atkins

CEOGray Associates, Inc.

[email protected]@Gray_Associates

617.366.2836

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Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webcast

Please join us next month!

July Webcast(June Results)

Thursday, July 19th at 2:00 PM ET

demand for higher education programs may gray...2016 2017 2018 source: grayreports –inquiry...

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