demand for higher education programs - gray associates august... · 2018-09-21 · in august,...

Data • Insights • Strategy

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Demand For Higher Education Programs

Results through August 2018

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Who Is Gray?

Program and MarketEvaluation Data

Employment

Placement Rates

Student Demand

DemographicsWages

Programs Price ProjectsPlace§ Program Evaluation System§ Program profiles§ Program location

§ Market selection§ Location selection§ Campus consolidation

§ Price elasticity§ Price positioning§ Price optimization

§ Business strategy § Strategy implementation§ Complex analytics

Advanced AnalyticsPredictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition

Employer Requirements

Program Economics

New

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§ Inquiries- National- Online & On-Campus- Program, Degree, & City

§ Google Search Trends- Programs- Brands- Growth and Decline

§ Program Sustainability- Gray Perspective

§ Summary

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§ In our webinars, we share data for the last three years. § The data includes 600,000 to 700,000 inquiries per month for over five years.

Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

Gray has tracked demand for several years.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2016 2017 2018

Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

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§ August volume rose 1% year-over-year.

Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

Inquiry volumes have increased year-over-year for the past five months.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000


National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018


+ 1%

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§ A few more May conversions will come in, so they will eventually exceed last year’s.§ June 2018 has already passed June 2017. § July is on track to beat last year.

Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

So far conversions of May 2018 have decreased 1% year-over-year.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000


Total Inquiry ConversionsAll Programs and Award Levels

2016 2017 2018

1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries are received.

Immature Months1


-1% YoY

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§ Month over month, August prices continued to fall from May’s high of $49.48 to $45.39.§ Year-over-year prices rose 1.8%, but are at their lowest level since September 2017.

Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

For the past 11 months, the average price per inquiry has risen year-over-year.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2016 $45.1 $45.9 $44.7 $44.8 $42.4 $44.9 $44.3 $44.5 $45.1 $44.7 $44.8 $45.42017 $45.3 $45.2 $45.5 $45.3 $45.5 $45.7 $45.2 $44.5 $45.0 $46.0 $45.9 $46.72018 $47.1 46.56 46.33 47.41 49.48 48.77 46.19 45.39 - - - -

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

Average Price per Inquiry for PPIAll Programs and Award Levels

+2.4% YoY

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

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§ Summary

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Inquiries for Online Programs

Inquiries for online programs grew 7% year-over-year in August.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018


+7%

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Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

In August, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 10% year-over-year.

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2016 2017 2018


-10% YoY

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§ Summary

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The Big 5 Programs: August Growth Year-Over-Year

Following a strong July, Criminal Justice and Healthcare Administration rose again.

19% 13%

-1% -3%

-22% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%

10% 15% 20% 25%

Criminal Justice Healthcare Administration

Business Administration

Registered Nursing Medical Assistant

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in August Inquiries


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The Fast 5 Programs:The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

Computer Programming grew more than 100% year-over-year in August.

106%

57% 47% 42% 40%

0%

50%

100%

150%

Computer Programming

Cybersecurity Health Services/Health

Sciences

Entrepreneurship Allied Health Diagnostic,

Intervention, and Treatment

The Fast 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in August Inquiries

§ In August 2018, all of the Fast 5 grew by at least 40%.

1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.


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Inquiry Volumes by Degree: Year-Over-Year Change

August was a great month for Doctoral inquiries.

-21%

5%

-1%

3%

17%

-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Undergraduate certificate

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Doctor's degree

Change in InquiriesAugust YoY


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Online Inquiries: Year-Over-Year Inquires by State

Year-to-date, Arkansas has grown the fastest year-over-year (18.58%).


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Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

In August 2018, inquiries increased in just two of The Big 5 Cities.

§ Two cities fell over 10%: Philadelphia and Chicago.

10%

-24%

-4% 0%

-13%

11% 10%

-3%

-13% -21%

-35%

-25%

-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

Los Angeles, CA Houston, TX New York, NY Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL

Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in August Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change 2018 YoY % Change

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

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§ Summary

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§ Gray tracks search volume for the 200 largest higher education programs. - In 2016, these programs produced 67% of all completions.- We track approximately 25 keywords for each program.

Google Search Trends: Programs

Gray’s Google search index continued to rise with a 5.4% increase in August.

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000


Google Searches200 Largest Programs* 2016 2017 2018

*Google Searches for 25 keywords for each of the 200 largest programs based on IPEDS completions

+5.4%

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§ Gray tracks search volume for a sample of 75 higher education brands.§ EDU brand search declined four of the last seven months.§ August broke the trend.

Google Search Trend: Brands

Gray’s index of year-over-year Google search volume for EDU brands rose 1.7% in August.

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000


Google Searches75 Brands 2016 2017 2018

Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for 75 Brands.

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Shrinking Programs

Google searches are falling fast for Teaching and Hospitality programs.These programs all appeared in August’s fastest-declining programs

-68%

-43%

-43%

-31%

-29%

-26%

-25%

-22%

-80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%

Hotel/Motel Administration/Management

Education, General

Hospitality Administration/Management, General

Criminal Justice/Safety Studies

Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science, General

Elementary Education and Teaching

Chemistry, General

Teacher Education, Multiple Levels

Fastest-declining ProgramsAugust Google Searches

Teaching

Hospitality

Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for Largest 200 IPEDS Programs.

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§ Ohio State University is the only school not in August’s fastest growing brands.

Fastest-growing Brands

In our sample of 75, the fastest-growing brands include very different schools.

7%

8%

12%

12%

13%

13%

17%

19%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Harvard University

Ohio State University-Main Campus

Florida Career College

University of Wyoming

College for America, SNHU

Western Governors University

West Coast University

Universal Technical Institute

Fastest-growing BrandsGoogle Searches

Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for Largest 200 IPEDS Programs.

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§ Summary

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Program Sustainability: An Integrated View

A heathy program meets institutional, academic, financial, and market requirements.

Program Economics

Institutional Mission

Academic Standards

Program Markets

Foundations of Program Sustainability

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Program Economics: MethodologyAccumulate student revenue and instructor cost per credit hour by course.

-

+

} = Program Cost and Revenue

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Program Economics: Program Scorecard

The Economic Scorecard includes comparisons to the college’s other programs.

§ Metrics per SCH enable apples to apples comparisons with other programs.§ The color coding shows the program’s rank vs. other programs at the college.

Nursing Program ContributionCommunity College

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§ The table below shows some examples of additional cost departments and how each one can be allocated differently based on its association to programs.

Program Economics: Indirect Costs

Indirect costs must also be factored in when considering contribution by program.

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Program Portfolio Analysis

Some portfolios are much more efficient than the norm.

Institution. Size proportional to completions.

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Program Portfolio Analysis

Ideally, an institution gains share in large, growing programs in healthy markets.

Circle. Proportional to Program Size

Losing Share

Gaining Share

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§ Summary

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§ We’re finally seeing consistent growth in overall student demand.

§ Both Google search and Gray inquiry data confirm this trend.

§ But all the growth is in online; on-ground continues to decline.

§ Prices for inquiries were at all-time highs, but have begun to drop.

§ Demand growth rates are higher in more rural areas.

§ Program contribution can and should be included in program reviews.

Key Demand Trends and Observations





Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webcast

October Webcast (September Results)Thursday, October 25th at 2:00 PM ET

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demand for higher education programs - gray associates august... · 2018-09-21 · in august,...

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