deloitte & touche risk-adjusted capital management cas/soa erm symposium july 30, 2003 sim...
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Deloitte & Touche
Risk-Adjusted Capital Management
CAS/SOA ERM Symposium
July 30, 2003
Sim Segal, FSA, MAAA
Senior Manager
Deloitte & Touche
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Deloitte & Touche
Agenda
What is capital management?
The capital management process and its evolution
Practical application of capital management
Keys to success
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Deloitte & Touche
Capital has two components
Capital is wealth . . .
. . . ”used” or ”available for use” . . .
. . . in the production of more wealth.
American Heritage Dictionary
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Assets
Total Capital = Required + Available
UsedRequired capital
Available capital
Total capital
Liabilities
Available for use
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Capital management is managing both required and available capital
Required capital management
Available capital management
Maintain available capital at optimal level, balancing:
a) Future growth needs
b) Drag on returns
c) Capital flexibility
Maximize risk-based capital performance measure, within
constraints
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Deloitte & Touche
Capital management is managing both required and available capital
Required capital management
Maximize risk-based capital performance measure, within
constraints
Maintain available capital at optimal level, balancing:
a) Future growth needs
b) Drag on returns
c) Capital flexibility
Focus of today’sdiscussion
Available capital management
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Deloitte & Touche
Agenda
What is capital management?
The capital management process and its evolution
Practical application of capital management
Keys to success
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The Capital management process has five steps
1. Define required capital
2. Allocate required capital
3. Select a capital measure to evaluate performance
4. Set a hurdle rate
5. Maximize capital measure, within constraints
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Capital management has evolved in the insurance industry
1. Required Capital 2. Capital Allocation 3. Capital Measure 4. Hurdle Rate
Zero (ignored in pricing)
Multiple of RBC (Statutory)
Multiple of RBC plus accounting adjustments (GAAP, but Stat-based)
Value-at-Risk (VaR) (GAAP)
Company level
Segment level
Line of business or product line level
Policy level
Customer level
Producer level
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Return on Investment (ROI)
Return on Equity (ROE)
Return on Capital (ROC)
Benchmark
Long-Term Weighted Average Cost of Capital
(WACC)
WACC based on dynamic risk-free rate
WACC based on dynamic risk-free rate
anddynamic risk premium
Embedded Value (EV) or Fair Value (FV)
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Agenda
What is capital management?
The capital management process and its evolution
Practical application of capital management
Keys to success
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Example: Public Multiline Financial, Inc.
Step 1: Define required capital
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Downgrade by rating agency
Action by state insurance
departmentEconomic ruin
Loss of competitive standing ?
??
?
?
??
Required capital is risk-based . . . but what risk is being addressed?
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Required capital addresses multiple risks related to disparate constituencies
Regulatory Capital
Rating Agency Capital
Benchmark Capital
Economic CapitalTotal Required Capital
To avoid regulatory action
To maintain current debt or financial strength ratings
To maintain a given probability of avoiding ruin
To match the capital level of a key competitor
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Example: Public Multiline Financial, Inc.
Step 1: Define required capital
Required capital is Value-at-Risk (VaR), using a one-year time horizon and a 99.9% confidence level
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Loss Rate
Pro
bab
ilit
y
Confidence Level
95%95% 99%99% 99.9%99.9%
IllustrativeIllustrative
Value-at-Risk (VaR) is based on a stochastic analysis of economic ruin
Value-at-Risk Capital
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Example: Public Multiline Financial, Inc.
Step 1: Define required capital
Step 2: Allocate capital
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Allocating capital further down in the organization facilitates more decision-making
Strategic decisions, e.g.:Growth
Market exit
Tactical decisions, e.g.:Pricing
Mix of product portfolio
Transactional decisions, e.g.:Retention efforts
Cross-selling
Producer compensation decisions
Policy
Product
Policy Policy. . .
Product Product. . .
Policy
Segment Segment Segment. . .
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Example: Public Multiline Financial, Inc.
Step 1: Define required capital
Step 2: Allocate capital
Capital is allocated down to the product level
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Example: Public Multiline Financial, Inc.
Step 1: Define required capital
Step 2: Allocate capital
Step 3: Select a capital measure to evaluate performance
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Each capital measure offers a unique focus
ROI emphasizes rate of return
ROE measures efficiency of usage of equity capital
ROC illustrates the ability to generate earnings per dollar of total capital
EV quantifies the dollar contribution to shareholder value
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Case study: ROE-based compensation has disadvantages vs. EV-based compensation
Hurdle rate = 15%
Situation ROE-based* plan EV-based plan
Value is created:
Management in a 20% ROE line of business decides to add a 16% ROE project
Penalized Rewarded
Value is destroyed:
Management grows a 12% ROE business
Rewarded Penalized
* Compensation plan based on ROE and earnings
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Example: Public Multiline Financial, Inc.
Step 1: Define required capital
Step 2: Allocate capital
Step 3: Select a capital measure to evaluate performance
Capital measure is Embedded Value (EV)
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Embedded Value (EV)
Value of surplus
Value of inforce business
Discounted value of distributable earnings from inforce business*
Distributable surplus
* Includes target surplus
Embedded Value (EV) is a function of distributable earnings / surplus from inforce
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-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Adjusted statutory net income *
Target surplus released (consumed)
* Adjusted to replace investment income on surplus with investment income on target surplus
Distributable earnings reflects changes in total surplus and target surplus
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Example: Public Multiline Financial, Inc.
Step 1: Define required capital
Step 2: Allocate capital
Step 3: Select a capital measure to evaluate performance
Step 4: Set a hurdle rate
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The hurdle rate is management’s estimate of its risk-return position on the efficient frontier
Return
Risk
Rf
m
Rm
?
?
0
XX
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Hurdle rate setting methods involve tradeoffs between simplicity, accuracy and stability
Method Simplicity Accuracy Stability of Measure
Benchmarking Easiest Poor Poor
Long-term weighted average cost of capital (WACC)
Moderately complex
Moderate Fair
WACC based on dynamic risk-free rates
Moderately complex
High Good
WACC based on dynamic risk-free rates and dynamic risk premium
Most complex
Highest Best
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Deloitte & Touche
Example: Public Multiline Financial, Inc.
Step 1: Define required capital
Step 2: Allocate capital
Step 3: Select a capital measure to evaluate performance
Step 4: Set a hurdle rate
Hurdle rate is WACC based on dynamic risk-free rates, with uniform hurdle rates throughout the enterprise
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Deloitte & Touche
Example: Public Multiline Financial, Inc.
Step 1: Define required capital
Step 2: Allocate capital
Step 3: Select a capital measure to evaluate performance
Step 4: Set a hurdle rate
Step 5: Maximize capital measure, within constraints
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Dynamic modeling clarifies potential impact of projects on embedded value (EV)
($millions)
Product EV EVLine Investment Mortality Expense Lapse Baseline Chg
A -2% 245.3 2.5 B 0.10% -1% -5% -2% 174.9 5.6 C -5% 5% 60.2 (0.6) D -10% 28.0 0.8
Total LOB 508.4 8.3
Projected Change in Assumptions
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Constraint of maintaining the RBC ratio is more complex when using Value-at-Risk (VaR)
Required capital (VaRC)
1.0 B
Available capital
0.3 B
Required capital (200% RBC)
1.2 B
Available capital
0.1 B
Statutory
GAAP
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Summary: practical applications of capital management
Strategic:
Manage stock analysts, e.g., reveal under-valued businesses
Strategic planning, e.g., project capital needs, quantify impact on capital ratios
Risk management, e.g., estimate probability of ruin and impact on stock price
Tactical:
Funding decisions, e.g., identify stock repurchase opportunities
Risk-return tradeoff decisions
Identifying highest value-added projects
Asset-liability management (ALM)
Provide incentive compensation aligned with increasing value
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Agenda
What is capital management?
The capital management process and its evolution
Practical application of capital management
Keys to success
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Keys to success
Define required capital with deference to all key constituencies
Allocate capital as far down in the organization as possible
Select a capital measure that aligns with your goals
Align incentive compensation with the capital measure
Avoid fallacy of the “correct” hurdle rate
Manage constraints carefully while maximizing capital measure
Employ a disciplined process to setting or changing assumptions
Provide management with the tools to understand the impact of decisions on the capital measure
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Deloitte & Touche
CAS/SOA ERM Symposium
July 30, 2003
Sim Segal, FSA, MAAA
Senior Manager
Deloitte & Touche
Risk-Adjusted Capital Management
Thank You!