Brian Wernham

“Chaos: a new perspective on Agile governance”

Presented at APM Governance SIG, London, May 14, 2014

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Why are YOU here today?

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What is ‘Agile’?‘Agile’ only for

web development?

‘Agile’ only for tiny stuff?

‘Agile’ = loss of control?

What is ‘DSDM’?

‘Agile’ in mission critical

projects?

What is ‘Scrum’?

Are we talking Governance of a project

of Governance of portfolios of change?

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This talk:1. What is ‘Agile’?

2. What is Agile Governance?

3. Can we be ready for & take advantage of the unexpected?- Chaos Theory & Emergent Complexity

4. Kick-off the development of a guide for Agile Governance

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1. What is Agile?

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The “Big Design Up Front” mind-set

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I had better ask

for all possible

features…

At last – a chance to get what I

want!

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The Big Design Up Front is born…

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The result of Big Design Up Front…

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D’oh!http://bit.ly/About-Brian

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9http://bit.ly/About-Brian

@BrianUkulele

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As difficult as trying to swim up a waterfall…

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Scrum at the team level – two popular methods…

ScrumDSDM

1. ‘Scrum’ – a team level approach

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Source: Mike Cohn www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/scrum

15Source: DSDM Consortium (DSDM = Driving Strategy, Delivering More)

An overview of two agile methods2. ‘DSDM’ – a hybrid team/project level approach

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2. What is Agile Governance?

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a) Time Driven

“I don’t want it perfect – I want it Thursday”

Traditional Agile

Agile inverts the normal project management paradigm…

b) … and minimises Work in Progress

“There is no value in holding stock in a warehouse”

Traditional Agile

Design

Build

Test

Deploy

P/type

?

P/type

P/type

P/type

Agile focuses on flow…

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Can we define Agile Governance principles at several levels: Project Level?

Governance of one specific project? Scrum? DSDM?

Programme Level? Governance of hybrid programmes that comprises both:

Waterfall projects & Agile projects?

Portfolio Level? Governance across many projects?

Is ‘Agile Governance’ really about being adaptable?

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TraditionalProject

Innovationproject

HybridProgramme

Design

Build

Test

Deploy

P/type

P/type

P/type

P/type

Control-freakGovernance

AgileGovernance

Arms-lengthGovernance

InnovationProject

InnovationProject

TraditionalProject

TraditionalProject

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3. Can we be ready for & take advantage of the unexpected?

A brief overview of the practical impact of Chaos Theory Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial conditions) How long is a piece of string? (Fractals) Satisficing a business case (Alternative stable states)

Complex outcomes from simple systems Self-organisation

Ants People (so very different?)

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Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial conditions)

For want of a nail the shoe was lostFor want of a shoe the horse was lostFor want of a horse the battle was lost…

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Heat convection – any difference in initial conditions produces an unpredicatble outcome after a while:

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Increase the feedback and the Lorenz equation becomes unstable and ‘chaotic’:

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Complexity out of simplicity

e.g. the Lorenz Equation

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Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial conditions)

For want of a nail the shoe was lostFor want of a shoe the horse was lostFor want of a horse the battle was lost…

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“No two snowflakes are the same”

A simple fractal - The Koch Curve

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“No two snowflakes are the same”

A simple fractal - The Koch Curve

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How long is a piece of string? (Fractals)

Ruler length = x Answer = y

Ruler length x/2 Answer = y*2.5

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The result runs away from you the closer you try to measure it…

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The ‘fractal dimension’ measures this disappearing event horizon

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How long will it take to add “just a bit more detail” to a business case or spec?

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Alternative stable states

“Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems”Marten Scheffer, Nature, 2001

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Self-organisation - Ants

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Self-organisation - Ants

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Self-organisation - People

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References

Daňa, Josef “Chaos Theory in Project Management”, Masaryk University, Brno

2014 Christopher, Martin

“The Agile Supply Chain : Competing in Volatile Markets”, Industrial Marketing Management, Vol 29., No. 1., 2000, pp. 37-44

Yang, C “Hierarchical Summarization of Large Documents”, Drexel University

Scheffer, Marten Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems, Nature, 2001

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4. Kick-off the development of a guide for Agile Governance

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brian.wernham@gmail.comBlog: brianwernham.wordpress.com

@BrianUkulele http://bit.ly/About-Brian

`

Thanks for listening!

http://bit.ly/special-offer-CWBW50

Delegates’ 50%

discount`