HELLO playmates! Ready for the best week'sracing of the year? Ascot is great, Goodwood isperhaps even better than Ascot, the Chester May

meeting is something else as well, but nothing comeclose to the Festival.

As we speak, plots are hatching, wagers are beingmade. Come March 15 it will be do-or-die for punters,and a lot will do their brains. It's the nature of the game.

You need guinness, a big telly, some money in yourbookmaker's account and a fair deal of nerve andpatience. Get it right and you're laughing; get it wrongand ... well, you will still have seen some great racing.

A heavy loser during Festival week is easy to spotround pubs in the middle week of March: they will bethe character at the bar with the Racing Post spread infront of them, a large scotch, a thousand-yard stare and

the Samaritans on speed-dial. Pay no attention to them:bad luck rubs off. Talking of which, it hasn't been thebest jumps season for Flash, dunno why (see side articleabout Betfair). When things get thin over the sticks,Flash makes a beeline for the all-weather, whereknowing how the donkey races work can make you kingof the sand!

Nonetheless, I keep an eye on proceedings in theworld of jump racing and what follows is my generalviews on the greatest show on Turf, and maybe even afew live ones for your punting consideration.

The great trouble with the huge status of the Festivalis that January and Febuary become months wherehorses which have festival entries are campaignedcarefully in order to have them bang right for March.This can be a little frustrating. Is the horse out to play or

A Cheltenham Festival preview from the Deep-London racing correspondant, Flash Harry

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Have betting exhanges changed the game forever?

BLIMEY, is it nearly that time again? The time has come toget our wager money and drinking vouchers together andsort out the beef from the lasagne, if you get my drift.

How have you spent the year since the last CheltenhamFestival, or to give it its proper title - plummy accent - theNational Hunt Meeting. Me? In between birds and boozing andgenerally keeping the Flash Harry Exchequer in the black, I'vebeen looking at the betting markets for the gee-gees withsome alarm. I don't want to get too technical here, but: TheFlash Harry approach to finding winners at decent prices, orat the very least prices far better than they should be, hasalways rested on spotting an edge in the market, a factor thatthe market makers - odds compilers, bookies, punters,tipsters - have missed, or rather undervalued. This is not ashard as it may sound, if you school yourself in the arcane artof form study.

Horses that only perform in certain ground conditions,horses campaigned at tracks that go left handed when theylike going right, young horses that have failed at five furlongsbut steam up at seven, horses that are well-in at the weightsonce explanations for previous poor runnings have beenarrived at, and many other signs and signals. All these thingscould result in a horse going off at tasty prices when theyshould be much shorter.

Spotting these factors is is how Flash and many othersmake a crust out of the racing game. But this past jumpsseason, and to an extent the one before, your friendlyneighbourhood nag scribe has felt that there is somethingamiss, and he has a theory to explain it: in a word, Betfair: thebetting exchange.

Take a look at almost any bookie at a racecourse and you'llfind him ducking behind his board from time to time to havea look at something, and let me tell you, it ain't a Mercedes-Benz catalogue (that will be on the coffee table at home). No,it's a laptop tuned to the Betfair market. All the best racingbrains and insider knowledge are moving money around onthe exchange (as they have every right to do, it's what it isthere for) and finally bookies big and small have woken up toit. There was a time not so long ago when the disparitybetween a Betfair price and a bookie's price, even allowing forthe bookmaker's profit margin to round down the odds, couldbe substantial. Now it is virtually the same, because the primemarket-maker is not to be doubted.

If my theory is correct, the net result is a reduction in theamount of big-priced winners in bread-and-butter jumpracing. And as any halfway serious betting man will tell you,it's two or three of these a month that keep you ahead of thepoorhouse in the winter months.

The ultimate test will be the Festival, playmates, so keepyour binoculars handy and watch them prices! Of course, theother solution is to take a chance and get on early.

See you in the champagne bar,Flash Harry

getting himself together for the big week? The flip-sideof this uncertainty is that once the Festival gets startedyou can be sure that every horse worth a light will beseriously out to play. So, eyes down for a full house.

The Supreme Novices Hurdle: My Tent or Yours, the6/4 favourite looked a seriously strong beast whenknocking the competition bandy at Newbury the otherweek, but I'm not interested in horses at the price unlessthey're Frankel. The two horses in this race that interestme at DODGING BULLETS (currently a general 8/1)and RIVER MAIGUE (generally 12/1). They are bothvery good horses. Maigue was a length-second toBullets at Cheltenham last November, so they havecourse form. At a bigger price I reckon the delightfullynamed CHAMPAGNE FEVER (16/1) will show big.

CONTINUED OVER...

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The RSA Chase: I'm inclinedtowards a big price, natch. A brave,strong horse with all importantcourse credentials is what is neededhere, and HOUBLON DESOBEAUX, currently a gigantic 40/1,fits the bill. An each-way punt ifever there was one.

The Ryanair Chase: The mightyCue Card could show out here, but Ithink we will see a huge fight fromWillie Mullins's Sir Des Champs(providing he doesn't switch to theGold Cup), who showed hiscredentials when winning at aFestival clue meeting atLeopardstown, in Ireland, a coupleof weeks back. However, he wasn'tentirely fluent and may fluff his linescome March. At a general 9/2 he isworth taking on. I'd be inclined tokeep an eye on David Pipe'sGRANDS CRUS (20/1). This nag

was what we call in the game atalking horse last season, and theone before. Acres of newsprint wascovered with theories of how far hewas gonna after he made a goodstart. Sadly, he soon went the otherway, however, the odds compilerskept sticking him in as favourite andthe market voted with its feet: Iwouldn't like to think how many

tons of tenners he swept intobookies' satchels when it all wentpear-shaped.

The thing about these sort ofhorses is that when favourite-backers and journalists have givenup on them, they tend to hose upsomewhere at a gigantic price, notby design just by dint of the horsenot being straightforward. So watchout. If the ground's good it will alsobe worth taking a chance onFINIAN'S RAINBOW (16/1), who isa great horse who has run somestinkers on soft ground, and hisprice reflects this. If there's goodground, watch the market. He holdsan entry in the Queen MotherChampion Chase as well. As doesCue Card.

In The Triumph Hurdle I'minclined to look past the front of themarket at two who were out at

Kempton two weeks ago. PaulNicholls's IRISH SAINT and NickyHenderson's VASCO DURONCERAY. The pair of them had afine old dust up in the closing stagesof the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle withIrish Saint getting up beating Vascoby half a lengthat thef i n i s h .H o w e v e r,the groundwas goodthat day andVasco is ahorse forg o o d / s o f t .Should we getthat comefestival week Ithink he needsvery seriousconsideration

at a general 25/1. He has only racedseven times and never been out ofthe first three, albeit in small fields.

BOB'S WORTH will probably winthe Cheltenham Gold Cup but at ageneral 3/1 ante post he doesn'texcite me very much. There arenumerous each way options, but Iquite fancy CAPE TRIBULATION as

an each-way prospect at 20/1. Hebeat former Gold Cup winnerImperial Commander (tipped byyours truly) some weeks ago atCheltenham, when giving the oldstager 6lb. Malcolm Jefferson, CapeTribulation's trainer, is not a festivalbig shot, but we like an underdog inthis column.

So there's the tips, and it onlyremains for me to say: playmates,drink, smoke and gamble freely, 'coswe're all horsemeat in the end.

Be lucky.

(All prices correct at time of goingto press.)

FFllaasshh HHaarrrryy’’ss ttoopp ttiippss!!

Supreme Novices: River Maigue

RSA Chase: Houblon Des Obeaux

Ryanair Chase: Grands Crus

Triumph Hurdle: Vasco De Ronceray

Gold Cup: Cape Tribulation.

HHaarrrryy’’ss DDoouubbllee:: River Maige

& Vasco Du Ronceray

River Maigue

Grands Crus

Cape Tribulation

Finians Rainbow

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