decisions and time in the information society

Decisions and Time in the information Society

In Search of Time

ISIDA

Palermo

9 May 2003

1

Decisions and Time Decisions and Time in the Information in the Information SocietySociety

Jesse MarshAtelier Studio Associato

[email protected]


In Search of Time

ISIDA

Palermo

9 May 2003

2

Time and Policy-makingTime and Policy-making• Time to read the environment

• Time to define a strategy

• Time to build consensus

• Time to approve

• Time to finance

• Time to implement

• Time to evaluate


In Search of Time

ISIDA

Palermo

9 May 2003

3

Time and the Info-societyTime and the Info-society• Pace of change

• Moore’s law

• Non-linear processes

• Systemic reflexivity

• Complexities of globalisation

• Reversal of the value chain


In Search of Time

ISIDA

Palermo

9 May 2003

4

Time and Rules of the gameTime and Rules of the game• Super Mario vs. chess

• Vulnerability to shocks

• Instability of rule-sets

• Uncertainty of outcomes

• “Interactive” policy?


In Search of Time

ISIDA

Palermo

9 May 2003

5

Linear to DevelopmentalLinear to Developmental

• Effectiveness:change timespan >policy intervention

• Effectiveness:change timespan =policy intervention

ENVIRONMENT DECISION ACTION

LINEAR POLICY MODEL ENVIRONMENT

DECISION ACTION

DEVELOPMENTAL POLICY MODEL


In Search of Time

ISIDA

Palermo

9 May 2003

6

Time’s blackmailTime’s blackmail• What about:

change timespan <policy intervention?

• Do policy interventions take too long?

• Are “bottom-up” methods an answer?

• Who can policy-makers control?

• What does policy produce anyway?


In Search of Time

ISIDA

Palermo

9 May 2003

7

From buying to shapingFrom buying to shaping

• Example:send a man to the moon;Messina bridge

• Examples:the Information “Superhighway”;the Euro

ENVIRONMENT

DECISION ACTION

BUY

READ VERIFY

SPHERE OFPOLICY

INTERVENTION

ENVIRONMENT

DECISION EVENTS

READ VERIFY

IMAGE

FORMULATE SHAPE


In Search of Time

ISIDA

Palermo

9 May 2003

8

Predicting Rule-setsPredicting Rule-sets• What is an image?

• Future rule-sets imply changed behaviour of socio-technical systems

• Collective creativity can be stimulated, but not planned

• “Enabling” actions, leverage effects, social amplifiers

• How to verify that things went right?


In Search of Time

ISIDA

Palermo

9 May 2003

9

Predicting Rule-setsPredicting Rule-sets

• Importance of verifying the relation between predicted rule-sets and emerging rule-sets

READ MONITOR

PREDICT SHAPE

Rt+1

ED

Rt+1

Rt

(t+1 -> t)

VERIFY

t = any given time1 = time of a single policy-making cycle


In Search of Time

ISIDA

Palermo

9 May 2003

10

Fractal ExtensionFractal Extension• Object of image-based policy is not a

concrete entity

• Means of image-based policy is not laws or money

• Subject of image-based policy is social systems

• Decision-making (innovation) in social systems is through propagation

• Everybody “makes policy”


In Search of Time

ISIDA

Palermo

9 May 2003

11

Fractal ExtensionFractal Extension

• Fractal extension of rule-set images

READ MONITOR

PREDICT

SHAPE

Rt+1

ED

Rt+1

Rt

(t+1 -> t)

VERIFY

READ

MONITOR

PREDICT

SHAPERt+2

D

Rt+2

Rt

(t+2 -> t)

VERIFY

(t+1 +1 = t+2)


In Search of Time

ISIDA

Palermo

9 May 2003

12

DecodingDecoding• What about t+n?

• Need to predict other actors’ images of future rule-sets

• Decoding weak signals

• t+n must be sound and compelling but also light, quick, flexible


In Search of Time

ISIDA

Palermo

9 May 2003

13

DecodingDecoding

READ MONITOR

PREDICT

SHAPE

Rt+1

ED

Rt+1

Rt

(t+1 -> t)

VERIFY

READ

MONITOR

PREDICT

SHAPERt+2

D

Rt+2

Rt

(t+2 -> t)

VERIFY

(t+1 +1 = t+2)Rt+1

DECODE


In Search of Time

ISIDA

Palermo

9 May 2003

14

ValidationValidation• Verify

Qualitative ex-post evaluation

Do what degree do new rule sets correspond to predicted ones?

• MonitorProcess evaluation

What new rule sets are emerging?

• DecodePre-emptive evaluation

What new rule sets are field actors predicting?


In Search of Time

ISIDA

Palermo

9 May 2003

15

Open IssuesOpen Issues• How to promote sustainable lifestyles?

• Social engineering? Need for democratic control

• Resistance to dematerialisation of politics

• Lack of attitude to long-term thinking

• Time for reflection

decisions and time in the information society

Economy & Finance