decision support system mind mapdecision theorytype of problem dss model case study sistem penunjang...

Decision Support System Mind Map Decision TheoryType of Problem DSS Model Case Study

Sistem Penunjang Keputusan(Decision Support System)Penerapan DSS di Industri Asuransi

Budi HermanaProgram Pascasarjana – Universitas Gunadarma

Edisi Oktober 2012

source:www.gumtree.com.au http://www.marketresearchreports.com/insurance


Organizational decision making

Interactivecomputer

systemsDSS

Insurance Company/Industry

History&Evolution

Database (or knowledge base)Model

(The decision context and user criteria)

User interface

Component of DSSDSS features

Peta Konsep

Type of ProblemProblem StructureDecision&ManagementDecision MakingProcessDecision Techniques

Communication-driven DSSData-driven DSS

Document-driven DSSKnowledge-driven DSS

Model-driven DSS

Type pf DSS

Computer Based ISUser RequirementICT ImpactICT Trend&Growth

ICT & Organization


What is The Problem ?

Problems are problems only when we are aware of them

Problems are problems because they have no easy answers

Solutions often become problems

Problems and values change over time. What was a good solution once doesn't work any more

What are the relevant factors??

For some, problems are opportunities in disguise. For others, problems cause worry

Problem is the difference between what is, and what might or should be

A perceived gap between the existing state and a desired state, or a deviation

from a norm, standard, or status quo: http://www.businessdictionary.com


1. Truly Generic (individual occurrence is a symptom; Two Different Kinds of Compromises)

2. Generic, but Unique for the individual institution 3. Truly exceptional, truly unique 4. Early manifestation of a new generic problem

4 Types of Problem (Peter F. Drucker)


Problem Type #1 – Truly generic Drucker writes:

“There is first the truly generic, of which the individual occurrence is only a symptom. Most of the problems that come up in the course of the executive’s work are of this nature. Inventory

decisions in a business, for instance, are not “decisions.” They are adaptations. The problem is generic.”

√√√

√Catastrophic Risk

Moral Hazzard

Perhitungan premi

Administrasi Polis

Insurable Interest

Asset Default Risk

Penerapan IFRS di Industri Asuransi

Perancangan Produk Baru

Latihan/Diskusi


Problem Type #2 – Generic, but Unique for the individual institution Drucker writes:

“Then there is the problem that, while a unique event for the individual institution, is actually generic. The company that receives an offer to merge from another, larger one will never receive such an offer again if it accepts. This is a nonrecurrent situation as far as the individual company, its board of directors, and its management are concerned. But it is, of course, a generic situation

that occurs all the time.”

√

√

Catastrophic Risk

Moral Hazzard

Perhitungan premi

Administrasi Polis

Insurable Interest

Asset Default Risk



Latihan/Diskusi


Problem Type #3 – Truly exceptional, truly unique Drucker writes:

“Next there is the truly exceptional, the truly unique event. The power failure that plunged into darkness the whole of northeastern North America from St. Lawrence River to Washington D.C.,

in November 1965, was according to the first explanations, a truly exceptional situation.”

Catastrophic Risk

Moral Hazzard

Perhitungan premi

Administrasi Polis

Insurable Interest

Asset Default Risk



Latihan/Diskusi

√


Problem Type #4 – Early manifestation of a new generic problem Drucker writes:

“Truly unique events are rare, however. Whenever one appears, one has to ask, Is this a true exception or only the first manifestation of a new genus? And this, the early manifestation of a new generic problem, is the fourth and last category of events with which the decision process

deals.”

Catastrophic Risk

Moral Hazzard

Perhitungan premi

Administrasi Polis

Insurable Interest

Asset Default Risk



Latihan/Diskusi

√


Generic or Exception? Drucker writes:

“The first questions the effective decision-maker asks are: Is this a generic situation or an exception? Is this something that underlies a great many

occurrences? Or is the occurrence a unique event that needs to be dealt with as such? The generic always has to be answered through a rule, a principle.”

All Events But the Truly Unique Require a Generic Solution Drucker writes:

“All events but the truly unique require a generic solution. They require a rule, a policy, a principle. Once the right principle has been developed, all manifestations of the same generic situation can be handled pragmatically, that is,

by adaption of the rule to the concrete circumstances of the case. Truly unique events, however, must be treated individually. One cannot develop

rules for the exceptional. ”


di dalam Joanne de Kruijf (2007)

Beware!

Kadang bukan masalahnya, tapi pola pikir, pola sikap atau persepsi orang

yang lebih kompleks


Why is it important to determine the root cause of a problem before trying to find a

solution?

http://www.ereleases.com/prfuel/5-problems-solved-by-savvy-pr/


Sumber: http://www.thinkreliability.com/Root-Cause-Analysis-CM-Basics.aspx


Sumber:www4.uwm.edu/cuts/ce790/problem.pdf


Symptom Approach vs Root CauseSymptom Approach Root Cause

“Errors are often a result of workercarelessness.”

“Errors are the result of defects in the system. People are only part of the process.”

“We need to train and motivateworkers to be more careful.”

“We need to find out why this ishappening, and implement mistakeproofs so it won’t happen again.”

Sumber: www.au.af.mil/AU/AWC/AWCGATE/nasa/root_cause_analysis.pdf

Cause Map

http://www.thinkreliability.com/Root-Cause-Analysis-CM-Basics.aspx


Tools Used in Root Cause Analysis




Latihan/Diskusi

Perusahaan Asuransi belum siap

menerapkan IFRS


Di dalam Joanne de Kruijf (2007)

Type of Problem


di dalam Joanne de Kruijf (2007)

Structured vs Unstructured Proble


Most managerial activities such as problem solving, strategic planning, and

resource allocation, involve one or more components of what we will now define as the

decision-making process(Ernest Forman, George Washington University's School of Business)

http://www.dancarey.org/business-management-responsibilities-problem-solving/


Sumber: Gorry and Scott Morton

Type of Problem vs Management Level


Latihan/Diskusi

Operational Control

Management Control

Strategic Planning

Structured

Unstructured

Semi-structured


Rational Approach

source: http://www.rio.edu/


source: http://www.rio.edu/


Sumber: Gurpreet Singh

Problem Solving



Checking the results of a decision against its expectations shows executives what their strengths are, where they need to

improve, and where they lack knowledge or information

(Peter F. Drucker)


Information Requirements by Decicion Category

Sumber: G. Anthony Gory and Michael S. Scott Morton


STEP 1Define the problem

STEP 3Establish goals that solving the problem should accomplish

STEP 4Identify alternatives that will solve the problem

STEP 5Develop valuation criteria based on the goals

STEP 6Select a decision-making Tool

STEP 7Apply the tool to select apreferred alternative

STEP 8Check the answerto make sure itsolves the problem

(Adapted from Baker et al, 2001)

STEP 2Determine the requirements that the solution to the problem must meet




























STEP 8Check the answerto make sure itsolves the problem








The Decision-Making Process [2]


Source: University of Connecticut, users.business.uconn.edu/whuang/opim3103/ppt12.ppt



Theories of decision-making applied to the health insurance context

Sumber: PIA SCHNEIDER. 2004. Why should the poor insure? Theories of decision-making inthe context of health insurance. Health Policy and Planning 19(6) 19(6): 349–355 © Oxford University Press, 2004


interactive computer-based systems which help decision-makers utilize data bases and models to solve ill-structured problems

a computer based system to aid decision making

using suitable and available technology to improve effectiveness of managerial and professional activities

a new challenge towards the design of intelligent workstations

Awal 70-an

Akhir 70-an

Awal 80-an

Akhir 80-an

data warehousing and on-line analytical processing (OLAP)

90-an


Characteristicsof a DSS System

Characteristicsof a DSS System

InteractiveInteractive

FlexibleFlexible

Discovery-OrientedDiscovery-Oriented

AccessibleAccessible

Deborah BakerTexas Christian University


Strategic planning level

Management control level

Operational control level Internal

Environmental

The Influence of Management Level on Information Source

MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS 8/ERaymond McLeod, Jr. and George Schell



Management control level

Operational control level Detail

Summary

The Influence of Management Level on Information Form



Managers Can Be Found on All Levels and in All Functional

Areas of the Firm

FinanceFunction

Human ResourcesFunction

InformationServicesFunction

ManufacturingFunction

MarketingFunction


Management Control Level

Operational Control Level



What Managers do --Fayol’s Functions

Strategic Planning Level

Management Control Level

Operational Control Level

Plan

Control

Organize

Direct

Staff

Organize

Staff

Direct

Plan

Control

Direct

Staff

Plan

Control

Organize



Problem Solving Information Comes in Many Forms

Co

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epo

rts

No

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ute

r re

po

rts

Ele

ctro

nic

mai

l

Per

iod

ical

s

Tele

ph

on

eProblem Solving

Written Media Oral Media

Internal Sources External Sources

Sch

edu

led

Mee

tin

gs

Un

sch

edu

led

Mee

tin

gs

Vo

ice

Mai

l

Tou

rs

Bu

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ess

Mea

ls

Let

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& M

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An information system that is based on computer hardware and

software technology for processing and disseminating information.

Computer-based Information System


DatabaseAdministrator

User SystemsAnalyst

Programmer Operator Computer

NetworkSpecialist

Traditional Communication Chain



IS and EUCThe End-User Computing Communication

Chain

User Computer

InformationSpecialists

Support

Communication



The CBIS ModelComputer-based Information System

(CBIS)

Accounting Information System

ManagementInformation System

Decision SupportSystems

The VirtualOffice

Knowledge-based Systems

Decisions

Problem

Information

ProblemSolution



Decision Support SystemsExecutive Information Systems

Expert SystemsInformation Reporting Systems

Workgroup Information SystemsPersonal Information Systems

Office Information SystemsTransaction Processing Systems

100%

0%

Decision Support Content of Different Types of Information Systems


Dimensions TPS MIS DSS Type of users Clerical and

supervisory Middle Management

All levels including top mgmt. and professionals.

Focus Data transactions

Information Decision, flexibility

Applications Payroll, sales data, inventory

Sales forecasting, Production control,

Strategic planning, integrated problems

Differences in System Characteristics


Dimensions TPS MIS DSS Ease of use

Low

Moderate

High

Processing Interest

Expediency

Efficiency

Effectiveness

Reason for development

Cost saving, customer service

Reporting basic information

Improved decision making

Differences in System Characteristics


Characteristics Operational Managerial Strategic

Accuracy High LowLevel of detail Detailed AggregateTime horizon Present FutureUse Frequent InfrequentSource Internal ExternalScope Narrow WideNature Quantitative QualitativeAge Current Current/old

Information Characteristics for Different Types of Decisions


Theory applications and contributing disciplines of decision support systemSean B. Eom. Southeast Missouri State University


Decision Support System in Healthcare Industry. (Rajalakshmi, 2011)


Stocks Investment Decision Maker

Esteban Ramirez (2009)

DecisionTree

Model:

Neural Networks

Decision Trees

Analytical Hierarchy Process

Statistical Model


A Decision Support System to Compare theTransportation Modes in Logistics

Analytical HierarchyProcess


Lianfa Li (2005)

Decision Tree for Reasoning for Hazard Insurance Pricing


Debmallya Chatterjee et. al. International Journal of Engineering Science and Technology

Vol. 2(7), 2010


Hsin-Yuan Chang and Shang-Yu Chen (2011). Applying Analytic Hierarchy Process-Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution

(AHP-TOPSIS) model to evaluate individual investmentperformance of retirement planning policy


Decision analysis for cost benefit

By Dr. Jürgen Becher, 8th Global Conference of ActuariesMarch, 2006


The Analytical Hierarchy Process by Thomas Saaty


Price 13100 11200 9500MPG 18 23 29Interior Deluxe Above Average StandardBody 4-Door Mid-size 2-Door Sport 2-door compactRadio AM/FM, tape AM/FM AMEngine 6-cylinder 4-cylinder turbo 4-cylinder

Car A Car B Car C

Step 1


Select The Best Car

Price MPG Comfort Style

CAR ACAR BCAR C

CAR ACAR BCAR C

CAR ACAR BCAR C

CAR ACAR BCAR C

Step 2


Establish Priorities

1. The priorities of the four criteria in terms of the overall goal.

2. The priorities of the three cars in terms of the purchase-price criterion.

3. The priorities of the three cars in terms of the MPG criterion.

4. The priorities of the three cars in terms of the comfort criterion.

5. The priorities of the three cars in terms of the style criterion.

Step 3


Pairwise Comparison Scale

Verbal Judgement of Preference Numerical RatingExtremely Preferred 9Very strong to extremely 8Very strongly preferred 7Strongly to very strongly 6Strongly preferred 5Moderately to strongly 4Moderately preferred 3Equally to moderately 2Equally preferred 1

Step 4


Pairwise comparison matrix showing preferences for the three cars in terms of comfort

Comport CAR A CAR B CAR C

CAR A 1 2 8

CAR B 0,5 1 6

CAR C 0.125 0.166666667 1

Step 5


Synthesizing Judgments


CAR A 1 2 8

CAR B 0,5 1 6

CAR C 0.125 0.166666667 1

1,625 3,166666667 15

Sum the columns in the pairwise comparison matrix

Step 6



CAR A 0.615384615 0.631578947 0.533333

CAR B 0.307692308 0.315789474 0.4

CAR C 0.076923077 0.052631579 0.066667

1 1 1

Divide elements by the column totals

Step 7



CAR A 0.615384615 0.631578947 0.533333 0.593432

CAR B 0.307692308 0.315789474 0.4 0.341161

CAR C 0.076923077 0.052631579 0.066667 0.065407

Sum the rows

Car A 0.593Car B 0.341Car C 0.065

The priority vector for the cars with respect to comfort.

Step 8


Other Pairwise ComparisonsPrice CAR A CAR B CAR C Priority Vector

CAR A 1 0.33333333 0.25 0.123

CAR B 3 1 0.5 0.32

CAR C 4 2 1 0.557

MPG CAR A CAR B CAR C Priority Vector

CAR A 1 0.25 0.166667 0.087

CAR B 4 1 0.333333 0.274

CAR C 6 3 1 0.639

Style CAR A CAR B CAR C Priority Vector

CAR A 1 0.33333333 4 0.265

CAR B 3 1 7 0.655

CAR C 0.25 0.142857143 1 0.08

Step 9


Comport Price MPG Comport Style

Price 1 3 2 2MPG 0.333333333 1 0.25 0.25Comport 0.5 4 1 0.5Style 0.5 4 2 1

Priorities for the overall goal

Price 0.398MPG 0.085Comfort 0.218Style 0.299

Step 10


Developing an overall priority rankingCriteria Price MPG Comport Style

CAR A 0.123 0.087 0.593 0.265

CAR B 0.32 0.274 0.341 0.655

CAR C 0.557 0.639 0.065 0.08

Overall car A priority = .398(0.123)+0.085(0.087)+).218(0.593)+0.299(0.265)=.265

Overall car B priority = .398(0.320)+0.085(0.274)+).218(0.341)+0.299(0.655)=.421

Overall car C priority = .398(0.557)+0.085(0.639)+).218(0.066)+0.299(0.080)=.314

Step 11


Final AHP Ranking of Alternatives

Rank Overall

CAR A 0.421

CAR B 0.314

CAR C 0.265

1

Step 12


Assessing Quality of Insurance Companies usingMultiple Criteria Decision Making

European Journal of Scientific ResearchISSN 1450-216X Vol.54 No.3 (2011), pp.448-457

decision support system mind mapdecision theorytype of problem dss model case study sistem penunjang...

Documents

problems problems

generic situation

generic drucker writes

types of problem peter

unique early manifestation

individual company

problems cause worryproblem

unique events