decision support system modelingmit.wu.ac.th/mit/images/editor/files/ch 03(2).pdf · decision...
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DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM MODELING
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ITM-761 Business Intelligenceดร. สลลิ บญุพราหมณ์
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ความเจรญิของประเทศชาต ิเป็นความเจรญิสว่นรวม ซึ5งเกดิจากผลงานหรอืผลของการกระทําของคนทั ;งชาต ิถอืไดว้า่ทกุคนแบง่หนา้ที5กนัทําประโยชนใ์หแ้กช่าต ิตามความถนัดและความสามารถ และเกื;อกลูกนัและกนั ไมม่ผีูใ้ดจะอยูไ่ดแ้ละทํางานใหแ้กป่ระเทศชาตไิดโ้ดยลําพังตนเอง ทํางานใหแ้กป่ระเทศชาตไิดโ้ดยลําพังตนเอง
พระบรมราโชวาทของ พระบาทสมเด็จพระเจา้อยูห่วัในพธิพีระราชทานปรญิญาบตัรของจฬุาลงกรณ์มหาวทิยาลยั
10 กรกฎาคม 2513
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Decision Support Systems
� Systems designed to support managerial decision-making in unstructured problems
� More recently, emphasis has shifted to inputs from outputs
� Mechanism for interaction between user and
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� Mechanism for interaction between user and components
� Usually built to support solution or evaluate opportunities
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DSS
� A DSS is a methodology that supports decision-making.
� It is:
� Flexible;
� Adaptive;
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� Interactive;
� GUI-based;
� Iterative; and
� Employs modeling.
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Components of DSS
� Subsystems:
� Data management
�Managed by DBMS
� Model management
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� Model management
�Managed by MBMS
� User interface
� Knowledge Management and organizational
knowledge base
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Data Management Subsystem
� Components:
� Database
� Database management system
� Data directory
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� Data directory
� Query facility
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Database
� Interrelated data extracted from various sources,
stored for use by the organization, and queried
� Internal data, usually from TPS
� External data from government agencies, trade
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� External data from government agencies, trade
associations, market research firms, forecasting
firms
� Private data or guidelines used by decision-makers
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Database Management System
� Extracts data
� Manages data and their relationships
� Updates (add, delete, edit, change)
� Retrieves data (accesses it)
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� Retrieves data (accesses it)
� Queries and manipulates data
� Employs data dictionary
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Data Directory
� Catalog of all data
� Contains data definitions
� Answers questions about the availability of data
items
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items
� Source
� Meaning
� Allows for additions, removals, and alterations
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Model Management Subsystem
� Components:
� Model base
� Model base management system
� Modeling language
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� Modeling language
� Model directory
� Model execution, integration, and command
processor
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Models
� Strategic
� Supports top management decisions
� Tactical
� Used primarily by middle management to allocate resources
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resources
� Operational
� Supports daily activities
� Analytical
� Used to perform analysis of data
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Model Base Management System
� Functions:
� Model creation
� Model updates
� Model data manipulation
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� Model data manipulation
� Generation of new routines
� Model directory:
� Catalog of models
� Definitions
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Model Management Activities
� Model execution
� Controls running of model
� Model command processor
� Receives model instructions from user interface
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� Routes instructions to MBMS or module execution or integration functions
� Model integration
� Combines several models’ operations
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User Interface System
Knowledge-based
system
Data management
and DBMS
Model management
and MBMS
User Interface Management System (UIMS)
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Natural Language Processor
Input
Action
Languages
Output
Display
Language
Users Printers, Plotters
PC
Display
View of the User Interface
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User Interface Management System
� GUI
� Natural language processor
� Interacts with model management and data
management subsystems
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management subsystems
� Examples
� Speech recognition
� Display panel
� Tactile interfaces
� Gesture interface
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Knowledge-Based Management System
� Expert or intelligent agent system component
� Complex problem solving
� Enhances operations of other components
� May consist of several systems
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� May consist of several systems
� Often text-oriented DSS
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DSS Hardware
� De facto standard
� Web server with DBMS:
� Operates using browser
� Data stored in variety of databases
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� Data stored in variety of databases
� Can be mainframe, server, workstation, or PC
� Any network type
� Access for mobile devices
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DSS Classifications
� Alter
� Extent to which outputs can directly support or
determine the decision
� Data oriented or model oriented
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� Data oriented or model oriented
� Holsapple and Whinston
� Text oriented, database oriented, spreadsheet
oriented, solver oriented, rule oriented, or
compound
� Intelligent
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(ad hoc analysis)
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DSS Classifications
� Donovan and Madnick
� Institutional
� Problems of recurring nature
� Ad hoc
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� Problems that are not anticipated or are not repetitive
� Hackathorn and Keen
� Personal support, group support, or organizational support
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DSS Classifications
� GSS v. Individual DSS
� Decisions made by entire group or by lone
decision maker
� Custom made v. vendor ready made
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� Custom made v. vendor ready made
� Generic DSS may be modified for use
�Database, models, interface, support are built in
�Addresses repeatable industry problems
�Reduces costs
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Web and DSS
� Data collection
� Communications
� Collaborations
� Download capabilities
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� Download capabilities
� Run on Web servers
� Simplifies integration problems
� Increased usability features
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GDSS
� Supports a group of people making a decision
� Variation
� Multi-user, networked
� Same or different location
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� Same or different location
� Same or different time
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Benefits of working in group
� Easier to understand problem
� More people accountable for decisions
� Better at catching errors
� Synergistic effects
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� Synergistic effects
� More people committed to implementation
� Reduces sources of resistance to implementation
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Traps and difficulties
� Members of a group may have different
�Objectives
� Information
�Competencies
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�Competencies
� A group may have difficulty
�Communicating information between members
�Coordinating implementation of policies
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� Interpersonal dynamics affects outcomes
�Groupthink
�Domination by strong personalities
�Fear of expressing opinion
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�Fear of expressing opinion
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� At the First International Conference on Decision
Support Systems in 1981, Peter G. W. Keen pointed
out that the fundamental model of DSS—the lonely
decision maker is truly in rare cases.
Evolution
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decision maker is truly in rare cases.
� In real organizations, be they public or private,
Japanese, European, or American, most decisions
are taken only after extensive consultation.
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� A DSS is usually designed to be used by a particular
decision-maker. That is, a decision is made basically
from the input provided by one particular person.
� Group DSSs are designed to be used by more than
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� Group DSSs are designed to be used by more than
one decision maker. These systems are useful for
committees, review panels, board meetings, task
forces, and decision making sessions that require the
input of several decision makers.
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Definition
� “ A GDSS consists of a set of software, hardware,
and language components and procedures that
support a group of people engaged in a decision-
related meeting.” (Huber, 1982)
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related meeting.” (Huber, 1982)
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� DeSanctis and Gullupe define a GDSS as an
interactive, computer-based system that facilitates
solution of unstructured and semistructured
problems by a set of decision-makers working as a
group.
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group.
� This definition is very similar to the definition of DSS.
The only difference is the existence of the group
versus individual decision makers. By this definition,
the components of a GDSS, hardware, software,
people, and procedures, are basically the same as the
components of DSS in general.
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� An important point to note is that the group using the
GDSS may not make the ultimate decision.
� It may be creating and/or reviewing alternatives to be
submitted as a short list to the next level in the
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submitted as a short list to the next level in the
organizational hierarchy.
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� GDSS can be viewed as subsuming conventional DSS
within it.
� That is, the concepts of model base, database, and
human interface all apply.
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human interface all apply.
� Thus, as group size shrinks to one, a GDSS reduces to
a DSS.
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Conversely, in moving from a DSS to GDSS, some new
requirements are introduced:
� The addition of communications capabilities
� Enhancement of the model base to provide voting,
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� Enhancement of the model base to provide voting,
ranking, rating, and so on, for developing consensus.
� Greater system reliability
� Enhance physical facilities
� Increased setup before use of the system
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To be more specific, consider the hardware/software
components of a GDSS.
The software components include:
� Database capabilities
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� Database capabilities
� Modeling capabilities
� Dialog management with multiple-user access
� Specialized application program to facilitate group
access
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GDSS architecture
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The hardware components of GDSS include:
� General purpose I/O devices (terminal, CRT, voice
I/O)
� Central processor
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� Central processor
� Common viewing screen (for the group) or individual
monitor (for each participant)
� A network system linking the different
sited/participants to each other
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� Although most group decision meetings are face-to-
face, technology is starting to be applied to make it
possible for participants to be separated in space
and/or time.
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and/or time.
� These technologically enhanced meetings include
computer conferences and audio and video
teleconferences.
� DeSanctis and Gallupe discuss the four combinations
of proximity and separation in space and in time.
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Components of a GDSS and GDSS Software
� Database
� Model base
� Dialogue manager
� Communication capability
�
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� Special software (also called GroupWare)
� For example Lotus Notes
� people located around the world work on the same project, documents, and files, efficiently and at the same time
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� Same time, same place
� Same time, different place* (ระยะใกล)้� Same time, different place**(ระยะไกล)� Different time, different place
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� Different time, different place
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GDSS Alternatives
Local area
decision network
Wide area
decision network
highDecision frequency
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Decision
roomTeleconferencing
Location of group members
close distant
lowDecision frequency
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1. Decision room
� In the decision room GDSS, decision-makers sit
around a horseshoe-shaped desk facing a large
screen.
� Each participant has access to a terminal; for
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� Each participant has access to a terminal; for
individual participant input, but at the same time can
see the large screen.
� The large screen is used to summarize the input from
individual participants.
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� The motivation for creating a decision room comes
from the observation that in almost all organization
office automation has resulted in terminals being
ubiquitous in work areas.
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ubiquitous in work areas.
� However, as soon as one-steps into the conference
room, technology is a telephone and high
technology is a speakerphone. The personal and
online computer capabilities used routinely
elsewhere are not available.
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� In a typical decision room, terminals (or PCs) are not
provided at some or all of the seating positions at a
conference table.
� Input of these terminals is by keyboard, mouse, touch-
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� Input of these terminals is by keyboard, mouse, touch-
screen, or some combination of these.
� Participants can do “private work” at their individual
displays.
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� One member of the group (as a “chauffeur”) operates
the software needed to create the “public” display
that can be seen by everyone.
� In some rooms, multiple public screens are provided
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� In some rooms, multiple public screens are provided
where one screen is used for the current discussion
and the others for reference or slowly changing
information.
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� Because decision rooms are designed for senior
managers, they tend to have an “executive feel” to
them.
� Even the experimental laboratories are being created
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� Even the experimental laboratories are being created
with plush carpeting and quality furnishings.
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2. Local decision network (LDN)
� In LDN, the participants are dispersed in a limited
geographical area. They can participate from their
own offices and express their views.
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� This architecture includes a central processor with
dedicated software for storing the results.
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3. Teleconferencing
Terminal
Public screen
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Video camera
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� Teleconferencing enables decision-makers in
scattered geographic regions to see and hear each
other as they participate in group decision-making.
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4. Remote decision making
� Remote decision making advocates “uninterrupted
communication” on a regular basis among a fixed
number of decision makers in a geographically
dispersed organization.
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dispersed organization.
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� In this type of architecture there is no need to
schedule meeting in advance as in teleconferencing.
� A participant may send his or her input to central
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� A participant may send his or her input to central
database (electronic mailbox); then the other
participants respond to this input.
� Eventually a decision is made by consensus.
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GDSS in use
� Electronic meeting system (Same time, same place)
� Electronic meeting room
� Electronic boardroom
� War room
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� War room
� Workflow system (Different time, different place)
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Characteristics of GDSS
� Special design
� A number of specialized software packages called
groupware support all aspects of group decision
making.
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making.
� These packages allow two or more individuals in
the group to effectively work together to use word
processing, database, spreadsheet, and related
software packages.
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� In some cases, the software packages are modified
to allow access by a number of group numbers.
�Ease of use
�Specific and general support
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�Specific and general support
� งานวจิัยที5ศกึษาการใชง้านของ Groupware เป็นงานในสาขา Computer-supported cooperative work(CSCW)
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� Groupware = Computer-based systems that support
groups of people engaged in a common task (or goal)
and that provide an interface to a shared
environment.
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� GDSS should provide solutions for both specific and
general problems.
� Generalized software packages can assist in many
group decision-making settings.
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� Some group situations, however, call for highly
specific, tailor-made GDSS approaches. These
settings may require development of specialized
software procedures.
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software procedures.
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Suppression of negative group behavior
� Dominant individuals can take over the discussion,
which can prevent other members of the group
from presenting creative alternatives.
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� Many GDSS designers are developing software and
hardware systems that will reduce the types of
problems.
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Support of positive group behavior
� For example, the Delphi approach allows group
decision making in which decision makers are
geographically dispersed throughout the country or
the world.
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GDSS capabilities
Word processing and text manipulation
� Group members need access to and support from
word processing programs and text manipulation
packages.
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packages.
� These packages must go beyond traditional word
processing to provide multiple group members access
to common files.
� This access allows several members in a group setting
to work on common documents at the same time,
including reports, forecasts, and proposals.
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Database and file manipulation
� Database capabilities are often a requirement in group
decision making setting.
� In some cases, these capabilities allow decision
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� In some cases, these capabilities allow decision
makers to obtain information needed to make
effective group decisions.
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Worksheet or spreadsheet abilities
� If group decision support systems become more
important in business, worksheet packages may
start to incorporate group features.
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start to incorporate group features.
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Graphics packages
� Graphical packages should allow the users to
develop the attractive and informative
illustrations, drawing, and pictures that can be
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illustrations, drawing, and pictures that can be
directly incorporated into reports and other
documents.
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Decision making aids
� Includes computer programs that can assist in listing
alternatives, analyzing potential solutions,
incorporating subjective information into decisions,
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incorporating subjective information into decisions,
and ranking alternatives using a variety of methods.
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Communications facilities
� LAN and telecommunication.
Help facilities
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Help facilities
� GDSS were developed in response to growing
concern over the quality and effectiveness of
meetings.
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GDSS can support
� Problem formulation
� Analysis
� Choice
� implementation
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� implementation
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Role of GDSS
� On-line entry and solution of decision model
� Bookkeeping
� Anonymous discussion and sharing of ideas
�Required networked system
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�Required networked system
�Encourages quiet individuals to contribute to
discussion
�Discourages intimidation and domination of
discussion
� Automated vote tally and summary of results
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Potential benefits of GDSS
� More thorough exploration of values
� Better sharing of information
� More creative option generation
� More systematic option evaluation
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� More systematic option evaluation
� Increased communication
� Increased participation
� Increased group cohesion
� Increased acceptance of group decision