Decision Support & Decision Support & Executive Information Executive Information Systems:Systems: - - TThe Strategic Choice he Strategic Choice ApproachApproach

An Example of Soft An Example of Soft Operational ResearchOperational Research

Amare Michael DestaAmare Michael Desta

What does “Soft” OR What does “Soft” OR Mean?Mean?

NotNot soft headed, irrational or soft headed, irrational or lacking in rigour;lacking in rigour;

ButBut interpretative, qualitative and interpretative, qualitative and an alternative to quantitative an alternative to quantitative methods.methods.

Rational Comprehensive Rational Comprehensive Planning – A ‘Hard’ Decision Planning – A ‘Hard’ Decision

Making ParadigmMaking Paradigm

Identify your goal or objective;Identify your goal or objective; Identify your possible courses of Identify your possible courses of

action;action; Predict the consequences of your Predict the consequences of your

possible actions;possible actions; Evaluate the consequences of your Evaluate the consequences of your

possible actions;possible actions; Select the action that best achieves Select the action that best achieves

your objective or goal.your objective or goal.

Hard v Soft Analytical Hard v Soft Analytical CharacteristicsCharacteristics

HardHard Data availableData available Single objective Single objective

and optimisationand optimisation People are passivePeople are passive Attempts to Attempts to

abolish abolish uncertaintyuncertainty

SoftSoft Data UnavailableData Unavailable Multiple objectives Multiple objectives

and non-and non-optimisationoptimisation

People are active People are active subjectssubjects

Accepts uncertainty Accepts uncertainty and encourages and encourages flexibilityflexibility

Contribution of Soft ORContribution of Soft OR

Some approaches view organisations Some approaches view organisations as machines that can be fine tuned;as machines that can be fine tuned;

Soft OR views organisations as Soft OR views organisations as groups of humans each with their groups of humans each with their own interests and motivations;own interests and motivations;

Soft OR contributes to Soft OR contributes to understanding the dynamics upon understanding the dynamics upon which organisations work.which organisations work.

Contribution of Soft ORContribution of Soft OR

Soft OR techniques allow a common Soft OR techniques allow a common understanding of perspectives, roles, understanding of perspectives, roles, worldviews and their worldviews and their interrelationships;interrelationships;

They make these perspectives explicit, They make these perspectives explicit, so that they can be understood by so that they can be understood by others, discussed and acted upon.others, discussed and acted upon.

Common Characteristics Common Characteristics of Soft OR Techniquesof Soft OR Techniques

Do not claim to be able to define Do not claim to be able to define what is true;what is true;

They try to interpret, define, They try to interpret, define, explore, use (and possibly change) explore, use (and possibly change) various perspectives in the various perspectives in the organisation;organisation;

They enhance learning, They enhance learning, understanding and debate.understanding and debate.

Hard v Soft ORHard v Soft OR

Hard OR is:Hard OR is:

• TangibleTangible

• Easy to explainEasy to explain

• Easy to useEasy to use

Soft OR is:Soft OR is:

• Rather intangibleRather intangible

• Harder to explainHarder to explain

• Harder to useHarder to use

Problem Structuring Problem Structuring MethodsMethods

Primary focus is usually on the Primary focus is usually on the people involved with the problem;people involved with the problem;

Secondary focus will be on the Secondary focus will be on the problem itself;problem itself;

This can change our view of what This can change our view of what we mean by a successful we mean by a successful intervention.intervention.

Origins of the ApproachOrigins of the Approach

• More empirical than theoretical;More empirical than theoretical;• Describes some methods for dealing with Describes some methods for dealing with

complex decision problems;complex decision problems;• Based on observations of how managers Based on observations of how managers

cope with dilemmas;cope with dilemmas;• A mixture of practical and intuitive A mixture of practical and intuitive

methods;methods;• Recognises the importance of uncertainty, Recognises the importance of uncertainty,

and responses to types of uncertainty.and responses to types of uncertainty.

How do we respond to this choice?

Uncertainty about guiding values

Uncertainty about our working environment

Uncertainty about related agendas

We need clearer policies

We need more information

We need broader perspectives

UV UE

UR

Shape

Design Compare

Choose

Issues

ProblemFocus

Range of Strategies

PreferencesAndUncertainties

DecisionsProgressPackage

Crime is a real problem in this country. We are spending more and more on locking up increasing numbers of people in prisons, yet crime goes on rising. Many of those in prison are there for reasons connected with medical problems (e.g. drug addiction, mental illness) yet when they come out these problems are unresolved and so they go straight back to crime. Perhaps the answer is longer prison sentences.

Dynamics of Strategic Dynamics of Strategic ChoiceChoice

Shaping ModeShaping Mode

Decision areas are described as Decision areas are described as questions – areas where questions – areas where alternative courses of action are alternative courses of action are possible;possible;

The decisions are then presented The decisions are then presented on a decision graph.on a decision graph.

Build morePrisons?

Improve prisonMedical care

Increase rewardsFor informing?Impose longer

Sentences?

Identify Problem FocusIdentify Problem Focus

Select three or four decision areas;Select three or four decision areas; Usually these are important, Usually these are important,

urgent and/or connected;urgent and/or connected; Add any factors as necessary to Add any factors as necessary to

the uncertainty list.the uncertainty list.

Example Problem FocusExample Problem Focus

Build more prisons?Build more prisons? Impose longer sentences?Impose longer sentences? Increase rewards for informing?Increase rewards for informing?

Can we find more sites to build Can we find more sites to build more prisons (UE)?more prisons (UE)?

Dynamics of Strategic Dynamics of Strategic ChoiceChoice

Designing ModeDesigning Mode

For each problem focus we:For each problem focus we:

List a small number actions in each List a small number actions in each area;area;

List incompatible options;List incompatible options; List all feasible decision schemes by List all feasible decision schemes by

selecting an action from each area.selecting an action from each area.

Example Option GraphExample Option GraphLines Show Lines Show

IncompatibilitiesIncompatibilitiesBuild More Prisons?

Increase RewardsFor Informing?

Impose Longer Sentences?

No Yes Five More

YesTen More

No

Yes

No Yes

Feasible Decision Feasible Decision SchemesSchemes

SchemeScheme Build Build more more prisons?prisons?

Longer Longer sentencesentences?s?

Increase Increase reward reward for for informinginforming??

AA NoNo NoNo NoNo

BB YesYes

Five Five moremore

YesYes YesYes

CC YesYes

Ten moreTen moreYesYes YesYes

Uncertainty ListUncertainty List

The list of uncertainties now has The list of uncertainties now has two more factors:two more factors:

1.1. Can we find sites for more prisons Can we find sites for more prisons (UE)?(UE)?

2.2. Will ten prisons be too many (UE)?Will ten prisons be too many (UE)?3.3. Will Government/legal profession Will Government/legal profession

support longer sentences (UV)?support longer sentences (UV)?

Dynamics of Strategic Dynamics of Strategic ChoiceChoice

Comparing ModeComparing Mode

In this mode we compare the In this mode we compare the decision schemes using:decision schemes using:

1.1. Identifying comparison areas;Identifying comparison areas;

2.2. Within each area assign a value Within each area assign a value to each scheme.to each scheme.

Example Comparison Example Comparison AreasAreas

We can compare each scheme in We can compare each scheme in terms of:terms of:

1.1. Capital cost (£ millions);Capital cost (£ millions);2.2. Running costs (£ millions);Running costs (£ millions);3.3. Acceptability to government (1–10 Acceptability to government (1–10

scale in which 1 is not acceptable) ;scale in which 1 is not acceptable) ;4.4. Acceptability to the public (1-10 Acceptability to the public (1-10

scale).scale).

Comparison of SchemesComparison of Schemes

AA BB CC

Capital Capital CostCost

00 200200 400400

Running Running CostCost

00 4040 7575

Gov. Gov. ViewView

33 55 99

Public Public ViewView

55 33 11

Comparison SchemesComparison Schemes

In comparing schemes we must In comparing schemes we must always be aware of the uncertainty always be aware of the uncertainty areas. In comparing schemes A areas. In comparing schemes A and B we must consider the and B we must consider the uncertainties associated with uncertainties associated with scheme B.scheme B.

Dynamics of Strategic Dynamics of Strategic ChoiceChoice

Choosing ModeChoosing Mode

We construct a commitment We construct a commitment package which consists of:package which consists of:

1.1. Decisions taken now;Decisions taken now;

2.2. Explorations to reduce uncertainty;Explorations to reduce uncertainty;

3.3. Decisions to be deferred until later;Decisions to be deferred until later;

4.4. Contingency plans.Contingency plans.

Example Commitment Example Commitment PackagePackage

Decisions taken now – none;Decisions taken now – none; ExplorationsExplorations

-- identify sites for 5 prisons;identify sites for 5 prisons;-- consult government/legal consult government/legal agencies agencies over longer sentences;over longer sentences;

Decisions deferred – final decision Decisions deferred – final decision on scheme B;on scheme B;

Contingency plans – none.Contingency plans – none.

Conclusions Conclusions

TechnologyTechnology

Provides a set of tools to facilitate Provides a set of tools to facilitate and structure communication. The and structure communication. The way that discussion sessions are way that discussion sessions are structured and run is important.structured and run is important.

Conclusions (Contd…)Conclusions (Contd…)

OrganisationOrganisationThe emphasis is on temporary The emphasis is on temporary groupings of staff that cut across groupings of staff that cut across organisational boundaries.organisational boundaries.

ProcessProcessEmphasis is on flexibility rather than Emphasis is on flexibility rather than strict adherence to procedures.strict adherence to procedures.

Conclusions (Contd…)Conclusions (Contd…)

ProductsProducts

The process can produce not only The process can produce not only visible products like agreed actions visible products like agreed actions and policy changes, but also and policy changes, but also invisible products in the form of invisible products in the form of changed perceptions and views of changed perceptions and views of participants.participants.

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