debrief on: the seattle region’s roads & transit prop 1

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Prepared for Presentation to the American Dream Coalition By Emory Bundy, Jim MacIsaac and Doug Simpson November 11, 2007 Defeated on Nov 7, 2007

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Prepared for Presentation to the American Dream Coalition By Emory Bundy, Jim MacIsaac and Doug Simpson November 11, 2007. Defeated on Nov 7, 2007. Debrief on: The Seattle Region’s Roads & Transit Prop 1. What Was the R&T Package?. RTID (Regional Roads Package) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Debrief on: The Seattle Region’s Roads & Transit Prop 1

Prepared for Presentation to the

American Dream Coalition

By

Emory Bundy, Jim MacIsaac and Doug Simpson

November 11, 2007

Defeated on Nov 7, 2007

Page 2: Debrief on: The Seattle Region’s Roads & Transit Prop 1

11/11/2007 James E. MacIsaac, P.E. 2

Page 3: Debrief on: The Seattle Region’s Roads & Transit Prop 1

11/11/2007 James E. MacIsaac, P.E. 3

Page 4: Debrief on: The Seattle Region’s Roads & Transit Prop 1

11/11/2007 James E. MacIsaac, P.E. 4

Page 5: Debrief on: The Seattle Region’s Roads & Transit Prop 1

11/11/2007 James E. MacIsaac, P.E. 5

Page 6: Debrief on: The Seattle Region’s Roads & Transit Prop 1

What Was the R&T Package? RTID (Regional Roads Package)

Initially an $18 billion capital program to improve highways of statewide significance

Reduced by half to allow a “Balanced” Roads and Transit Package

Sound Transit ST2 PackageStarted out as a Phase 2 program of 80 transit projects

desired by participating agenciesEmerged as mostly a 50-mile extension of Sound

Transit’s Light Rail System

11/11/2007 6James E. MacIsaac, P.E.

Page 7: Debrief on: The Seattle Region’s Roads & Transit Prop 1

11/11/2007

Central Link LRTPromise at $2.3 B Delivery at $4.2 B

18 miles with12 Stations

24 miles with21 Stations

2016

?

??

ST1/ST2 LRT Plan

70 miles with34 Stations

Total - $21 Billion7James E. MacIsaac, P.E.

Completionby 2006

“InitialSegment”by 2010

Page 8: Debrief on: The Seattle Region’s Roads & Transit Prop 1

All-or-Nothing Ballot

Forced by State Legislature seeking combined support

Total Package Tax: +1.0% Sales Tax plus 0.8% MVET

20% of state sales tax would go to transit

Tax Sunset YearsRTID – Would Sunset in 2037

ST1 & ST2 – Hopeful reduction after 2057 bond payoff (but no law commitment)

11/11/2007 8James E. MacIsaac, P.E.

Page 9: Debrief on: The Seattle Region’s Roads & Transit Prop 1

Campaign Approach

It Costs too much …

And it Does so Little!

11/11/2007 James E. MacIsaac, P.E. 9

Page 10: Debrief on: The Seattle Region’s Roads & Transit Prop 1

R&T Package Cost

Cap Cost 2006$ ST1 Extend N.A.ST2 $11 bRTID $7 bTotals $18 b

11/11/2007 James E. MacIsaac, P.E. 10

Full Cost

YOE$

N.A.

$23.6 b

$14.5 b

$38.1 b

2008-2027 (20-year Capital Development Period)

Post 2027 Bond Interest $9.3 b $47.4 b

Page 11: Debrief on: The Seattle Region’s Roads & Transit Prop 1

$157 Billion R&T Tax Proposal*

RTID (Roads) – $8.0 b $16 b ST1 Extension – $14.8 b $64 b Sound Transit – $11.7 b $77 b Total Tax Authorization $34.5 b $157 Billion

Total Tax Collections: 2008-27 2008-57

(10%)

11/11/2007 11James E. MacIsaac, P.E.

* Source: Sound Transit estimates thru 2040, extended to 2057.

Why thru 2057 for ST2?Because Sales Tax Revenues will be used to secure the ST2 Bonds with payoff extending thru 2057.ST uses legal means to extend tax collections.

Page 12: Debrief on: The Seattle Region’s Roads & Transit Prop 1

Post-Elect Advise to Supporters "Release one price tag and don't

mention another number, ever. So many cost figures were discussed, the public was never certain which was correct. The mentality became, ‘if the experts don't know the true cost, how would we?’ “ … Seattle Times

11/11/2007 James E. MacIsaac, P.E. 12

Page 13: Debrief on: The Seattle Region’s Roads & Transit Prop 1

Regional Transit Ridership

Average Weekday: 2030 w/o ST2*

Total Person Trips 13,200,000 Total Transit Trips** 482,000 Transit Mode Share*** 3.7%

Transit “Boardings” 661,000 Transfer Rate 1.37

* Includes ST1 With Central Link from Airport to UW Stadium.** Source: ST Making Connections, Appendix C, June 2007

With ST2 Change

13,200,000 556,000 +74,000 4.2% +0.5%

818,000 +157,000 1.47 2.12

Within Sound Transit Service Area

11/11/2007 13James E. MacIsaac, P.E.

*** 2006 Mode Share – 2.9%; Transfer Rate – 1.29.

Page 14: Debrief on: The Seattle Region’s Roads & Transit Prop 1

ST2 Effect on Regional Travel ST1 and ST2 reflect a Light Rail Transit Overlay of transit

services to downtown Seattle But downtown Seattle represents only 10% of Region’s jobs The ST2 effect on the Balance of the Region is negligible Following are proportions of tri-county trips generated by three

subsectors and the share of those trips served by transit:*

Percent of Transit Mode Shares Region Subsector Total Trips 1998 Base 2030 w/ST1&2 Seattle CBD 5%- 27% 44% Balance of Seattle 20-18% 4.5% 6.5% Balance of Region 75-77% 0.5% 0.7% Total Region 100% 2.7% 3.7%

*Source: PSRC 2006 MTP Update.

11/11/2007 14James E. MacIsaac, P.E.

Page 15: Debrief on: The Seattle Region’s Roads & Transit Prop 1

Our Campaign Approach “It Costs too much, and does so little”

$157 BILLION Dollars <ka-ching>

Heerree’s Doug

11/11/2007 15James E. MacIsaac, P.E.

Page 16: Debrief on: The Seattle Region’s Roads & Transit Prop 1

11/11/2007 James E. MacIsaac, P.E. 16