Dealing with Uncertainty:

Statewide Retention Conference, March 5, 2008Presenters: Beckie Hermansen, Craig Mathie, Mat Barreiro

How Snow College students “START SMART”

Exchange

EXCHANGEOf student’s time, efforts, knowledge

for education offered by the

institution

Student Institution

Explicit Contracts and Implicit Contracts Little or no guarantee = uncertainty

Uncertainty

Uncertainty

Anticipatory Socialization

Persistence and

Graduation

Postsecondary Socialization

Socialization process marked by high levels

of uncertainty and increased risk of exit from the institution

Registration Graduation

Socialization for students not participation in an orientation

Anticipatory Socialization (Orientation)

Registration Graduation

Socialization process marked by

lower levels of uncertainty and

lowered risk of pre-mature departure

Socialization for students participating in an orientation

Persistence Study Model

CollegePersistence

First Semester G

PA

First Year GPA

Graduation Rates

Departure over time

Transfer Rates

Survival over time

Start Smart Orientation• Began Fall 2000• Faculty Section Leaders• 2 sophomore mentors• Two full-days prior to fall semester (activities, workshops,

resources)• Three additional meetings (September, October, November)• Two one-on-one meetings with Section Leader• Text: Off to College• Finding your Niche exercise and Freshman Student

Survey • Grading is Credit or Non-Credit• Enrollment not required but strongly encouraged• Only offered Fall semester

Start Smart—the Experience!!!• Move in early!!!• Welcome Assembly• Section Meetings

(2)• Ice Breaker Games• Library

Tour/Activity• Computer

Lab/Email• Majors Meetings• Life Skills

Workshops• ID Card• Look for Jobs• Find your classes• Practical advice (“the

ropes”)

• Cafeteria Card• Bookstore• Registration• Cashiers/Pay Bill• Advisement• Parent’s

Workshop(s)• President’s BBQ• Huge Evening

Activity• New Student

Survey

Section Meeting :• College

Adjustment• Roommates• Dealing with

Professors• Dealing with

Parents• Homesickness• College Events• Basic Study

Advice• Question/Answer

Section Meeting :• College Life• Test Anxiety• More Study Skills• Academic

Resources• Personal

Resources• Maintaining

Health• Personal

Management• Question/Answer

Section Meeting (1)• End of Term

Advice• Preparing for

Finals• “Finding you

Niche”• Post Student

Survey• Progress

Reflection• Question/Answer

Individual Meetings

with Faculty Section Leader

Individual Meetings

with Faculty Section Leader

Often one of the section meetings is a dinner or similar event held in the faculty member’s home. Faculty are reimbursed up to $75 for food expenses.

2 DAYS SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER

Research QuestionsFirst Semester GPA

First Year GPA

Graduation Rates

Transfer Rates

Depart over Time

Survival over Time

Do Start Smart students experience higher first semester and first year cumulative GPAs than non-Start Smart students?

Do Start Smart students have higher graduation rates?

Do Start Smart students experience less attrition after the first full year of college than non-Start Smart students?

Do Start Smart students have higher transfer rates?

Descriptive Statistics (N = 6,737)

• 6 Cohorts (2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005)

• 3,764 Start Smart; 2,973 non-Start Smart• 4,153 (62%) female; 2,584 (38%) male• Average age = 19• White = 93.1%• 88.8% Full-time, 11.2% Part-time• 87.8% Resident, 12.2% Non-Resident• Average High school GPA = 3.4• Average ACT score = 20.65 (96% reported

a score)• Degree = 36.5% awarded, 63.5% not

awarded

RQ1: Comparing 1st semester GPA:

• Multiple Regression on First Semester Cumulative GPA : (r2) = .391

• Significant relationships:• ACT score (t(6462) = 26.403, p = .000• Start Smart (t(6462) = 15.496, p = .000)• Gender (t(6462) = -11.693, p = .000)• High school GPA (t(6462) = 5.586, p = .000)

This indicated a relationship between Start Smart enrollment and 1st semester cumulative GPA; however, significant relationships were also found for ACT score, gender (female), and high school GPA. Start Smart indirectly influenced 1st semester cumulative grades to be at least one grade higher than non-Start Smart students.

Averages:

T1 GPA = 2.84High school GPA =3.4ACT Score = 20.65

RQ1: Comparing 1st semester GPA:

Not Start Smart Start Smart0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1.88

2.362.16

2.662.86

3.193.17

3.41

1st Term Cumulative GPA

GNSTACTHSGPAAll

RQ1: Comparing 2nd semester GPA:

• Multiple Regression on First Year Cumulative GPA, (r2) = .337

• Significant relationships:• ACT Score (t(5157) = 22.608, p = .000)• Gender (t(5157) = -10.711, p = .000)• Start Smart (t(5157) = 7.165, p = .000)• High school GPA t(5157) = 3.554, p = .000

Consistent with 1st semester findings, a relationship was found between Start Smart and 2nd semester cumulative GPA. Additional significant relationships were found for ACT score, gender (female), and high school GPA. Start Smart students generally had 2nd semester cumulative GPAs approximately one grade higher than their non-Start Smart peers.

RQ1:

Comparing 2nd semester GPA:

Averages:

T2 GPA = 2.89High school GPA =3.4ACT Score = 20.65

Not Start Smart Start Smart0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1.91

2.252.23

2.58

2.87

3.123.183.38

1st Year Cumulative GPA

GNSTACTHSGPAAll

RQ2:

Comparing Graduation Rates

• Correlation on Graduation Rate and Group, r = .185, α = .01Descriptive Comparison between START SMART and non START SMART Graduation

AA AS ASB* APE AAS CER* % Graduates

Start Smart 268 1233 43 2 36 16 1,598/ 64% (tot)

Non-Start Smart 161 627 16 4 27 27 862/ 35% (tot)

Start Smart students graduated almost 2 to 1 (1.8:1.0) compared to non-Start Smart students by the 4th semester.

Non-Start Smart Start Smart0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

862

1598

Start Smart vs. non-Start Smart Graduates

TOTAL

RQ3: Comparing withdrawal over

time• Survival Analysis

• Dependent Variable = Time and Status -- for this cohort there were 12 time intervals or semesters, excluding summer terms-- status was either censored (no event) or uncensored (terminating event)

• Independent Variables =

~ Age~ Gender~ Ethnicity~ High School GPA~ ACT Score~ Start Smart

RQ3:Predicted Survival and Hazard Functions for the Fall 200 Freshman Cohort

(00 equals non-Start Smart or Orientation participants; 1.00 = Start Smart Orientation students).Mean Life statistic: Start Smart = 4.0 semesters/ non-SS = 3.9 semesters

Comparing withdrawal over time

1086420

TIME

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

Cu

m S

urv

iva

l

1-censored

0-censored

1

0

CRS01

Survival Functions

RQ3:Predicted Survival and Hazard Functions for the Fall 200 Freshman Cohort

(00 equals non-Start Smart or Orientation participants; 1.00 = Start Smart Orientation students).Mean Life statistic: Start Smart = 3.4 semesters/ non-SS = 3.1 semesters

Comparing withdrawal by 5th semester

420

TIME

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

Cu

m S

urv

iva

l

1-censored

0-censored

1

0

CRS01

Survival Functions

RQ4:

Comparing Transfer Rates

• Pearson Correlation: r = -.079; α = .05

44

15

30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

GNST

N-GNST Non-Start Smart Transfer Rate = 116/556 or 21%

Start Smart Transfer Rate = 96/587 or 16%

It seemed that Start Smart students were less likely to transfer than their non-Start Smart peers.

Implications• Survival analysis:

– Incorporating time as a dependent variable (whether and when a terminating event occurs)

• Different elements affecting persistence:– Pre-college characteristics– Collegiate characteristics

• Predictive ability:– Logistic regression goes beyond correlation to

prediction– CumGPA = Start Smart + ACT + HSGPA + Gender

+ Constant

• In-depth assessment of effectiveness– Fiscal support of Start Smart– Comprehensive program assessment for

accreditation– Support to competing enrollments and retention

Recommendations• Interactions between predictors and time:

– Highlight key departure times– Determine transient or permanent effects– Investigate decision-making processes at departure (the

m-factor)– Develop responsive programs or policies at key

departure times– Repetitive studies of subsequent cohorts– Comparative studies with “program-change” cohorts

• Program Format:– New syllabus with GE Outcomes foundation– Start Smart working in tandem with Capstone– E-portfolios– Assessment of outcome achievement through pre and

post-testing– More student success driven with a GE outcome base

and enhanced faculty support (i.e. learning activities driven by GE outcomes).

– Different text and meeting times (more substance)– Mandatory enrollment?

Questions?

THANK YOU!

For copies of this presentation please go to http://www.snow.edu/ir/presentations.html