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Dealing with North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Six Party Talks simulation briefing

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Dealing with North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons. Six Party Talks simulation briefing. Nuclear Proliferation. Spread of nuclear weapons to new countries Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Rules on who can have nuclear weapons International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitored Mixed record. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Dealing with North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons

Dealing with North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons

Six Party Talks simulation briefing

Page 2: Dealing with North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons

Nuclear Proliferation• Spread of nuclear weapons

to new countries• Nuclear Non-Proliferation

Treaty (NPT)– Rules on who can have

nuclear weapons– International Atomic Energy

Agency (IAEA) monitored• Mixed record

Page 3: Dealing with North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons
Page 4: Dealing with North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons

The Central Issue• North Korea’s Nuclear

Weapons program• Plutonium Program

– Estimated to have enough material for 3-15 bombs

– Test proves weaponization• How much do they have?

– Existing Reactors actively producing more fissile material

• Highly Enriched Uranium Program– Secret program disclosed in

2002

Page 5: Dealing with North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons

Central Issue• North Korea has other

threatening programs as well– ICBMs– 1,000,000+ man army– Artillery surrounds

Seoul– Chemical and

Biological Weapons– Counterfeit currency– Smuggling

• Willing to sell?

Page 6: Dealing with North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons

Central Issue• North Korea is very poor and in desperate need

of assistance

Page 7: Dealing with North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons

History• 1994 Crisis

– DPRK leaves NPT, kicks out IAEA inspectors

– De-fuels Yongboyng reactor– US engages in bi-lateral

negotiations– War Scare, Jimmy Carter

intervenes– Agreed Framework

• DPRK trades nuclear program for economic and energy assistance

• Sequential deal– KEDO

• Multi-national group to build 2 LWR in North

• Japan, South Korea pay most of the bill

Page 8: Dealing with North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons

History• Sunshine Policy

– South engages North• 1998 Missile Test• Failed deal in 2000

– Albright visits, no deal reached

• 2002 Kelly Mission– US outs HEU program– NK claims to have a bomb

• Axis of Evil Speech• Move to Six Party Talks

Page 9: Dealing with North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons

Parties

• North Korea• South Korea• China• Japan• Russia• USA

Page 10: Dealing with North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons

Six Party Talks• First 3 rounds end with

no progress• 2005: Round 4 of talks

– Supposed agreement to trade nuclear reactors for security agreements and assistance

– Deal falls apart days after its announced

• July 2006: North Korea tests Taepodong-2 and several short-range missiles

Page 11: Dealing with North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons

Nuclear Test• October 2006: North

Korea conducts a nuclear test– 8th declared nuclear

power– Outrage from

international community• Policy Challenges

– Non-proliferation to counter-proliferation

– Conventional deterrence to nuclear deterrence

Page 12: Dealing with North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons

Questionable Assumptions• The North’s Pending Economic Collapse?

– Things keep getting worse but the regime is still in power

• The North’s (and Kim Jong Il’s) Rationality?– Rational or irrational actors?

• Nuclear issue at the top of the agenda?– Missiles, HR, conventional arms, abducted citizens,

humanitarian crisis• Multilateral or Bilateral?

– Who can actually cut a deal?– Who actually has influence and is willing to use it?

Page 13: Dealing with North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons

The Road Ahead• Limited leverage• High cost of conflict• Status of February

2007 agreement?• Can we live with a

Nuclear North Korea?– What price are you

willing to pay for counter-proliferation?

– What signal does this send to other nuclear-aspiring nations?

Page 14: Dealing with North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons

Your Goal• Simulation of the Six Party Talks• Country Teams

– Assigned Monday, work together in class next week• Opening Session Monday 6 August

– PowerPoint Presentations to the group• Negotiations Friday 10 August

– Time to arrange meetings and craft an agreement• http://nw08.american.edu/~phoward/sixpartytalks.htm


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