dcf analysis (1)

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Unlevered Free Cash Flow Calculation Calendar Year Ending December 2007A 2008P 2009P 2010E EBIT $120.0 $126.2 $133.2 $137.7 Plus: Non-deductible Goodwill Amort. - - - - EBITA $120.0 $126.2 $133.2 $137.7 Less: Provision for Taxes (42.0) (44.2) (46.6) (48.2) Unlevered Net Income $78.0 $82.0 $86.6 $89.5 Plus: D&A (excl. non-deductible GW a 15.3 15.9 16.7 16.0 Less: Capital Expenditures (18.0) (16.0) (14.1) (14.6) Less: Increase in Net Working Capita (9.5) 8.3 3.1 3.2 Unlevered Free Cash Flow $65.8 $90.2 $92.3 $94.2 DCF Analysis (2008-2012): EBITDA Multiple Method Total Enterprise Value Terminal EBITDA Multiple 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x Discount 10.0% ### ### ### Discount 10.0% Rate 11.0% 1,003.0 1,046.7 1,090.4 Rate 11.0% (WACC) 12.0% 965.5 1,007.3 1,049.1 (WACC) 12.0% Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate Terminal EBITDA Multiple 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x Discount 10.0% 1.0% 1.5% 1.9% Discount 10.0% Rate 11.0% 1.9% 2.4% 2.9% Rate 11.0% (WACC) 12.0% 2.8% 3.3% 3.8% (WACC) 12.0% DCF Analysis (2008-2012): Perpetuity Growth Metho Total Enterprise Value Terminal Perpetuity Growth Rate 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Discount 10.0% ### ### ### Discount 10.0% Rate 11.0% 1,103.6 1,158.0 1,220.1 Rate 11.0% (WACC) 12.0% 981.4 1,022.5 1,068.8 (WACC) 12.0% Implied Terminal EBITDA Multiple Terminal Perpetuity Growth Rate 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Discount 10.0% 9.9x 10.7x 11.6x Discount 10.0% Rate 11.0% 8.7x 9.3x 10.0x Rate 11.0% (WACC) 12.0% 7.7x 8.2x 8.7x (WACC) 12.0% (1) Assumes net debt of $83.4mm as of 5/16/08. (2) Assumes outstanding diluted shares of 35.021 million.

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Dcf Analysis (1)

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DCFUnlevered Free Cash Flow CalculationCalendar Year Ending December 31,CAGR2007A2008P2009P2010201120122008-2012EBIT$120.0$126.2$133.2$137.7$142.4$147.33.9%Plus: Non-deductible Goodwill Amort.- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0EBITA$120.0$126.2$133.2$137.7$142.4$147.33.9%Less: Provision for Taxes(42.0)(44.2)(46.6)(48.2)(49.9)(51.6)Unlevered Net Income$78.0$82.0$86.6$89.5$92.6$95.83.9%Plus: D&A (excl. non-deductible GW amort.)15.315.916.716.015.615.4Less: Capital Expenditures(18.0)(16.0)(14.1)(14.6)(15.1)(15.6)1.0516666667Less: Increase in Net Working Capital(9.5)8.33.13.23.33.41.0554675119Unlevered Free Cash Flow$65.8$90.2$92.3$94.2$96.4$99.02.3%1.0341394026Tax Rate35.0%DCF Analysis (2008-2012): EBITDA Multiple MethodNet Debt$83.4Shares35.021Total Enterprise ValueTotal Equity ValueTerminal EBITDA MultipleTerminal EBITDA Multiple7.5x8.0x8.5x7.5x8.0x8.5xDiscount10.0%$1,042.4$1,088.1$1,133.9Discount10.0%$959.0$1,004.7$1,050.5Rate11.0%1,003.01,046.71,090.4Rate11.0%919.6963.31,007.0(WACC)12.0%965.51,007.31,049.1(WACC)12.0%882.1923.9965.7Implied Perpetuity Growth RateTotal Price Per ShareTerminal EBITDA MultipleTerminal EBITDA Multiple7.5x8.0x8.5x7.5x8.0x8.5xDiscount10.0%1.0%1.5%1.9%Discount10.0%$27.38$28.69$30.00Rate11.0%1.9%2.4%2.9%Rate11.0%26.2627.5128.75(WACC)12.0%2.8%3.3%3.8%(WACC)12.0%25.1926.3827.58DCF Analysis (2008-2012): Perpetuity Growth MethodTotal Enterprise ValueTotal Equity ValueTerminal Perpetuity Growth RateTerminal Perpetuity Growth Rate3.0%3.5%4.0%3.0%3.5%4.0%Discount10.0%$1,260.8$1,335.1$1,421.7Discount10.0%$1,177.4$1,251.7$1,338.3Rate11.0%1,103.61,158.01,220.1Rate11.0%1,020.21,074.61,136.7(WACC)12.0%981.41,022.51,068.8(WACC)12.0%898.0939.1985.4Implied Terminal EBITDA MultipleTotal Price Per ShareTerminal Perpetuity Growth RateTerminal Perpetuity Growth Rate3.0%3.5%4.0%3.0%3.5%4.0%Discount10.0%9.9x10.7x11.6xDiscount10.0%$33.62$35.74$38.22Rate11.0%8.7x9.3x10.0xRate11.0%29.1330.6832.46(WACC)12.0%7.7x8.2x8.7x(WACC)12.0%25.6426.8228.14(1) Assumes net debt of $83.4mm as of 5/16/08.(2) Assumes outstanding diluted shares of 35.021 million.
Sheet1WACC2.07%G24.290%YearsFCFDiscount factorPV of FCF04.2915.331.0215.2226.631.0426.3638.241.0637.75410.241.0859.43512.721.10811.49
Sheet2PRODUCTCATEGORYMARKET SIZEPMZ -2010Rescucitation of hypovolemic shock$10 BillionPMZ-2010Postoperative pain$5.9 BillionPMZ-2123Diabetic ketoacidosis$0.8 BillionPMZ-1620Solid tumors$5.3 BillionPMZ-1620Neurovascular diseases$18 BillionTOTAL GLOBAL MARKET SIZE$40 Billion
Sheet3DCFMarket AssumptionIRF8%market risk premium2%YearNumberGr. RateFCFTerminal valueTotalPV201001.00%69.010069.010069.0100Equity Assumption201111.00%69.700169.700165.1405446702Beta1.78201221.00%70.397170.397161.4880533246Cost of Equity11.56%201331.00%71.101171.101158.0403605894MV of equity752.42201441.00%71.81211208.92421280.7363977.0834340746Firm Value1230.7624Debt AssumptionPre-tax cost of debt7.89%3.515Effective tax rate30%350.1457731604After tax cost fo debt5.52%MV of debt2323Firm AssumptionFirm Value3075.42Debt ot MV Ratio75.53%WACC7.00%Initial cash flow69.01Long term growth rate1.00%
Sheet4DCFMarket AssumptionIRF8%market risk premium2%YearNumberGr. RateFCFTerminal valueTotalPV201004.00%3546.53003546.53003546.5300Equity Assumption201114.00%3688.39123688.39123386.9524334252Beta0.45201224.00%3835.92683835.92683234.5551246668Cost of Equity8.90%201334.00%3989.36393989.36393089.0149950904MV of equity100475.93201444.00%4148.938588059.102492208.040965562.7672427359Firm Value78819.8198Debt AssumptionPre-tax cost of debt0.00%750Effective tax rate0%105.0930930612After tax cost fo debt0.00%MV of debt0Firm AssumptionFirm Value100475.93Debt ot MV Ratio0.00%WACC8.90%Initial cash flow3546.53Long term growth rate4.00%
Sheet5Co_NameYearInterest EarnedOther IncomeOperating ExpensesOperating ProfitProvisionsProvision for TaxesNet ProfitEPSEquityGross NPANet NPA(%)Gross NPA(%) Net NPABookvalueLatest Market PriceP/E52 WHATH52WLATLMCAPPunjab Natl.Bank20150311650.521805.1310252.963202.693834.19-938.06306.566.61370.9125694.8615396.56.554.06205.37149.19.03230.95279.98142.3727651.44Bank of Baroda20150310761.931295.469363.862693.531817.5277.68598.3510.79443.5616261.458069.493.721.89185.47169.711.04228.9228.9142.76.337529.09I O B2015035909.76944.275523.851330.18986.23308.4535.51.151235.3514922.459813.338.335.684289.95227.4539.854.255188.46Allahabad Bank2015034824.85565.864381.921008.79631.11175.05202.6314.19571.388357.975978.885.463.99211.05102.79.45150271.9590.3595868.06Andhra Bank2015034261.76437.43696.21002.96632.96184.76185.2412.29602.856876.543688.635.312.93148.5977.87.18109.4189.960.56.24587.17United Bank (I)2015032571.86581.262361.19791.93676.111.31104.524.98839.526552.914081.389.496.2225.78.4361.7515025.3523.452157.56Syndicate Bank2015035804.81794.325397.81201.33715.366.73416.9225.19662.066442.383843.653.131.9202.26106.54.63180180954.457050.93Vijaya Bank2014123033.61269.062952.14350.53308.394.7437.41.74859.122311.071476.12.921.8945.18.158.75115.3539.663874.63Dena Bank2014122671.11196.212547.42319.9241.332.0176.565.69537.824229.922928.545.613.9748.956.9294.4515146.64.62746.83Indian Bank2014123963.72357.753526.92794.54370.28146.74277.5223.88464.855461.053235.144.522.74249.19149.056.69224.25316.25114.559.957158.75Bank of Maha2014123154.93211.922747.58619.27580.14-18.1157.242.151063.186186.664265.446.654.7163.4337.410.0855.196.7534.1518.253976.3Oriental Bank2014124946.77512.024581.34877.45885.14-27.2519.562.61299.857669.225080.365.433.68196.355.24377.5545.5183.325.655887.55UCO Bank2014124787.59659.84022.261425.13907.54214303.5911.971014.719530.636051.466.54.2562.055.5115.6152.457.814.356674.05Canara Bank20141211051.661176.210430.561797.3841.33300655.9756.89461.2610573.577555.853.352.42531.32362.556.38498844.2273.141.8517228.27Central Bank2014126523.97508.736171.06861.64698.9725.02137.653.871421.5111792.56577.116.23.5892.73111.9531.18120.6212.145225.4318564.37IDBI Bank2014127158.8777.196822.181113.81956.2554.77102.792.561603.9612140.226027.595.943.05136.6670.8513.44116.4202.2558.4513.911364.04Union Bank (I)2014128043.76877.247455.661465.34851.92311302.4219.03635.78125967118.45.082.95271.89140.354.66259.65426.95129.7514.68923.16Bank of India20141210867.761079.6910082.071865.381580.72111.28173.3810.7964316693.6610061.34.072.5416.19206.255.9357589190.58.813713.74St Bk of India20141238546.185237.834489.519294.475234.911149.52910.0615.59746.5761991.4534468.744.92.8198.7276.0516.84336351.520813.21208865.17Co_NameSt Bk of IndiaOriental BankIDBI BankBank of BarodaCanara BankUCO BankUnion Bank (I)Dena BankCentral BankBank of MahaBank of IndiaAllahabad BankAndhra BankI O BIndian BankPunjab Natl.BankYear End[Latest]201412201412201412201503201412201412201412201412201412201412201412201503201503201503201412201503Interest Earned[Latest]38546.184946.777158.810761.9311051.664787.598043.762671.116523.973154.9310867.764824.854261.765909.763963.7211650.52Other Income[Latest]5237.8512.02777.191295.461176.2659.8877.24196.21508.73211.921079.69565.86437.4944.27357.751805.13Operating Expenses[Latest]34489.514581.346822.189363.8610430.564022.267455.662547.426171.062747.5810082.074381.923696.25523.853526.9210252.96Operating Profit Before Prov.ampCont.[Latest]9294.47877.451113.812693.531797.31425.131465.34319.9861.64619.271865.381008.791002.961330.18794.543202.69ProvisionsampContingencies[Latest]5234.91885.14956.251817.5841.33907.54851.92241.33698.97580.141580.72631.11632.96986.23370.283834.19Depreciation[Latest]0000000000000000Provision for Taxes[Latest]1149.5-27.2554.77277.683002143112.0125.02-18.11111.28175.05184.76308.45146.74-938.06Net Profit[Latest]2910.0619.56102.79598.35655.97303.59302.4276.56137.6557.24173.38202.63185.2435.5277.52306.56Calculated EPS (Adj) (Ann.) (Unit Curr.)[Latest]15.592.612.5610.7956.8911.9719.035.693.872.1510.7914.1912.291.1523.886.61Equity[Latest]746.57299.851603.96443.56461.261014.71635.78537.821421.511063.18643571.38602.851235.35464.85370.91Face Value[Latest]11010210101010101010101010102Gross Non Performing Assets[Latest]61991.457669.2212140.2216261.4510573.579530.63125964229.9211792.56186.6616693.668357.976876.5414922.455461.0525694.86Net Non Performing Assets[Latest]34468.745080.366027.598069.497555.856051.467118.42928.546577.114265.4410061.35978.883688.639813.333235.1415396.5(%) Gross Non Performing Assets[Latest]4.95.435.943.723.356.55.085.616.26.654.075.465.318.334.526.55(%) Net Non Performing Assets[Latest]2.83.683.051.892.424.252.953.973.584.712.53.992.935.682.744.06Latest EPS -Unit Curr.16.3937.465.2715.3756.8311.2830.157.073.593.7134.9310.8710.83022.2816.51Latest Bookvalue (cons.) -Unit Curr.198.7136.66185.47531.32271.8992.7363.43416.19211.05148.59249.19205.37Latest Market Price -Unit Curr.(NSE)276.05196.3570.85169.7362.5562.05140.3548.95111.9537.4206.25102.777.842149.05149.1Latest P/E Ratio(NSE)16.845.2413.4411.046.385.54.666.9231.1810.085.99.457.186.699.0352 Week High -Unit Curr.(NSE)336377.5116.4228.9498115.6259.6594.45120.655.1357150109.489.95224.25230.95All Time High -Unit Curr.(NSE)351.5545.5202.25228.9844.2152.4426.95151212.1496.75589271.95189.9227.45316.25279.9852 Week Low -Unit Curr.(NSE)208183.358.45142.7273.157.8129.7546.65234.15190.590.3560.539.85114.5142.3All Time Low -Unit Curr.(NSE)13.2125.6513.96.341.8514.3514.64.625.4318.258.896.24.2559.957Market Capitalisation(NSE)208865.175887.5511364.0437529.0917228.276674.058923.162746.8318564.373976.313713.745868.064587.175188.467158.7527651.4452 Week Low -Unit Curr.(NSE)208183.358.4551.55142.7273.1129.7546.65234.15190.590.3544.0560.539.6114.5
Sheet6Co_NameInterest EarnedOther IncomeProvisionsProvision for TaxeNet ProfitEPSGross NPANet NPA(%)GrossNPA(%) Net NPALatest BookvalueMarket PriceP/E52 Week High -Unit Curr.(NSE)All Time High -Unit Curr.(NSE)52 Week Low -Unit Curr.(NSE)All Time Low -Unit Curr.(NSE)Market Capitalisation(NSE)ICICI Bank12738.473496.2616234.731344.731448.51292218.00%20.1615094.696255.533.781.61149.49323.516.79393.4393.4256.44.15187646.53-21.61%Axis Bank9697.082687.3112384.39709.821122.472180.5917.61%36.84110.191316.711.340.44189.35551.117.78654.9654.9309.552.4130830.35-18.84%HDFC Bank13006.372563.7615570.13576.651338.392806.9118.03%44.793438.38896.280.90.2251.83990.324.311109.31109.37204.79248352.02-12.02%Kotak Mah. Bank2580.94668.143249.0866.94266.65527.1416.22%27.31237.23609.081.850.92243.471339.0565.451475.31475.3810.551.25122143.93-10.18%Federal Bank1908.283062214.2839.78148.84280.5312.67%13.11057.73373.272.040.7389.81135.0511.5154.4154.491.61.4411571.36-14.33%ING Vysya Bank1487.74205.561693.361.5172.9145.698.60%30.47764.01268.331.860.66363.47102730.381055.251055.2556825.5219719.13-2.75%IndusInd Bank2578.95658.483237.43107.44247.8495.2715.30%37.42562.92210.480.810.31819.6524.2967967488.68.543403.2-17.98%Lak. Vilas Bank570.94103.74674.6843.4929.9240.075.94%8.95454.62302.492.751.85104.7515.05111.4111.460.957.541876.77-6.35%Yes Bank3088.39590.443678.83126.36260.15550.9914.98%52.76313.487.720.410.12279.09844.3517.6908.95908.9543940.635293.53-7.65%DCB Bank378.8446.27425.1114.32-9.2662.9514.81%8.93186.07105.71.761.01123.3518.22127169.961.113.653481.44-2.96%Co_NameInterest EarnedOther IncomeProvisionsProvision for TaxesNet ProfitEPSGross NPANet NPA(%)Gross NPA(%) Net NPABookvalueLatest Market PriceP/E52 WHATH52WLATLMCAPPunjab Natl.Bank11650.521805.1313455.653834.19-938.06306.562.28%6.6125694.8615396.56.554.06205.37149.19.03230.95279.98142.3727651.44-54.90%Bank of Baroda10761.931295.4612057.391817.5277.68598.354.96%10.7916261.458069.493.721.89185.47169.711.04228.9228.9142.76.337529.09-34.89%I O B5909.76944.276854.03986.23308.4535.50.52%1.1514922.459813.338.335.684289.95227.4539.854.255188.46-114.17%Allahabad Bank4824.85565.865390.71631.11175.05202.633.76%14.198357.975978.885.463.99211.05102.79.45150271.9590.3595868.06-46.06%Andhra Bank4261.76437.44699.16632.96184.76185.243.94%12.296876.543688.635.312.93148.5977.87.18109.4189.960.56.24587.17-40.62%United Bank (I)2571.86581.263153.12676.111.31104.523.31%4.986552.914081.389.496.2225.78.4361.7515025.3523.452157.56-140.27%Syndicate Bank5804.81794.326599.13715.366.73416.926.32%25.196442.383843.653.131.9202.26106.54.63180180954.457050.93-69.01%ScreenerCo_CodeCo_NameDemand Deposits[Latest]Savings Deposit[Latest]Term Deposits[Latest]Deposits[Latest]Advances[Latest]11375St Bk of India113232.47485167.93796008.11394408.51209828.7287%42.91%75481United Bank (I)8076.6833154.2170278.82111509.7165767.5159%36.98%105539Central Bank13536.9966473.75160058.26240068.99177315.1774%33.33%135675Allahabad Bank9096.8650727.59131018.35190842.81138006.5772%31.35%65475UCO Bank25295.3433598.96140639.25199533.55149584.2175%29.52%85493Union Bank (I)22702.8465097.71209875.09297675.64229104.4377%29.50%95533Dena Bank6868.0724142.4279017.2110027.6977553.7770%28.18%176061Indian Bank7159.936900.65118214.27162274.82122208.9975%27.15%115638Syndicate Bank13967.9242029.64156345.74212343.3173912.4182%26.37%45456Bank of Baroda50050.3996437.44422406.56568894.39397005.8170%25.75%155955I O B14022.7443743.71170209.63227976.09175887.7777%25.34%145859Andhra Bank7493.1727692.78106659.18141845.12107644.276%24.81%55471Canara Bank17743.7985535.61317443.42420722.82301067.4872%24.55%24318Oriental Bank11881.8535160.62146446.49193488.96139079.8472%24.31%125654Bank of India21589.6187848.92367535.53476974.05370733.5478%22.94%35445Corporation Bank14836.4624478.45154078.1193393.01137086.371%20.33%166025Vijaya Bank5897.2516977.98101420.93124296.1681504.0366%18.40%55997.56