Larry Levin’s Larry Levin’s Blog: JobsBlog: Jobs

Again, we are back with the daily blogs of Again, we are back with the daily blogs of Larry LevinLarry Levin – a big name in the floor traders – a big name in the floor traders

to get supportive information around to get supportive information around day trading futuresday trading futures markets to help guide markets to help guide

our work. As you see the topic we will our work. As you see the topic we will discuss this time is a hot one: “Jobs”.discuss this time is a hot one: “Jobs”.

During the market’s QE3 During the market’s QE3 levitation act market participants levitation act market participants and politicians have been talking and politicians have been talking

a lot about jobs. Just wonder a lot about jobs. Just wonder where they are? Where have they where they are? Where have they

gone? Are they EVER coming gone? Are they EVER coming back? The president has been back? The president has been

talking about it too. He says he talking about it too. He says he has a plan of action regarding this has a plan of action regarding this

poor employment situation…poor employment situation…

… … and he’s going to tell us all and he’s going to tell us all about it right away when he gets about it right away when he gets back from vacationing and fund back from vacationing and fund

raising in Martha’s Vineyard. Yup, raising in Martha’s Vineyard. Yup, just as soon as his vacation is just as soon as his vacation is

over, we’ll get the big plan. I’m on over, we’ll get the big plan. I’m on pins and needles in anticipation.pins and needles in anticipation.

Weekly unemployment claims Weekly unemployment claims were released this morning. Once were released this morning. Once

again they were awful: it was again they were awful: it was another print north of 400k! The another print north of 400k! The report read “In the week ending report read “In the week ending

August 27, the advance figure for August 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims seasonally adjusted initial claims

was 409,000, a decrease of was 409,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week’s 12,000 from the previous week’s

revised figure of 421,000.revised figure of 421,000.

The 4-week moving average was The 4-week moving average was 410,250, an increase of 1,750 410,250, an increase of 1,750

from the previous week’s revised from the previous week’s revised average of 408,500.”average of 408,500.”

The ISM manufacturing data was The ISM manufacturing data was released after the open, which released after the open, which

was slightly better than expected, was slightly better than expected, but at 50.6 is still barely above but at 50.6 is still barely above

RECESSION levels. When looking RECESSION levels. When looking deeper into the details, one can deeper into the details, one can

see it suggests that the economy see it suggests that the economy may be in a recession now, or is may be in a recession now, or is damn sure getting there soon.damn sure getting there soon.

Talking about jobs, the ISM data is Talking about jobs, the ISM data is expected to affect Friday’s expected to affect Friday’s

monthly payroll number. To wit, monthly payroll number. To wit, Goldman Sachs said “ISM stronger Goldman Sachs said “ISM stronger than expected in August, although than expected in August, although

details of the report are softer details of the report are softer than the headline suggests…We than the headline suggests…We

are lowering our forecast for are lowering our forecast for tomorrow’s nonfarm payroll report tomorrow’s nonfarm payroll report

to +25k, from +50k previously.to +25k, from +50k previously.

The main reason is the The main reason is the accumulation of evidence of weak accumulation of evidence of weak

hiring in late July and August is hiring in late July and August is that a sharp deterioration in that a sharp deterioration in

perceptions of job availability in perceptions of job availability in the latest Conference Board the latest Conference Board survey, a drop in today’s ISM survey, a drop in today’s ISM manufacturing employment manufacturing employment index, another drop in job index, another drop in job

advertising, and a soft ADP report.advertising, and a soft ADP report.

Layoffs seem to have remained Layoffs seem to have remained low, given steady jobless claims in low, given steady jobless claims in the 410,000 range, though even the 410,000 range, though even here the recent pickup in layoff here the recent pickup in layoff announcements is a concern.”announcements is a concern.”

Hmm, it’s too bad the president’s Hmm, it’s too bad the president’s “jobs plan” isn’t important “jobs plan” isn’t important

enough for him to make the enough for him to make the speech before his vacation. Then speech before his vacation. Then again, perhaps it is good. Maybe again, perhaps it is good. Maybe

he shouldn’t have a “plan” on he shouldn’t have a “plan” on creating jobs at all. His current creating jobs at all. His current

record is terrible – like his backing record is terrible – like his backing of Solyndra, one of the so-called of Solyndra, one of the so-called

“green jobs of the future.”“green jobs of the future.”

Just last year the president made Just last year the president made a speech from the Solyndra a speech from the Solyndra

“green jobs” plant in California “green jobs” plant in California and announced his support for a and announced his support for a $535,000,000.00 loan guarantee. $535,000,000.00 loan guarantee.

That’s over HALF A BILLION That’s over HALF A BILLION DOLLARS – gone – in one year! DOLLARS – gone – in one year! Solyndra filed for bankruptcy!Solyndra filed for bankruptcy!

““The true engine of economic The true engine of economic growth will always be companies growth will always be companies like Solyndra.” – President Obamalike Solyndra.” – President Obama

“Companies like Solyndra are “Companies like Solyndra are leading the way toward a brighter leading the way toward a brighter

and more prosperous future.” – and more prosperous future.” – President ObamaPresident Obama

What’s more, Solyndra will layoff What’s more, Solyndra will layoff 1,100 employees. So what did we 1,100 employees. So what did we

have here? It is the president have here? It is the president picking a would-be winner in his picking a would-be winner in his

make believe “green jobs” make believe “green jobs” fantasy world, and saved or fantasy world, and saved or created (using the calculator created (using the calculator

here…) ~$486,000 PER JOB! And here…) ~$486,000 PER JOB! And in case you are poor with math in case you are poor with math

that is neither a saved nor a that is neither a saved nor a created job but rather a MASSIVE created job but rather a MASSIVE

loss to the taxpayer.loss to the taxpayer.

Another darling of the Obama Another darling of the Obama administration was Evergreen administration was Evergreen

Solar, and it too has recently filed Solar, and it too has recently filed for bankruptcy.for bankruptcy.

You know, the administration also You know, the administration also gave Seattle a $20-million grant gave Seattle a $20-million grant

for “green jobs” that only for “green jobs” that only produced 14 of them. And that produced 14 of them. And that

folks comes to a staggering folks comes to a staggering $1,428,571 PER JOB.$1,428,571 PER JOB.

On second thought, maybe On second thought, maybe president Obama should just stay president Obama should just stay in Martha’s Vineyard to hobnob in Martha’s Vineyard to hobnob with the wealthy and leave the with the wealthy and leave the

job production to someone else…job production to someone else…ANYONE else, if fact.ANYONE else, if fact.

Trade well and follow the trend, Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”not the so-called “experts.”

Behold the age of infinite moral Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 hazard! On April 2nd, 2009

CONgress forced FASB to suspend CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful rule 157 in favor of deceitful

accounting for the TBTF accounting for the TBTF banksters.banksters.