day 1 c2c - huawei- building the nbn for national ict
TRANSCRIPT
Building the NBN for National ICTJuly 19th 2016. Pretoria
Nigel Bruin
linkedin.com/in/nigelbruin
2
1st
3rd
2nd
Mechanization
Electrification
Automation
Internet of
Things
Industry applications based on Big Data
4thIntelligentization
+
Data Algorithm
Broadband = socio-economic development
1. Global Trend a
3
Fast-changing world
Electric EconomyConnected Cars Smart Vehicles
Autonomous vehicles
worth £51 billion / year
in social & economic
value by 2030
Jan – Mar 2016, 30%
of new cellular
connections were
cars
April 2016, Japan has
more electric
charging stations
than petrol stations
1. Global Trend b
Business Models
During Jan – Jun
2016, Uber completed
1billion rides
4
Connect 2020: Drive households BB fast-growing Households: 779M connected, 992M unconnected
10.7%
36.3%
40.3%
60.1%
60.0%
82.1%
6.7%
34.1%
46.4%
81.3%
Africa
APAC
Arab States
CIS
The Americas
Europe
LDCs
Developing
World
Developed
Percentage of households with Internet access
60%households
90%
rural
population
30%
ITU:
Connect 2020
Decrease
CO2
More than 300M households will be connected by 2020
148Countries with National Broadband Plans
About 1B Households are Unconnected
2. Connectivity Status
5
Africa
Internet in Africa: Demand vs. Supply
82.1
60
60.1
40.3
39
10.7
81.3
46.4
34.1
6.7
Europe
Americas
CIS
Arab States
Asia Pac.
Africa
Developed
World
Developing
LDCs
77.6
66
59.9
37
36.9
20.7
82.2
43.4
35.3
9.5
3. Connectivity in Africa
29.6
18
13.6
3.7
8.9
0.5
29
10.8
7.1
0.5
People using the Internet (%) Fixed BB Subscriptions (per 100 ppl)Households with Internet Access (%)
6
Africa’s generation opportunity
Voice Web Video
Connected Cars
Massive IoT
AR/VR
150Mbps
1Gbps
10Gbps
50ms
10ms
High Speed
Railway
Tele-operation
1ms
100B
30B
School
Hospital
Home
1 Gbps FTTH 10 Gbps FTTH TWDM PONADSLDial Up
2G 3G
4G
4.5G5G
4. Africa can skip technology
0 1
Deploy latest
gigabit access
7
5. Broadband as utility
Broadband embedded into National Strategies…
Verticals
+ Internet
Entertainment
Industry &
Manufacturing
Transportation
Banking
& Finance
e-Commerce
& Retail
Agriculture Smart Grid
Health
Education
Restaurant
&Travel
Internetization
42
85*
47
72
USA:Advanced Manufacturing
Brazil: “Branden Info Tech”Plan
China: National Broadband
Korea: K-ICT
MalaysiaSmart Country
44
71
Germany/EU: DAE2020
Nigeria: National Broadband Strategy
31
* Figures from GCI 2015 ( Global Connection Index)
ITU 2020 Target100%
50%
60%
40%
-- Infonetics Research
1Gbps
50Mbps (Common Cities)
(Developed Cities)1Gbps(50%)100Mbps
(VDF/etc.)
Giga Access Plan
Digital Europe 2020 China NBN 2020
National broadband plan or strategy
Households in developing world
Internet penetration in developing world
of the respondents plan to offer Gbps broadband access by
2017
8
Job Creation
10% increase in digitization
unemployment rate decrease 0.8%
Environmental
BB reduces greenhouse gas
emissions 5%
Reduce energy consumption and
business travel costs
GDP growth
For every 10% increase in digitization
GDP per capita increase by 0.6%
Better Lifestyle
Every 10% increase in digitization
Better Life Index increased 1.29%
National Competitiveness
For every 10% increase in digitization,
innovation index increases 6.4%
Smart
ICT
Source: Huawei Consulting Analysis
Pressure to build the Digital Economy
6. NBN benefits to economy, life
9
e-Public Services
Government
Convenient
e-Government
NBN Network e-Tourism
Government Hotline
e-Registration
Department Collaboration
Public Security
e-Educatione-Payment
e-Customs
e-Park
Emergency Command
Smart Traffic
Document Exchange Management
Civilian Service
Government e-Portal
e-Healthe-Taxation
e-Licensing
6. NBN benefits to economy, life
10
7. Government to lead NBN. High cost
Friendly Policy &
Regulations
Infrastructure
Synergy
Innovative
Tools & Solutions
£1.2B subsidy for rural BB
"Fiber from the home"20% Cost Saved
"From Burial to Aerial"
14% ODN CAPEX Saved
Road
Railway
Crude oil
Natural gas
Electricity
Motorway
8000 km Fiber Network
Product InnovationMini OLT, Dual mode ONT…
Engineering InnovationMicro-trench, Fibre Blown…
Management InnovationStandard Operating Procedure,
Subcontractor Training…
"Telco first“ as ICT new Target, break LLU in 76 cities
Investment
Stimulation
Cost
Reduction
Egypt
Grant new fixed licenseActivate stagnant market
Poland
Government Leadership
UK
China
Spain
11
Foundation
A
R
P
U
Values
Revenue Growth Engines & Key Concerns
8. Revenue growth engines & key concerns
2. Cloud 3.IoT
MBB
FBB Voice + Data>>>
Smart HomeSmart City
Experience
Cost
Concerns
Partnerships
12
CO ONT
Homes Connected
High Cost of Civil Works
FDT / Closure
Low Efficiency = Labor Cost
DP
Source: XXX FTTH project in Africa, 456USD / HP
Operator “T”
Only 6% HC Success Rate
Hard to enter the home
Lack of technician & useful tools
Non-standard Engineering Procedures
Homes Passed
9. Cost is key for deeper penetration (option a)
Managing costs is key to greater take-up
62.6%
26.0%
11.4%
Civil Works Project Management Materials
13
3~4km 2~3km
Low Density
Last Mile Rental
Land Privately Owned
Engineering Installation
Challenges to finish the last fibre mile
10. Challenge to finish the last mile
Rural / Semi-rural Scenarios
30
90
180
xDSL FTTx/VD FTTH
(days)
Time to DeployCommercial Viability of Coverage by Technology
Ne
t P
rese
nt V
alu
e (
NP
V)
(Eu
ros*0
00)
LTE FirstFTTx First
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Population Coverage
Cost to Deploy
FTTH FTTC
LTE
Government
Stimulus Point
14
Rural
Sub-urban
Dense Urban
Data Source: ITU
(Household
Density)
38.3% 36% 35% 26% 23.5% 14.4% 11.5% 11% 10% 4.5% 4% 2.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2%Norway Germany Canada Australia Italy China UAE Brazil Saudi Oman Algeria Sri Lanka Kuwait Philippines Indonesia India Cote d’lvoire Nigeria
Speed Up Subs Increase
Fast TTMShorten ROI
WTTx & FBB = Broadband Development
11. WTTx + FTTx = Broadband development
Philippine Globe: WTTx+ MBB CMCC Jilin: WTTx + MBB Canada Xplornet:WTTx in Rural Etisalat : FTTx + WTTx
Brazil SkyTv: WTTx for MSO Nigeria Swift: WTTx for ISP Greece Intracom: WTTx NBN Saudi STC: 4.5G in WTTx
Many Reference Cases
15
Policies: 6 proven ways to develop NBN
FAVOURED PPP MODEL
Attract Private Sector
Participation
STATE FUNDED SUBSIDY
Financial Subsidy on CAPEX
Investment.
Digital divide.
DEMAND STIMULUS
MEASURES
Promote Broadband Utilization
ENCOURAGE COST
REDUCTION
Network Sharing,
CLEAR BROADBAND
POLICIES
Guiding broadband Objectives
and NBN Rollout Plan
MANDATE OPEN ACCESS
State intervention to Promote
Competition
12. Policies. 6 proven ways to develop
Copyright©2016 Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
The information in this document may contain predictive statements including, without limitation, statements regarding the future financial and operating results,
future product portfolio, new technology, etc. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those
expressed or implied in the predictive statements. Therefore, such information is provided for reference purpose only and constitutes neither an offer nor an
acceptance. Huawei may change the information at any time without notice.
Nigel Bruin
linkedin.com/in/nigelbruin